A key technical metric measuring Bitcoin’s value is at its lowest level since the bear market in 2022.

Bitcoin’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) data, which indicates how overvalued or undervalued the asset is relative to its normal “zero-sum game,” is at the same level as late 2022, right after the FTX collapse, Santiment reported on Thursday.

When the 365-day MVRV was oversold and severely negative following the FTX collapse, Bitcoin prices climbed 67% in the following three months, it added.

“This is typical when average returns are significantly below the average value for what is historically expected,” it stated.

However, macroeconomic news and “polarized opinions about Strategy’s aggressive accumulation” have been changing the landscape of cryptocurrency, noted the analysts who concluded that a big move may be ahead.

“When this powerful indicator reveals a divergence we haven’t seen in over 3 years, pay attention.”

A 67% gain from current prices would send BTC back to $116,000, but that is highly unlikely in the current bear market. In fact, analysts believe that there will be months of consolidation before a potential major move in the price.

Early Signs of Stabilization

Glassnode also leaned slightly bullish in its weekly on-chain report, stating “Bitcoin is showing early signs of stabilisation as ETF inflows return and spot demand recovers.”

BTC has been consolidating between $63,000 and $72,500 for over a month, repeatedly failing to hold above $70,000, it noted, adding that the price is sitting between two key levels: the Realized Price at $54,400 as support and the “True Market Mean” which is serving as resistance at $78,400.

There are also some stabilizing signals, including positive inflows for US spot Bitcoin ETFs, spot market buyers beginning to absorb selling pressure, perpetual futures funding turning negative, and options market implied volatility easing, suggesting reduced immediate fear.

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“The market appears to be shifting from forced deleveraging toward early stabilisation, with scope for recovery if spot demand continues to build.”

Resilient in the Face of War

Bitcoin is showing early signs of stabilisation as ETF inflows return and spot demand recovers. Negative funding points to crowded shorts, while options vol is easing.

Read the full Week On-Chain👇https://t.co/jPJp9MbNJp pic.twitter.com/jUHoVhTjXo

— glassnode (@glassnode) March 11, 2026

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Crypto Market Outlook

Total market capitalization is flat on the day, at the same level as this time yesterday, $2.45 trillion.

Bitcoin topped $71,000 again in late trading in the US, but tanked in the morning Asian session back to $69,400, mirroring yesterday’s trading pattern.

Ether prices are largely unchanged, hovering just above $2,000, while the altcoins remain dormant.

“Crypto sentiment remains weak, and trading volumes are near their lows,” reported 10x Research on Thursday.

A crypto user lost roughly $50 million in a single transaction on Thursday after executing a large token swap that triggered massive slippage.

Blockchain data shows that the wallet attempted to swap $50,432,688 aEthUSDT – an interest-bearing token representing Tether’s USDT stablecoin deposited into the Aave decentralized lending protocol on the Ethereum network – for aEthAAVE – similar version of Aave governance tokens – through the CoW Protocol.

The transaction executed with more than 99% slippage due to thin liquidity in the relevant trading pools, leaving the wallet with only about 327 aEthAAVE tokens, worth roughly $36,000 after the trade. The difference of the value was quickly captured by arbitrage traders and network intermediaries.

Large losses caused by slippage occasionally occur in decentralized finance (DeFi) when traders attempt to execute unusually large orders against shallow liquidity pools. In such cases, automated arbitrage systems rapidly exploit the price dislocations created by the trade.

Stani Kulechov, founder of the Aave protocol, said the trade went through despite multiple warnings presented to the user before confirming the transaction.

“Earlier today, a user attempted to buy AAVE using $50M USDT through the Aave interface,” Kulechov said in an X post. “Given the unusually large size of the single order, the interface warned the user about extraordinary slippage and required confirmation via a checkbox.”

According to Kulechov, the user accepted the warning on their mobile device and proceeded with the trade, explicitly acknowledging the risk of high slippage.

“The transaction could not be moved forward without the user explicitly accepting the risk,” he said, adding that the CoW Swap routers functioned as intended and followed standard industry practices.

Still, the outcome was “clearly far from optimal,” Kulechov said.

Kulechov said Aave plans to contact the affected user and return roughly $600,000 in fees collected from the transaction.

The loss comes just few days after about $27 million was liquidated on Aave, in what some market participants say may have been caused by a temporary pricing issue involving the token wstETH.

Regulatory dynamics in Washington are once again taking center stage for crypto markets. Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated he does not expect the chamber to advance digital asset market structure legislation before April, shifting focus instead to partisan and bipartisan priorities that could influence how crypto is overseen in the years ahead. The development underscores a persistent theme: while lawmakers talk about bringing clarity to the sector, procedural hurdles and competing political priorities are likely to dictate the pace of progress. In the near term, Thune signaled that the SAVE America Act, a voter-ID proposal, would move first, with the market-structure bill following afterward as part of a broader legislative agenda.

Thune’s remarks, reported by Punchbowl News, frame a timetable in which a separate, widely watched market structure bill—often discussed under the CLARITY Act umbrella in various forms—may not reach a floor vote until at least the April window. The senator said the bill could emerge from the Banking Committee soon, but a concrete floor timetable remained unclear. The discrepancy with alternative expectations from other lawmakers reflects the Senate’s broader struggle to reconcile diverse viewpoints on how digital assets should be regulated, how tokenized securities and stablecoins should be treated, and what kind of ethics standards should govern market participants.

The dynamic is complicated by competing political statements within the Senate. Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno, for instance, had suggested in February that market structure could advance in April, contrasting with Thune’s more cautious timeline. The Senate Agriculture Committee has moved its parallel version of the bill forward, but a crucial January markup — a procedural step needed to assemble the legislation for a floor vote — faced delays in the Senate Banking Committee. The result is a foggy path to a unified framework that can command bipartisan support and clear regulatory authority for the key markets and products involved.

In parallel with the market-structure debate, the Senate took up a housing bill amendment aimed at halting a central bank digital currency (CBDC). If the provision passes and becomes law, the CBDC prohibition would be active through December 2030. The amendment’s inclusion in the 21st Century Road to Housing Act has underscored how digital currency policy can intersect with broader economic policy, potentially affecting how central-bank innovations are evaluated and deployed. The CBDC ban is a notable flashpoint, illustrating the high-stakes nature of regulatory choices around digital currencies and the Fed’s potential role in a future payments landscape.

What’s at stake in the market structure bill?

The market structure bill has long been framed as a way to grant the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) broader oversight over digital assets, derivatives, and related markets. Its supporters argue that a clear regulatory framework would reduce ambiguity and improve investor protections, while critics warn of overreach that could hinder innovation and create compliance costs for startups and incumbents alike. In committee discussions, questions have centered on tokenized equities, ethics provisions, and stablecoin yield, all areas where lawmakers have expressed concerns about consumer protections, market fairness, and operational risk.

President Trump recently accused banks of holding the bill hostage, signaling that the interplay between industry stakeholders and policymakers remains volatile. The White House has hosted three meetings between crypto and banking representatives, but as of the latest reports, there was no consensus to move the market-structure package forward. The tension between executive priorities and congressional schedules has helped keep the sector’s regulatory outlook in a state of flux, with market participants watching for any sign of a breakthrough or a further stalemate.

The debate also touches on the broader question of how the United States should balance innovation with oversight. Industry participants have argued for a framework that supports responsible growth and investor protection, including clearer definitions of digital assets, guidance on tokenization, and robust safeguards around stablecoins. Lawmakers, meanwhile, are weighing how to tailor regulatory authority across agencies and how to harmonize federal standards with state-level initiatives. The CLARITY Act, which previously cleared the House in July, remains a reference point in discussions about a comprehensive regime, even as Senate negotiators press for amendments that satisfy both sides.

