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BTC faces fresh resistance near $71,000

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(Kaiko)

Bitcoin’s rebound from last week’s selloff is already running into a wall.

After briefly sliding into the low-$60,000s in a capitulation-style move last week, the largest cryptocurrency snapped back toward the $70,000 level over the weekend but momentum has since faded.

That stall has traders re-framing the bounce as a classic bear-market pattern a sharp relief rally that draws in dip buyers, only to meet a wave of supply from investors looking to exit at better prices.

“There is still a huge supply in the markets from those who want to exit the first cryptocurrency on the rebound,” FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said in an email. “In such conditions, it is worth being prepared for a new test of the 200-week moving average soon.”

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“We remain very sceptical about the near future, as the recovery momentum lost steam over the weekend, encountering a sell-off near the $2.4T level. Perhaps we have only seen a bounce on the way down, which is not yet complete,” he added.

Sentiment data paints a similarly fragile picture. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sank to 6 over the weekend to reach the same levels as an FTX-led 2022 downturn, before recovering to 14 by late Monday.

Kuptsikevich said those readings remain “too low levels for confident purchases,” arguing the shift reflects more than temporary nerves.

Liquidity conditions are adding to the unease. With thinner order books, modest sell pressure can produce outsized moves, which then triggers additional stop-outs and liquidations a feedback loop that makes price action feel disorderly.

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That dynamic, rather than a single headline, can explain why bitcoin can swing thousands of dollars in a session while still failing to break through key resistance.

A Kaiko note on Monday described the backdrop as a broader risk-off unwind. It said aggregate trading volumes across major centralized exchanges have declined by roughly 30% since October and November, with monthly spot volumes dropping from around $1 trillion to the $700 billion range.

(Kaiko)

(Kaiko)

The firm said that although last week saw a few sharp bursts of trading, the broader trend has been a steady drop in participation. That points to traders, particularly retail investors, gradually leaving the market rather than being forced out all at once.

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When liquidity thins like this, prices can slide quickly on relatively modest selling pressure, without the kind of heavy, panic-driven volume that usually signals a clear capitulation and a durable bottom.

Kaiko also framed the move within the familiar four-year halving cycle logic. Bitcoin peaked around $126,000 in late 2025/early 2026 and has since retraced sharply, with the pullback into the $60,000-$70,000 zone representing a roughly 50%-plus drawdown from the highs.

Historically, those bottoms can take months to develop and often feature multiple failed rallies.

For now, bitcoin’s ability to hold the $60,000 area is the key tell. If buyers continue to defend it, the market may settle into a choppy consolidation. If not, the same thin-liquidity dynamics that fueled the washout could return quickly, especially if broader macro conditions stay risk-off.

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Aave V4 Launches on Ethereum Mainnet

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Aave V4 Launches on Ethereum Mainnet


Announced at EthCC in Cannes, the upgrade enables institution-specific borrowing environments, structured credit products, and RWA-backed lending within a unified liquidity system.

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Australia passes crypto regulation requiring exchanges to obtain financial services licenses

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Australia passes crypto regulation requiring exchanges to obtain financial services licenses

Australia passed legislation on Wednesday, creating its first comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets that requires crypto exchanges and custody providers to obtain financial services licenses.

The Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Bill 2025 cleared both houses on April 1, bringing firms that hold digital assets on behalf of customers into the existing Australian Financial Services Licence regime.

Australia’s bill creates two new regulated categories under the Corporations Act: digital asset platforms, which hold crypto on behalf of users, and tokenized custody platforms, which hold real-world assets and issue a corresponding digital token.

Operators of both must obtain an Australian Financial Services License from ASIC, bringing them under the same core rules as brokers or fund managers, including requirements to safeguard client assets, provide standardized disclosures, avoid misleading conduct, and maintain dispute resolution and compensation systems.

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Instead of regulating crypto itself, the law targets the companies in the middle that control customer funds, aiming to reduce risks like commingling, insolvency, and misuse of assets that have caused losses in past crypto failures.

