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Can Silver Reclaim Its $121 All-Time High Before May Ends?

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Silver Falling Channel Pattern

Silver (XAG/USD) trades near $79 after a 3% intraday jump cleared a multi-month resistance shelf, with the dollar simultaneously sliding inside its own falling channel.

The setup combines a structural pattern, an inverse macro driver weakening in lockstep, and a futures positioning read that hints at a quiet but persistent bullish lean. Whether silver can chase its $121.65 all-time high depends on which signal wins out.

Silver Builds Continuation Setup After 167% Surge

Silver surged 167% from its October 2025 low at $45 to an all-time high of $121 in late January. Since that peak, the metal has traded inside a falling channel, a structural pattern bounded by two parallel descending trendlines.

Want more insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Newsletter here.

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Falling channels are not always bearish. When they form after an extended rally, they often resolve as continuation patterns. The structure marks a pause before the prior trend resumes.

Silver Falling Channel Pattern
Silver Falling Channel Pattern: TradingView

Today’s session pushed silver about 3% higher to roughly $79. The move broke above a multi-month resistance shelf that had capped every prior rally attempt. The resistance shelf is revealed later in this piece. For now, the next hurdle would be the upper trendline of the channel. If that breaks, bullish continuation for Silver (XAG) can resume.

The breakout signal is technically clean, but a single-day move means little without macro support. The dollar’s path is the bigger driver.

Dollar Weakness Builds the Case for Higher Silver

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been falling since early April. The index tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies.

Silver and the dollar move inversely. A weaker dollar makes silver cheaper for foreign buyers and lifts emerging market demand. It also reduces the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.

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DXY Falling Channel
DXY Falling Channel: TradingView

The dollar’s slide has been reinforced by macro developments. On May 6, Brent and WTI crude oil prices dropped 7% to 8%. The selloff was driven by optimism around a US-Iran deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

A finalized agreement would reduce safe-haven dollar demand and accelerate DXY weakness. Also, if DXY weakens another 1.55%, the channel breakdown could help silver further.

Whether the dollar’s drop is being priced in, however, depends on positioning at the futures level.

COT Report Shows Cautious Deleveraging With Bullish Lean

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is dated April 28. It shows traders cutting silver exposure across the board.

Total open interest, the number of outstanding futures contracts, dropped by 14,187 to 101,275. Both longs and shorts were reduced, but shorts came off faster. Non-commercial speculators trimmed long positions by 1,919 contracts and short positions by 2,359 contracts. Shorts unwound roughly 23% faster than longs.

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COT Report
COT Report: Tradingster

Net speculative positioning remains structurally long at a 4.4-to-1 long-to-short ratio (31,314 vs 7,154). Commercial hedgers stay heavily short at 69.2% of open interest. This is normal because they hedge physical inventory.

Traders are reducing risk, but the marginal flow is bullish. Shorts are exiting faster than longs. With the macro chain and positioning aligned, silver’s price ladder reveals the actual path to the all-time high.

Silver Price Levels: The Path Back to a $121 All-Time High

Silver just broke above $78, the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This level had been the multi-month resistance shelf.

A sustained reclaim opens $90 (0.382 Fibonacci), where the upper channel trendline breaks meaningfully. Above $90, the next test is $99 (0.5 Fibonacci). That marks a 24% climb from current price.

That $99 level is critical. Silver attempted multiple rallies after the late-January peak but failed to cross $99 on each attempt. Reclaiming it would mark the first decisive break of post-ATH structure.

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Silver Price Analysis
Silver Price Analysis: TradingView

Above $99, the path opens to $108 (0.618 Fib), $120 (0.786 Fib), and the all-time high at $121. That move represents a 53% climb from current price. However, this level surfacing in May depends on how the COT positioning and DXY move evolve through the month.

The downside ladder is narrower. Failure to hold $78 keeps silver in the channel. A slide toward $64 and $60, the channel’s lower band, becomes the next risk. A break below $60 would weaken the entire continuation thesis. For now, $99 separates a silver price run to $121 ATH from a slide to the $64.

