Crypto World
BNB Price Prediction As Binance Shifts SAFU To Bitcoin
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The BNB token recorded $3.6 billion in trading volume, as the price fell back to trade within the falling wedge pattern, as the Binance exchange disclosed plans to convert the SAFU fund’s $1 billion stablecoin reserves into Bitcoin within 30 days to restore the fund to $1 billion if price fluctuations push its value below $800 million.
Binance Coin price has dropped 5.1% in the last 24 hours to $841.54 as of 04:04 a.m. EST, as the crypto market also fell over 5% to $2.89 trillion, according to Coingecko data.
As a result of this continued drop, BTC dropped sharply, reaching its lowest level in over two months, as a wave of forced liquidations hit leveraged traders while investors weighed the potential impact of a US Federal Reserve leadership change.
Data from Coinglass show that roughly $1.74 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out over the past 24 hours amid the sell-off, with 93% of these coming from long positions.
Binance To Shift $1 billion User Protection Fund Into Bitcoin
Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume, announced a plan to convert the entire $1 billion reserve of its Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) from stablecoins into BTC over the next 30 days.
The fund was created to protect users from losses caused by unforeseen events, such as data breaches. It added that if bitcoin’s price swings drop the fund’s value below $800 million, the exchange will top it back up to $1 billion.
“This initiative is part of Binance’s long-term industry-building efforts, and we will continue to advance related work, gradually sharing more progress with the community,” Binance said on X.
— 币安Binance华语 (@binancezh) January 30, 2026
Under the outlined plan, the exchange will gradually acquire BTC as a way of avoiding sudden market disruption, a bold move by a centralized exchange to back up user funds with BTC.
Converting $1 billion over 30 days implies roughly $33 million in daily BTC purchases, which could, in turn, help stabilize the cryptocurrency’s drawdowns.
Furthermore, with the $800 million rebalance threshold, Binance will commit to buying the dip if the BTC price falls sharply.
CZ Denies Large-Scale BNB Selling By Binance
As the crypto market corrected, Binance founder Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao denied allegations that the exchange engaged in large-scale selling of various cryptocurrencies, which may have contributed to the sustained market decline.
According to CZ, the negative rumors are harmful to the broader market but not personally impactful.
FUD doesn’t hurt the target. My followers increased.
FUD hurts the market (ie everyone).
I/Binance do not sell in any meaningful amounts.
My selling = I swipe my card and $5 worth of BNB gets converted/sent to the coffee shop.
I don’t run Binance anymore, but based on what I…
— CZ 🔶 BNB (@cz_binance) January 30, 2026
According to CZ, he and Binance have not engaged in any “meaningful” selling activities, and any personal sales have been limited to daily expenses.
CZ’s comments follow allegations that the co-founder and the exchange have engaged in market manipulation and self-serving practices over the years.
Working on a follow up article for those interested….
Just as Binance are nuking the market https://t.co/xgyg24N9Pn pic.twitter.com/vbNC8QB39C
— $trong (@StrongHedge) January 29, 2026
BNB Price Drops Below Key Support, Risks A Sustained Plunge
The BNB price has fallen back below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), reinforcing the narrative of a sustained decline.
After a dramatic surge in October 2025, Binance Coin entered a correction and began trading within a well-defined falling wedge pattern.
After a breakout early this year, the price of BNB is back below the lower boundary of the wedge, as sentiment changed to bearish.
BNB’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) also supports the overall bearish trend, as it continues to drop towards the 30-oversold region, currently at 36.74.
With the price of the Binance Coin dropping back within the upper boundary of the falling wedge pattern, the outlook is currently bearish, as the price now risks a sustained drop back deep within the wedge.
If the bears continue to exert pressure, BNB risks a continued downtrend towards the $820.63 support area, which acted as a strong demand area in late 2025. This could be pushed by the SMAs forming around $884.27, with the 200-day SMA moving above the 50-day SMA.
Conversely, if the Binance Coin reclaims the 50-day SMA resistance level around $882.23 and manages to close above the 200-day SMA ($921), the next key target will be the $1,000 psychological zone.
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Coinbase has opened stock and exchange-traded fund trading to all US users, allowing customers to buy and sell equities alongside crypto within the same app on a 24/5 basis. The rollout includes commission-free trading, fractional shares, and instant funding with USD or USDC.
