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BTC’s rally runs into ‘sell the news’ risk ahead of FOMC meeting

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BTC Change After Each Fed Meeting (Two Prime)

Bitcoin heads into the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting with strong momentum, trading above $74,000 after eight consecutive daily gains. However, data compiled by bitcoin lender Two Prime suggests this strength may mask a recurring pattern, FOMC meetings have historically acted as short term bearish catalysts for BTC.

Looking at 2025, bitcoin posted negative returns in the 48 hours following seven of eight FOMC meetings. Even in May, when BTC rallied sharply, the broader trend points to consistent post meeting weakness regardless of whether the Fed held rates or shifted policy direction. This reinforces the idea that the event itself, rather than the outcome, drives volatility.

BTC Change After Each Fed Meeting (Two Prime)
BTC Change After Each Fed Meeting (Two Prime)

The upcoming decision is unlikely to deliver surprises. Markets are pricing a near certainty, around 99%, that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in the 350 to 375 basis point range. Meanwhile, the futures market is only pricing in a single 25 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, reinforcing a higher for longer backdrop. Even with a new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, expected to take over in June.

Macro risks further complicate the picture. Escalating conflict in the Middle East and oil prices hovering around $100 a barrel are likely to put upward pressure on CPI inflation numbers, limiting the Fed’s flexibility to ease policy on top of a weakening jobs market.

With bitcoin entering the meeting in a buoyant state, the risk shifts toward a classic sell the news reaction.

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Crypto World

Tally to Wind Down DAO Platform, Scraps Planned ICO

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Tally to Wind Down DAO Platform, Scraps Planned ICO

Decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) governance platform Tally is shutting down after five years of operations, citing a lack of sustainable business models for governance tooling in the crypto market. 

Tally co-founder and CEO Dennison Bertram said the company will begin winding down at the end of March. He added that the company is not moving forward with a planned initial coin offering (ICO), concluding that it could not confidently deliver on the expectations that would come with selling tokens to investors. 

Tally’s closure comes despite years of activity on its platform, which supported governance for hundreds of organizations and processed more than $1 billion in payments, according to Bertram. At its peak, the company said it helped secure up to $80 billion in value and served more than 1 million users.

Tally launched in 2021 as a software platform for on-chain organizations. According to startup intelligence platform Tracxn, the company raised a total of $15.5 million across three funding rounds. 

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Related: Vitalik Buterin proposes using AI to strengthen DAO governance

The shutdown reflects the challenges facing DAO-focused platforms after years of development and adoption. It highlights the pace of change in the industry, where even substantial achievements may prove insufficient to support a venture-backed business in DAO governance tooling.

Source: Tally

Industry reflects on DAO challenges amid Tally shutdown

Following the announcement, builders and operators across the ecosystem pointed to a broader reassessment of DAO governance, with some describing Tally’s closure as part of a wider shift in how coordination tools are being developed and monetized. 

Oku Trade CEO Getty Hill said DAO development has not met the expectations set during earlier growth phases.

Related: DAOs may need to ditch decentralization to court institutions

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“While stablecoins have achieved the greatest product-market fit in crypto, I still believe DAOs will ultimately get there, though maybe not for another 3-10 years,” he wrote. 

Meanwhile, Oasis Onchain founder Stefen Deleveaux described the shutdown as “the end of an era,” reflecting on a wave of early DAO tooling projects that emerged during the 2020–2021 cycle but struggled to sustain themselves over time.

Realms DAO chief technology officer Adrian Brzeziński pointed to the stats highlighted by Bertram, saying that the “hardest truth” in crypto infrastructure is that usage does not equate to revenue. “The next wave of governance won’t look like voting portals. It’ll look like capital coordination,” Brzeziński wrote. 

DAOs are “difficult” to operate

On March 11, Aave founder Stani Kulechov said DAOs, in their current form, are “extraordinarily difficult” to operate. He pointed to internal conflicts and proposals that can take weeks of forum posts, temperature checks and multiple votes to pass. 

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