The post Can Silver Reclaim Its $121 All-Time High Before May Ends? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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ARK Invest Shifts $32M Into Shopify (SHOP) While Continuing AMD (AMD) Exit

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SHOP Stock Card

Key Takeaways

  • ARK Invest acquired approximately 255,804 Shopify shares valued at $32.6M on May 5, 2026, following impressive first-quarter results
  • The e-commerce platform delivered Q1 revenue of $3.17B, representing 34.3% annual growth, while surpassing $100B in GMV for the first time ever
  • ARK divested $15.6M worth of AMD shares on May 5, extending its ongoing reduction in chip stock holdings
  • AI-generated traffic to Shopify’s merchant stores experienced an 8-fold increase compared to last year
  • Additional May 6 transactions included a $7.9M Tempus AI purchase and another $6.7M AMD sale

On May 5, 2026, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest executed one of its most significant recent transactions, accumulating approximately 255,804 Shopify shares distributed across three exchange-traded funds.


SHOP Stock Card
Shopify Inc., SHOP

The aggregate investment totaled roughly $32.6 million. ARK Innovation ETF accounted for the lion’s share at $20.7 million, constituting 7.8% of that particular fund’s total market capitalization.

Just one day earlier, on May 4, ARK had initiated Shopify purchases worth $6.6 million through the identical ETF vehicle.

This strategic accumulation followed Shopify’s release of first-quarter 2026 financial results. The company posted revenue of $3.17 billion, marking a 34.3% surge versus the corresponding quarter in 2025.

For the first time in company history, Shopify’s gross merchandise volume exceeded $100 billion within a three-month period. The platform achieved free cash flow margins of 15%.

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Merchant solutions generated $2.42 billion in revenue, climbing from $1.74 billion year-over-year. Subscription solutions contributed $750 million, up from $620 million in the prior year period.

According to CFO Jeff Hoffmeister, the performance demonstrated “broad-based growth across geographies, merchant sizes, and channels.” Company leadership projected second-quarter revenue expansion in the “high 20s” percentage range.

Artificial Intelligence Integration at Shopify

During the quarterly earnings discussion, Shopify President Harley Finkelstein characterized the company as having “entered the AI era with a clear edge.” He highlighted two decades of accumulated commerce intelligence as a sustainable competitive moat.

Artificial intelligence-powered traffic to Shopify’s merchant ecosystem expanded 8-fold on an annual basis. Currently, AI systems generate more than half of Shopify’s proprietary codebase. The population of enterprise merchants processing over $100 million in GMV has approximately doubled within a two-year timeframe.

Shopify has partnered with Google to develop the Universal Commerce Protocol, an open-standard framework that counts Amazon among its participants.

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ARK Maintains AMD Reduction Strategy

While accumulating Shopify positions, ARK persisted in divesting Advanced Micro Devices holdings. On May 5, the firm liquidated 45,917 AMD shares worth approximately $15.6 million across its ARKK, ARKW, and ARKF investment vehicles.

AMD stock has appreciated roughly 96% year-to-date on the strength of its own robust earnings performance.

The following day, May 6, ARK disposed of an additional 18,909 AMD shares through ARKK, representing approximately $6.7 million in value.

During that same trading session, ARK accumulated 145,794 Tempus AI shares across ARKK and ARKG ETFs, totaling $7.88 million. The firm also added 28,220 Intellia Therapeutics shares to ARKK, valued at $375,608.

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ARK liquidated 61,351 Twist Bioscience shares across ARKK and ARKG for $3.48 million on May 6, extending a divestment pattern in that position that commenced during the prior week.

Recent disclosure documents indicate ARK’s portfolio is transitioning toward enterprises deploying AI in practical commercial applications, while trimming exposure to semiconductor equities that have already delivered substantial returns year-to-date.

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ETH may lose its biggest buyer as Bitmine mulls slowing down purchases

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ETH may lose its biggest buyer as Bitmine mulls slowing down purchases

Miami — Bitmine (BMNR), the largest Ethereum treasury firm, may slow the pace of its ether (ETH) accumulation as the firm is inching closer to reaching its accumulation goal, Chairman Tom Lee said Thursday at Consensus 2026 in Miami.

The company, which holds over 5.1 million ETH worth around $11.9 billion at current prices, originally expected it would take five years to accumulate 5% of the ETH supply, Lee said. Instead, the company held 4.29% as of this week, less than a year after launching its strategy.

“At our current buying pace of 100,000 ETH a week, we’re going to be there [at 5%] in like six weeks,” Lee said during a keynote presentation. “I think we’re deciding perhaps we want to accumulate at a somewhat slower pace.”