According to a company post on Tuesday, thousands of stocks are available to trade 24 hours a day, five days a week, with approximately 6,000 securities currently supported and plans to expand that number in the coming weeks.
Coinbase said it aims to introduce stock perpetual futures for non-US users through Coinbase Bermuda Ltd., subject to regulatory approval, and said it intends to offer tokenized equities in the future.
Today’s announcement comes on the heels of Coinbase expanding its prediction markets offering to all 50 US states last month through a partnership with Kalshi, allowing users to trade contracts tied to real-world events across sports, politics and culture.
Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, posted the news today on X, writing “The everything exchange is growing.”
Related: WisdomTree gets SEC approval for round-the-clock trading of tokenized MMF
Tokenized equities gain traction from crypto platforms to Wall Street
Tokenized equities, blockchain-based representations of traditional shares, have emerged as a major theme in crypto over the past year.
In June, more than 60 tokenized stocks became available on crypto exchanges Kraken and Bybit, as well as on Solana-based DeFi platforms. The rollout, led by Backed Finance through its xStocks product, gave users blockchain-based exposure to major companies including Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Nvidia, Meta, Coinbase and Robinhood.
In October, fintech Robinhood expanded its own tokenization program on the Arbitrum blockchain, adding 80 new stock tokens and bringing its total to 493 tokenized assets.
While crypto-native and fintech platforms have led recent rollouts, interest in tokenized equities now extends to some of the world’s largest exchanges.
In September, Nasdaq filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) seeking approval to list tokenized equities, and in November, the exchange’s head of digital assets strategy, Matt Savarese, told CNBC that securing SEC approval to list tokenized versions of exchange-listed stocks is a top priority for the company.
In January, the New York Stock Exchange and its parent company, Intercontinental Exchange, announced plans to develop a platform for trading tokenized stocks and ETFs. The proposed system would support 24/7 trading and instant settlement by combining NYSE’s Pillar matching engine with blockchain-based post-trade infrastructure.
Coinbase also today announced a partnership with Yahoo Finance to enable users to move from researching an asset on Yahoo Finance to executing a trade on Coinbase with one click. Yahoo Finance will incorporate real-time information from Coinbase for asset discovery and tracking.
The US-based exchange said Coinbase One members can earn rewards on USDC (USDC) balances used for trading, and Yahoo Finance users will be offered a one-month trial of Coinbase One Basic as part of the partnership.
Magazine: Is China hoarding gold so yuan becomes global reserve instead of USD?
Binance is demanding that the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) remove an article about the crypto exchange firing investigators who discovered $1 billion worth of crypto being sent to Iran-linked wallets.
Binance CEO Richard Teng shared a letter addressed to the WSJ’s Editor-in-Chief, Emma Tucker, and Dow Jones Vice President, Jason Conti, on X today that accuses the WSJ of publishing “defamatory claims” in Monday’s article.
It claims that the article contains “false information” which “should be corrected immediately,” and that any defamatory imputations should be retracted.
Binance says it wants the WSJ to take down the article until the requested corrections are made.
The letter doesn’t explicitly suggest Binance will pursue legal action, but says it must update the piece, “thus potentially avoiding the need for any further action.”
Read more: Is Binance sending cease-and-desist letters?
Binance claims that its client, which remains nameless, “reasonably, cooperatively, and promptly” responded to a series of questions put forward by a WSJ journalist.
However, it claims the piece “fails to reflect” their responses and “falsely asserts to readers that Binance engaged in illegal conduct by breaching Iranian sanctions.”
“While you solicited our client’s position, your failure to reflect our client’s responses is inconsistent with your ethical obligations to ‘remain fair, accurate and impartial’, and suggests an agenda already set, which does not amount to responsible journalism,” Binance claimed.
WSJ says Binance sleuths found sanction-breaking transactions
The WSJ published the article yesterday with the headline “Binance Fired Staff Who Flagged $1 Billion Moving to Sanctioned Iran Entities.”
It claimed that, based on company documents and unnamed sources familiar with Binance, the investigators were fired after uncovering a suspicious account owned by the Hong Kong company Blessed Trust.
