Crypto World
BloFin Research: Bitcoin’s Sharp Fall Is on Schedule, Not Off the Rails
Bitcoin’s sharp fall is following the four-year cycle’s depth, slope, and timing; the selling from ETFs and Strategy and the mega-IPO liquidity drain are this cycle’s triggers, but the decline is on schedule.
- Bitcoin’s roughly 50% decline from the October 2025 peak is still in line with prior cycle behavior by depth, slope, and timing. Prior cycle lows followed about 12 months after the peak, and the current setup points to a Q4 2026 low window.
- ETF outflows and Strategy’s first Bitcoin sale in four years confirms both institutional bids behave as allocation capital rather than permanent holders.
- SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic listings could pull risk capital away from crypto through mid-to-late 2026. After IPO lockups begin to expire, newly liquid employees and investors may recycle wealth into higher-beta assets, creating a potential liquidity tailwind for Bitcoin as the next cycle begins.
The Four-Year Cycle Framework
Bitcoin has moved in a four-year pattern since its first traded cycle. Peaks have arrived in late 2013, late 2017, late 2021, and late 2025. Troughs have followed roughly twelve months later: January 2015, December 2018, November 2022. The pattern has held across three complete cycles regardless of the prevailing narrative, retail-driven in 2017, institutional-curious in 2021, ETF-enabled & Bitcoin treasury companies in 2025.
Each cycle is anchored by the halving, which compresses new supply on a fixed schedule, and amplified by reflexive demand: rising price draws marginal capital, marginal capital lifts price further, leverage builds, and the structure eventually breaks. The unwind takes roughly a year. Terminal lows have arrived in Q4 of the year following the peak.
The post-ETF, post-corporate-treasury era was meant to break this pattern. Spot ETF approvals in January 2024 and Strategy’s aggressive accumulation through 2024–2025 introduced two persistent institutional bids that were expected to absorb cyclical selling and compress the drawdown.
Cycle
Peak
Trough
Time peak→trough
Peak-to-trough decline
1
November 2013
January 2015
~14 months
85%
2
December 2017
December 2018
~12 months
84%
3
November 2021
November 2022
~12 months
77%
4 (current)
October 2025
TBD (Q4 2026 base case)
–
50% (current)
The Decline Sits Mid-Pattern by Magnitude
The 50% selloff is shallow relative to the 77–85% distribution of prior cycle declines. Measured against time elapsed at the 7-month mark from peak, the current decline tracks prior periods closely:
Cycle
Drawdown 7 Months After Peak
Final Drawdown
2017–2018
Around −65%
−84%
2021–2022
Around −65%
−77%
2025–Present
50%
TBD
If the four-year template holds, current price sits closer to the midpoint than the terminus.
Source: https://www.bitcoincyclescomparison.com/
The Slope Matches Prior Four-Year Templates
The shape of the move may be more informative than the depth. The current sequence, a sharp post-peak selloff, multi-month consolidation, a spring rally into the 200-day moving average, and subsequent rejection, closely resembles the pattern observed during Bitcoin’s 2018 and 2022 bear-market rallies.
Bitcoin 2018 Price
Bitcoin 2022 Price
What’s Draining the Bid?
There are several potential explanations for the current sharp selloff.
Strategy made a wrong move
Strategy sold 32 bitcoin between May 26 and May 31, its first net disposal in four years. At $2.5 million the sale is immaterial.
The decision now looks like a huge mistake. A firm that genuinely needed to fund an ongoing obligation through Bitcoin sales would sell size quietly and raise real cash before the market repriced its intent. Selling a tiny token amount and announcing it does the reverse: it signals that the largest corporate holder is now a seller and invites everyone in the market to front-run the next sale.
A mega-IPO cycle is pulling risk capital
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are set to raise more than $240 billion combined from June through year-end, a capital pull larger than every venture-backed US IPO since 2000 combined. SpaceX’s roadshow opens June 4, with pricing June 11 and first Nasdaq trading June 12, targeting a $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation, of which roughly $22 billion is reserved for retail.
As we put in our March article:
The AI mega-IPO cycle creates a near-term liquidity headwind for Bitcoin via ETF flow compression, but reverses into a tailwind post-lockup, as newly liquid employees and insiders with above-average Bitcoin & Crypto appetite.
Related Reading: The $197 Billion Question: How the Mega IPO Wave Reshapes Capital Markets & Crypto
Spot ETFs flipped to net redemption
The May outflow was roughly ten times February’s $206 million redemption, suggesting institutions are derisking faster than price weakness alone would suggest. The reversal tracks the allocator behavior the IPO calendar predicts: freeing balance-sheet room ahead of a crowded equity supply.
