TLDR:

• Pompliano declared confidence that Bitcoin’s cycle bottom was established at the $60K price level.
• Institutional accumulation by buyers like MicroStrategy created consistent demand against Bitcoin’s fixed supply.
• Pomp argues volatility compression has broken Bitcoin out of its traditional four-year market cycle.
• Bitcoin, stablecoins, and tokenization are the assets Pompliano sees surviving and leading crypto’s next phase.

Bitcoin’s recent price action has renewed debate over whether the market has already seen its cycle low. Anthony Pompliano, widely known as “Pomp,” made a bold claim, stating, “I’m pretty confident that was the bottom at $60K.”

His comments came during a broader discussion on Bitcoin’s fundamentals, institutional adoption, and long-term outlook. The statement has since drawn significant attention from investors watching Bitcoin’s next move closely.

Pompliano Points to $60K as the Cycle Bottom

Pompliano’s confidence in the $60K bottom is rooted in Bitcoin’s core fundamentals. He described Bitcoin as offering “certainty” that traditional assets simply cannot provide.

Unlike gold or U.S. Treasuries, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and transparent monetary policy give investors a clear picture of what they own. That clarity, he argues, is what separates Bitcoin from every other asset class available today.

He also noted that the shift from fear to confidence among investors played a major role in establishing that floor. When prices hovered around $60K, many retail and institutional participants were still hesitant.

Pompliano described this period as one where the market needed to move from “fear to confidence” before a sustained recovery could take hold. That transition, in his view, defined the bottom.

Institutional activity also supported the case for $60K as a turning point. Buyers like Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy were accumulating during that period, adding consistent demand against a fixed supply.

However, Pompliano was careful not to overstate any single buyer’s role, calling the recovery a “confluence of events” rather than the result of one catalyst. Each factor reinforced the other, creating a durable floor.

Pompliano also challenged the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, arguing that “volatility compression” has changed how the market behaves entirely. Price movements now happen faster and with less dramatic drawdowns than in previous cycles.

If that pattern holds, the $60K level may represent the deepest pullback of this cycle. Investors waiting for lower prices, he suggested, may have already missed their entry point.

Bitcoin’s Fundamentals Back the Bullish Case

Beyond the price call, Pompliano laid out the structural reasons Bitcoin is well-positioned from here. He described Bitcoin as “the only asset” offering digital scarcity, decentralization, and a predictable monetary policy at the same time.

In periods of geopolitical tension and economic volatility, those qualities attract serious capital. Investors seeking certainty are finding fewer alternatives outside of Bitcoin.

He also addressed the growing intersection of artificial intelligence and crypto. Pompliano argued that AI systems will increasingly require assets like Bitcoin and stablecoins to operate, framing both industries under the broader theme of “automation.”

Crypto infrastructure, therefore, becomes a foundational layer for the emerging automation economy. Venture firm a16z has already raised a dedicated fund targeting exactly this convergence.

On surviving assets within crypto, Pompliano was direct and unambiguous. He expressed strong conviction in Bitcoin, stablecoins, equity infrastructure, and tokenization as the areas that will endure.

Most altcoins and meme coins, he argued, are unlikely to recover meaningfully. The smarter approach, in his words, is to “provide the venue” for speculation rather than being the one speculating.

While acknowledging that Bitcoin’s days of delivering 100x returns are behind it, Pompliano remains firmly bullish on its long-term performance. He expects Bitcoin to outperform equities over a sustained period.

For investors who missed the $60K entry, his message is straightforward — “the bottom,” by his assessment, is already in.

TLDR:

• Digital Asset is targeting $300M at a $2B valuation, with a16z crypto set to lead the funding round.
• Canton Network has processed over $6 trillion in tokenized assets, drawing major institutional backers globally.
• A16z crypto raised $2.2B for its fifth fund, bringing total dedicated crypto capital to roughly $10 billion.
• Crypto venture deal counts dropped sharply to 97 in Q1 2026, down from 427 in the same quarter last year.

Digital Asset Holdings, the company behind the Canton Network blockchain, is in talks to raise approximately $300 million at a valuation of around $2 billion.

Bloomberg reported the round on Sunday, citing sources familiar with the matter. The financing, led by a16z crypto, is expected to close within weeks. Final figures could still shift before the deal is sealed.

a16z Crypto Takes the Lead in Major Institutional Blockchain Bet

The raise marks a sharp jump from Digital Asset’s earlier funding rounds. In June 2025, the company secured $135 million led by DRW Venture Capital and Tradeweb Markets. Goldman Sachs, Citadel Securities, and DTCC also participated in that round.

A follow-on raise of $50 million came in December 2025 from BNY Mellon, Nasdaq, S&P Global, and iCapital. The new $300 million round would therefore represent a substantial step up in both size and valuation.

For a16z crypto, the investment follows the firm raising $2.2 billion for its fifth dedicated crypto fund. That brings the firm’s total crypto capital to roughly $10 billion across five vehicles.

A16z general partner Ali Yahya addressed the privacy question directly in January, writing that privacy is “the critical missing feature preventing global finance from fully moving onchain.”

That view aligns directly with what Canton Network offers. Unlike Ethereum or Solana, Canton is built with protocol-level privacy and confidentiality guarantees. Those features are central to its pitch for institutional adoption.

Canton Network Gains Traction Across Institutional Finance

Canton is a public, permissionless Layer 1 blockchain with configurable privacy tools. It supports smart contracts written in Digital Asset’s open-source language, Daml.

The network is designed to handle tokenized asset workflows while keeping transaction data confidential between parties.

Institutional momentum has been building steadily. More than $6 trillion in tokenized assets have been issued or processed on the network. In March, Visa became a Canton Super Validator, marking the payments company’s first blockchain governance role.

Visa later added Canton to its stablecoin settlement pilot in April, alongside Base, Polygon, Arc, and Tempo. Also in March, a project called Zenith completed atomic swaps between Canton and an EVM-compatible environment, opening a potential bridge to Ethereum developers.

In November, Canton Strategic Holdings raised $540 million to build a Canton Coin treasury. Backers included DRW, ARK Invest, and Kraken. The broader venture picture, however, remains uneven.

Quarterly crypto deal counts fell to 97 in Q1 2026, down from 427 in the same period a year earlier, per The Block. Some historically active crypto funds are increasingly shifting focus toward AI and robotics.

Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, signaled that the Bitcoin treasury company will resume its BTC purchases this week, following an earnings call on Tuesday, during which he said the company may periodically sell portions of its treasury.

“Back to work, BTC,” Saylor said in an X post on Sunday, messaging that has previously preceded a BTC purchase, which typically the day after his posts.

The company last purchased BTC on April 27, buying 3,273 coins for about $255 million, which brought its total holdings to 818,334 BTC. Those holdings were worth about $61.8 billion, according to Strategy’s website at the time of publication.

Strategy’s history of Bitcoin purchases since 2020. Source: SaylorTracker.com

The company paused its BTC buying streak for one week ahead of Tuesday’s first quarter 2026 earnings call, in which Saylor said that the company could sell portions of its Bitcoin holdings periodically to pay dividends to holders of its credit instruments.

The announcement appeared to contradict the company’s previous stance of never selling BTC, and the sales could weigh on Bitcoin’s market price by introducing new selling pressure, critics of the move say.

Related: Bitcoin’s recent rally is largely fueled by Strategy purchases: Bitwise’s Hougan

Strategy CEO says dividend-funding sale could “inoculate” the market

“We’ll probably sell some Bitcoin to fund a dividend, just to inoculate the market, just to send the message that we did it,” Saylor said during Strategy’s Q1 earnings call.

The announcement drew mixed reactions from the Bitcoin community, with some, like Strategy investor Adam Livingston, arguing that periodic sales will be accretive for the company’s treasury, allowing it to finance the purchase of more BTC in the future.