Research from the Digital Finance Cooperative Research Center and industry groups estimates Australia could generate as much as A$24 billion annually from tokenized markets, payments, and digital assets, roughly 1% of GDP. Under the previous regulatory path, the country was on track to capture just A$1 Billion of that by 2030.

A Kraken spokesperson said the law provides a “top-down signal” that Australia is serious about digital assets, adding that clearer rules would give firms confidence to invest and expand locally.

Kate Cooper, CEO of OKX Australia and co-chair of the Digital Economy Council of Australia, called the bill a “pivotal moment,” saying it establishes a foundation for institutional participation and long-term capital allocation.

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Price of tungsten, sulfur and helium

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How the Iran war is squeezing metals markets and key industries

Almonty’s tungsten mine in Sangdong, South Korea, in March 2026.

Almonty

BEIJING — The Iran war is squeezing a global commodities market already pressured by China’s export controls and stockpiling efforts.

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Prices of three niche elements — tungsten, sulfur and helium — have climbed sharply in recent weeks.

While none of the commodities are traded as widely as oil, the surge indicates how ripple effects from the Middle East conflict could end up restricting production of the semiconductors that power artificial intelligence advances.

Tungsten, a metal nearly as hard as a diamond, creates the electrical connection in the core of a semiconductor chip. Sulfuric acid, a byproduct of sulfur, cleans chip wafers. Helium enables smooth production of semiconductors since the gas prevents unwanted chemical reactions in the manufacturing process.

Those are just some of the ways in which the three elements have become critical for modern manufacturing, including for defense.

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Beijing started to ramp up its control over the critical supplies even before the Iran war started on Feb. 28, partly as tensions with the U.S. escalated over the last few years.

China started restricting tungsten exports just over a year ago, and in December called for tighter limits on sulfuric acid exports. Helium, a gas that’s difficult to store, saw the volume of Chinese imports rise by 15.7% in 2025, after a nearly 65% surge in 2024, according to Wind Information.

The Iran war and the ensuing constraints on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical Middle East shipping route for energy and chemicals, has tipped some oversupply situations into undersupply, while exacerbating existing shortages.

How the Iran war is squeezing metals markets and key industries

Prices of the three commodities have jumped in some cases by more than oil. The widely used fossil fuel has climbed by more than 50% in March, putting Brent on track for a record month.

“While the Chinese supply chain is being viewed as more resilient than many peers, the risk of disruption in chemicals as raw materials for manufacturers in selected segments is higher than expected based on the feedback,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report late last week, citing nearly 40 commodity-related meetings and site visits in China.

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Tungsten

Tungsten hit a record high of over $3,000 late last week, marking a surge of well over 50% for the month and more than tripling in price since late December. That’s based on the industry benchmark called “ammonium para tungstate (APT)” in metric ton units, or MTU, from Fastmarket, as quoted by tungsten miner Almonty.

Almonty officially reopened a large tungsten mine in Sangdong, South Korea, earlier this month, and plans to start producing some tungsten this year at a project in the U.S. state of Montana.

The company’s CEO Lewis Black told CNBC that defense sector demand for tungsten has been “extremely strong” since the beginning of last year, but that there’s been no notable change despite the Iran war.

“There’s no material to stockpile. That’s probably the biggest change,” he said.

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Sulfur

The price of sulfuric acid in Africa is now at least 30% higher than it was prior to the war, and is still rising, the Goldman Sachs analysts said, citing a local Chinese miner in Africa.

Other assessments point to a milder rise in prices.

China sulfur prices, including cost and freight, climbed by about 13% from early March to $621 per tonne as of March 26, according to S&P Global Platts.

“A 2-3 month effective blockade would likely become a severe supply shock, especially as freight/insurance stay elevated and Middle East-origin cargoes become harder to execute,” Pan Yuya, lead analyst for sulfur and phosphate raw materials at S&P Global Energy, and Isaac Zhao, senior principal analyst, China fertilizers at S&P Global Energy, said in a March 20 note.

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The S&P analysts said that around 56% of China’s sulfur imports came from the Middle East in 2025.

“Even prior to the Middle East conflict, sulfur prices were rising sharply as the market tightened. With sulfur prices now at fresh record highs, the ‘super squeeze’ in this rather obscure commodity in supply warrants further examination,” HSBC analysts said in a March 16 report.

