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BTC’s jump to $69,000 likely the result of short-covering

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BTC's jump to $69,000 likely the result of short-covering

After dipping over the weekend as the U.S. began strikes against Iran, bitcoin shot higher on Monday, at one point nearing $70,000 before pulling back to the current $69,000.

While any rally in bitcoin is welcome by the bulls, today’s move comes after a relentless months-long slide that has halved the price and weighed on sentiment. One analyst suggests Monday’s quick gains carry the hallmarks of a positioning squeeze, with traders who had bet on further downside forced to unwind those trades as prices rose.

“This is clearly a flushing of shorts due to the confluence of the Iranian attacks causing a rebalancing across the whole capital stack with bitcoin having a tailwind from a reversal of spot bitcoin ETF outflows,” said Mark Connors, chief investment officer at Risk Dimensions. In other words, macro shocks triggered repositioning across markets, and bitcoin benefited as some investors rotated back into risk, and recent spot bitcoin ETF outflows slowed or reversed.

A short flush can create sharp, fast rallies. When traders who borrowed to bet on falling prices rush to close their positions, they must buy back the asset, adding fuel to the move. That dynamic can push prices higher than fundamentals alone would justify, at least in the short term.

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“This is not a signal of the march back to $100,000 and through the very important 75,000 resistance,” said a cautious Connors In his view, the rally does not yet mark a decisive break from the broader downtrend. Key resistance levels remain overhead, and without sustained spot demand, the bounce could stall as quickly as it began.

Market positioning data underscores his caution and shows how tightly wound the derivatives market has become.

Data from CoinGlass’ liquidation heat map shows a $218 million cluster of positions that will be liquidated if price tumbles to between $65,250 and $64,650, which was the base from which Mondays’ rally began.

This, coupled with open interest rising by 6% over the past 24 hours while price increased by 3.8%, suggests the move is backed by leverage rather than spot buying, leading a number of traders to take profits at the psychological $70,000 level of resistance.

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On the other hand, a break above $70,000 would trigger around $90 million worth of short liquidations — likely enough fuel to challenge February’s high of $72,000.

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Crypto World

Polymarket Looks to Raise $400M at $15B valuation: Report

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Polymarket Looks to Raise $400M at $15B valuation: Report

Prediction market platform Polymarket is reportedly in talks with investors to raise another $400 million in fresh capital, The Information reported Monday.

The $400 million raise would be made at a $15 billion valuation, The Information said, citing two people familiar with the matter. 

The raise would add to a wave of institutional capital flowing into the predictions market space in recent months. New York Stock Exchange parent Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) invested $600 million into Polymarket in late March, while competitor platform Kalshi’s valuation was marked at about $22 billion in its last funding round.

The Information said Polymarket is looking to add strategic investors beyond ICE in its next funding round, which could total $1 billion.

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Prediction markets started booming around the time of the 2024 US election and are now consistently recording over $10 billion in monthly trading volume across markets covering everything from sports and political elections to financial results and cultural events.

Monthly trading volume for Kalshi and Polymarket since May 2025. Source: Token Terminal

With that rise has come surging institutional interest from some of Wall Street’s biggest players.

In early March, one of Nasdaq’s options exchanges, Nasdaq MRX, filed to offer cash-settled, binary-style contracts on the Nasdaq-100 index.

Cboe Global Markets is also launching a prediction market-style offering, while CME Group partnered with American gambling company FanDuel, which will enable traders to bet on markets outside of finance. 

Related: Kalshi to create ‘portal for parents‘ on prediction markets: Report

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Last week, TradFi firms Charles Schwab and Citadel Securities said they are also weighing a move into prediction markets.

Legal issues linger over prediction markets

Despite the rise in prediction market activity, Kalshi and others have faced regulatory scrutiny over widespread insider trading and market manipulation allegations.

Kalshi is currently engaged in a court battle with the Nevada Gaming Control Board after a lower court temporarily blocked Kalshi from operating in the state. 

The state regulator argues that Kalshi’s contracts facilitate unlicensed gambling. Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal has predicted that the case could reach the US Supreme Court, potentially creating precedent over the regulatory treatment of prediction markets and event-based derivatives.

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Magazine: Should users be allowed to bet on war and death in prediction markets?