Polymarket users reportedly threatened to kill an Israeli journalist after his coverage of an Iranian missile strike in Israel apparently jeopardised a number of big-money wagers.

On March 10 Emanuel Fabian, a reporter for the Times of Israel, covered an Iranian missile strike outside of the city of Beit Shemesh as the war between the US and Israel, and Iran raged on.  

However, Fabian revealed today that his coverage was met with a barrage of demands, threats, and misinformation from apparent Polymarket users.

The first email he received, written in Hebrew, asked him to change his report to state that the “missile” was instead a fragment from one of Israel’s missile interceptors.

The email claimed this was the finding of the Beit Shemesh municipality and Israel’s national medical emergency body. However, rather than retract is report, Fabian, doubled down, clarifying that, based on reports from the Israeli military and footage of the strike, the incident involved a missile warhead and not interceptor fragments. 

Read more: Nigel Farage aide George Cottrell bets US war will last four more months

He continued to receive emails and messages from Discord and WhatsApp users asking him to make the same correction.

Fabian then noticed that multiple X accounts involved with Polymarket gambling were replying to his posts with similar correction demands. 

He deduced that his harassers were trying to resolve a bet on Polymarket, with $14 million worth of volume, that asked if Iran would strike Israel on March 10.  

The respondents appeared desperate for the strike to be classified as fragments of an interceptor, as that would resolve the market to “No.”

Polymarket users threatened to kill Israeli journalist

Five days after the missile struck, the demands became more threatening. 

One WhatsApp user named “Haim” threatened to kill Fabian unless he changed his reporting, and repeatedly gave him correction deadlines. 

“After you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you,” one of Haim’s messages read.

Another said, “You are choosing to go to war knowing that you will lose your life as you’ve grown accustomed to it — for nothing.” 

Haim then began to list specific details related to Fabian’s family and home in another threat to his life.

Read more: Kalshi uses ‘death carve-out’ to avoid paying out on Ali Khamenei ousting

Shortly after Haim’s messages, someone posing as a lawyer rang Fabian and told him that he was now the subject of an investigation into his supposed Polymarket market manipulation. 

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Fabian ended the call and reported the situation to the police, who are now investigating his claims.

Fabian concerned journalists might be weak to Polymarket users

Fabian wrote, “The attempt by these gamblers to pressure me to change my reporting so that they would win their bet did not and will not succeed.” 

He worries, however, that “other journalists may not be as ethical if they are promised some of the winnings.” 

Indeed, he detailed how one of his colleagues from another publication was approached by someone asking him to encourage Fabian to change the details of the story. 

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Fabian informed them about the Polymarket bet, and his colleague confronted the individual, who admitted they’d placed a bet on Iran not being struck by Israel.

The confronted individual reportedly offered a cut of his winnings to Fabian’s colleague if they managed to convince Fabian to make the correction. 

At the time of writing, the Polymarket bet is still unresolved and is waiting for a final resolution from UMA, the platform’s oracle system which allows tokenholders to resolve disputes about various outcomes.

Read more: Are Polymarket and Kalshi decentralized?

It now has over $15 million in volume and has resolved to “Yes” twice in the past two resolutions.

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Prediction markets rife with insider trading

Fabian’s story offers a glimpse into the scale of insider trading on Polymarket and tactics employed by bettors to pressure people with the power to sway a market. 

Polymarket and Kalshi both host bets on the outcomes and potential for military action, as well as pop culture happenings and sports bets. 

Several large and timely bets made before military actions have prompted suspicions of rampant insider trading and leaking of confidential documents. 

Just last month, Israel’s government arrested one of its reserve soldiers and an associate of theirs in connection with a series of Polymarket bets that gambled on Israel striking Iran in 2025.

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The pair is suspected of using secret information to make the bets and, in the process, threaten the national security of Israel.

Protos has reached out to Fabian for comment and will update this piece should we hear anything back. 

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on X, Bluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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Trump says Iran war oil spike will ‘drop like a rolling stone’ once fighting ends, even as crude stays above $100 and crypto trades through the turmoil.