Forward Implication: Cycle-Consistent Low Meets the IPO Calendar
Every prior cycle has bottomed in the same seasonal window. The 2018 low formed in December, the 2022 low in November. The four-year clock does not predict the price of the low. It predicts the timing: Q4 of the year following the peak. With the October 2025 top in place, that points to Q4 2026.
That timing now overlaps with an unusually large IPO calendar. The key macro implication is a two-step liquidity sequence: absorption first, release later. In the first phase, public-market capital is pulled toward mega-listings. That creates a plausible drain on marginal risk capital at the same time Bitcoin is moving through the cycle-consistent low window.
SpaceX is the clearest example. Its June IPO would absorb a large amount of risk capital upfront, while its phased lock-up schedule begins releasing insider liquidity through the second half of 2026, with broader liquidity available around the 180-day mark in December. That places the unlock-driven wealth-recycling phase almost directly on top of Bitcoin’s Q4 cycle-low window.
OpenAI and Anthropic extend the same logic. Their listings would draw capital into the IPO calendar first, while their eventual lock-up expirations would push additional liquidity into 2027. By then, the initial IPO demand has likely been absorbed, early gains may begin to cool, and newly liquid employees and venture investors can start reallocating into other high-beta assets.
Disclaimer: The information provided herein does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice, and should not be treated as such. All content set out below is for informational purposes only.
The post BloFin Research: Bitcoin’s Sharp Fall Is on Schedule, Not Off the Rails appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Russia’s FSB says Telegram founder Pavel Durov faces a terrorism-related charge and an international arrest warrant, while a separate French case remains open.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded four straight sessions of outflows totaling $526 million as Bitcoin faced renewed selling pressure after failing to hold $65,000.
Crypto World
The Most Unpredictable FOMC Meeting in Years Is Here: What Bitcoin Investors Should Know
The United States Federal Reserve will announce its interest-rate decision later today, but, unlike essentially every meeting in the past six years, markets remain divided over what comes next.
Bitcoin investors seemingly de-risked yesterday in what appeared to be a blatant sell-off ahead of the key event. The question now is what follows.
Why So Much Unpredictability Now
The Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day meeting on July 28 and will publish its decision at 2:00 p.m. ET today. Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference will follow approximately 30 minutes later, in which investors will seek clues for what the central bank’s policy will be for the remainder of 2026.
The current benchmark rate stands between 3.50% and 3.75%. Although most experts still believe it will be left unchanged, futures markets recently assigned a probability of up to 38% to a surprise 25-basis-point hike. According to the analyst at the Kobeissi Letter, these expectations are among the most divided in recent history.
They explained that nearly every Fed meeting since the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 entered decision day with roughly 99% agreement about the outcome. The situation now is different for the first time in over six years, given the aforementioned odds on futures markets and prediction platforms.
The uncertainty partly stems from Warsh’s decision to reduce the central bank’s reliance on forward guidance. Minutes from the June meeting showed that policymakers discussed shortening the Fed’s statement and removing language indicating the likely direction of the next move. Warsh’s approach is expected to preserve flexibility, but it has also left traders without the clear policy signals they became accustomed to under Jerome Powell.
Change or No Change
The Kobeissi Letter analysts said they believe the Fed will leave rates unchanged. A recent Reuters survey of over 100 forecasters reached the same conclusion, with more than three-quarters predicting no policy shift until the end of the year. ING economists shared the same opinion.
One of the reasons for this is the softer-than-expected inflation data for June. The labor market has also shown signs of weakening, giving the Fed another reason not to tighten financial conditions further.
There’s also the opposite side of the coin, though, as some experts believe the central bank might lose credibility if it waits too long. Inflation remains well above the 2% target, while renewed geopolitical tension, tariffs, and energy-market instability could push prices higher again.
Several Fed officials have reportedly become more open to the idea of raising rates if inflation fails to improve. Warsh has also avoided giving markets a clear roadmap, meaning that a hike cannot be easily dismissed simply because officials did not prepare investors for one in advance.
Crypto Impact
Crypto analytics platform Santiment Intelligence outlined a notable rise in social-media discussions about the interest-rate hikes ahead of today’s meeting. The data showed a similar spike in such fears before the previous meeting on June 16. However, as it typically happens, the social chatter was wrong as the Fed left rates unchanged.
“Crowd conviction can get loud right before it gets wrong, especially when traders are trying to price Fed uncertainty into Bitcoin,” said Santiment.
Let’s talk prices. BTC dipped by $3,000 yesterday in a de-risking development ahead of the meeting. It has recovered half of the losses, currently sitting above $64,000.