Why it matters

For crypto users and investors, the Senate’s pace on market structure legislation translates into a longer horizon for regulatory clarity. A clear, well-structured framework can reduce execution risk, improve market integrity, and help traditional financial institutions weigh crypto exposure with more confidence. Conversely, further delays or a lack of consensus could perpetuate a climate of regulatory ambiguity, potentially dampening liquidity as market participants delay product launches, listings, or innovative offerings until a stable path forward emerges. The CBDC debate adds another layer of strategic risk, given the potential implications for how digital currencies could coexist with private-sector options and decentralized finance ecosystems.

Beyond traders and exchanges, the outcome will influence builders—startups, liquidity providers, and infrastructure developers—who rely on predictable, transparent rules to design and deploy products. A mature policy framework could spur experimentation in areas such as tokenized assets, cross-border settlement, and compliant custody solutions, while a protracted deadlock might incentivize players to relocate parts of their operations to more certain regulatory environments. For policymakers, the challenge is to craft rules that protect consumers and investors without stifling innovation or driving capital offshore. The current debate underscores the extent to which digital asset markets have become a partisan issue, even as they attract bipartisan attention due to consumer demand, market dynamics, and competitive considerations in a rapidly evolving financial landscape.

What to watch next

• Next week: the SAVE America Act advances to the floor, potentially shifting parliamentary attention away from market structure temporarily.
• February–April window: the Banking Committee’s markups and the timing of a formal clause-by-clause path for the market structure bill remain uncertain.
• CBDC-related provisions: tracking whether amendments to the housing bill gain support and whether the CBDC prohibition remains in force through 2030.
• Committee dynamics: observers will monitor whether tokenization, ethics standards, and stablecoins gain clearer language in subsequent drafts.

Sources & verification

• Punchbowl News: Report on Thune’s comments and the scheduling of the SAVE America Act and market structure bill (https://punchbowl.news/article/finance/economy/housing-bill-drama/).
• CNBC: Article on Trump and the SAVE America Act and Senate discussions (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/12/trump-save-america-act-senate-2026-elections.html).
• Cointelegraph: Discussion of the Crypto US Clarity Act andBernie Moreno’s stance (https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-us-clarity-act-coinbase-brian-armstrong-bernie-moreno).
• Cointelegraph: Report on the CBDC ban amendment and its housing-bill context (https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-senate-votes-cbdc-ban-amendment).

Market reaction and key details

The stalled momentum around a comprehensive crypto market-structure package reflects a broader liquidity and risk sentiment environment shaped by regulatory uncertainty. While there is bipartisan interest in providing clarity for digital assets, the pathway remains obstructed by deeply held views on how to address tokenized equities, stablecoins, and governance ethics. The Senate’s focus on the SAVE America Act signals a prioritization of voter policy matters that can affect election dynamics and, by extension, fiscal and regulatory discourse around crypto. With the House’s CLARITY Act version already cleared in the prior session, senators are weighing how to reconcile differences that can affect enforcement, investor protections, and the scope of oversight for automated trading and derivatives markets tied to digital assets.

As the White House hosts meetings between crypto and banking representatives, the absence of a final accord demonstrates the complexity of achieving cross-cutting reforms that satisfy diverse stakeholders—from consumer advocates to financial incumbents. In practical terms, a protracted process could keep certain crypto products in a regulatory limbo, delaying new product launches or exchange listings that hinge on definitive compliance standards. However, even amid delays, the policy conversation remains a catalyst for price discovery, risk assessment, and strategic planning within the broader crypto ecosystem, where participants continuously weigh regulatory signals against market fundamentals.

In the background, the CBDC amendment to the housing bill adds a distinct dimension to policy debates: it embodies the current administration’s stance on central bank money and its potential implications for competition, financial stability, and monetary policy. Should the amendment persist through legislative scrutiny, it would send a clear message about the boundaries of central-bank digital currencies in the United States, at least through the 2030 horizon, while leaving room for private-sector innovation in digital payments. The evolving picture invites market participants to monitor not only committee votes and floor debates but also executive-branch messaging and regulatory posture as the year advances.

What to watch next

• Tracking the SAVE America Act’s progress in the Senate and any scheduling moves that could affect the crypto market-structure debate.
• Updates on the Banking Committee’s markup timeline for market structure legislation and whether a compromise emerges before April.
• Signals on CBDC-related amendments within the housing bill and potential implications for digital currency policy.

