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Bitwise wants to list prediction markets ETFs for U.S. elections in 2026 and 2028

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Bitwise argues crypto is near the end of a brutal winter

Bitwise Asset Management wants to offer a prediction markets for the next U.S. presidential election through exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Under “Prediction Shares” branding, the San Francisco-based crypto asset manager filed to list two ETFs tracking prediction markets betting on the outcome of the 2028 election — one for a Democratic winner, one for Republican — with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Tuesday.

Bitwise also listed four equivalent products for 2026 mid-terms, predicting Democratic and Republican wins in the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Each ETFs will invest their assets in prediction markets bets supporting the applicable outcome denoted by that fund.

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The same way that a bitcoin ETF allows investors to invest in BTC without purchasing the underlying cryptocurrency, these ETFs will allow users to bet on the outcome of U.S. elections without using a prediction platform like Polymarket.

Prediction markets came to prominence during the last U.S. election and now process trading volumes of around $10 billion monthly.

With ETFs also having opened the door to crypto investment for a wider array of prospective investors including institutions, Bitwise appears to trying to replicate this model for prediction markets, with the 2026 mid-terms as its testbed.

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Crypto World

ETHZilla struggles to find footing as Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund exits

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ETHZilla struggles to find footing as Peter Thiel's Founders Fund exits - 1

ETHZilla Corp (ETHZ) shares faced intense pressure in pre-market trading this Wednesday following news that billionaire investor Peter Thiel and his venture firm, Founders Fund, have completely liquidated their position.

Summary

  • An SEC filing revealed that Peter Thiel and Founders Fund have completely liquidated their 7.5% stake in Ethzilla (ETHZ), triggering a 5.13% pre-market drop to $3.33.
  • Originally a biotech firm (180 Life Sciences), Ethzilla’s high-leverage pivot to a “corporate Ethereum treasury” model has faltered, with the stock currently down 97% from its 2025 highs.
  • Amidst heavy debt and market volatility, the company is attempting to stabilize by pivoting again, this time toward tokenizing jet engines and home loans, though investor confidence remains shaken.

The Thiel exodus: Founders Fund liquidates stake in ETHZilla

The stock, which has already plummeted over 97% from its 2025 highs, hit a pre-market low of $3.33, representing a 5.13% drop from its previous close.

ETHZilla struggles to find footing as Peter Thiel's Founders Fund exits - 1
ETHzilla price performance | Source: Google Finance

The sell-off was triggered by a late Tuesday SEC filing revealing that Thiel’s entities now hold zero shares in the company. This marks a dramatic reversal from August 2025, when the fund disclosed a significant 7.5% stake.

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At the time, Thiel’s entry was seen as a massive vote of confidence for ETHZilla’s pivot from biotechnology to a corporate Ethereum (ETH) treasury model.

The massive sell-off marks a dramatic fall from grace for the firm, which rebranded from 180 Life Sciences last year to become a high-leverage Ethereum treasury. While the initial pivot drew over $425 million in institutional backing, the recent liquidation of its ETH holdings has left investors questioning the sustainability of its ‘crypto-first’ balance sheet.

Crisis in the ETH treasury model

The full exit by Founders Fund underscores the growing skepticism surrounding companies that use high-leverage strategies to accumulate Ethereum. While similar “Bitcoin treasury” plays have remained popular, Ether-focused firms like ETHZilla have struggled under the weight of market volatility and debt obligations.

ETHZilla has recently attempted to diversify its business to stabilize its balance sheet. Recent moves include:

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  • Asset Tokenization: Launching “ETHZilla Aerospace” to tokenize leased jet engines.
  • Debt Repayment: Liquidating over 24,000 ETH in late 2025 to settle convertible bond obligations.
  • Real Estate: Acquiring modular home loan portfolios for on-chain yields.

Despite these efforts to pivot toward Real World Assets (RWA), the market appears focused on the loss of its most prominent institutional backer. For many investors, Thiel’s departure signals that the “Saylor-style” accumulation strategy for Ethereum may be facing a structural breakdown.

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Arthur Hayes Predicts AI Banking Crisis And Bitcoin Surge

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Arthur Hayes Predicts AI Banking Crisis And Bitcoin Surge

The divergence between Bitcoin and tech stocks is a warning sign of a potential artificial intelligence-driven credit crisis that could lead to more central bank money printing, says Arthur Hayes. 

“Bitcoin is the global fiat liquidity fire alarm. It is the most responsive freely traded asset to the fiat credit supply,” said the crypto entrepreneur in his latest blog post on Wednesday.

Hayes went on to caution that the recent divergence between Bitcoin (BTC) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index “sounds the alarm that a massive credit destruction event is nigh.”

When these two previously correlated asset classes diverge, “it warrants further investigation into any trigger that could cause a destruction of fiat” — mostly dollars and credit, which is also known as deflation, he said. 

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Hayes believes that job losses due to AI adoption will have a major impact on consumer credit and mortgage debt “because of the inability of white-collar knowledge worker debt donkeys to meet their monthly payments.”

“That’s a bold statement to call for a financial crisis because of job losses caused by AI adoption.”

AI job losses could trigger another banking crisis 

In 2025, companies cited AI when announcing 55,000 job cuts, more than 12 times the number of layoffs attributed to AI just two years earlier, reported CBS News in early February. 

“This AI financial crisis will restart the money printing machine for realz,” said Hayes. 

His loose model suggests that a 20% reduction in the 72 million “knowledge workers” in the US could produce around $557 billion in consumer credit and mortgage losses, representing a 13% write-down of US commercial bank equity.

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Predicted losses assuming a 20% AI job loss. Source: Maelstrom

Hayes speculates that weaker regional banks would buckle first, depositors would flee, and credit markets would seize. The Federal Reserve would eventually panic and start printing money. 

“While the Fed is fighting windmills, AI-related job losses will destroy the balance sheets of American banks,” he said. 

“Finally, the monetary mandarins panic and press that Brrrr button harder than I shred pow the morning after a one-meter dump.”

Related: 1 in 4 CEOs expect to sack staff due to AI this year

Hayes predicted that this surge in fiat credit creation would “pump Bitcoin decisively off its lows,” and that the future expectation of increased fiat creation to save the banking system would “propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high.”

In addition to Bitcoin, Hayes said there are two altcoins that his company, Maelstrom, will “deploy excess stables into once the Fed blinks.” Those coins are Zcash (ZEC) and Hyperliquid (HYPE). 

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More money-printing theories abound 

However, this is not the first radical money-printing thesis Hayes has proposed.

In January, he said that the Federal Reserve would print money to alleviate the Japanese bond crisis. 

In December 2025, he predicted that BTC would surge to $200,000 by March due to money printing through a new Fed liquidity tool called Reserve Management Purchases, which resembles quantitative easing. 

Magazine: Chinese New Year boosts interest, TradFi buying crypto exchanges: Asia Express

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