Strategy’s Bitcoin per share since 2020, measured in sats, the base unit of Bitcoin. Source: SaylorTracker.com

Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow said Strategy’s ability to sell BTC gives it optionality and greater room to maneuver in the financial markets.

Others social media sentiment posited that Strategy’s Bitcoin sales and credit instruments will create a “doom loop” that suppresses the spot market price of BTC.

Strategy CEO Phong Le clarified that the company would only sell BTC in specific instances, including paying dividend yields and deferring taxes, and that neither its sales nor purchases should affect Bitcoin’s market price.

Bitcoin’s average daily trading volume of more than $60 billion could easily absorb Strategy’s $1.5 billion in annual dividend payments owed to holders of its corporate credit products, he said.

“I don’t think we’re driving the price up or down,” Le told CNBC, adding that the company owns about 4% of the total BTC supply. 

Magazine: Big Questions: Can Bitcoin save you from the dreaded Cantillon Effect?

TLDR:

• • Bitcoin’s realized cap monthly growth has returned to +0.25%, ending a steep -2.6% decline recorded in February 2025.
    
  • The February correction triggered realized losses as investors who bought BTC at higher prices exited their positions.
    
  • The downturn reflected a weak-to-strong hands transfer, with patient buyers absorbing supply from loss-realizing sellers.
  • Analysts now watch whether rising profit-taking will slow recovery or if fresh demand will sustain the positive cap trend.

Bitcoin’s realized cap has moved back into positive monthly growth, posting a gain of +0.25% after a steep decline.

This shift follows a difficult correction period that pushed the metric to -2.6% in February. The realized cap tracks the difference between realized profits and realized losses in the market.

It is considered one of the clearest measures of capital movement. Analysts are now watching closely to see whether the trend can hold as market conditions improve.

Realized Cap Drop Reflected Investor Losses During Correction

The February decline in Bitcoin’s realized cap came as investors sold holdings at a loss. Many of those investors had purchased BTC at higher price levels earlier in the cycle. As selling pressure grew, the realized cap pulled back sharply, reflecting capital destruction in the market.

Crypto analyst Darkfost explained the pattern on X, noting that the realized cap measures “the difference between realized profits and realized losses.” During the downturn, this balance tilted heavily toward losses. That shift dragged the monthly growth rate deep into negative territory.

The correction phase also produced a shift in ownership. Investors unwilling to absorb further losses exited their positions and transferred holdings to buyers at lower prices.

This process is commonly referred to as a transfer from weak hands to strong hands. It is a pattern that has appeared in previous Bitcoin market cycles.

Even so, overall sentiment during the correction remained cautious. New capital did not immediately return to the market after prices fell. Buyers waited for valuations to reach levels they considered attractive before committing fresh funds to Bitcoin.

Positive Shift Suggests New Capital Is Returning to Bitcoin

Now that the realized cap has turned positive again, the market dynamic appears to be changing. According to Darkfost, “investor sentiment is improving as capital begins flowing back into the market.”

That change is reflected in the monthly growth figure moving above zero for the first time since the downturn.

The +0.25% reading is modest on its own. However, coming directly after a -2.6% monthly decline, it carries weight as a directional shift. Analysts tend to look at this kind of recovery as an early sign that buyers are returning with confidence.

Capital inflows at this stage often reflect improved sentiment among both retail and institutional participants. When new money enters the market, it tends to push realized profits higher. That, in turn, supports further growth in the realized cap over subsequent months.

The central question, as Darkfost noted, is whether this recovery can continue as more investors take profits. If selling pressure increases alongside rising prices, the growth rate could stall again. However, if demand absorbs that supply, the realized cap is likely to continue its upward trend.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has dropped more than 35% versus Bitcoin (BTC) over the last 12 months, a slide that market observers say could have further to run if technical and on-chain signals play out. The underperformance comes as Bitcoin continues to attract corporate interest and mainstream adoption, while Ethereum faces a mix of liquidity and momentum headwinds that have tempered its rally narratives.

Key takeaways:

• ETH/BTC remains trapped below a multi-year descending trend line that has capped breakouts since 2022, with a potential 40% downside target toward 0.0176 BTC if the weakness persists into 2026.
• Binance ETH reserves climbed to 3.62 million ETH as of May, about 24.6% of all Ether held on exchanges, signaling higher near-term selling risk, according to CryptoQuant data.
• Bitcoin reserves on Binance have fallen, highlighting divergent exchange liquidity trends between the two assets.
• The broader market narrative, including Ethereum’s lingering “ultrasound money” momentum and BTC’s growing institutional interest, continues to shape relative performance and risk sentiment.

ETH-BTC: technical setup points to extended weakness

ETH/BTC has remained entrenched beneath a long-standing descending trend line that has constrained every major breakout since 2022. The pattern mirrors a similar setup that preceded the steep drop from late 2024 into 2025, suggesting the same structural pressure could reassert itself if BTC and ETH fail to find fresh demand.

In August 2025, ETH/BTC briefly retested the trend line, only to be repelled at a convergence zone that included the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the 50-month exponential moving average. Since then, the pair slid back below the 20-month moving average, which now acts as a resistance-turned-signal of selling pressure around the 0.034 BTC level.

The chart implies a potential objective around 0.0176 BTC if selling continues, a level that would represent roughly a 40% decline from recent prices and aligns with the 2020 cycle bottom. Traders watching the eth/btc ladder see this as a crucial test of whether Ether can regain tempo or if Bitcoin’s uptrend remains the dominant driver of market risk appetite.

On-chain and exchange signals paint a mixed liquidity picture

On-chain data from CryptoQuant highlights a notable divergence in exchange balances between ETH and BTC. Ether reserves on Binance—the world’s largest crypto exchange by volume—have risen to 3.62 million ETH as of May, accounting for about 24.6% of all Ether held on crypto exchanges. This increase in available ETH suggests more supply could be poised for sale if buyers do not absorb it in the current market environment.

In contrast, Bitcoin reserves on Binance have fallen, signaling tighter exchange-side liquidity for BTC. The opposite dynamics—rising ETH supply versus diminishing BTC supply on exchanges—help explain, at least in part, the ongoing divergences in price action between the two assets.

Higher exchange balances for ETH often translate into greater near-term selling pressure, especially when demand lacks the vigor to match supply. By contrast, shrinking BTC reserves can reflect a combination of hodling behavior and a rotation of liquidity away from centralized venues, which can give BTC a relative edge when risk sentiment shifts.

These reserve patterns add a practical dimension to the broader narrative: Ether appears more exposed to potential supply-driven downside on exchange rails, while Bitcoin benefits from tighter liquidity and, in some cases, a stronger bid from institutional participants stepping into the market.

Narrative tensions and market context: where the momentum sits

Beyond the charts and on-chain metrics, the fundamental backdrop for Ether remains a topic of debate. For years, Ether’s “ultrasound money” narrative — the idea of a deflationary or steadily scarce asset embedded in Ethereum’s monetary dynamics — helped frame ETH as a better long-term store of value relative to fiat or even BTC in some cycles. However, that narrative has cooled in recent periods, contributing to a prolonged period of lag versus Bitcoin on a relative performance basis.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, has benefited from growing corporate engagement and wider adoption into traditional portfolios. Market observers have pointed to evidence of corporate accumulation and strategic participation by institutions as a tailwind for BTC’s price resilience. Notably, retail and institutional access to spot BTC trading, including upcoming offerings and integration into mainstream platforms, continues to shape the adoption trajectory for BTC more than ETH in several market segments.

Recent coverage underscores this asymmetry: corporate players have shown sustained interest in BTC, while Ethereum’s growth narrative has faced headwinds that temper a broad-based upside versus BTC. In parallel, developments such as retail access expansions for spot BTC and ETH trading — including moves from traditional financial firms into crypto markets — remain in focus for readers watching how the market prices risk, liquidity, and opportunity across the digital asset spectrum.

