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BTC price retreats from monthly high as overbought conditions persist: Crypto Markets Today

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BTC price retreats from monthly high as overbought conditions persist: Crypto Markets Today

Bitcoin consolidated Tuesday after hitting $76,000, the highest level since Feb. 4, in early trading. The largest cryptocurrency fell back to just below $73,500, down 1.5% since midnight UTC.

It’s not the only cryptocurrency to have cooled. Ether (ETH) lost 1.5%, solana (SOL) dropped by 2.5% and 4.5%.

Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures, in contrast, rose by 0.6% despite oil trading above $100 per barrel and the war in Iran continuing to rage.

Despite the decline in crypto markets, the average relative strength index (RSI) remains firmly in “overbought” territory, suggesting further drops toward $72,000 may be on the cards.

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However, such a move would resemble a period of consolidation after bitcoin rose by more than 15% from $65,000 since March 8.

A bounce between $72,000 and $74,000 would indicate a fresh level of support being formed, potentially serving as a platform for an ascent to above $80,000.

Derivatives positioning

  • Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) has increased 2% to a three-week high of 685.2K BTC. This, coupled with positive cumulative volume delta (CVD), indicates a bias for bullish long bets.
  • Ether’s futures activity also exhibits bitcoin-like bullishness.
  • SOL’s market is flashing mixed signals. An upswing in OI is accompanied by negative funding rates and near-zero CVD, indicative of a bearish tinge.
  • ADA and BCH stand out with slight declines in OI, a sign of capital outflows.
  • Options traders seem more bearish on bitcoin than ether. On Deribit, bitcoin puts expiring in the near-term trade at a greater premium to calls than ether puts.
  • Volatility strategies such as straddles dominated bitcoin block flows. Ether traders chased call spreads and straddles.
  • In BTC’s case, two of the most popular options positions are the $60,000 put and the $75,000 call. Volatility picked up early Tuesday as prices neared $75,000.

Token talk

  • The altcoin market suffered a deeper pullback than the major cryptocurrencies since midnight, with some corners of the market dropping more than 5% after a ferocious rally on Monday.
  • CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” indicator remains at 49/100 — its highest point since the turn of the year — reflecting risk-on altcoin sentiment.
  • The U.S. president-themed memecoin TRUMP lost more than 6% of its value over the past 24 hours as traders locked in profits from last week’s “gala luncheon” announcement.
  • There was a similar tumble for pepe (PEPE) after the frog-themed memecoin led the broader crypto market with a move to the upside on Monday.
  • The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) has been the worst performing benchmark over the past 24 hours, losing around 1% while the CoinDesk 80 (CD80), an index made up of a wide array of altcoins, is up by 1.35%.

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Risk assets surge in pre-market trading as cease fire drives gains across crypto and equities

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Just as BTC tries to steady, the dollar index wakes up

Bitcoin climbed to as high as $72,750 following news of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, before easing back to just below $72,000.

The move came alongside a broader risk on rally in pre-market trading for equities, with the Invesco QQQ gaining more than 3.3% and the iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF (IGV) posting similar strength. Gold also moved higher, rising over 2% to $4,800 per ounce.

In contrast, oil markets sold off sharply. WTI crude dropped to $92 before rebounding to $96 per barrel, still down more than 12.5%, while Brent crude is lower by over 7.5% in the past 24 hours.

Volatility has compressed across both traditional and crypto markets. The VIX is down 20%, while the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility Index (BVIV) has fallen more than 6% to 46, pointing to calmer conditions.

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Crypto-linked equities are also advancing, with Strategy (MSTR), Galaxy Digital (GLXY), Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) all showing healthy gains in pre-market trading. Similarly. AI and HPC data centre firms such as IREN (IREN) and Cipher Digital (CIFR) have gained 7% and 9%, respectively.

Bond markets have stabilised, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield falling 1.5% to 4.2%.

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FOMC Minutes in Focus: USD/JPY and USD/CAD Pull Back from Highs

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FOMC Minutes in Focus: USD/JPY and USD/CAD Pull Back from Highs

The US dollar has shifted into a corrective phase following its previous rally, while market participants adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. The weakening of the dollar has already led to a moderate pullback in USD/JPY and USD/CAD from recent highs, reflecting profit-taking and reduced activity ahead of a key event.