The comments mark a shift in tone for Bitmine, which has remained one of the few large digital asset treasuries still actively buying crypto while many rivals paused accumulation during the market downturn. Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate bitcoin holder and another consistent crypto buyer over the past months, indicated this week it may sell bitcoin to cover dividend obligations, per Executive Chairman Michael Saylor’s suggestion.

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Lee said Bitmine remains profitable through staking income and cash generation, reducing pressure to liquidate crypto holdings during volatile markets. About 85% of Bitmine’s ETH holdings are staked, generating annualized staking revenue exceeding $300 million, or roughly $1 million per day.

The firm is also evaluating other uses for capital, including a recently announced $4 billion share repurchase program and further expansion of MAVAN, its institutional staking platform launched in March. The service is currently staking about $14 billion in digital assets, including ETH, Solana (SOL), and Canton (CC), according to Lee.

Beyond Ethereum, Lee highlighted Bitmine’s investments tied to AI and consumer platforms, including Eightco Holdings (ORBS) and MrBeast’s Beast Industries. He described Eightco as one of the few publicly traded companies offering indirect exposure to OpenAI and Sam Altman’s World project.

Throughout his keynote, Lee reiterated his view that Ethereum stands to benefit from two major trends: the tokenization of financial assets and the rise of AI systems relying on public blockchains for payments and verification.

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Read more: Bitcoin ending May above $76,000 would confirm new bull market, Tom Lee says

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Kalshi Hits $22B Valuation After $1B Raise Amid Prediction Market Surge

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Kalshi Hits $22B Valuation After $1B Raise Amid Prediction Market Surge

Prediction marketplace Kalshi has reached a $22 billion valuation after closing a $1 billion Series F funding round, underscoring growing venture capital appetite for prediction markets amid surging retail adoption.

The new valuation doubles Kalshi’s worth from just five months ago. The funding round was led by Coatue Management, with participation from Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital, Morgan Stanley and Ark Invest.

The raise comes as investors increasingly view prediction markets as one of the fastest-growing segments of digital finance. Andreessen Horowitz’s crypto unit, a16z crypto, recently raised $2.2 billion for its latest fund and identified prediction markets as a major investment theme.

Kalshi has emerged as one of the industry’s dominant platforms. A company spokesperson told Bloomberg that Kalshi’s annualized revenue run rate has surpassed $1.5 billion.

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Unlike rival Polymarket, which operates on decentralized blockchain infrastructure, Kalshi runs a centralized and federally regulated marketplace that allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events, including elections, economic data releases and sports. 

Together, Kalshi and Polymarket accounted for the bulk of the more than $25 billion in prediction market trading volume recorded last month.

Prediction market volumes by platform. Source: Bitget Wallet

Kalshi has also expanded its crypto ambitions. The company recently appointed John Wang as its head of crypto, and he told Forbes that, “We would like to have Kalshi’s prediction markets in every large crypto app.”

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Related: Polymarket odds of Hormuz Strait traffic normalizing by end of May spike to 73%

Regulatory scrutiny intensifies as prediction markets expand

The latest wave of venture backing comes as Wall Street analysts argue that prediction markets are evolving beyond retail speculation into institutional financial tools.

In a recent research note, Bernstein said prediction markets are entering an “institutional era,” driven by demand for bespoke block trades and custom event contracts that allow firms to hedge against specific macro and geopolitical risks.

At the same time, the sector faces mounting legal and political scrutiny in the United States.

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According to NPR, Kalshi is involved in at least 19 federal lawsuits over whether its event contracts violate state gambling laws.

States including Massachusetts, New Jersey, Arizona, Nevada, Illinois and Connecticut have challenged Kalshi’s operations, arguing that some of its sports and event-based contracts amount to unlicensed gambling.

The political pressure has also intensified in Washington. Democratic lawmakers have called for tighter oversight of prediction markets following concerns over “suspicious trades” tied to geopolitical events.

Source: Stephanie Cutter

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In response, Kalshi has expanded its policy and regulatory bench. The company recently brought on former Obama staffer Stephanie Cutter as a policy adviser, a move widely seen as an effort to strengthen its relationships in Washington and navigate the growing scrutiny surrounding prediction markets.

Related: Crypto Biz: Capital has no consensus

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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Spartans Crypto Casino Is Paying $7 Million a Month To Players While Aptos Near $1 & ARB Down 95% From ATH

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Spartans Crypto Casino Is Paying $7 Million a Month To Players While Aptos Near $1 & ARB Down 95% From ATH

Crypto was supposed to create value. In April 2026, most of it is destroying it.

Arbitrum, once the crown jewel of Ethereum’s Layer-2 ecosystem, is trading at $0.11, down 95% from its all-time high of $2.39. The network is growing. TVL crossed $20 billion. Stablecoin supply on Arbitrum hit $8 billion. The El Dorado partnership onboarded a million users across Latin America. None of it moved the price in any meaningful direction.

Aptos just announced one of the most aggressive tokenomics overhauls in crypto history, a 2.1 billion APT hard cap, staking rewards halved to 2.6%, gas fees raised tenfold with full burns, and 210 million APT permanently locked. The governance proposal passed almost unanimously. The market responded with indifference. APT sits near $1, still weighed down by monthly token unlocks that will not ease until October.

Meanwhile, a crypto casino called Spartans.com quietly generated $40 million in Gross Gaming Revenue during its beta phase, processed over $1 billion in wagers, and climbed to 10th in the global rankings. Not by asking anyone to hold a token. By paying them cash on every bet.

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The contrast raises a question that the broader market is not comfortable asking. When infrastructure tokens bleed despite strong fundamentals, and a gambling platform thrives by returning immediate value, where is the real utility in crypto right now?

Arbitrum – Strong Network, Broken Token

Arbitrum’s fundamentals tell one story. Its price tells another. The network continues to lead the Ethereum L2 space in developer activity, DeFi depth, and institutional expansion. The Arbitrum Everywhere initiative targets institutional finance. Stylus enables smart contracts in Rust, C, and C++. The Orbit framework supports custom rollups and Layer-3 chains.

But the ARB token hit an all-time low of $0.08 on March 29th. A 92-million ARB token unlock on April 16th added further supply pressure. Capital is rotating out of altcoins and into Bitcoin, with BTC dominance climbing to 59.2%. The Altcoin Season Index sits at 35, deep in risk-off territory.

For holders, the thesis remains intact. The token does not. Every positive development gets absorbed by macro headwinds and dilution from vesting schedules. ARB is down 95% from peak. The network generates $26,000 in daily fees. The gap between infrastructure value and token value has never been wider.

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Aptos – Deflationary Ambition, Inflationary Reality

Aptos made a bold move. The tokenomics overhaul introduced a hard cap, slashed emissions, and committed to burning all gas fees. Decibel, the chain’s on-chain perpetuals DEX, could burn over 32 million APT annually at scale. Governance Proposal 183 passed with 335.2 million APT voting in favour. The intention is clear, shift from subsidy-driven growth to a performance-driven, deflationary model.

The problem is timing. The four-year vesting schedule for early investors and core contributors does not end until October 2026. Monthly unlocks, like the 11.31 million APT released on April 12th, continue to flood the market. Around 69% of supply is staked, cushioning some sell pressure, but the overhang remains real. APT is trapped between a structurally bullish redesign and a mechanically bearish supply calendar.

For holders, the inflection point is October. Until then, conviction requires patience and tolerance for continued dilution.

Where Spartans Fits

Both Arbitrum and Aptos ask investors to wait. Wait for adoption to reflect in price. Wait for unlocks to end. Wait for macro conditions to stabilise. Spartans asks players to bet, and pays them back immediately.

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The 33% instant CashRake returns up to 3% cashback on every losing bet and up to 33% of the house edge on every wager, win or lose. Instantly. In cash. The $7,000,000 monthly leaderboard, $5 million for first place, is the largest competitive prize pool in online gambling history. Daily leaderboards with $25,000 in prizes run every 24 hours. The platform accepts both crypto and fiat, operates without a native token, and processes withdrawals on-chain with zero delays.

Spartans processed $1 billion in wagers during beta. It pulled in $100 million in deposits. It converted 27,000 first-time depositors in two months. It ranked 10th globally, all before its global launch on August 1st. No token. No vesting schedule. No dilution. Just a transparent rewards model that returns value on every single wager.

The Value Question

The crypto market in 2026 is bifurcating. On one side, infrastructure tokens with genuine utility and growing networks that cannot translate fundamentals into price performance. On the other, platforms like Spartans that skip the token model entirely and deliver immediate, tangible returns to users.

Arbitrum’s network works. Its token does not, yet. Aptos redesigned its economics. The market has not priced it in, yet. Both require time. Both require patience. Both require faith that fundamentals eventually win.

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Spartans requires none of that. It requires a bet. And it pays you 33% back whether you win or lose.

Find Out More About Spartans:

Website: https://spartans.com/

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/spartans/

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Twitter/X: https://x.com/SpartansBet

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SpartansBet


Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.

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AMD Stock Eyes $600 Breakout as Crypto Joins Wall Street’s Agentic AI Rally

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AMD Stock Eyes $600 Breakout as Crypto Joins Wall Street’s Agentic AI Rally

AMD stock price broke out 18.61% to a record $421 on May 7. This happened after Q1 earnings nearly doubled the server CPU growth forecast due to agentic AI demand. The chart now projects a $679 measured-move target on the trend-based extension.

The breakout is mirrored on-chain by Bittensor (TAO), the decentralized AI compute network. TAO rallied in lockstep through the same window.

Both assets price the same agentic AI demand cycle from opposite sides of the compute stack, sharpening the bull thesis underwriting AMD’s path higher.

AMD Stock Price Chart This Week. Source: Google Finance

AMD Stock Breakout Confirmed After Q1 Earnings

AMD stock cleared a quick consolidation on May 6 with a gap-up to $421. This opened the next leg of a structural breakout. The setup followed a +89.14% rally from $192 to $363 through mid-April.

Want more insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Newsletter here.

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AMD price consolidated in a tight descending flag before breaking higher on the heaviest single-day volume in the visible range. Vertical moves into earnings can mean-revert regardless of fundamentals, so volume confirmation continues to matter.

AMD Price Structure
AMD Price Structure: TradingView

The measured move from the flag projects $679, an +89.24% extension of the prior leg. AMD posted Q1 2026 revenue of $10.25 billion, up 38% year over year and ahead of the $9.89 billion consensus.

Data center revenue reached $5.8 billion, up 57% from $3.67 billion a year earlier, with adjusted EPS of $1.37, beating the $1.29 estimate.

The structural reset came on the call.

CEO Lisa Su raised the server CPU TAM growth forecast from 18% to greater than 35% annually through 2030, citing agentic AI workloads as the driver.

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Total Addressable Market (TAM) is the full revenue opportunity available if a product or service captured 100% of demand within its target market, used as the upper-bound sizing benchmark for forecasts.

Independent forecasts back the framing. Gartner predicts 40% of enterprise applications will embed task-specific AI agents by the end of 2026, up from less than 5% in 2025, an eightfold deployment jump that maps onto the demand wave AMD’s data center segment serves.

[Gartner Agentic AI Forecast
Gartner Agentic AI Forecast

With AMD stock price holding at $420 and projecting toward $679, the same demand wave is showing up on the decentralized side of the compute stack.

Bittensor Mirrors AMD’s Breakout as On-Chain AI Compute Demand Tightens

The on-chain mirror of AMD’s agentic AI thesis is Bittensor (TAO), the leading decentralized AI compute network. TAO climbed from roughly 160% between early February and late March. Its recent leg, mirroring AMD’s growth, is already up almost 40%.

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Two pure-play AI compute assets, two parallel rallies, one underlying demand cycle. This sets a key connection between on-chain and Wall Street.

TAO Price Structure
TAO Price Structure: TradingView

On-chain commitment runs deeper than the price chart. The total stake on the Bittensor network sits at 7.28 million TAO, equivalent to roughly $2.2 billion at current prices, and locks up about 67% of the circulating supply.

Of that stake, 70.28% backs the network through root validators, while 29.72% flows directly into subnets running specific AI services.

Bittensor Subnet Stake Split
Bittensor Subnet Stake Split: TaoStats

Network usage validates the positioning.

24-hour subnet trading volume reached 381,940 TAO, equivalent to roughly $117 million in a single day, with 65% of that flow concentrated in Alpha tokens.

Bittensor reportedly generated $43 million in AI usage revenue during Q1 2026, and subnet capacity is doubling from 128 to 256 in early May, structurally mirroring the TAM step-change AMD priced into its server CPU forecast.

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Both assets received institutional validation the same week. AMD posted its Q1 beat on May 5. Grayscale and Bitwise filed for spot TAO ETFs on April 28. The market priced both as the same trade from opposite sides of the compute stack.

With centralized chips and decentralized compute both confirming the thesis, Wall Street’s repricing of AMD shows how the analytical community is now treating the move.

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Wall Street Repricing And The $2.9 Trillion Macro Backdrop

Wall Street is repricing the agentic AI thesis in real time. Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers reiterated a BUY rating on AMD on May 7 and raised his price target from $345 to $505, projecting 19.84% upside on accelerating data center momentum. That alignment matters because $505 sits near a key technical level.