The firm converts fiat currency into crypto, and the investigators found it had sent more than $1 billion worth of tether (USDT) to a series of wallets, known as “Entity A.”
US law enforcement claims Entity A is a shadow banking network run by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that allows Chinese companies to pay for Iran’s oil.
The account raised numerous internal alerts of suspicious activity throughout 2025. By the time the investigation was raised to Binance’s top execs, the lead investigator and the head of sanctions and counterterrorist financing investigations were suspended, and fired weeks later.
Read more: US hits Iran’s ‘shadow banking’ network in Hong Kong, UAE
A Binance spokesperson told the WSJ that the investigators weren’t fired for raising compliance concerns, but instead left “based on individual circumstances.”
They added that the investigation continued after their departure and that the accounts in question were removed from Binance.
US President Donald Trump pardoned Changpeng Zhao, the former CEO of the company, weeks before the crypto exchange fired the investigators.
All this took place during a period of intense geopolitical tension between the US and Iran. Iran is subject to global sanctions and, as such, is reliant on cryptocurrencies such as USDT to bypass these restrictions.
Iran is now facing a US armada on its doorstep as Trump continues to build his country’s military presence in an attempt to pressure Iran into dropping its nuclear program.
Binance founding member ‘friend’ of Blessed Trust representative
The WSJ also reported that Blessed Trust enjoyed close ties with one of Binance’s founding members, Jukai He, otherwise known as “Rock.”
Screenshots revealed that Rock had some form of friendship with one of Blessed’s representatives. The investigation also found that Binance employees, and a device within Rock’s team, were logging into the Blessed Binance account.
Binance representatives told the WSJ that Rock has no supervisory or operational role within Blessed Trust, and that no Binance employees had logged into the Blessed Trust account.
It said, “Any suggestion that Blessed Trust was operated, directed, or controlled by Binance is false,” and added that the WSJ’s claims are based on “incorrect investigation records.”
Protos has reached out to the WSJ for comment on Binance’s article demands and will update this piece should we hear anything back.
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The Terraform Labs bankruptcy estate has sued quantitative trading giant Jane Street, alleging the firm used non-public information to profit as the TerraUSD stablecoin collapsed in May 2022, according to a docket filed yesterday with the New York Southern District Court.
In a report about the lawsuit by the Wall Street Journal, Terraform Labs’ court-appointed administrator, Todd Snyder, stated that Jane Street “abused market relationships” to short the ecosystem during its death spiral, mirroring similar allegations made against Jump Trading late last year.
The estate seeks to recover funds for creditors who lost billions during the $40 billion wipeout of the Terra ecosystem.
Key Takeaways
- The lawsuit alleges Jane Street exploited private liquidity data to profit from the TerraUSD depeg before the public was aware.
- Terraform’s estate claims the trading firm netted millions by front-running a critical $150 million liquidity withdrawal from Curve.
- Jane Street has dismissed the suit as a “desperate” attempt to extract money from legitimate market activities.
Estate Targets “Privileged Access” in Crash Recovery
The lawsuit centers on specific maneuvers executed in May 2022, just as the algorithmic stablecoin UST began to lose its peg to the US dollar.
Terraform Labs’ court-appointed plan administrator, Todd Snyder, alleges that Jane Street capitalized on vulnerabilities in Terra’s mint-and-burn mechanism via manipulative trades.
“Jane Street abused market relationships to rig the market in its favor during one of the most consequential events in crypto history,” Snyder claimed in his statement to WSJ.
The estate argues that these trades were not merely shrewd market moves but were predicated on non-public information regarding Terraform’s internal liquidity management.
The legal action is part of a broader recovery effort following the firm’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, which listed assets and liabilities between $100 million and $500 million, a fraction of the market value destroyed during the collapse.
Discover: The best new crypto to buy
Inside the Curve Pool Incident
The complaint reportedly highlights a pivotal sequence of events involving the Curve3pool, a critical liquidity venue for stablecoins.
According to the filing, Terraform Labs executed an unannounced withdrawal of $150 million from the pool to adjust liquidity. Less than 10 minutes later, a wallet allegedly linked to Jane Street withdrew $85 million.
The estate argues this timing indicates Jane Street possessed “advance insight” into Terraform’s operations, using that data to position itself ahead of the resulting market panic.