An additional factor influencing the market remains geopolitical tensions, which continue to affect global financial flows. Fluctuations in energy prices and persistent escalation risks are limiting the formation of устойчивых trends, increasing the dependence of currency pairs on incoming macroeconomic data.

Today, investor focus will be on the Federal Reserve minutes, which may help clarify the regulator’s stance on the future path of interest rates. The market will assess the tone of policymakers’ comments, particularly the balance between inflation risks and signs of economic slowdown. Depending on the tone, the market may either extend the dollar’s corrective move or revive demand for the US currency.

USD/JPY

Following a test of the key psychological resistance level at 160.00, USD/JPY has formed an “evening star” candlestick pattern. Technical analysis suggests a potential continuation of the downward correction if the pair holds below 159.20. If buyers manage to secure a move above 160.00, a retest of the yearly highs may follow.

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Key events for USD/JPY:

  • Today at 14:00 (GMT+3): US Mortgage Market Index
  • Today at 21:00 (GMT+3): FOMC Minutes
  • Today at 21:35 (GMT+3): Speech by Fed’s Christopher Waller

USD/CAD

USD/CAD has formed a “dark cloud cover” pattern after a repeated test of the 1.3950 level. If the pair consolidates below 1.3880, the decline may extend towards 1.3780–1.3800. A break above 1.3970 would invalidate the bearish scenario.

Key events for USD/CAD:

  • Today at 13:00 (GMT+3): Canada Leading Economic Index
  • Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US Crude Oil Inventories
  • Today at 18:00 (GMT+3): Canada Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI

The market remains in a corrective and anticipatory phase ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes. The current weakening of the dollar may continue if the Fed adopts a softer tone, while more hawkish signals could restore demand for the US currency and limit the extent of the pullback.

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3 Polymarket Traders Bet on US-Iran Ceasefire, Signaling Forecasts

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Crypto Breaking News

Fresh on-chain analytics show that three newly created wallets pocketed a combined $484,575 from Polymarket’s “US x Iran ceasefire by April 7” market, intensifying scrutiny over insider trading risks in prediction markets. Lookonchain highlighted that these wallets had no prior on-chain activity before placing their bets, suggesting rapid, opportunistic participation around a geopolitical event that drew intense attention.

Polymarket’s public activity feed confirms the three profits—$200,525, $158,600 and $125,450—were realized as trading continued during the period around the ceasefire news. The bets were placed at modest odds, with “yes” positions priced between roughly 2.9% and 10.3%. The payout occurred after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, though both sides left room for the possibility of renewed action. The timing of the trades is notable: the earliest bet was placed at 1:59 pm UTC on Tuesday, roughly eight and a half hours before a Truth Social post by President Donald Trump at 10:32 pm UTC confirming a ceasefire. The other two positions opened at 10:01 am UTC on Tuesday and 8:50 pm UTC on Monday, according to blockchain-trace data.

Source: Lookonchain

The sequence of bets and the subsequent payout underscore a broader conversation about how prediction markets operate during geopolitical flux. As the market settled on a ceasefire timeline, participants with little or no on-chain history reportedly benefited significantly, prompting questions about information asymmetry, liquidity, and whether such patterns reflect legitimate hedging strategies or exploitative activity. While the event resolved into a temporary pause in hostilities, the underlying dynamics have sparked ongoing debate about how to monitor and regulate speculative markets tied to real-world events.

Prediction markets have emerged as a rapidly expanding niche within the crypto landscape. Industry observers note that prediction markets have become one of the fastest-growing uses for crypto, often surpassing $10 billion in monthly trading volume. The trend has drawn attention from policymakers who worry about insider trading and market manipulation that could undermine market integrity and consumer trust.

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Key takeaways

  • Three new Polymarket wallets earned a combined $484,575 from the US x Iran ceasefire by April 7 market, with wallets showing no prior on-chain activity before placing bets.
  • The profits break down as $200,525, $158,600 and $125,450, with yes bets priced between 2.9% and 10.3% odds.
  • One trader placed the first bet at 1:59 pm UTC on Tuesday—about eight and a half hours before the ceasefire confirmation—while the others opened at 10:01 am UTC Tuesday and 8:50 pm UTC Monday, according to on-chain records.
  • Prediction markets continue to attract high volumes (often exceeding $10 billion per month), but they face increasing regulatory scrutiny and calls for stronger market-surveillance measures.
  • Polymarket and Kalshi have started implementing safeguards to deter insider trading, including Kalshi’s independent advisory committee and a partnership with Solidus Labs for market abuse detection.

Geopolitics, markets and the regulatory glare

The episode sits at the intersection of rapid geopolitical news, crypto trading innovation and regulatory pushback. In January, U.S. lawmakers introduced a bill to curb officials from trading on prediction platforms after a Polymarket user reportedly profited more than $400,000 on a market tied to Nicolás Maduro. The proposal aims to reduce potential conflicts of interest and information leakage in sensitive bets, highlighting how policy makers view prediction markets as both open financial experiments and potential governance risks.

Meanwhile, international authorities have pursued legal action against traders seen as abusing information channels. In February, Israeli authorities arrested and indicted two individuals for allegedly using confidential information to place bets on a Polymarket event related to Israel’s potential strike on Iran, with one suspect reportedly connected to the Israeli military. These cases emphasize the stakes for traders and platforms alike, and they have spurred exchanges to bolster their surveillance and compliance programs.

To address the risk of market abuse, Polymarket has pursued ongoing improvements in oversight, while Kalshi has taken notable steps. Kalshi announced the formation of an independent advisory committee and a collaboration with Solidus Labs to enhance detection and investigation of market abuse. These measures are part of a broader push across prediction markets to balance innovation with responsible governance and user protection.

As coverage of these developments has shown, the debate over how to regulate prediction markets is shaping product design and market structure. Regulators are weighing how to preserve legitimate hedging and information discovery functions while curbing manipulation and unfair advantages. For traders and developers alike, the question now is how quickly platforms can operationalize robust surveillance without stifling legitimate participation or curtailing beneficial liquidity.

In the meantime, industry observers and investors will watch how policymakers translate sentiment into concrete guidance. The evolving regulatory backdrop, coupled with high-profile insider-trading concerns, could influence where liquidity flows, which markets gain credibility, and how quickly new participants ramp up their activity in this niche of crypto markets.

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As the sector digests these developments, watchers should keep an eye on public disclosures from prediction-market platforms, updates to anti-manipulation tooling, and any new legislation or regulatory guidance that could shape how users access and interact with event-based markets in the months ahead.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Ethereum Stablecoin Value Hits All-Time High of $180 Billion

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Ethereum Stablecoin Value Hits All-Time High of $180 Billion

The onchain value of stablecoins on the Ethereum network has reached an all-time high of $180 billion, according to blockchain analytics firm Token Terminal.

Ethereum holds 60% of the stablecoin supply at $180 billion, which is up 150% over the past three years, the firm reported Tuesday.

The company projected that around $1.7 trillion is expected to come onchain across all networks over the next four years and that Ethereum could see $850 billion in “new flows” by 2030, if it grows 470% in that time. 

Standard Chartered predicted in late 2025 that more than $1 trillion may exit banks and flow into stablecoins by 2028. 

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Ethereum has been the dominant network for stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), with major financial institutions such as BlackRock, JPMorgan and Amundi launching tokenized funds on the network as the total stablecoin supply across all networks reached a record $315 billion in the first quarter. 

Projections for stablecoin growth on Ethereum. Source: Token Terminal 

Momentum supports bull cycle driven by tokenized assets

Real-world asset metrics provider RWA.xyz reports a slightly lower figure of $168 billion in stablecoin value on Ethereum.

It also confirms that Ethereum is the industry leader with a market share of 56%. This increases to over 65% when EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine) and layer-2 networks such as Arbitrum, ZKsync Era, and Base are included.  

Related: Stablecoin supply reaches $315B in Q1 as USDC rises, USDT declines

The data highlights Ethereum’s dominance in stablecoins and onchain liquidity, “fueling strong positive sentiment and crypto’s recent rally,” Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph on Wednesday.  

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“This momentum strongly supports a sustained long-term bull cycle driven by tokenized assets and institutional adoption, though competition from rival chains, regulatory hurdles, and macro volatility remain key roadblocks to further upside,” he added.

JPMorgan CEO touts tokenization 

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon acknowledged that a “whole new set of competitors is emerging based on blockchain, which includes stablecoins, smart contracts, and other forms of tokenization,” in the annual shareholder letter released on Tuesday. 

The Wall Street bank launched its first tokenized money market fund (MONY) on Ethereum in December. 

“The world’s largest bank is live on Ethereum, and its CEO is publicly saying they’re still not moving fast enough,” stated Ethereum infrastructure startup Etherealize on Tuesday.

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