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BTC faces fresh resistance near $71,000

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(Kaiko)

Bitcoin’s rebound from last week’s selloff is already running into a wall.

After briefly sliding into the low-$60,000s in a capitulation-style move last week, the largest cryptocurrency snapped back toward the $70,000 level over the weekend but momentum has since faded.

That stall has traders re-framing the bounce as a classic bear-market pattern a sharp relief rally that draws in dip buyers, only to meet a wave of supply from investors looking to exit at better prices.

“There is still a huge supply in the markets from those who want to exit the first cryptocurrency on the rebound,” FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said in an email. “In such conditions, it is worth being prepared for a new test of the 200-week moving average soon.”

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“We remain very sceptical about the near future, as the recovery momentum lost steam over the weekend, encountering a sell-off near the $2.4T level. Perhaps we have only seen a bounce on the way down, which is not yet complete,” he added.

Sentiment data paints a similarly fragile picture. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sank to 6 over the weekend to reach the same levels as an FTX-led 2022 downturn, before recovering to 14 by late Monday.

Kuptsikevich said those readings remain “too low levels for confident purchases,” arguing the shift reflects more than temporary nerves.

Liquidity conditions are adding to the unease. With thinner order books, modest sell pressure can produce outsized moves, which then triggers additional stop-outs and liquidations a feedback loop that makes price action feel disorderly.

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That dynamic, rather than a single headline, can explain why bitcoin can swing thousands of dollars in a session while still failing to break through key resistance.

A Kaiko note on Monday described the backdrop as a broader risk-off unwind. It said aggregate trading volumes across major centralized exchanges have declined by roughly 30% since October and November, with monthly spot volumes dropping from around $1 trillion to the $700 billion range.

(Kaiko)

(Kaiko)

The firm said that although last week saw a few sharp bursts of trading, the broader trend has been a steady drop in participation. That points to traders, particularly retail investors, gradually leaving the market rather than being forced out all at once.

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When liquidity thins like this, prices can slide quickly on relatively modest selling pressure, without the kind of heavy, panic-driven volume that usually signals a clear capitulation and a durable bottom.

Kaiko also framed the move within the familiar four-year halving cycle logic. Bitcoin peaked around $126,000 in late 2025/early 2026 and has since retraced sharply, with the pullback into the $60,000-$70,000 zone representing a roughly 50%-plus drawdown from the highs.

Historically, those bottoms can take months to develop and often feature multiple failed rallies.

For now, bitcoin’s ability to hold the $60,000 area is the key tell. If buyers continue to defend it, the market may settle into a choppy consolidation. If not, the same thin-liquidity dynamics that fueled the washout could return quickly, especially if broader macro conditions stay risk-off.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Struggles to Maintain $67K, Pi Network’s PI Plunges After Recent Rally: Weekend Watch

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BTCUSD Mar 8. Source: TradingView


PI has erased much of the recent gains, but still trades around $0.20.

Bitcoin’s underwhelming price moves over the weekend continued as the asset dipped below $67,000 earlier today for the first time since Tuesday.

Most altcoins are also in the red today, with ETH slipping further away from the coveted $2,000 level, while ADA and XMR are down by over 2%. ZEC and PI have dumped the most daily.

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BTC Fights for $67K

Last weekend brought intense volatility for the crypto markets after the US and Israel attacked Iran. BTC dropped immediately from $67,000 to $63,000 but rebounded within the day to $68,000 after reports that the Iranian Supreme Leader was killed during the attacks.

The gains continued by the middle of the business week when bitcoin peaked at $74,000, a level not seen in a month. However, the bears stepped up at this moment and didn’t allow for any further increases.

Just the opposite; BTC started to lose value but dumped the most on Friday after a weak US jobs report and Trump’s latest threats and remarks on Iran and Cuba. It slipped further on Sunday, dipping to $66,600, which became its lowest level since Tuesday. However, it reacted well and now trades almost a grand higher.

As of now, BTC’s market cap has settled at $1.350 trillion, while its dominance over the alts sits quietly at 56.6% on CG.