If the Fed doesn’t change rates and Warsh doesn’t signal strongly for a September hike, BTC could rebound further as the uncertainty might have already been priced in. If there’s no rate change but the Chairman sounds hawkish, bitcoin might jump initially as there would be no hike now, but it’s likely to retreat toward $60,000 in the next few weeks.
A surprise 25-basis-point increase, though, will be the most bearish immediate outcome for the cryptocurrency. The decision will likely strengthen the dollar, push Treasury yields higher, and cause investors to further reduce exposure to speculative assets.
The post The Most Unpredictable FOMC Meeting in Years Is Here: What Bitcoin Investors Should Know appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Jump Capital has closed a $350 million venture fund with a stronger focus on crypto investments.
Summary
- Jump Capital has closed a $350 million venture fund with a stronger focus on early stage crypto investments.
- The firm said the new fund will back blockchain infrastructure, DeFi, Web3, fintech, and enterprise software startups.
- Jump Capital has expanded its crypto portfolio through investments in Securitize, Shelby, and KGeN over the past year.
- The venture firm has completed more than 100 investments and nearly 30 exits since its launch.
According to a July 29 announcement, Jump Capital has closed its seventh venture fund with $350 million in total capital commitments, describing it as the firm’s largest fund to date and outlining plans to increase investments across the crypto ecosystem while continuing to back early-stage technology startups.
The firm’s official announcement said the new vehicle will continue investing in fintech, IT and data infrastructure, future of commerce and media, and B2B SaaS, while allocating more resources to blockchain and digital asset companies.
The fund follows nearly a decade of venture investing that has resulted in more than 100 portfolio companies and close to 30 exits.
Jump Capital has expanded its crypto allocation
Founded in 2012 alongside Jump Trading, Jump Capital said it originally focused on software and technology companies outside traditional coastal venture markets while supplying Series A and Series B funding to underserved founders across the United States.
The firm said market conditions have changed considerably since then. Access to Series A and Series B capital has become more limited, while investor attention toward startups in the Midwest increased during the pandemic.
At the same time, blockchain emerged as what Jump Capital described as a technology capable of changing financial markets and introducing new models of ownership and value transfer.
According to the announcement, the venture firm began investing in crypto roughly seven years ago before building a dedicated investment team led by partners Saurabh Sharma and Peter Johnson. It said experience across distributed systems, computing infrastructure, fintech, and capital markets encouraged it to commit more resources to the sector through its latest fund.
The announcement added that Jump Capital and its affiliate Jump Trading now invest globally across the crypto market, citing increasing institutional participation, continued retail adoption, and rapid product development as factors supporting that strategy.
Crypto investments already span infrastructure and tokenization
According to Jump Capital, its crypto portfolio already includes investments across exchanges that support fiat on-ramps, lending and credit platforms, compliance software, asset management platforms, decentralized finance, gaming, Web3 infrastructure, and blockchain networks.
In May 2025, Jump Crypto, the digital asset division of Jump Trading, acquired a significant equity stake in Securitize for an undisclosed amount. At the time, Securitize said the partnership would expand institutional access to tokenized real-world assets, including U.S. Treasurys, private credit, and private equity, while improving collateral management solutions. Securitize Chief Operating Officer Michael Sonneshein said the investment demonstrated growing institutional conviction in tokenization and its role in capital markets.
The company made another infrastructure-focused move in June 2025, when Aptos Labs and Jump Crypto introduced Shelby, a decentralized hot storage network designed to provide cloud-grade infrastructure for Web3 applications. Aptos Labs said Shelby would deliver decentralized, monetizable storage with sub-second data access across multiple blockchains, while Jump Crypto said the protocol addresses blockchains’ inability to efficiently serve large datasets at scale.
Earlier collaborators announced for Shelby included Metaplex, Pipe Network, Story, Myco, DoubleZero, and Flashback Labs, with Aptos serving as the network’s initial settlement layer.
Portfolio activity has continued across emerging Web3 projects
Jump Crypto has also continued backing consumer-facing blockchain applications.
In September 2025, Web3 distribution protocol KGeN announced a $13.5 million strategic funding round backed by Jump Crypto, Accel, and Prosus Ventures, increasing the company’s total funding to $43.5 million.
KGeN said the proceeds would support expansion of its POGE identity and reputation framework, which helps Web3 applications manage user acquisition, commerce, and loyalty programs on-chain. At the time, the company reported operations across more than 60 countries, serving 38.9 million verified users, generating $48.3 million in annualized revenue, and recording roughly 780,000 daily active users.
