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BTC holding in tight range as markets brace for January employment data

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Bitcoin's volatility spikes to its highest since FTX's collapse as prices crater to nearly $60,000

Following the usual recent pattern, crypto markets fell sharply as U.S. stocks opened for trade Tuesday, but recovered most of those losses in a similarly quick fashion.

In mid-morning trade, bitcoin was at $69,200, down marginally from 24 hours ago. Ether underperformed, down 1.8%, with similar declines in XRP and Solana .

While bitcoin’s current drawdown is the most significant since the 2024 halving, trading volume stayed low during the decline, suggesting retail investors stepped back rather than rushed to sell, according to Kaiko.

The “market [is now] approaching critical technical support levels that will determine whether the four-year cycle framework remains intact,” Kaiko research analyst Laurens Fraussen wrote in a report Tuesday.

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Trading firm Wintermute expects bitcoin to remain in the current range as it’s still in price discovery.

Recent bitcoin moves have been driven by leveraged derivatives rather than spot demand, the firm said, with light spot volumes leaving prices sensitive to crowded positions. Wintermute pointed to last Friday’s rebound as a short squeeze in perpetual futures and said the return of volatility caught investors off guard after a period of complacency.

January jobs report on tap

Originally scheduled for last Friday, the government’s January Nonfarm Payrolls Report is now coming out on Wednesday morning due to the brief federal shutdown last month.

Economist forecasts are for 70,000 jobs to have been added, up from 50,000 in December. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%.

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White House trade counselor Peter Navarro, however, said in a Fox interview Tuesday that expectations need to be significantly revised lower. His comments follow those of White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, who advised markets not to panic on weak jobs data.

Those remarks appear to have been noted by the bond market, where the 10-year Treasury yield is lower by 5 basis points to 4.14%. Lower interest rates and easier Federal Reserve monetary policy are typically assumed to be good for assets like bitcoin, but it hasn’t been the case this cycle, with bitcoin plunging even as the Fed has trimmed rates by 75 basis points in recent months.

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Crypto World

$80M Hyperliquid Whale Bet Predicts Bitcoin Crash and Oil Rally

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$80M Hyperliquid Whale Bet Predicts Bitcoin Crash and Oil Rally

Key takeaways:

  • A Hyperliquid whale placed an $80 million bet against Bitcoin and the S&P 500 while going long on Brent crude oil prices.

  • The whale’s history of massive losses and inconsistent signals suggests the trade could fall on the wrong side of the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) showed strength on Wednesday, bouncing back from Tuesday’s $66,000 low after President Donald Trump teased a potential ceasefire in the US and Israel-Iran war. Even with Bitcoin trading above $68,000, one whale used Hyperliquid DEX to place an $80 million bet on a market collapse. 

Traders are now watching closely to see if this whale’s massive position signals a looming Bitcoin price drop.

Hyperliquid whale 0x94d373…c933814 position. Source: CoinGlass

The Hyperliquid whale, linked to address 0x94d373…c933814, carefully built this nearly $80 million leveraged position between Tuesday and Wednesday. The trade includes a $40 million short (sell) on Bitcoin futures near $68,760, a $2 million short on synthetic S&P 500 Index contracts, and a $37 million long (buy) in synthetic Brent oil contracts.

Crude Brent oil (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

The whale’s aggregate position leverage stood at 7 times, indicating high conviction. The Bitcoin futures liquidation price was $80,083, while the Brent oil position would be forcefully terminated above $93. The timing of the trade is curious as S&P 500 Index futures gained 4% between Tuesday and Wednesday as traders anticipate the US and Israel-Iran war dissipating over the next few weeks.

On Wednesday, President Trump said “Iran’s New Regime President” is considering a “ceasefire,” although the conditions to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain unknown. Iran demands reparations and sovereignty. Thus, one could assume that the Hyperliquid whale is counter-trading the market’s optimistic take, betting that Brent crude oil prices will jump while Bitcoin loses its value.

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This Hyperliquid whale previously lost $40 million

This address belongs to a particularly unlucky whale, or at least one who has been extremely unsuccessful since late January. The Hyperliquid whale apparently uses bots for execution, given the sheer number of small trades that build into huge positions, but it still managed to lose $37 million in its first month of activity in December 2025.

The same user was flagged by X user ‘lookonchain’ on Feb. 5 after taking a massive loss on leveraged bullish bets on Ether (ETH), Bitcoin, Solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP). 

Source: X/lookonchain

According to the analysis, the whale had previously made $25 million in profits from shorts in multiple cryptocurrencies, but decided to flip the position on Feb. 4, resulting in a $40 million loss. There is no way to know exactly what triggered this entity to place those bets, but the event proves that even whales can misinterpret the market.

Related: Warren Buffett bought $17B in US T-bills: A bad omen for Bitcoin price?

The erratic signals from President Trump regarding a potential full-on invasion and the war in Iran leave room for opposing views. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied there were talks for a ceasefire but confirmed to Al Jazeera on Tuesday that there was an intention to end the war, according to CNBC.

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Given the history of this whale’s market positioning and its track record of losing trades, it’s possible that the current $80 million bet may fall on the wrong side of the market.