Connect with us
DAPA Banner

Crypto World

Bullish bets on Bitfinex surge

Published

on

Comparing BTC's spot price trends with longs on Bitfinex. (TradingView)

Yes, you read the title right. The number of bullish bitcoin wagers, the so-called BTC/USD long positions, on the OG exchange Bitfinex has hit multi-month highs.

But, bulls, hold your cheers, as this metric has become a textbook “contrary indicator” over the years, with upswings characterizing bitcoin’s price downtrends.

Highest since 2023

The number of BTC/USD longs has increased to 79,343, the highest since November 2023, according to data source CoinDesk.

Rising bullish bets usually signal growing upside pressure – a positive read. But historically, the market has done the exact opposite, falling just as Mother Nature turns sunny forecasts into storms.

Advertisement

For instance, the number of BTC/USD longs rose 30% in the final quarter of 2025 as BTC’s spot price tanked 23% to $87,550. Similar patterns have been observed in recent years, as seen below.

Comparing BTC's spot price trends with longs on Bitfinex. (TradingView)
The chart shows inverse relationship between the spot price and number of longs on Bitfinex. (TradingView)

BTC’s price bottoms when Bitfinex longs peak – and rallies as they decline. Price tops (like October) hit when longs bottom out, then prices slide as longs climb.

Analysts have previously explained this conundrum by saying the crowd is usually clueless, so bet against them.

So, the latest uptick in longs suggests that bitcoin’s choppy price action between $65,000 and $75,000 could soon end with a sell-off, deepening the downtrend that began above $100,000 last year. It goes without saying that past results are no guarantee of future results.

That said, other factors, such as reports that the U.S. is planning to deploy troops to the ongoing war in Iran, the oil price shock, and fears of a Fed rate hike, also favour the bearish case.

Advertisement

At press time, bitcoin traded around $66,400, according to CoinDesk data.

Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Crypto World

Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

Published

on

Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

Total value locked on decentralized lending protocol Aave dropped by nearly $8 billion over the weekend after hackers behind the $293 million Kelp DAO exploit borrowed funds on Aave, leaving roughly $195 million in “bad debt” on the protocol and triggering withdrawals.

Data from DeFiLlama shows that Aave’s TVL fell from about $26.4 billion to $18.6 billion by Sunday, losing the top spot as the largest DeFi protocol. 

Aave v3’s lending pools for USDt (USDT) and USDC (USDC) are now at 100% utilization, meaning that more than $5.1 billion worth of stablecoins cannot be withdrawn until new liquidity arrives or borrows are repaid. 

$2,540 is available to be withdrawn from the $2.87 billion USDT pool on Aave v3 at the time of writing. Source: Aave

Aave’s TVL fall shows how rapidly risk from a single security incident can spread throughout the broader, interconnected DeFi lending market, potentially leading to a severe liquidity crisis.

The incident began on Saturday when hackers stole 116,500 Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (rsETH) tokens worth about $293 million from Kelp DAO’s LayerZero-powered bridge and used them as collateral on Aave v3 to borrow wrapped Ether (wETH).

Advertisement

Crypto analytics platform Lookonchain said the move created about $195 million in “bad debt” on Aave, which contributed to the Aave (AAVE) token tanking nearly 20% from $112 on Saturday at 6:00 pm UTC to $89.5 about 25 hours later. 

Lookonchain noted that some of the largest crypto whales to withdraw funds from Aave were the MEXC crypto exchange and Abraxas Capital at $431 million and $392 million, respectively.

Source: Grvt

Several crypto networks and protocols tied to rsETH or the LayerZero bridge have paused use of the bridge until the problem is resolved, including DeFi platform Curve Finance, stablecoin issuer Ethena and BitGo’s Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC).

Aave has frozen several rsETH, wETH markets

Shortly after the Kelp DAO exploit, Aave said it froze the rsETH markets on both Aave v3 and v4 to prevent any suspicious borrowing and later stated that rsETH on Ethereum mainnet remains fully backed by underlying assets.

WETH reserves also remain frozen on Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, Mantle and Linea, Aave said.

Advertisement

This incident marks the first significant stress test of Aave’s “Umbrella” security model, which was introduced in June 2025 to provide automated protection against protocol bad debt while enabling users to earn rewards.

Related: Aave DAO backs V4 mainnet plan in near-unanimous vote

Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada found that Aave avoided bad debt in its v3 market by using overcollateralization, automated liquidations and other strategies that shifted risk to borrowers.

In comments to Cointelegraph, Aave defended its liquidation-based model, framing it as a core safety mechanism that protects lenders while limiting downside for borrowers.

Advertisement

It comes as Aave parted ways with its longest-standing DeFi risk service provider, Chaos Labs, on April 6, following disagreements over the direction of Aave v4 and budget constraints.

Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?