Related commentary has explored how these dynamic shifts could influence capex decisions for developers, liquidity provisioning for exchanges, and the pace of adoption on Layer 2s and decentralized finance ecosystems. As the market absorbs these cross-currents, traders may look for catalysts that could tilt the balance—ranging from further macro normalization to concrete progress on Ethereum’s scaling roadmap and the evolution of centralized exchange liquidity pools.

On balance, the ETH-BTC relationship continues to hinge on a mix of technical barriers, on-chain liquidity signals, and the evolving narrative around what each asset represents to investors and users in different market regimes. While BTC’s path remains susceptible to institutional demand and liquidity dynamics, Ether’s fate will likely be decided by how supply pressure on exchanges interacts with network upgrades, layer-2 maturation, and the broader pace of Ethereum’s ecosystem development.

Readers should watch whether ETH can push through the established trend line, or if the combination of rising ETH supply on major exchanges and continued resistance around key moving averages keeps the pair under pressure. The next price pivot around 0.0176 BTC would not only mark a technical breakpoint but also signal whether Ether can reassert a case for value relative to BTC in the face of shifting liquidity and narrative forces.

The data underpinning these observations draw from CryptoQuant’s exchange-flow analytics, with ETH reserve figures specifically cited for Binance as of May. For anyone tracking the liquidity landscape, these metrics provide a practical lens into where risk might be concentrated in the near term and how institutional and retail behavior could shape the next leg of the crypto cycle.

What unfolds next could hinge on how much buy-side demand returns to ETH in the face of a higher supply ceiling on exchanges and whether BTC’s liquidity backdrop remains supportive as institutional participation continues to expand. Keep an eye on reserve trends, price action around the critical trend line, and any regulatory or product developments that could tilt market sentiment in the coming weeks and months.

White House adviser Patrick Witt said it’s possible the Clarity Act becomes law by July 4 while Senator Kirsten Gillibrand pushed for an ethics provision in the market structure bill. Consensus Miami 2026 wrapped up with a fiery debate on the role of prediction markets, and a lot otherwise happened at our first conference in the Sunshine State.

CoinDesk also released the results of a survey it commissioned of 1,000 registered voters on their views toward crypto heading into the 2026 election.

PS: I’ll be at the Bermuda Digital Finance Forum next week. Let’s catch up if you’re there.

You’re reading State of Crypto, a CoinDesk newsletter looking at the intersection of cryptocurrency and government. Click here to sign up for future editions.

The narrative

White House Executive Director of the President’s Council on Digital Assets Patrick Witt told the audience at Consensus Miami this week that he believed it was possible to have President Donald Trump sign the Clarity Act into law by July 4. The timeline would require a markup this month (which seems very possible), four weeks for the Senate to merge the Banking and Agriculture bills (technically possible), a few weeks for reconciliation with the House (also technically possible) and the House vote (will depend on the House) and finally, the part where the president signs the bill.

Beyond Witt, we heard from various industry participants and policymakers at Consensus Miami. Catch up below.

Why it matters

Look, if you’ve read this newsletter for more than a few weeks, you know the Clarity Act has taken center stage for the last several months. Maybe it’ll happen and we can move on to other things. Maybe not. But there does seem to be more momentum now than there has been in weeks, and so we’ll see — I imagine quite soon — what that means.

Breaking it down

Consensus this year had a number of other sessions with lawmakers, policymakers and lawyers weighing in on everything from what the Clarity Act needs (ethics provisions, per Senator Kirsten Gillibrand) to whether or not prediction markets are gambling (we did not reach a conclusion but it was an excellent debate!).

Some highlights:

CoinDesk also released the results of a survey of registered voters it commissioned from April 21-27. We found that while voters generally don’t care about crypto leading into the 2026 midterm election when facing other issues like the economy and healthcare. This likely isn’t a surprise to anyone.

Voters did overwhelmingly say that they did not want senior government officials to have ties to crypto business interests, a majority said they did not feel comfortable with President Donald Trump’s administration overseeing crypto (though just 17% of voters said they knew he and his family had co-founded World Liberty Financial). Voters also overwhelmingly favored banks to crypto projects when asked which was more likely to bring them financial services.