BlackRock today debuted the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF (Nasdaq: ETHB) — the firm’s first crypto exchange-traded fund to incorporate staking and its third spot crypto ETF overall.

In a press release from BlackRock today, March 12, the world’s largest asset manager, with $14 trillion in AUM, said that ETHB will stake “a portion of its ether holdings.” Per the asset manager’s dedicated webpage for the fund, Coinbase Prime will provide ETH custody — and presumably staking services.

The Defiant first reported when BlackRock registered its staked Ethereum ETF last November, which came about four months after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledged BlackRock’s filing to permit staking in its Ethereum ETFs.

ETHB is BlackRock’s first yield-bearing ETF, though it’s not first to market among staked ETH funds in the U.S. REX-Osprey launched ESK — the first U.S. staked ETH ETF, under the 1940 Act — in September 2025, and Grayscale enabled staking on its ETH and SOL products in October, as The Defiant reported.

The broader push dates back to March of last year, when Cboe proposed adding staking to existing Ethereum ETFs.

BlackRock is the dominant crypto ETF issuer by net assets across both its spot ETH and BTC ETFs. The firm’s spot Ethereum ETF, ETHA, holds just under $6.6 billion in net assets as of March 11, per data from SoSoValue. That represents more than 50% of the U.S. Ethereum ETF market, which currently stands at $11.85 billion.

Among spot Bitcoin ETFs, BlackRock’s IBIT commands over $55 billion — also well over half of the $90.89 billion in total net assets across all spot BTC ETFs trading in the U.S., per SoSoValue.

After a multi-day net outflow streak, Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows over the past two trading days, recording over $57 million in inflows yesterday, March 11.

Meanwhile, today, spot ETH is trading just over $2,060 at publishing time, per data from The Defiant’s price tracker.

Despite ETH stagnating in a tight range in recent months, the amount of ETH staked on the network continues to break new highs, reaching over 37.6 million ETH as of March 11.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

Executives at Coinbase have denied allegations that the crypto exchange is blocking a de minimis tax exemption for Bitcoin (BTC) transactions below a certain threshold to push for stablecoin tax exemptions.

Several Bitcoin advocates speculated on social media that the exchange told US lawmakers that a BTC tax exemption is not needed because BTC is not widely used as a medium of exchange.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong responded by calling the allegations “totally false” and a form of misinformation.

“I’ve spent a bunch of time lobbying for Bitcoin’s de minimis tax exemption, and will continue doing so. It’s obviously the right thing,” he said.

In separate posts, Paul Grewal, chief legal officer at Coinbase, said, “We’ve never lobbied against BTC,” while Faryar Shirzad, the crypto exchange’s chief policy officer, echoed the statement.

Cointelegraph reached out to Coinbase, but the company declined to comment beyond the responses made by its executives.

Tax policy is one of the main impediments to Bitcoin’s use as a payment method, according to advocates for the biggest crypto, as every sale or transfer would trigger a taxable event, prohibiting its use as an electronic cash system.

Related: Wyoming Senator revives crypto tax exemption debate amid market structure talks

BTC advocates and pro-crypto lawmakers push for BTC tax exemption

In July 2025, US Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced a bill proposing a de minimis tax exemption for cryptocurrency transactions of $300 or less, with a $5,000 annual exemption cap.

However, the bill failed to gain traction, and the de minimis exemption for BTC transactions is not included in the CLARITY Act draft legislation, according to advocacy group the Bitcoin Policy Institute. 

Instead, the tax exemption will apply only to US dollar-pegged stablecoins, according to Conner Brown, the managing director for the Bitcoin Policy Institute. 

Washington, DC-based crypto advocacy group Blockchain Association also outlined a crypto tax proposal and submitted the plan to US lawmakers in February.

The proposal called for exemptions on “low-dollar” crypto transactions, but did not specify a dollar amount.

“A meaningful de minimis exemption for digital asset transactions would eliminate disproportionately onerous reporting for individual taxpayers,” the proposal said.

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