This mirrors the scrutiny placed on liquidity shifts in current markets, where traders obsessively monitor order books and Polymarket odds for a Bitcoin price drop to detect institutional positioning before price action hits.
Jane Street firmly denies the allegations.
Implications for DeFi and Stablecoin Regulation
If the court finds merit in the “misappropriation theory” applied to DeFi protocols, it could redefine the legal obligations of market makers in the crypto sector.
The suit suggests that “privileged access” in decentralized finance is a legal liability, not just a competitive edge.
This legal battle arrives as the regulatory environment for stablecoins intensifies. While the 2022 collapse serves as a cautionary tale, modern stablecoins drive $1 trillion in T-bill demand, creating a different set of systemic risks and incentives.
Regulators are currently scrutinizing how private trading firms interact with issuer protocols.
The outcome could also accelerate legislative frameworks. As odds spike for stablecoin talks regarding the Clarity Act, lawmakers may cite these allegations to demand stricter separation between protocol issuers and market makers.
What Comes Next
The case now moves to the discovery phase in Delaware, where Jane Street will be required to produce communications regarding its 2022 trading strategies.
This follows a similar $4 billion lawsuit filed by Terraform Labs against Jump Trading in December, which accused the firm of materially contributing to the Terra ecosystem’s instability.
Major Update in Terraform Labs Bankruptcy: Plan Administrator Files Lawsuit Against Jump Trading! — Z3r0w
On Dec 18, 2025, a bombshell complaint was dropped in Illinois federal court (Case 1:25-cv-15414) targeting Jump Trading, its ex-Crypto president Kanav Kariya, and even Do Kwon… pic.twitter.com/3uhmVNBCzF
Traders (@_Z3r0wTraders) February 18, 2026
It looks like Terraform is entering a protracted battle on at least two different fronts that could peel back the curtain on high-frequency trading strategies during crypto market crises.
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The post Terraform Estate Sues Jane Street Over Trades Tied to 2022 Crypto Collapse appeared first on Cryptonews.
Bitwise Investments has acquired institutional staking provider Chorus One, offering clients access to more than 30 proof-of-stake networks.
Bitwise Investments has announced the acquisition of Chorus One, a leading provider of institutional staking services, marking an expansion in Bitwise’s staking capabilities and onchain offerings.
With more $15 billion in assets under management (AUM), Bitwise is known for its crypto index funds and has been broadening its offerings through its Bitwise Onchain Solutions (BOS) division. The acquisition of Chorus One, renowned for its cross-chain staking infrastructure, significantly boosts BOS’ capabilities in the staking domain. The move enhances Bitwise’s reach across over 30 proof-of-stake networks, according to a press release from Bitwise.
Chorus One’s expertise in providing staking services to institutions complements Bitwise’s existing offerings, allowing for a seamless integration that is set to enhance the overall service quality.
The institutional staking market has been experiencing rapid growth, with more institutions looking to participate in proof-of-stake networks. This trend is driven by the dual benefits of yield generation and contribution to network security, which are increasingly attractive to institutional investors seeking diversified returns.
“For our thousands of clients who hold spot crypto assets, staking is one of the most compelling growth opportunities. I’m thrilled about this acquisition and grateful to the Chorus One team for the trust placed in us. Chorus One is best-in-class across technology and research, with an eight-year track record of doing things the right way.” said Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsely.
This article was generated with the assistance of AI workflows.
Shares dropped after Citrini Research published a thought experiment, but the Kobeissi Letter argues the outlook may be too pessimistic.
Shares of major credit card companies fell on Monday, Feb. 23, after a thought experiment report from Citrini Research raised concerns about how artificial intelligence (AI) could change the payments industry – however, a separate note from The Kobeissi Letter pushed back, saying the disruption risks are overstated.
According to market data shared by Bearly AI in a post on X, Visa dropped about 4.4%, Mastercard fell 6.3%, American Express slid 7.9%, and Capital One declined roughly 8% on Feb. 23 after Citrini’s note was published on Feb. 22.
Notably, by Tuesday afternoon, shares were mostly steady or slightly higher. Visa was around $306, flat on the day, while Mastercard traded near $497, up about 0.5%. American Express was also little changed at $321, and Capital One rose about 4% to around $197.
