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Bitwise CIO cites ‘the four-year cycle’ for losses

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'People are looking for one thing to blame for the current retracement in bitcoin. But there is not any one thing to blame,' says Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan
'People are looking for one thing to blame for the current retracement in bitcoin. But there is not any one thing to blame,' says Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan

A multibillion-dollar crypto asset manager cites several reasons for the bitcoin plunge, but he’s listing “the four-year cycle” as the No. 1 downward catalyst.

According to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, it’s a phenomenon that’s happened three other times in the crypto market.

“People are looking for one thing to blame for the current retracement in bitcoin. But there is not any one thing to blame,” he told “ETF Edge” on Monday.

Hougan contends investors have been favoring other hot investments including gold and artificial intelligence stocks over cryptocurrencies, too.

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“There is some quantum risk. There is fear of [Fed nominee] Kevin Warsh,” he said. “In bear markets, all these things are amplified.”

When he was on “ETF Edge” last November, bitcoin had fallen below the $90,000 mark for the first time since April. Its record high of $126,279 was hit in October.

Crypto ETF disruption?

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Crypto World

Goldman Sachs Takes Lead With $153.8M in XRP ETFs

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • Goldman Sachs disclosed a $153.8 million position in spot XRP ETFs in its Q4 2025 13F filing.
  • The bank holds about 73% of the $211 million reported by the top 30 institutional investors.
  • Goldman Sachs spread its XRP ETF exposure across four issuers to diversify allocation.
  • Spot XRP ETFs have attracted $1.4 billion in net inflows since launching in November 2025.
  • Total assets under management for XRP ETFs reached $1.44 billion by early March 2026.

Goldman Sachs has disclosed a $153.8 million position in spot XRP ETFs in its Q4 2025 13F filing. The bank now holds about 73% of the $211 million reported by the top 30 institutions. The filing places Goldman Sachs at the forefront of institutional exposure in the newly launched XRP ETF market.

Goldman Sachs Builds $154 Million Position Across XRP ETFs

Goldman Sachs allocated its XRP ETFs exposure across four separate issuers instead of a single fund. The bank reported about $40 million in the Bitwise XRP ETF and $38 million each in the Franklin XRP Trust and Grayscale XRP ETF. It also disclosed roughly $36 million in the 21Shares XRP ETF.

This structure shows a diversified allocation within the same asset class. The XRP position forms part of a wider $2.3 billion crypto ETF portfolio. That portfolio includes $1.1 billion in Bitcoin ETFs and $1 billion in Ethereum ETFs.

Millennium Management ranked second with $23.1 million in disclosed XRP ETF holdings. However, its position is less than one-sixth of Goldman Sachs’ exposure. As a result, Goldman holds the dominant institutional share based on current filings.

XRP ETFs Record $1.4 Billion Inflows Since Launch

Spot XRP ETFs began trading in November 2025 after the SEC resolved its lawsuit against Ripple in August. Since launch, the funds have attracted $1.4 billion in net inflows. Total assets under management reached $1.44 billion by early March 2026.

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The ETFs recorded net outflows on only nine trading days during that period. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said, “About 84% of XRP ETF assets sit with retail investors.” Eric Balchunas also stated that most holders fall below the 13F reporting threshold.

Standard Chartered revised its XRP price target to $2.80. The bank’s forecast implies close to 100% upside from recent levels. Broader institutional estimates place year-end 2026 projections between $3.00 and $8.00.

Prediction markets currently assign a 67% probability that XRP closes above $1.50 by late March 2026. On the infrastructure side, Binance integrated Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin on the XRP Ledger. The RLUSD stablecoin now carries a market capitalization of $1.59 billion.

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Banks, including SBI Holdings, Santander, and PNC, continue using XRP for cross-border settlements. Monthly transaction flows through these channels exceed $15 billion, according to reported figures. These developments follow the ETF launch and reflect ongoing activity across the XRP ecosystem.

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Bitcoin Sees Modest Relief as US CPI Inflation Avoids Surprises

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Bitcoin Sees Modest Relief as US CPI Inflation Avoids Surprises

Bitcoin (BTC) broke back above $70,000 around Wednesday’s Wall Street open as US inflation data soothed anxious markets.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin bounces around a narrow range as US inflation data offers a modest tailwind.

  • Oil prices stay lower as an emergency release of 400 million barrels is confirmed.

  • BTC price expectations focus on future liquidations in the mid-$60,000 zone.

Bitcoin edges higher as CPI matches expectations

Data from TradingView showed BTC price action eking out modest gains, while failing to match local highs from the day prior.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The February print of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was in line with expectations at 2.4% year-on-year, per data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). 

“Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment,” it confirmed in an official statement.

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US CPI 12-month % change. Source: BLS

This was a relief for risk assets already on edge over geopolitical instability and its potential impact on inflation. The Middle East conflict and global oil supply squeeze, however, were likely only to be truly reflected in March’s inflation data.

“The market will now await March’s data,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter thus wrote in a response on X.

Other recent inflation gauges missed anticipated levels both to the upside and downside, making for a shaky overall picture of inflationary forces even before events in Iran.

Oil, a key risk factor for CPI going forward, stayed below the $90 mark on the day as the International Energy Agency (IEA) approved the emergency release of 400 million barrels — the largest such release ever recorded. 

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Trader eyes BTC price “breakout upwards” in March

With price still rangebound, Bitcoin market participants chose not to bet big up or down.

Related: Bitcoin faces ‘highly volatile’ setup as bulls eye return to $80K by month-end

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“Very simple; buy the lower bounds, sell the higher bounds,” trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe told X followers. 

“I still think we’ll see that breakout upwards in this month to test higher grounds, but if not, I’m a buyer on lower levels.”

BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Trader Lennaert Snyder eyed downside liquidity for a potential local low, suggesting that this could come at around $65,000.

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass put 24-hour crypto market liquidations at $240 million, with short positions accounting for a larger slice of the total.

Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass