Crypto World
Can PMI above 50 trigger Altcoin Season in 2026?
As macro conditions regain influence over digital assets, investors are increasingly asking whether a rebound in economic activity, particularly a Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reading above 50, could ignite the next altcoin season.
Summary
- PMI above 50 would signal improving economic conditions and a potential return of risk appetite
- Nearly 40% of altcoins trading near all-time lows reflects extreme weakness but possible late-stage capitulation
- Bitcoin dominance remains elevated, suggesting rotation into altcoins has not yet begun
What PMI means for Altcoin Season
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a forward-looking economic indicator that measures manufacturing and services activity. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction.
Crypto markets, especially altcoins, are highly sensitive to liquidity and risk appetite. When PMI rises above 50 after a contraction phase, it typically signals improving growth expectations, stronger corporate activity, and loosening financial conditions.
Historically, periods of macro expansion have coincided with greater investor willingness to rotate into higher-beta assets, including mid- and small-cap cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin often reacts first to improving macro conditions, benefiting from institutional flows. Altcoin season tends to follow when investors move further out the risk curve in search of higher returns. In prior cycles, altcoin rallies have emerged during early-to-mid expansion phases when liquidity conditions improved but speculative excess had not yet peaked.
Current conditions: Pressure before rotation?
However, the present backdrop remains fragile.
According to a CryptoQuant analyst, 38% of altcoins are trading near their all-time lows, a worse reading than both April 2025 (35%) and even the immediate aftermath of the FTX collapse (37.8%). This marks the deepest regression for altcoins in the current cycle, underscoring persistent risk aversion.
Moreover, the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart reinforces this narrative. Dominance remains elevated near 58–59%, after peaking around 60% in February.
While BTC.D has pulled back slightly from local highs, it has not broken into a decisive downtrend, a necessary condition for sustained altcoin outperformance.
For a PMI-driven altcoin season to materialize, three things likely need to occur simultaneously: PMI moving sustainably above 50, Bitcoin consolidating rather than trending sharply higher, and BTC dominance breaking below key support to confirm capital rotation.
Until then, macro stabilization may first benefit Bitcoin before liquidity meaningfully spreads into the broader altcoin market.
In short, a PMI recovery could be the spark, but dominance trends suggest altcoin season has not yet begun.
Strategic Waterway at Risk
The Strait of Hormuz is also one of the most important routes of oil transit in the world, and its interruption has already attracted international attention. The US stance has been supported by several nations such as the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, which have put pressure on Iran to allow normal shipping activities. Furthermore, the Gulf countries have also highlighted the necessity to maintain the energy routes steadily to avoid the broader economic impact in case the US attacks. Iran has replied that any assault by the US will be met with attacks on the infrastructure in the region that benefits the US. Energy plants, technology systems, and desalination plants may serve as targets in the case of further escalation, according to the officials. This was also in response to an alleged missile attack associated with Iran on the Haifa refinery in Israel that fueled more tension in the region.
Oil markets responded swiftly to the events, with oil prices rising to approximately 98 dollars per barrel, indicating the increasing supply fears. The traders considered the possibility of extended unrest in the Gulf region, which would constrict global supplies. In addition, analysts observed that strategic reserves might fail to counter lasting supply shocks in the event that the conflict spreads to international markets. The cryptocurrency market revealed a new vulnerability as geopolitical risks rose amidst global markets. Major digital assets suffered losses with investors moving to less risky assets due to uncertainty. The larger risk-off mood thus persisted to press crypto prices even though they have tried to recover in the recent past.
The situation in the financial markets is delicate to any additional update, with each group taking a strong stand. On another indicator, investors are keeping a close eye on any diplomatic happenings that will reduce tensions or avert escalation. Nevertheless, with additional uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, volatility can be expected to continue in the near term in both oil and digital asset markets.
Robinhood’s (HOOD) board has approved a new $1.5 billion share repurchase program, according to an 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
It adds more than $1.1 billion to existing buyback capacity.
The company said it expects to carry out the plan over about three years starting in the first quarter of 2026, though it is not required to buy a fixed amount.
Alongside the buyback, Robinhood also strengthened its access to funding. Its subsidiary, Robinhood Securities, entered into an updated credit agreement with lenders led by JPMorgan. The deal expands a revolving credit facility to $3.25 billion, up from $2.65 billion, with the option to increase total commitments to $4.875 billion.
One of last year’s hottest stocks, in large part thanks to the boom in crypto-related trading, HOOD has lost more than 50% of its value since bitcoin topped in early October. Shares are up 1.4% in after hours trading.
Bitcoin (BTC) holders are gradually becoming less prone to panic selling and instead building up cash buffers to deploy during discounted BTC buying opportunities. Onchain data supports this view, highlighting a large surge in stablecoin activity, with USD Coin (USDC) and Tether’s USDt (USDT) transfers reaching a combined $440 billion on March 22.
This shift in investor behavior aligns with the increasing risk-off approach seen in markets as the United States Federal Reserve dismissed near-term interest rate cut expectations, amid rising energy prices due to the ongoing US and Israel-Iran war.
Bitcoin realized volatility expands, but investors are cool headed
Bitcoin’s recent price action highlights a volatile market. It dropped 3.75% to $67,300 on Sunday before rebounding above $71,700 on Monday, with the move largely driven by news around the US and Israel-Iran war.
As a result, BTC’s realized volatility, which measures how much the price has actually moved over a given period, remains elevated across multiple time frames. The three-month and six-month realized volatility measures have climbed to 107% and 148%, respectively, up from 60% and 94.5% over the past six months.
However, the long-term one-year realized volatility has remained unchanged near 180% during this period. That suggests the market isn’t in full panic mode, and it is dealing with uncertainty without widespread forced selling.
Stablecoin flows provide important context for this environment. On March 22, the total number of USDC tokens transferred surged to 368 billion, marking a roughly 2,081% daily increase to an all-time high, while USDT transfers on the Ethereum network reached 72 billion.
These stablecoin flows point to a rapid capital rotation and repositioning. The market participants are actively moving funds into stablecoins as a temporary store of value, creating a “cash buffer” that can be redeployed quickly.
This dynamic often emerges in volatile conditions, where traders may prioritize monitoring the price over high exposure.
Related: What happens to Bitcoin if US bond yields soar above 5%?
Spot and futures activity remain below bull market highs
Futures data further reinforces the current sidelined sentiment. BTC open interest (in USD) is down $19 billion over the past six months, indicating a steady reduction in leveraged exposure. This unwind reflects a market that is de-risking rather than building aggressive positions.
Aggregated funding rates have cooled to 0.01% from overheated levels near 0.1% in July-August 2025, occasionally flipping negative, while the perpetual futures premium continues to trade at a discount to spot.
Together, these signals point to subdued leverage demand and a market lacking strong directional conviction, with a slight bearish tilt.
The spot market activity paints a similar picture. Cointelegraph reported that Binance is on track to record its lowest monthly spot volume since September 2023, with volumes hovering near $52 billion.
The current participation levels align more closely with periods of reduced engagement seen during prior bear market cycles in 2022-2023.
Thus, the crypto market has strong liquidity, with capital actively moving through stablecoins, but it isn’t being deployed into Bitcoin yet, and BTC holders continue to observe the current market.
Related: Bitcoin value ‘off the chart’ as BTC price metric hits record lows in 2026
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Balancer Labs is shutting down operations. The corporate entity behind the DeFi protocol is winding down after a $128 million exploit on November 3, 2025, made the company a “liability” due to mounting legal exposure.
Co-founder Fernando Martinelli confirmed the decision Monday, stating that the protocol itself will continue under a decentralized structure. The immediate market reaction has been brutal, with liquidity providers exiting V2 pools as confidence in the centralized entity evaporates.
- Exploit Impact: A rounding error in swap logic drained $128 million from V2 pools across multiple chains.
- Restructuring Plan: Balancer Labs dissolves; core team migrates to a new OpCo subject to DAO approval.
- Protocol Viability: Despite the shutdown, the protocol generates over $1 million in annualized fees.
Balancer Labs $128M Exploit: How Attackers Broke the Vault
The November 3 attack was surgical.
Attackers exploited a rounding flaw in Balancer’s swap logic across V2 pools on 6 different blockchains. Within 30 minutes, $128 million in user funds was gone. The vector was a pricing error in stable pools manipulated to drain liquidity. Not a flash loan. A fundamental flaw in the vault’s math.
Balancer founder Fernando Martinelli did not sugarcoat the post-mortem. “What failed was not the technology,” he wrote. “What failed was the economic model wrapped around it.” The accumulated weight of security incidents has turned the corporate entity from a development shield into a litigation target.
The market signal is bearish. BAL is facing renewed sell pressure as holders digest the dissolution of the primary development entity. TVL has contracted sharply since November with capital rotating into Curve and Uniswap.
Two scenarios from here.
If the DAO cannot execute a swift tokenomics overhaul, $1 million in annualized fees will not sustain development. The protocol becomes a zombie chain. If the proposed elimination of BAL emissions and a buyback program lands correctly, the shutdown gets repriced as a bottom signal and the token resets.
DEX volume across aligned ecosystems is plunging. Liquidity is fragmenting. If Balancer cannot stabilize its TVL, capital flight accelerates into more defensive stablecoin pools elsewhere.
Sellers control the tape until the restructuring is finalized.
Contagion Risk: Who Is Exposed to the Collapse?
Shutting down Balancer Labs removes the legal target. It does not fix the credit risk.
Protocols building on Balancer’s programmable liquidity are now interacting with a headless entity run purely by governance. For institutional LPs, losing a corporate counterparty increases perceived risk. Martinelli confirmed it himself. The lab had become a liability operating without revenue. The old DeFi development model is dead.
The pivot is radical. Balancer Labs dissolves. Core team members transition to a new entity called Balancer OpCo, pending a governance vote. BAL emissions get zeroed out. The veBAL governance model, which had been dominated by bribe markets, gets scrapped entirely.
Martinelli’s argument is straightforward. The technology still works. The protocol is revenue-positive. The shutdown unbundles the code from the legal baggage of the exploit and hands control to the DAO.
The technology survived. The company did not.
Balancer is now a live test case for whether a major DeFi protocol can outlive its own corporate death and function purely as code. If the governance vote fails to establish the OpCo, the protocol does not fade gracefully. It drifts into irrelevance with no one left to steer it.
The vote is the only thing that matters right now.
Discover: The best new crypto in the world
The post Balancer Labs to Shut Down After $128M Exploit, Plans Lean Restructuring appeared first on Cryptonews.
A down day in crypto became slightly less so in the minutes since U.S. stocks closed for the session.
According to Israeli Channel 12, a one-month ceasefire could soon be announced as part of a package being negotiated by White House envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Other terms of the deal reportedly include a dismantling of Iran’s existing nuclear capabilities and that country’s vow to “never seek” nuclear weapons.
The news was felt most immediately in the oil market, with Brent Crude dropping from $104 to below $100 in a few minutes.
Trading down throughout the day and sitting near $69,000, bitcoin quickly popped back to $70,000. U.S. stock index futures also posted small gains on the news.
TLDR
- Microsoft shares fell about 2.5% and traded near $373 during Tuesday’s session.
- Major U.S. indices moved lower as renewed geopolitical tensions pressured technology stocks.
- Reports said Iran started charging transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz, raising trade concerns.
- The Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, beating expectations of 51.5 and signaling expansion.
- Despite strong economic data, broader market weakness kept MSFT stock under pressure.
MSFT stock declined on Tuesday as broader markets retreated and geopolitical risks resurfaced. The stock fell about 2.5% to nearly $373 during the session. Traders reacted to renewed tension in the Middle East and weakness across major technology names.
MSFT Stock Drops as Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Tech
MSFT stock moved lower as major U.S. indices reversed earlier gains. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each closed in negative territory. Reports tied the selloff to rising tensions linked to Iran. News from the Strait of Hormuz added pressure on global trade routes.
Authorities reported that Iran began charging transit fees for vessels in the region. That development raised concerns about shipping costs and energy prices. Consequently, large-cap technology stocks faced renewed selling pressure. Companies within the “Magnificent Seven” group traded lower during the session.
Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon have already posted declines between 12% and 13% this year. Those losses have trailed the broader S&P 500 index performance. Market participants often move these stocks together during uncertain periods. As risk appetite weakens, traders reduce exposure to high-growth sectors.
Microsoft traded in line with its mega-cap peers during the pullback. The company did not release new corporate updates on Tuesday. However, broader macro headlines influenced price action. As a result, the stock reflected general market direction rather than company-specific developments.
Strong PMI Data Fails to Lift MSFT Stock
The latest Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index showed continued expansion. The PMI reading came in at 52.4 for the month. Economists had expected a reading of 51.5. The previous figure stood at 51.6.
A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity. The latest data suggested stable demand and steady production levels. Despite the stronger reading, equities did not rally. Instead, geopolitical headlines dominated trading decisions.
Market analysts pointed to a shifting focus during the session. “Geopolitical risks are driving short-term sentiment,” one market strategist said. Economic data often supports long-term growth projections. However, traders prioritized global developments during Tuesday’s session.
Microsoft continues to expand its Azure cloud platform. The company also integrates automation tools across enterprise products. These initiatives support revenue growth targets. Still, Tuesday’s price movement reflected broader market conditions.
MSFT stock closed near $373 after the 2.5% decline. Trading volume remained consistent with recent sessions. The PMI report remains the latest major economic release influencing markets.
Chair Michael Selig said that the task force was an example of “future-proofing“ regulation at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is looking to embrace innovation in its regulatory approach to crypto and blockchain with the launch of a new Innovation Task Force, according to a Tuesday notice.
Chair Michael Selig said that the task force will work with the regulator’s Innovation Advisory Committee to create a framework focused on crypto, blockchain, AI, and prediction markets. The effort will be led by Michael Passalacqua, who joined the CFTC as a senior adviser in January after working on crypto and blockchain issues at international law firm Simpson Thacher & Bartlett.
“The idea behind our innovation advisory task force is really to create a space where innovators and builders can come in and talk to the staff,” Selig told attendees at the Digital Asset Summit in New York City on Tuesday. “It’s not just crypto — it’s going to be prediction markets, crypto, and AI. We think these three verticals are really important.”
The move comes more than a year after the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched its own task force focused on crypto regulation, just one day after US President Donald Trump took office, and SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda took the reins as acting chair from former Commissioner Gary Gensler. The SEC task force, headed by Commissioner Hester Peirce, included Selig as chief counsel at the time before he was nominated by Trump to chair the CFTC.
Related: SEC task force met with Trump-supporting firms to discuss crypto regulation
Regulators work on crypto rules as market structure legislation remains stuck
The CFTC’s announcement comes on the heels of an SEC interpretative notice last week that proposed that the agency would not consider most crypto asset securities under federal law. SEC Chair Paul Atkins called the measure a “bridge” to clarify crypto regulation in the absence of Congressional action on a comprehensive digital asset framework.
The market structure bill, called the CLARITY Act when it passed the House of Representatives in July 2025, has effectively been stalled in the Senate amid debates over stablecoin yield, ethics, tokenized equities, and other issues. While some proponents of the legislation have said policymakers were closer to reaching an agreement, it was unclear as of Tuesday if or when it would reach the Senate for a full floor vote.
Magazine: Banks want to run Vietnam’s crypto exchanges, Boyaa’s $70M BTC plan: Asia Express
Circle is partnering with Sasai Fintech to expand the use of its USDC stablecoin across African payment corridors, targeting remittances, business transactions and mobile wallet services.
According to Tuesday’s announcement, collaboration will integrate the second-biggest stablecoin into Sasai’s existing payments infrastructure, which supports cross-border transfers, enterprise payments and consumer wallets, with the aim of reducing costs and settlement times.
Sasai operates across multiple African markets, providing digital payments services that will integrate with Circle’s onchain infrastructure.
The companies said they will explore practical applications for USDC (USDC) using Circle’s full-stack platform, as stablecoin usage grows in Africa alongside rising demand for cross-border payments and mobile-first financial services.
The United Nations has set a target of reducing average remittance transaction costs to less than 3% globally. However, costs remain high, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, according to the World Bank. “Sierra Leone, Uganda, Angola, Botswana, and Zambia are among the economies with the highest transaction costs, all greater than 7% in 2023,” according to a World Bank June 2025 report.
Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire said the company is focusing on high-growth payment corridors in emerging markets, while Cassava Technologies Chairman Strive Masiyiwa said the integration could expand access to digital financial services for businesses and consumers.
Data from DefiLlama shows USDC is the second-largest stablecoin by market capitalization at around $78.6 billion, trailing only Tether’s USDT (USDT) at about $184.1 billion.
Related: Africrypt founders back in South Africa years after platform collapse: Report
The rise of crypto and stablecoins in Africa
Crypto adoption in Sub-Saharan Africa has accelerated sharply, up 52% in the 12 months through June 2025, with the region receiving more than $205 billion in onchain value, according to a Chainalysis report from September.
Nigeria accounted for over $92 billion of that activity, followed by South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia and Ghana, with usage largely driven by remittances, cross-border payments and demand for hedging against currency volatility.
The growth is drawing increased interest from crypto companies expanding into the region. Earlier this month, Blockchain.com entered Ghana as part of its broader African push, following more than 700% growth in brokerage transaction volume in Nigeria since launching retail services there.
Regulators are also beginning to formalize the sector. In March, Ghana’s Securities and Exchange Commission approved 11 crypto trading platforms to enter a regulatory sandbox under its newly adopted Virtual Asset Service Providers Act.
At the user level, both Bitcoin and stablecoins are gaining traction for everyday financial use. In January, former UN under-secretary-general Vera Songwe said remittances have become “more important than aid” in Africa, with stablecoins emerging as a faster, lower-cost alternative to traditional transfers.
Speaking on Natalie Brunell’s Coin Stories podcast in March, Africa Bitcoin Corporation executive chairman Stafford Masie said Bitcoin is used as money in some local economies.
Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?
Activity-based rewards are allowed, but anything ‘economically equivalent to interest’ is barred.
Crypto industry leaders reviewed the draft stablecoin yield language in the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act during a closed-door session on Capitol Hill on Monday, and the opening reaction was that the text was overly narrow and unclear, according to CoinDesk.
The draft, negotiated by Senators Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.), bans yield payments for simply holding a stablecoin and restricts any structure that is economically equivalent to a bank deposit, CoinDesk reported. Activity-based rewards tied to loyalty programs, promotions, subscriptions, transactions, and platform use remain permitted, but the mechanics for determining what qualifies as a valid activity remain uncertain.
Circle shares fell 19%, while Coinbase dropped 8% on Tuesday after the draft raised the prospect of strict limits on stablecoin yield.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, who pulled the company’s support for the Clarity Act in January over yield restrictions, causing the Senate Banking Committee to postpone its markup, has yet to comment on the new text. Stablecoin-related revenue represented roughly 20% of Coinbase’s total revenue in Q3 2025.
The stablecoin yield question had been the single largest obstacle blocking the Clarity Act’s path through the Senate since January. Banks, led by the American Bankers Association, argued that stablecoin rewards could siphon deposits from traditional savings accounts. JPMorgan and Bank of America executives cited a Treasury study indicating that banks could lose up to $6.6 trillion in deposits if stablecoins offered unregulated yields, CNBC reported.
The GENIUS Act, signed into law in July 2025, barred stablecoin issuers from paying interest directly to holders but did not prevent third-party platforms from offering rewards — a gap that experts warned would become a key regulatory battleground.
What’s Next
The deal clears the primary hurdle for a Senate Banking Committee markup, now tentatively targeted for late April after the Easter recess. The bill had already been unlikely to advance before then, as Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated earlier this month.
From there, the bill faces a full Senate floor vote requiring 60 votes, reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture Committee’s version passed in January, reconciliation with the House version that passed 294-134 in July 2025, and a presidential signature.
Polymarket currently prices the odds of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 at roughly 63%.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.
The new unit will coordinate policy development and work alongside the SEC’s Crypto Task Force.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Tuesday announced the formation of an Innovation Task Force aimed at developing clearer regulatory frameworks for crypto assets, artificial intelligence, and prediction markets within U.S. derivatives markets.
“By establishing a clear regulatory framework for innovators building on the new frontier of finance, we can foster responsible innovation at home and ensure American market participants are not left on the sidelines,” Chairman Michael Selig said in a statement.
The unit will operate alongside the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee, which was formed in February and includes more than 30 executives, including Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman.
According to the agency, the task force will concentrate on crypto assets and blockchain technology, artificial intelligence and autonomous systems, and prediction markets and event contracts.
The task force will also coordinate with other federal bodies, most notably the SEC and its Crypto Task Force, as both agencies continue to align their regulatory postures.
Interagency Alignment
The announcement extends a run of coordinated action between the two regulators. Earlier this month, the SEC and CFTC signed a memorandum of understanding formalizing their commitment to jointly oversee the digital asset sector.
That MOU followed the SEC’s March 17 interpretive release — arguably its most consequential crypto guidance to date — which classified 16 major tokens, including BTC, ETH, and SOL, as digital commodities that fall outside the SEC’s jurisdiction and are under the purview of the CFTC. The CFTC said it would administer the Commodity Exchange Act consistently with that framework.
Selig had telegraphed much of this agenda at the Milken Institute on March 3, where he said the CFTC was “modernizing” its rules to accommodate DeFi protocols and on-chain market infrastructure.
Prediction Markets in Focus
The inclusion of prediction markets as a core pillar of the task force underscores the CFTC’s intensifying push to assert federal jurisdiction over the rapidly growing sector. The agency launched a sweeping review of prediction markets on March 12 via an advance notice of proposed rulemaking.
Selig has also taken a combative stance against state gaming regulators that have challenged prediction market platforms, filing a friend-of-the-court brief in February in support of Crypto.com against the Nevada Gaming Control Board and warning that the CFTC “will no longer sit idly by” while states undermine its exclusive jurisdiction.
The momentum has coincided with major commercial developments in the space. Last week, Major League Baseball named Polymarket its exclusive prediction market partner and signed its own information-sharing MOU with the CFTC — a first for a professional sports league and the derivatives regulator.
The task force also arrives days after the CFTC granted no-action relief to Phantom, allowing the self-custodial Solana wallet to connect users to derivatives trading through registered market participants without having to register as a broker.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.
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