AMD Wells Fargo Price Target Raise
AMD Wells Fargo Price Target Raise: TipRanks

The macro backdrop supporting that repricing is enormous. McKinsey’s midpoint scenario projects that AI-powered agents and robots could generate roughly $2.9 trillion in US economic value annually by 2030, representing automation of about 27% of current work hours.

IDC projects worldwide AI spending will reach $1.3 trillion by 2029, growing at a 31.9% compound annual rate through the period, with agentic AI applications as the primary driver.

Bittensor’s data anchors the same thesis on the decentralized side. The 7.28 million TAO staked into AI compute subnets, and the $43 million Q1 AI usage revenue are not crypto-isolated metrics.

AI Macro Backdrop
AI Macro Backdrop

Both proxies track the same workload Lisa Su called out, but through different settlement layers. As long as both sides accelerate together, the cross-asset thesis holds, and AMD’s higher price levels remain in play.

The remaining question is whether AMD’s price structure can hold the technical levels required to translate the macro thesis into the projected upside.

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AMD Stock Price Outlook

AMD currently trades at $421, sitting just below the 0.5 Fib at $422. This marks the immediate resistance the breakout must reclaim. A daily close above $443, the 0.618 Fib level, would confirm trend continuation. It would open the path toward $472 and the full 1.0 Fib at $508.

That $508 zone aligns within $4 of Wells Fargo’s $505 target, providing both technical and fundamental confirmation of the move.

Beyond $508, the 1.618 Fib extension at $615 marks the structural extended target, with the +89.24% measured move pointing toward $679.

Capital inflows back the bullish setup. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an institutional proxy, sits at 0.41 and continues to trend higher along an ascending support line drawn from early April.

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CMF holding that line tells the story of capital rotating into AMD aggressively enough to support continuation toward higher Fib targets, the same capital rotation that Bittensor’s stake lockup is recording on-chain.

AMD Price Analysis
AMD Price Analysis: TradingView

The downside ladder defines the risk side. A failure to reclaim $422 with rising volume could trigger profit-taking back toward the $402 and $377 levels.

A break of $337 would extend the bullish trend and signal a deeper retrace.

The post AMD Stock Eyes $600 Breakout as Crypto Joins Wall Street’s Agentic AI Rally appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Paul Tudor Jones: AI Rally Has 1-2 Years Left Before Major Correction

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Takeaways

  • Hedge fund legend Paul Tudor Jones believes the AI rally will continue for “another year or two”
  • Jones recently increased his exposure to AI stocks through diversified basket investments
  • The investor draws parallels between today’s AI surge and Microsoft’s PC revolution in 1981 plus the 1995 internet explosion
  • According to Jones, we’re approximately 50–60% through this cycle with potential for 40% additional gains
  • A major correction looms when market capitalization reaches 300–350% of GDP, Jones cautions

Legendary hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones maintains a bullish stance on artificial intelligence stocks, asserting the current rally has significant momentum remaining. During his Thursday appearance on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Jones revealed he recently expanded his AI equity positions and expects the upward trend to persist.

Jones explained his investment approach focuses on diversified equity baskets rather than concentrated positions. “I’m a macro trader, so I just buy baskets,” he noted.

The billionaire investor drew comparisons between today’s AI revolution and two previous technology-driven productivity explosions. The initial example was Microsoft’s emergence during the early 1980s. The subsequent parallel was the internet’s commercial breakthrough circa 1995.

Jones highlighted Anthropic’s Claude Code launch in January as analogous to Microsoft’s personal computer debut in 1981. According to Jones, both events represented inflection points for widespread commercial implementation.

“Those were both the beginning of productivity miracles that lasted four to five and a half years,” Jones explained.

He calculates the current AI expansion is roughly 50% to 60% mature. Using this framework, he projects the market has “another year or two to run.”

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Echoes of the Dot-Com Bubble

Jones identified striking similarities between current market dynamics and late 1999 conditions, approximately twelve months before technology stocks crested in early 2000. He observed that contemporary valuation ratios and earnings indicators closely resemble that timeframe.

He referenced the forthcoming election cycle and incoming Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh as catalysts that might maintain accommodative monetary conditions, comparable to how Y2K anxieties constrained the Fed during 1999.