The situation underscores how quickly viral narratives can move markets and how sensitive both stocks and crypto are to FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt). It also shows investors are still unsure how much AI will disrupt the industry.
AI Agent Payments
Citrini Research described a scenario in which AI programs make purchases on their own and seek the cheapest way to send money. In that case, stablecoins could replace credit cards for some transactions.
“What follows is a scenario, not a prediction,” the note emphasized. “This isn’t bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. The sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that’s been relatively underexplored.”
Meanwhile, in a separate note published last night, The Kobeissi Letter said the negative view assumes demand will not change. It argued that when technology makes things cheaper, people usually spend more. Lower-cost AI services could give consumers more buying power and help new businesses start.
“The doomsday scenario went viral because it captured something visceral,” The Kobeissi Letter note reads. “It framed AI not as a productivity tool, but as a macroeconomic destabilizer capable of triggering a negative feedback loop: layoffs lead to weaker consumption, weaker consumption leads to more automation, and automation accelerates layoffs.”
The memo said AI could also have a positive impact. While some companies may face pressure, lower costs could improve productivity and support economic growth over time. “AI amplifies outcomes. It can amplify fragility if institutions fail to adapt, and it can also amplify prosperity if productivity outpaces disruption,” the note reads.
The back-and-forth comes amid declines in some software and tech stocks following major AI announcements. For instance, shares of IBM plummeted about 13% on Monday, the stock’s steepest drop in more than 25 years.
TLDR
- Smarter Web secured a $30 million Bitcoin-backed credit facility from Coinbase Credit.
- The company stated that the facility will help it execute Bitcoin purchases faster after equity raises.
- Smarter Web confirmed that it will not use the credit line as long-term debt for Bitcoin accumulation.
- The firm reported holding 2,689 BTC, which is valued at about $170 million at current market prices.
- Tracker data shows that Smarter Web continued to increase its Bitcoin holdings after its 2025 disclosure.
Smarter Web opened a new phase in its treasury plan as it secured a $30 million Bitcoin-backed credit line, and the firm said the move will speed purchase timing after fundraises, and the structure will support rapid deployment during volatile sessions.
Credit Facility Details and Early 2026 Treasury Activity
The Smarter Web Company confirmed the new facility with Coinbase Credit and stated that the credit line is secured against Bitcoin held in custody with Coinbase. The firm said the facility helps it act quickly after equity raises and cuts timing risk during fast markets. The company stressed that it does not plan to use the structure as ongoing debt and intends to repay it once the funds clear.
Smarter Web trades on the London Stock Exchange Main Market and also trades on the OTCQB Venture Market in the United States. The firm describes Bitcoin as core to its treasury plan and continues to expand digital asset holdings. Data shows digital asset treasuries recorded billions in inflows from late 2025 through early 2026 before slowing in February.
DefiLlama data shows treasuries reached $4 billion in inflows during December and $3.7 billion in January. The figure reached $363 million through February 24 and stayed positive but below earlier peaks. The company cited these flows when noting its need for faster execution during market shifts.
Smarter Web Treasury Position and Sector Activity
Smarter Web reported holdings of 2,689 BTC with an average cost of $112,865 per coin. At current prices near $64,472, the position is valued at about $170 million. The firm said the book reflects an unrealized loss based on its reported cost basis and continues to track long-term plans.
The company reported 2,470 BTC on September 12, 2025, and called itself the largest corporate holder in the United Kingdom. It also mentioned interest in acquiring competitors and referenced future index ambitions. Tracker data indicates the company continued steady accumulation after that point.
The new credit line allows the firm to borrow against existing Bitcoin and act quickly after equity raises. The structure then allows repayment once fundraising proceeds settle.
The company said this approach helps reduce timing gaps during active sessions.
Strategy added 592 BTC on Monday and raised its total to 717,722 BTC. The company marked its 100th purchase since 2020 and maintained its accumulation pattern. Meanwhile, Bitdeer reported selling its entire treasury and shifted to a convertible debt raise while removing all corporate Bitcoin.
Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, attends the ribbon-cutting ceremony opening the firm’s new headquarters at 270 Park Ave., in New York, Oct. 21, 2025.