Helium

Helium prices have roughly doubled since the Iran war began, according to Fitch Ratings.

As most trading occurs through long-term private contracts between industrial gas suppliers and manufacturers, it is difficult to pinpoint industry-wide prices, said Shelley Jang, Fitch’s director of Asia-Pacific corporate ratings.

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Iranian missile attacks this month crippled a key industrial center in Qatar, which produces about one-third of the world’s helium.

That implies helium supply won’t be restored anytime soon, pointed out Christopher Ecclestone, principal and mining strategist at Hallgarten & Company.

In one indication of further market tightness, prices of helium in China’s Henan province have reversed a downturn this year to climb from a Feb. 28 low of 545 yuan ($78.85) a bottle to 600 yuan ($86.81), according to Wind Information.

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Shortages caused by the Iran war are the latest supply chain disruption to rock global markets, which faced similar shocks from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the Covid-19 pandemic. That’s pushed companies to diversify, and countries such as China to ramp up stockpiling plans.

“Access to supplies of certain physical materials where production and processing is concentrated in China will become more frequent topics of negotiations with Beijing,” Rhodium Group said in a March 24 report.

Limited price transparency also means the shortage could be worse than available numbers suggest.

Tungsten and helium prices have been surging, “but you don’t have anyone on the buy side saying, ‘oh my goodness, we don’t have enough product,’” Ecclestone said. “Defense contractors should have warehouses of tungsten, but they don’t.”

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“The world has got lazy. It thinks life is like a supermarket, the product is a pack of cornflakes or a few tons of sulfuric acid,” he said. “The supermarket of commodities has had a few of the aisles chopped down.”

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Valinor Raises $25M Seed Round to Bring Private Credit Onchain

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Valinor Raises $25M Seed Round to Bring Private Credit Onchain


The ex-Blackstone team wants to move beyond crypto-collateralized loans and into ‘real economy credit’ as the tokenized RWA sector continues to grow.

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Fidelity says Bitcoin’s Cycle Drawdown is the Mildest Yet

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Fidelity says Bitcoin’s Cycle Drawdown is the Mildest Yet

Bitcoin has declined by about 50% this market cycle, far less than in previous cycles, Fidelity Digital Assets said, adding this trend could continue over time. 

Bitcoin’s post-all-time-high drawdowns have historically been steep, at about 80% to 90%, but this cycle has been about 50%, Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst Zack Wainwright said Tuesday.

One can see the “diminishing returns” that have developed from cycle to cycle when looking at Bitcoin’s price performance from the perspective of the previous all-time high, he said.

“Each cycle has been less dramatic to the upside than the previous,” he said. “Downside risk has been less dramatic in 2026, the current cycle, as well,” he added. 

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Bitcoin’s price hit its current cycle low of just over $60,000 on Feb. 6, a decline of 52% from its Oct. 6 all-time high of about $126,000, according to TradingView. It is currently down 46% from its peak six months ago. 

The previous cycle saw a much larger decline of 77%, from the 2021 all-time high of $69,000 to a bear market low just below $16,000 in November 2022. 

Bitcoin may bottom in late September

Fidelity’s assessment that this Bitcoin cycle is notably shallower than prior cycles “indicates a maturing market with reduced volatility and stronger institutional confidence,” Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph on Wednesday. 

“This shift signals that Bitcoin is changing from a speculative asset toward a more stable store of value, potentially paving the way for greater adoption in the future.”

Related: Bitcoin’s $10K range expected to hold until spot traders show up: Data

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Meanwhile, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson observed Tuesday that Bitcoin’s top occurred 534 days after the last halving, a shorter span than in the previous cycle.

This “decaying pattern” across cycles suggests the historical bottom may occur between 912 and 922 days after the halving, which “points to a bottom in late September or early October 2026,” he said. 

BTC is below key daily moving averages 

Bitcoin remains below the key 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, two long-term trend indicators. 

It is hovering at the 200-week EMA, around $68,000, which has served as a key level of support during previous market downturns. 

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BTC remains below key daily moving averages. Source: TradingView

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