Trump is again trying to sell markets on the idea that the Iran war–driven oil spike is temporary, even as crude trades comfortably above the three‑digit threshold. In new comments flagged by Jinshi Finance, he told PBS reporters the US is “doing very well” on Iran, calling the budget impact of the conflict “negligible” because Tehran is “involved in terrorism.” He insisted that “once the war is over, oil prices will drop like a rolling stone,” echoing earlier statements that the surge in crude is a “small price to pay” for dismantling Iran’s nuclear program.

Trump also claimed he has deliberately held back from targeting key civilian energy infrastructure, saying he “left a lot of infrastructure in Tehran” and could destroy the country’s power plants “in an hour” but is trying to avoid a years‑long reconstruction process and deeper social trauma. He added that the US has kept a “100 yards” buffer around “everything related to oil facilities,” and specifically cited Kharg Island, a major Iranian export hub, saying he chose not to blow up its pipelines because “it would take years to connect them.” At the same time, he warned he would still “strike again,” signalling that escalation risk remains firmly on the table.​

Those comments follow days of market turmoil as Iran‑related supply fears pushed benchmark crude above 100 per barrel and forced insurers to reprice risk in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has repeatedly framed the situation as a trade‑off, arguing that short‑term pain at the pump is acceptable if it neutralizes Iran’s ability to threaten global shipping and regional stability. For now, that narrative appears to be holding with parts of his domestic base, but it does little to change the underlying reality for refiners, airlines, or import‑dependent economies that are now exposed to higher input costs and tighter margins.

Crypto markets, by contrast, are digesting the conflict with relative composure. Bitcoin (BTC) is changing hands near $73,800, up roughly 5.8% over the last 24 hours, with a 24‑hour range between about $69,460 and $73,770 and turnover above $55 billion. Ethereum trades around $2,200, higher by roughly 6.8% on the day, after swinging between about $2,042 and $2,200 in the same period. That mix of elevated volatility and net gains has reinforced the “digital macro hedge” narrative some funds are leaning into, even as skeptics point out that BTC and ETH continue to trade like high‑beta risk assets whenever energy, rates, or war headlines surprise.

Institutional spot ETF inflows and aggressive treasury buying are reinforcing Bitcoin’s “digital reserve” status while Ethereum grinds higher despite a bid for traditional safe havens.

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are quietly beating gold and global equities again, with institutional flows doing most of the heavy lifting. A recent note argues that BTC’s resilience through the Iran conflict underscores a structural shift in ownership, with spot ETFs and balance‑sheet buyers now dominating the float. Analysts quoted in the report say Bitcoin and Ethereum have outperformed gold and broad stock indices this year, even as geopolitical risk and higher oil prices would typically favor bullion.

The same commentary highlights one listed software company, widely understood to be MicroStrategy, as acting like the “last central bank of Bitcoin.” According to Jinshi’s summary, the firm has added 22,337 BTC at an average price near $70,194, taking its total stash to 761,068 BTC with a blended cost basis around $75,696. That is functionally a monetary reserve strategy rather than a conventional treasury allocation, and it concentrates a non‑trivial share of free‑floating supply inside a single corporate vehicle.​

At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen roughly $2.1 billion in net inflows over the past three weeks, equal to about 6.1% of new available supply, even as retail investors have been net sellers. Jinshi’s recap notes that around 60% of outstanding BTC has not moved on‑chain for a year, a classic sign of long‑term holder conviction and a constraint on tradable float. That lock‑up effect is part of why each marginal dollar into a spot product, or a corporate treasury like MicroStrategy’s, can have an outsized impact on price compared with prior cycles.

Crypto markets are reflecting that dynamic in real time. Bitcoin is trading near $73,800, up about 5.8% over the last 24 hours, after moving between roughly $69,460 and $73,770 on volume above $55 billion. Ethereum sits around $2,201, higher by roughly 6.8% on the day, with a 24‑hour range between about $2,042 and $2,200 and turnover close to $27.8 billion. Those moves come as gold ETF products continue to leak assets, with one recent data set showing multi‑billion‑dollar outflows from the yellow metal even as Bitcoin funds attracted fresh capital after the Iran shock.

