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BTC price retreats from monthly high as overbought conditions persist: Crypto Markets Today

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BTC price retreats from monthly high as overbought conditions persist: Crypto Markets Today

Bitcoin consolidated Tuesday after hitting $76,000, the highest level since Feb. 4, in early trading. The largest cryptocurrency fell back to just below $73,500, down 1.5% since midnight UTC.

It’s not the only cryptocurrency to have cooled. Ether (ETH) lost 1.5%, solana (SOL) dropped by 2.5% and 4.5%.

Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures, in contrast, rose by 0.6% despite oil trading above $100 per barrel and the war in Iran continuing to rage.

Despite the decline in crypto markets, the average relative strength index (RSI) remains firmly in “overbought” territory, suggesting further drops toward $72,000 may be on the cards.

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However, such a move would resemble a period of consolidation after bitcoin rose by more than 15% from $65,000 since March 8.

A bounce between $72,000 and $74,000 would indicate a fresh level of support being formed, potentially serving as a platform for an ascent to above $80,000.

Derivatives positioning

  • Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) has increased 2% to a three-week high of 685.2K BTC. This, coupled with positive cumulative volume delta (CVD), indicates a bias for bullish long bets.
  • Ether’s futures activity also exhibits bitcoin-like bullishness.
  • SOL’s market is flashing mixed signals. An upswing in OI is accompanied by negative funding rates and near-zero CVD, indicative of a bearish tinge.
  • ADA and BCH stand out with slight declines in OI, a sign of capital outflows.
  • Options traders seem more bearish on bitcoin than ether. On Deribit, bitcoin puts expiring in the near-term trade at a greater premium to calls than ether puts.
  • Volatility strategies such as straddles dominated bitcoin block flows. Ether traders chased call spreads and straddles.
  • In BTC’s case, two of the most popular options positions are the $60,000 put and the $75,000 call. Volatility picked up early Tuesday as prices neared $75,000.

Token talk

  • The altcoin market suffered a deeper pullback than the major cryptocurrencies since midnight, with some corners of the market dropping more than 5% after a ferocious rally on Monday.
  • CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” indicator remains at 49/100 — its highest point since the turn of the year — reflecting risk-on altcoin sentiment.
  • The U.S. president-themed memecoin TRUMP lost more than 6% of its value over the past 24 hours as traders locked in profits from last week’s “gala luncheon” announcement.
  • There was a similar tumble for pepe (PEPE) after the frog-themed memecoin led the broader crypto market with a move to the upside on Monday.
  • The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) has been the worst performing benchmark over the past 24 hours, losing around 1% while the CoinDesk 80 (CD80), an index made up of a wide array of altcoins, is up by 1.35%.

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Crypto World

EUR/USD Chart Analysis: Pair Recovers Ahead of Fed News

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EUR/USD Chart Analysis: Pair Recovers Ahead of Fed News

On 10 March, analysing the EUR/USD chart, we:
→ considered the long-term descending channel, which remains relevant;
→ noted that the sequence of lower lows A–H was broken with the appearance of a higher peak I, with 1.1680 potentially acting as resistance.

At peak I, bulls exhausted their strength: after forming a consolidation zone near the channel’s median, bears regained control and pushed the price to a new yearly low, driven by a bearish fundamental backdrop.

Tomorrow, the Fed is expected to release its interest rate decision, while the ECB will issue comments the day after. These events could significantly shift market sentiment regarding EUR/USD, and current price behaviour suggests that bulls may attempt a comeback.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD

Note the following:

→ The descending trendline from last week has been breached; the market is holding above the breakout level around 1.14560.

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→ The pair is recovering from oversold territory just below the lower boundary of the channel. The psychological level 1.1500 may provide support.

Thus, traders should consider the scenario in which EUR/USD’s strong movement on Monday–Tuesday is confirmed by upcoming central bank news.

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Bitcoin Bulls Risk Getting Trapped at Six-Week Highs

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Bitcoin Bulls Risk Getting Trapped at Six-Week Highs

Bitcoin (BTC) risks turning its rebound into a classic “bull trap” as the price rejects at strong resistance.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin faces flat Coinbase spot demand and an open interest divergence as prices rise above $75,000.

  • This risks ending the rebound due to structural weakness, analysis warns.

  • Any push higher toward $80,000 will be “challenging.”

BTC market lacks “spot buying support”

New research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant released on Tuesday warns that the recent BTC price rebound may collapse.

“The Bitcoin market is currently exposing a critical structural vulnerability as it transitions from a healthy spot-led regime to an overheated rally driven primarily by derivatives,” contributor Easy On Chain wrote in a QuickTake blog post.

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Several factors support the theory, including the Coinbase Premium Index — the difference in price between Coinbase’s BTC/USD and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs. 

Despite BTC/USD hitting six-week highs, the index continues to dip into negative territory, pointing to a lack of US spot demand.

“In this absence of spot-buying support, we are witnessing an extreme decoupling between investor cohorts where smart money is tactically distributing its supply,” Easy On Chain continued.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant

Fellow CryptoQuant contributor MAC_D agreed, drawing a clear distinction between old and new investors.

“Recent on-chain data shows that OG investors are distributing, while new investors are entering the market, indicating a clear transfer of ownership,” they wrote in a separate Quicktake post.

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The core issue, however, is with open interest (OI), which shows the market in a precarious situation.

“On the 1-hour timeframe, a divergence between price and open interest is emerging. While the spot market shows strength, futures traders appear reluctant to take on additional risk,” MAC_D continued. 

“If this lack of bullish positioning in the futures market continues, the current move could turn into a bull trap.”

Bitcoin OI chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin price upside will be “challenging”

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin faces a wall of selling pressure in the mid-$70,000 zone, which coincides with old local lows from April 2025.

Related: $58K BTC price still in play? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

Data from CoinGlass shows price stalling midway through that ask-liquidity at $76,000 before reversing.

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BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

Market participants thus remain level-headed when it comes to a broader market recovery. 

In his latest X analysis, Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, referenced various moving average (MA) trend lines and proprietary trading tools to put the odds of a full bull-market comeback in context.

“Bulls are currently attempting to flip resistance at the Q2 2024 Timescape Level, and now psychological resistance at $75k is coming into focus. If bulls can push higher the next targets are at the Q2 2025 Timescape Levels at $78.3k and $82.5k,” he explained.

“The confluence between the moving averages, Timescapes Levels and the structure add strength to those levels, and there is a lot of ask liquidity laddered between here and there that will make that move challenging.”

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Keith Alan/X

Trader Mister Crypto, meanwhile, drew comparisons between current price action and that from earlier in 2026, where BTC/USD offered a relief bounce before breaking below support.