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BTCUSD Mar 8. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD Mar 8. Source: TradingView

PI Nosedives

Pi Network’s native token defied the overall market correction in the past few days, skyrocketing to a three-month peak of over $0.23 yesterday. However, it failed there, and the subsequent rejection has pushed it south hard to $0.20 as of press time. ZEC follows suit in terms of daily losses and now struggles below $200.

Most larger-cap alts are also in the red, but in a less painful manner. ETH has decisively broken below the $2,000 level after another minor decline, while BNB is down to $620. SOL, XRP, ADA, XMR, and LINK are also down today.

The total crypto market cap has shed around $30 billion daily and is below $2.4 trillion as of now on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview Mar 8. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview Mar 8. Source: QuantifyCrypto

 

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Sell-off To $65K Likely As Traders Run From Global Risks

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Bitcoin Sell-off To $65K Likely As Traders Run From Global Risks

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin faced pressure as rising oil prices and weak US data sparked risk-off sentiment and drove investors to gold.

  • A redemption spike in private credit funds from BlackRock and Blackstone signaled growing anxiety among retail investors.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a 7% correction between Thursday and Friday following a failed attempt to reclaim the $74,000 level. The pullback tracked weak US macroeconomic data and a spike in oil prices as the US and Israel-Iran war entered its seventh day. Traders now question whether Bitcoin can maintain support above $65,000.

Typically, deteriorating economic conditions pave the way for monetary stimulus, often boosting the stock market in anticipation of increased liquidity. However, this cycle saw the S&P 500 retreat as a generalized risk-off sentiment erased all of Bitcoin’s gains from Wednesday. 

S&P 500 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

US retail sales fell 0.2% in January compared to the previous month, while the US economy shed 92,000 jobs in February. Despite the cooling labor market, investors lack confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further, as rising energy costs typically generate inflationary pressure. 

Fed target rate probabilities for April 2026 FOMC. Source: CME FedWatch Tool

US Treasury markets currently price a 78% probability that interest rates will remain steady between 3.5% and 3.75% through late April. A flight to safety pattern emerged as gold surged while the Russell 2000 Small Capitalization index hit a two-month low. Bitcoin’s drop below $85,000 in late January hindered its reputation as an uncorrelated asset, especially as silver rose to become the second most valuable asset.

Largest tradable assets by market capitalization, USD. Source: 8marketcap

Traders also fear a wave of corporate layoffs driven by artificial intelligence automation. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid noted that AI is increasingly filling roles that once required manual labor. Schmid added that “older Americans are retiring,” causing a real-time structural change in the labor market, according to Yahoo Finance.

War and credit strain weigh on Bitcoin’s outlook

A prolonged war suggests increased US government spending, reducing the fiscal capacity for monetary stimulus aimed at economic expansion. Investors increasingly fear rising logistics costs beyond the commodities sector. Shipping giant Maersk announced on Friday the temporary suspension of two routes connecting the Middle East to Asia and Europe.

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Bitcoin’s retest of the $68,000 level on Friday indicates that technical resistance levels identified by analysts may be secondary to geopolitical events impacting the oil and energy industries and, by extension, global growth prospects. The current weakness in risk assets appears to be a reflection of poor macroeconomic visibility rather than a structural collapse.

Related: Lyn Alden tips Bitcoin outperforming gold over next ‘two to three years’

ICE Bank of America US high yield index option-adjusted spread. Source: TradingView

A potential deterioration in trader expectations could originate within the US private credit market. BlackRock reportedly limited withdrawals from one of its largest credit funds following a spike in redemption requests, according to a Bloomberg report on Friday. Earlier this week, Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund fulfilled requests to tender a record 7.9% of shares, signaling rising retail anxiety.

Currently, the 3% option-adjusted spread for riskier firms is hovering within the normal range seen over the last six months. Periods of significant economic turmoil typically push this indicator above 5.0%, a level last seen in March 2023. As a result, there is no clear sign that Bitcoin will break below $65,000, even with the ongoing uncertainty surrounding global economic growth.