Lido’s new IDVTC design lets verified solo stakers form DVT clusters, slashing collateral needs while hardening Ethereum validator risk and sustaining staking yields.

Under the plan, each IDVTC cluster consists of four independent community stakers, all running validators via Obol or SSV with keys created through distributed key generation (DKG). In practice, that means no single operator can take a validator down, mis‑configure a client, or disappear without the rest of the cluster absorbing the shock. Distributed validator technology (DVT) spreads duties and key shares across multiple nodes, so slashing and downtime events become outliers instead of structural risk.​

Because the risk profile improves, Lido can justify lowering collateral requirements for these operators. That is the capital-efficiency play: you move from over‑collateralized, quasi‑professional setups to leaner independent operators whose main constraint is competence, not balance sheet size. For Lido, this broadens the operator base without opening the door to pure anon fly‑by‑night nodes, since IDVTC membership is restricted to verified Independent Community Stakers (ICS) who pass onboarding checks.​

Timing matters. The IDVTC feature is targeted for launch with CSM v3 in Q2–Q3 2026, squarely into the next phase of Ethereum’s staking cycle and a more competitive liquid staking market. Restaking, AVSs and competing LSTs are already bidding for the same underlying validator set. Bring down collateral, keep slashing risk contained, and you have a better story for decentralization and yield sustainability than “more TVL, same handful of operators.”​

If executed, IDVTC pushes Lido closer to a model where independent stakers look more like a distributed credit book: risk‑tiered, clustered, and modular. For investors, the signal is simple: Lido is trying to buy resilience and decentralization with better engineering instead of higher issuance. In a market where basis trades and ETF flows are already compressing staking spreads, that is the only credible way to keep the yield machine running without blowing up the tail risk.

Key points:

• Sellers will attempt to halt the recovery at $74,508, but if buyers bulldoze their way through, the rally may reach $84,000. 

• Select major altcoins have risen above their overhead resistance levels, signaling solid demand at lower levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to $74,508 on Monday, a level that is a key near-term resistance. Crypto sentiment platform Santiment said in a recent report that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have started accumulating, which in the past was a bullish sign.

US spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also attracted investors, recording five straight days of inflows last week. Bernstein said in a Monday research note shared with Cointelegraph that sustained inflows into BTC ETFs and steady corporate buying by companies such as Strategy have strengthened BTC’s long-term holder base, contributing to a more stable market structure during periods of stress.

BTC is showing signs of a trend reversal, but the bears are unlikely to give up easily. Higher levels are likely to attract sellers who will attempt to trap the aggressive bulls. Material Indicators cofounder Keith Alan said in a video analysis that BTC is still in a bear market, and the price may retest the support near $60,000. 

Could buyers sustain BTC and major altcoins above their resistance levels? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out. 

S&P 500 Index price prediction

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) turned down from the 20-day exponential moving average (6,799) on Tuesday, indicating a negative sentiment.

The index may reach the 6,550 level, which is a crucial level to watch out for. If the price rebounds off the 6,550 level with force, the index may reach the 20-day EMA, where the bears are expected to step in. If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the likelihood of a break below the 6,550 level increases. The correction may then deepen to the 6,350 level.

On the contrary, a close above the moving averages suggests that the index may remain inside the 6,550 to 7,002 range for a while longer.

US Dollar Index price prediction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached the 100.54 resistance on Friday, which is a critical level to watch out for.

The upsloping 20-day EMA (98.76) and the RSI near the overbought zone suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers thrust the price above the 100.54 level, the index might start a new uptrend to the 102 level and later to the 103.54 level.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down sharply from the current level and breaks below the moving averages, it suggests that the index may remain inside the 95.50 to 100.54 range for some more time.

Bitcoin price prediction

BTC continued its upward march and reached the $74,508 resistance, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.