You can read our articles on this data below:

Crypto is at bottom of U.S. voters’ priorities heading into elections, CoinDesk survey shows

U.S. voters don’t trust Trump administration to oversee crypto sector, CoinDesk poll finds

Americans still prefer banks over crypto for financial access, CoinDesk’s survey shows

Thursday

• 14:30 UTC (10:30 a.m. ET) The Senate Banking Committee plans to hold a markup hearing to advance the Clarity Act.

If you’ve got thoughts or questions on what I should discuss next week or any other feedback you’d like to share, feel free to email me at nik@coindesk.com or find me on Bluesky @nikhileshde.bsky.social.

You can also join the group conversation on Telegram.

See ya’ll next week!

TLDR:

• Larry Fink identified power, compute, and chips as critical U.S. shortfalls, putting 15 altcoins in focus.
  
• Five compute tokens including $TAO and $RENDER offer decentralized GPU access below traditional cloud pricing.
  
• Power tokens like $EWT and $POWR enable peer-to-peer renewable energy trading without central intermediaries.
  
• Chip-focused tokens such as $HNT, $IOTX, and $CHIP build hardware and lending layers for AI infrastructure. 

Altcoins tied to U.S. shortages in power, compute, and chips are gaining fresh attention across digital asset markets. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink recently named these three sectors as critical bottlenecks for the American economy.

The crypto community has identified 15 blockchain projects that directly target each of these gaps. With BlackRock managing more than $11 trillion in assets, Fink’s remarks carry weight among institutional investors tracking decentralized alternatives. Their growing interest has put these altcoins under fresh scrutiny.

Compute Tokens Offer Decentralized GPU Access for Growing AI Demand

The compute group holds five altcoins, each addressing a distinct gap in AI infrastructure. $TAO operates as a decentralized AI marketplace with 128 specialized subnets running varied machine learning tasks. $RENDER provides a GPU network built for 3D rendering and AI inference at commercial scale.

$IO pools idle GPUs across the Solana blockchain into a single, unified cloud platform for developers. $AKT offers H100 chip access at rates well below standard AWS pricing. $NOS is a Solana-based GPU grid designed specifically for independent AI developers and small teams.

A post from @ourcryptotalk stated these tokens are building for exactly the demand Fink publicly described. Each project targets a separate layer in the compute stack, reducing direct competition among them. $TAO focuses on model training incentives, while $RENDER handles inference and creative rendering workloads.

Traditional data centers are approaching capacity limits as global AI adoption continues to accelerate. Decentralized compute networks offer a practical option for developers needing affordable GPU access at scale. The connection between Fink’s stated concern and these token use cases has raised their visibility across markets.

Power and Chip Tokens Address Energy and Hardware Shortfalls

The power sector includes five altcoins focused on renewable energy distribution and peer-to-peer energy trading.

$POWR enables direct solar and renewable energy trading between participants without any central intermediary. $EWT is a grid-scale energy blockchain already in active deployment by Shell and EDF.

$GLOW rewards verified solar farms in tokens based on measurable clean energy output. $DAY links home batteries and solar panels to wholesale energy markets through a token-based bidding system. $SNC provides a marketplace where neighbors can trade surplus rooftop solar energy directly.

The @ourcryptotalk post framed these power tokens as direct responses to the bottleneck Fink identified. On the chip side, $HNT leads as the largest wireless DePIN network and now integrates 5G on Solana. $ATH runs an enterprise GPU cloud serving game studios and AI labs on a commercial basis.

$IOTX proves real-world chip data on-chain through Internet of Things hardware connectivity. $HONEY builds a dashcam hardware network mapping global roads with data stored directly on-chain.

$CHIP offers GPU-collateralized lending to finance AI infrastructure, acting as a financial layer within the chip sector. The crypto community is now asking which of these 15 altcoins has the capacity to absorb institutional capital flows.