Following that investment, Jump Crypto Chief Investment Officer Saurabh Sharma said KGeN’s distribution model introduced more accountability into digital user acquisition, while Accel and Prosus Ventures credited the platform’s ability to scale measurable engagement.
New fund builds on nearly a decade of venture investing
Alongside its crypto activity, Jump Capital said its venture business has completed more than 100 investments and nearly 30 exits since launch.
The firm pointed to exits involving Personal Capital, acquired by Empower, Flashpoint, acquired by Audax, and Tubi, acquired by Fox, while also highlighting companies including SPIRE, Fast Radius, M1 Finance, Degreed, TradingView, LogicGate, and LinkSquares among its portfolio.
According to Jump Capital, its investment process continues to rely on sector-specific research and discussions with industry participants before identifying founders whose businesses align with the firm’s investment themes.
With Fund VII now closed, the venture firm said it plans to continue supporting early-stage technology companies while dedicating additional capital and personnel to blockchain infrastructure, decentralized finance, crypto networks, gaming, and other parts of the digital asset ecosystem.
The US dollar continues to hold the upper hand against most major currencies ahead of the outcome of the latest Federal Reserve meeting. While the base-case scenario remains for interest rates to stay unchanged, markets are also pricing in the possibility of a rate hike. The Fed’s decision, together with its comments on inflation, economic conditions and the future path of monetary policy, could determine the direction of the US dollar over the coming weeks.
Another factor supporting the dollar is the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Despite the temporary suspension of US strikes on Iran and renewed diplomatic efforts, the risk of further military escalation remains, prompting investors to remain cautious ahead of this week’s key events. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, USD/JPY’s approach towards multi-year highs has increased expectations of fresh warnings from Japanese authorities and raised the risk of currency intervention. For USD/CAD, oil prices remain another important driver: weaker crude prices continue to limit support for the Canadian dollar and help preserve the pair’s bullish potential.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY tested another multi-year high near 164.00 last week. Following the strong rally, the pair has entered a modest pullback. However, if the Federal Reserve delivers a more hawkish outcome or maintains its hawkish tone, the pair could extend its advance towards 165.00–165.50. A decisive move below 163.30 could trigger a deeper correction towards the 162.00–162.60 support area.
Key events for USD/JPY:
- Today at 21:00 (GMT+3): US Federal Reserve interest rate decision;
- Today at 21:30 (GMT+3): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference;
- Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD’s recovery following the formation of a bullish engulfing pattern has stalled near resistance at 1.4130. The pair is currently consolidating within the 1.4060–1.4130 range. A decisive break above the upper boundary of this range could pave the way for further gains towards 1.4160–1.4200. Conversely, a move below 1.4060 could lead to a retest of the recent low near 1.4000.
Key events for USD/CAD:
- Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories;
- Today at 20:30 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations;
- Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): US GDP data.
Overall, the near-term direction of both USD/JPY and USD/CAD will depend primarily on the Federal Reserve’s decision and its guidance on the future path of interest rates. A more hawkish stance could support a breakout above nearby resistance levels and reinforce the US dollar’s strength. Conversely, a more dovish message could trigger a correction in the greenback, particularly against the Japanese yen, where the proximity of multi-year highs increases the likelihood of renewed warnings from Japanese officials. For USD/CAD, oil price movements and the Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations will remain important additional drivers.
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XRP trades near $1.06 in late July 2026, roughly 71 percent below the $3.65 cycle top set on July 17, 2025. This piece walks through the escrow-versus-ETF equation, the bull case ($4.50–$7.00 by 2030), the base case ($1.80–$3.20), and the bear case ($0.60–$1.40).
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Crypto World
HTX’s First TradFi “Trade to Earn” Campaign Unleashes New Trading Momentum: Rewards Exceed $23,000, Fee Savings Reach 1.8 Billion $HTX
Recently, HTX’s first-ever TradFi “Trade to Earn” campaign concluded successfully. The campaign leveraged innovative gameplay – “24/7 mining” and “up to 110% fee rebates” – to ignite significant trading enthusiasm for traditional finance assets within the crypto market.
HTX’s official data reveals impressive results: the campaign generated a total trading volume of 63.37 million USDT, crowned a top winner claiming 5,206 USDT in rewards, and collectively saved users 22,238 USDT in trading fees. These achievements underscore the event’s effectiveness in enhancing the user trading experience and reducing trading costs.
Amid current market volatility, HTX’s TradFi perpetual futures contracts offer users an excellent hedging and cross-market investment tool. Through the “mining via trading” model, users can capture macro opportunities such as surging U.S. equities and gold volatility using familiar USDT capital without trading fee friction.