The 20-day EMA ($70,028) has started to turn up, and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that the buyers are attempting to take charge. A close above the $74,508 level will complete a bullish ascending triangle pattern, opening the gates for a rally to $84,000. Such a move suggests that the downtrend may be over.

Sellers will have to pull the BTC price below the moving averages to weaken the bulls. The BTC/USDT pair may then slump to the support line. A close below the support line tilts the advantage back in favor of the bears.

Ether price prediction

Ether’s (ETH) consolidation between $1,750 and $2,111 resolved to the upside with a breakout on Sunday.

The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover, and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that buyers are back in the game. The ETH price may rally to $2,600 and then to $3,450. Such a move suggests that the ETH/USDT pair may have bottomed out at $1,747.

The 20-day EMA ($2,072) is the vital support to watch out for on the downside. A close below the 20-day EMA signals that the bears are active at higher levels. The pair may then tumble to $1,916.

BNB price prediction

BNB (BNB) closed above the $670 resistance on Sunday, but the bulls are struggling to sustain the higher levels.

The 20-day EMA ($646) is the critical support to watch out for on the downside. If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA with strength, the BNB/USDT pair may rally to $730 and subsequently to $790.

This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the BNB price continues lower and breaks below the 20-day EMA. That may keep the pair range-bound between $570 and $670 for a while longer.

XRP price prediction

XRP (XRP) has risen above the 50-day simple moving average ($1.46), indicating sustained buying by the bulls.

If the XRP price closes above the 50-day SMA, the next stop is likely to be the breakdown level of $1.61. If the price turns down from $1.61 but finds support at the 20-day EMA ($1.41), it suggests a bullish sentiment. The XRP/USDT pair may then climb to the downtrend line.

On the contrary, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it signals that the bears are selling on minor rallies. That may retain the price inside the descending channel pattern.

Solana price prediction

Solana (SOL) has reached the breakdown level of $95, which is a critical overhead resistance to keep an eye on.

If buyers overcome the barrier, the SOL/USDT pair may surge to $117. Sellers are expected to pose a substantial challenge at $117, but on the way down, if the bulls maintain the SOL price above $95, it suggests a positive sentiment. That increases the possibility of a rally to $147.

Instead, if the price turns down sharply from the current level and breaks below the 20-day EMA ($87), it suggests that the pair may extend its stay inside the $76 to $95 range for some more time.

Related: Bitcoin hits $74.4K six-week high as analysts see ‘more upside’ for BTC

Dogecoin price prediction

Dogecoin (DOGE) has risen above the 50-day SMA ($0.10), indicating that the bears are losing their grip.

The DOGE/USDT pair may rally to the breakdown level of $0.12, where the bears are expected to sell aggressively. If the DOGE price turns down sharply from $0.12, it points to a possible range formation. The pair may swing between $0.09 and $0.12 for a few days.

On the other hand, a break and close above the $0.12 resistance signals that the bulls are back in the driver’s seat. That clears the path for a rally to the $0.16 level, which is expected to behave as a stiff resistance.

Cardano price prediction

Cardano (ADA) has surged above the 50-day SMA ($0.28), indicating that the bulls are attempting a comeback.

The bears are expected to vigorously defend the downtrend line, but if the bulls prevail, the ADA/USDT pair may signal a short-term trend change. The ADA price may rally to $0.37 and then to $0.44.

Contrarily, if the price turns down sharply from the downtrend line and breaks below the moving averages, it suggests that the pair may continue to oscillate inside the channel for a few more days.

Hyperliquid price prediction

Sellers attempted to pull Hyperliquid (HYPE) back below the breakout level of $36.77 on Sunday, but the bulls held their ground.

That suggests the bulls are striving to flip the $36.77 level into support. If they manage to do that, the HYPE/USDT pair may ascend to $43 and then to $50. 

The first support on the downside is at $36.77 and then at the 20-day EMA ($33.95). Sellers will have to tug the HYPE price below the 50-day SMA ($31.56) to suggest that the market has rejected the breakout above $36.77. The pair may then plummet to $29.