Eduardo Munoz | Reuters
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank is taking steps to address the impact of artificial intelligence on its workers, part of what he said should be a broader societal response to the potentially disruptive nature of AI.
Dimon described at an investor meeting late Monday his bank’s internal plans to shift employees into new roles as automation accelerates.
“We already have huge redeployment plans for [our] own people,” Dimon said. “In fact, we spoke about it today, and we have to up that a little bit so we can take people who are displaced — and we have displaced people from AI — and we offer them other jobs.”
JPMorgan, the world’s biggest bank by market cap, has the industry’s largest annual tech budget at nearly $20 billion. Its executives have outlined an ambitious agenda to become “fundamentally rewired” for the AI era.
Even at this early stage, the bank’s workforce provides a snapshot of what happens when corporations employ AI technology, including models from OpenAI and Anthropic, which are both used by JPMorgan’s AI portal.
The bank’s headcount was roughly unchanged at 318,512 over the past year, but there were changes below the surface: Operations and support staff fell by 4% and 2%, respectively, as the firm added 4% to roles that involve catering to clients and generating revenue.
It did that by using technology to boost the number of accounts that each operations employee can handle (up 6%), reducing the per-unit cost to deal with fraud (down 11%) and making their software engineers 10% more efficient, according to the bank’s presentation.
JPMorgan has doubled the use cases for generative AI this year, focusing on customer service and the firm’s technology workers, Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum said at the investor meeting.
A JPMorgan spokeswoman declined to elaborate on Dimon’s comments about plans for redeployment.
Disruption risk
When an analyst on Monday asked if Dimon was concerned about the risk of widespread unemployment because of AI — one of several fears circulating as every AI model update seems to wallop the shares of public companies in recent weeks — Dimon had this response: “We are going to deploy AI as best we can to do a better job for our customers,” he said.
The CEO has previously likened the potential impact of AI to that of electricity or the printing press.
Beyond the “huge redeployment plans” for his bank, Dimon expressed concern that the rapid adoption of AI could put entire professions out of work.
As a thought experiment, what if autonomous trucks were introduced overnight, he asked.
“Would you do it if you put 2 million people on the street?” Dimon asked. “That next job is $25,000 a year, stocking shelves.”
Businesses and governments need to begin planning for this risk now, with ideas including assistance and training for displaced workers, he said.
“Society’s got to think through what it wants to do if this becomes that kind of problem,” Dimon said. “Now is the time to start thinking about it.”
Bitcoin’s on-chain signals have cooled after a run of elevated profitability and aggressive selling, suggesting a potential valuation reset rather than a definitive bottom. In the latest data reads, investor profitability has drifted back toward the long-run mean, while spot order flow shows signs of calmer unloading even as trading activity remains subdued. The interplay between valuation metrics and liquidity conditions is shaping expectations for when genuine spot demand could re-emerge and whether that would accompany a sustained trend reversal. Across the metrics, there is a defensively postured market rather than a clear pivot higher, at least for now.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) has normalized after previously trading at extremes, signaling a shift back toward historical baselines rather than an overt undervaluation.
- Realized capitalization declined to about $1.09 trillion from a peak near $1.12 trillion in November 2025, reflecting roughly $33 billion in on-chain value leaving the network.
- Coins aged three to six months now represent 25.9% of the supply, the largest cohort in the dataset, indicating a substantial portion of holders purchased higher and are underwater on many positions.
- Spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) improved to -$161.5 million from -$177.1 million, while spot trading volume slipped to $6 billion from $7.6 billion, pointing to thinner participation and a more cautious posture among traders.
- Bitcoin has remained range-bound around $62,000–$64,000, suggesting supply absorption could pick up pace only if spot participation and risk appetite recover from current levels.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Neutral
Price impact: Neutral. On-chain signals suggest a balanced view rather than a clear, imminent move higher or lower.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The combination of a mean-reverting valuation backdrop and thinner spot activity argues for patience until clearer demand signals emerge.
Market context: The data aligns with a broader phase of cautious liquidity in crypto markets, where on-chain metrics and macro- and risk-off sentiment influence how quickly fresh spot demand can materialize. While some coins’ outflows have stabilized, the absence of a decisive upshift in participation keeps near-term catalysts subdued.