Enjoy Negative Trading Fee Rates 24/7
Official data reveals that the inaugural “Trade to Earn” campaign generated a robust trading volume of 63.37 million USDT. Over the campaign period, the platform distributed 23,477 USDT in rewards while saving traders 22,238 USDT in fees (an equivalent of roughly 1.8 billion $HTX). These impressive metrics highlight HTX’s trading innovations with negative fee rates and 24/7 continuous rewards.
During the campaign, users trading designated TradFi perpetual futures contracts earned $HTX rewards of up to 110% of their actual trading fees incurred. This means the platform not only covers all trading costs but also provides additional rewards, transforming trading costs from an expense into profit and truly achieving “the more you trade, the more you earn.” Additionally, the platform offered a daily prize pool of 6,000 USDT, distributed hourly to ensure round-the-clock incentives.
Notably, the campaign-designated trading assets span a diverse range of core TradFi instruments: from safe-haven and inflation-hedging tools like gold (XAU) and crude oil (USOIL), to major indices like the Nasdaq (QQQ) and tech giants including NVIDIA (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT). This diverse selection of assets offers users versatile macro allocation, hedging, and cross-market trading opportunities, further expanding practical use cases at the intersection of Web3 and traditional finance.
Fees for $HTX Buyback and Burn, Constructing a Positive Cycle of Trading and Ecosystem Value
Beyond trading rewards, another standout feature of this campaign is its deep integration of user trading activity with $HTX ecosystem value.
During the campaign, all trading fees generated from designated TradFi contracts were allocated to buy back $HTX tokens, with buybacks executed and burned according to the platform’s quarterly burning schedule. This mechanism links platform trading growth with $HTX value creation, continuously incentivizing user participation while reinforcing the token’s deflationary characteristics. This fosters a positive cycle: “trading growth – token buyback and burn – value accumulation.”
With the first campaign successfully concluded, HTX’s second-phase TradFi “Trade to Earn” is now in preparation. The campaign will continue to adopt negative-fee trading and 24/7 rewards, while further expanding access to popular TradFi asset trading scenarios. This will enable users to capture global market opportunities while continuously enjoying the innovative experience of “trading as earnings.”
Looking forward, HTX will leverage more diverse products, increasingly competitive incentives, and an enhanced ecosystem to drive deeper integration between crypto and TradFi, delivering a more professional and efficient digital asset trading platform for global users.
About HTX
Founded in 2013, HTX has evolved from a virtual asset exchange into a comprehensive ecosystem of blockchain businesses that span digital asset trading, financial derivatives, research, investments, incubation, and other businesses.
As a world-leading gateway to Web3, HTX harbors global capabilities that enable it to provide users with safe and reliable services. Adhering to the growth strategy of “Global Expansion, Thriving Ecosystem, Wealth Effect, Security & Compliance,” HTX is dedicated to providing quality services and values to virtual asset enthusiasts worldwide.
To learn more about HTX, please visit https://www.htx.com/ or HTX Square , and follow HTX on X, Telegram, and Discord.
The post HTX’s First TradFi “Trade to Earn” Campaign Unleashes New Trading Momentum: Rewards Exceed $23,000, Fee Savings Reach 1.8 Billion $HTX appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Russia has escalated its long-running dispute with Telegram by charging founder Pavel Durov with facilitating terrorist activities and issuing an international arrest warrant, marking one of the most significant legal actions yet against the messaging platform’s billionaire founder.
The move comes as governments worldwide intensify pressure on technology platforms over content moderation, encryption, and their responsibilities in preventing criminal activity. The latest accusations also add to Durov’s ongoing legal challenges outside Russia, including an active investigation in France.
The post Russia Targets Telegram Founder Pavel Durov With Terrorism Charges appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Bitcoin climbed 1% to about $63,800 on Wednesday while Asian equity markets suffered one of their worst stretches of the year, the second time in a seven-day period that crypto has held through a sharp unwind in the artificial intelligence trade.
The majors moved with it. Ether rose 1% to $1,899, XRP added 2% to $1.07, BNB gained to $567, solana held at $73, and dogecoin edged up. Hyperliquid’s HYPE was the only major in the red, down 3% to $54.
The damage in equities was concentrated in chipmakers. South Korea’s benchmark tumbled 11%, following an 11% drop on Tuesday and putting the index on course for a record two-day decline. SK Hynix fell about 17% after reporting a 557% surge in quarterly profit that still came in below expectations, and
Samsung slid 12% ahead of its own results on Thursday. The MSCI Asia Pacific index dropped 2% to its lowest since mid-April, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1%, extending a five-day losing streak for the tech-heavy gauge, its longest this year.
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