Why it matters
The evolving on-chain picture matters because it reframes the risk-reward calculus for Bitcoin holders and potential entrants. A move back toward the long-run mean in MVRV implies that the market is not yet deeply undervalued, even as some segments of investors have capitulated in the sense of exiting positions near peak prices. The retrace in realized capitalization reinforces the notion that capital has been reallocated away from high-cost entrants, a behavior consistent with risk-off dynamics rather than aggressive accumulation.
From a supply-demand perspective, the aging cohort — coins held for three to six months — being the largest on record signals that much of the newly minted supply may be sitting underwater. That concentration creates a potential for a more pronounced impact if macro conditions or on-chain signals improve, but it also poses a risk: a wave of unprofitable sellers could re-emerge if price pressure intensifies. The literature around realized cap and MVRV suggests caution, as movements toward positive momentum have historically required renewed, broad-based demand rather than a few strong rallies.
On the liquidity side, the improvement in spot CVD alongside a drop in trading volume paints a portrait of restrained selling pressure rather than a sudden flood of buy orders. In prior cycles, periods where CVD tightened and price action stabilized often foreshadow a bottom, but only when participation recovers meaningfully. In this cycle, BTC has held within a relatively narrow corridor, which implies the market is digesting recent action rather than signaling an imminent breakout.
Analysts have pointed to a neutral-to-defensive posture in the current regime. The data does not indicate a forced capitulation, but it also stops short of confirming the onset of a sustainable upturn. The resulting stance mirrors a broader crypto market landscape where liquidity remains episodic, and traders await clearer macro cues and on-chain signals before reestablishing aggressive exposure.
In related analyses, researchers have flagged similar themes in other data points. For instance, discussions around excessive loss realization have highlighted potential pressure points that could push BTC below certain thresholds, while other research has underscored the possibility of a fair-value gap guiding price targets in different market environments. Taken together, these threads reinforce a cautious approach to near-term positioning until volatility and participation trends tilt decisively in favor of bulls.
What to watch next
- BTC price stability within the $62k–$64k range and any sustained breakout above or below these levels.
- Momentum in realized capitalization — whether the roughly $33 billion drawdown since November 2025 begins to reverse as new capital re-enters the market.
- The share of the supply held by the 3–6 month cohort and any shifts toward older or younger age bands, which could signal changing holder behavior.
- On-chain liquidity signals, particularly if spot volume begins to rebound from current lows and CVD moves toward positive territory.
- Any regulatory or institutional developments that could influence risk sentiment and bid/offer dynamics in spot markets.
Sources & verification
- On-chain profitability and MVRV normalization observations attributed to expert commentary on X, including excerpts from Chris Beamish.
- Realized capitalization levels and monthly change data tracked by on-chain analytics datasets (noting the $1.09 trillion level and the $33 billion decline from the November 2025 peak).
- Spot CVD and trading volume figures, including the move from -$177.1 million to -$161.5 million and the drop in spot volume from $7.6 billion to $6.0 billion.
- Analyses describing the distribution of coins by age, with the 3–6 month cohort comprising 25.9% of supply.
- Related studies and articles cited in the original material for context on potential price implications and fair-value considerations.
Bitcoin valuation indicators in focus
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been navigating a delicate balance between on-chain fundamentals and the psychology of risk markets. The normalization of MVRV away from extreme deviations suggests that investors are no longer chasing outsized upside with the same intensity as earlier in the cycle, while realized cap has cooled after peaking in late 2025. The 30-day realized cap is down about 2.26%, signaling that capital outflows have persisted, even as some long-term holders remain reluctant to surrender positions wholesale.
The market’s price behavior in the $62,000 to $64,000 zone has become a focal point. In many periods when CVD trends toward stability and the bid-ask dynamics thin out, price action tends to consolidate before the next leg — if there is one — depends on the injection of fresh demand. The current mix of data implies a neutral stance on near-term direction, with the potential for a more decisive move only if spot participation and new inflows pick up meaningfully.
These dynamics illuminate how market participants are weighing risk, returns, and capital preservation in an environment where on-chain signals can diverge from short-term price action. While the trajectory remains uncertain, the analytical framework suggests that bulls will need a sustained improvement in on-chain demand and liquidity to push BTC beyond a fresh milestone, beyond the immediate range that has defined recent trading sessions.
Terraform Labs is suing quantitative trading firm Jane Street for its role in the collapse of the Terra ecosystem.
Terraform Labs’ estate has filed a lawsuit against quantitative trading firm Jane Street, alleging that the firm abused insider knowledge to profit from Terra and that it inadvertently contributed to the downfall of the ecosystem.
“In this case, however, Jane Street Capital and its traders exploited the public’s participation in crypto markets and contributed to the collapse of Terraform’s cryptocurrency ecosystem. They did so by misappropriating confidential information and manipulating market prices,” the suit reads.
The filing is heavily redacted, but focuses on a move related to the UST Curve 3pool. Per Snyder, Terraform withdrew $150 million of UST from the pool, a move that “was not publicly announced,” to deploy it to 4pool in the coming week.
Nine minutes later, Jane Street allegedly made its “first and only sale of UST in that pool,” selling $85 million of UST in a single transaction.
Snyder says that the swap directly led to a steep selloff in UST that resulted in Terra’s subsequent death spiral, and accuses Jane Street of using its connections with Terraform Labs to “maximize its own profits and avoid losses suffered by other investors who did not have this confidential information.”
Following the UST depeg, LUNA, now LUNC, plummeted from a $29 billion market capitalization to nearly zero in a matter of days, after reaching as high as $41 billion in April 2022.
In December, Terra founder Do Kwon was sentenced to 15 years in prison, a sentence that exceeded the Department of Justice’s 12-year target, after Kwon pleaded guilty to fraud charges in August 2025.
Jane Street is one of the largest quantitative firms in traditional finance and crypto, with more than $650 billion in assets under management (AUM).
- SEC hires ex-Chainlink lawyer Taylor Lindman to head Crypto Task Force counsel.
- LINK rebounds near $8 but is still down about 51% over the past year.
- Chainlink (LINK) price analysis shows support at $6.80 and resistance near $8.19.
Chainlink (LINK) has rebounded slightly, though it is still in the red as the US SEC taps Chainlink’s veteran Taylor Lindman to head the Crypto Task Force counsel.
At press time, LINK was currently trading at around $8.18, recovering slightly from a low of $8.13. This rebound comes amid broader market volatility that has seen LINK fall roughly 51% over the past year.
SEC taps Chainlink veteran for crypto regulation
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has appointed Taylor Lindman, formerly a senior legal officer at Chainlink Labs, as chief counsel for its Crypto Task Force.
Lindman brings over five years of experience in blockchain and regulatory compliance.
He played a key role in advising Chainlink on legal matters and navigating complex digital asset regulations before his departure in February 2023.
Lindman’s move to the SEC signals that regulators are increasingly interested in professionals with hands-on experience in decentralised finance (DeFi) and smart contract ecosystems.
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, who leads the Crypto Task Force, welcomed Lindman’s appointment.
Analysts suggest that Lindman’s expertise could influence future guidance and enforcement actions around digital assets.
LINK price performance
The market appeared to respond positively with institutional investors, including firms like Grayscale, steadily accumulating LINK tokens.
The continued institutional interest, combined with Lindman’s transition to the SEC, has reignited confidence in Chainlink’s long-term positioning.
Short-term technical indicators show that LINK recently found support at around $6.80, while the resistance at $8.19 has limited upward movement in the past.
The rebound above $8 could open the door for higher price action, while a fall below $6.80 might signal further downside risk.
Short-term LINK price prediction
With regulatory developments and institutional interest converging, LINK is drawing attention from both traders and long-term investors.
Its price movement over the next few weeks will likely reflect a mix of market sentiment, technical pressure, and evolving regulatory signals.
For short-term traders, analysts have highligted $6.80 as the immediate key short-term support level to watch. Holding above this level would suggest that the market is stabilising after recent volatility.
If LINK can break through the $8.19 resistance, the next target would be $9.51.
A sustained move above $10.80 could indicate stronger bullish momentum, attracting further buying interest.
On the downside, if the $6.80 support fails, traders should monitor the $5.38 zone as a potential safety net.
Price action around these levels will be critical in defining LINK’s short-term trend.
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