Jones indicated his expectation for an additional 40% market appreciation before reaching a cyclical top.

Caution Flags on the Horizon

While maintaining his optimistic perspective, Jones emphasized substantial downside risks ahead. He suggested that once stock market capitalization climbs to 300% to 350% of gross domestic product, a severe correction becomes probable.

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“You just know that there’ll be some breathtaking kind of corrections,” he stated.

Jones additionally expressed apprehension regarding artificial intelligence’s existential threats. He argued that governmental intervention through regulation will become necessary and that unregulated AI development poses genuine risks to civilization.

Jones established and leads Tudor Investment Corporation as founder and chief investment officer. He gained widespread recognition for successfully anticipating and capitalizing on the 1987 Black Monday market crash.

He currently serves as chairman of Just Capital, a nonprofit organization that evaluates U.S. publicly traded companies based on social and environmental performance criteria.

Jones delivered his analysis at a conference prior to his Thursday CNBC interview. He declined to disclose the specific AI securities purchased or precise timing of the transactions.

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Kalshi traders see odds rising that a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal will be reached by 2027

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Kalshi traders see odds rising that a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal will be reached by 2027

A cooling tower is seen at the nuclear-powered Vogtle Electric Generating Plant in Waynesboro, Georgia, U.S. August 13, 2024.

Megan Varner | Reuters

Odds that the U.S. and Iran reach a nuclear deal at some point in 2026 jumped on prediction markets platform Kalshi after an Axios report on Wednesday that the two countries were close to an agreement to end the war in the Middle East. 

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Kalshi traders now see a 58% chance that a deal is reached by 2027. They even see a 47% chance an agreement is reached by September. 

Those levels are higher than before the Axios report, but still lower than the odds in the middle of April when there was more hope for a resolution to the conflict. At one point on April 17, odds that the two countries reach a nuclear deal by June were more than 70%. 

The event contract resolves to “yes” if the U.S. announces, signs or accepts a deal from Iran regarding its nuclear program. 

While the Axios report said the countries were close to an agreement to end the war, it added that the countries were only nearing a framework for negotiations around the nuclear issue. However, the deal to end the war could include a moratorium on Iranian nuclear enrichment. 

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Iran said it was reviewing the U.S. proposal on Wednesday, though neither country detailed any new developments on Thursday. 

Traders on Polymarket were more optimistic about a deal before 2027, placing odds of 65% on the bet.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.

Markets shift and headlines fade, but the core principles of building long-term wealth remain constant. Join us for our third CNBC Pro LIVE, where investors of all backgrounds – from financial professionals to everyday individuals – come together to cut through the noise and gain actionable strategies for smarter, more disciplined investing. No matter where you’re starting from, you’ll leave with clearer thinking, stronger strategies. Enter your email here to get a discount code

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South Korea Keeps 22% Crypto Tax, Takes Effect January 2027

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Crypto Breaking News

South Korea will implement a long-delayed tax on cryptocurrency gains, with the levy slated to take effect on January 1, 2027. Finance Ministry officials confirmed the plan during an emergency parliamentary forum on virtual asset taxation in Seoul, marking what appears to be the first public affirmation from the ministry that the crypto tax framework will move forward after successive postponements.

Under the current Income Tax Act, profits from the transfer or lending of virtual assets will be categorized as “other income” starting in 2027. Investors earning more than 2.5 million won annually from crypto activities would be subject to a 22% tax, comprising a 20% national income tax and a 2% local tax. The rule is projected to affect roughly 13.26 million investors. This framework aims to formalize crypto gains within the broader tax system while raising considerations for taxpayers and market participants alike.

According to Edaily, Moon Kyung-ho, director of the Ministry’s income tax division, reiterated that “we will proceed with virtual asset taxation as scheduled in January next year,” signaling a high-level commitment to the January 2027 effective date after a sequence of delays. The discussion occurred at a forum hosted by Representative Park Soo-young of the People Power Party and the Korea Tax Policy Association.

Key takeaways

  • The crypto gains tax is scheduled to become effective on January 1, 2027, with profits from transfers or lending treated as other income under the Income Tax Act.
  • A 22% tax applies to annual crypto profits above 2.5 million won (20% national tax plus 2% local tax), affecting an estimated 13.26 million investors.
  • The National Tax Service is preparing formal guidance and has engaged with five major local exchanges to draft a notice, with legislative review planned in 2026.
  • Past delays and political dynamics have persisted, including a prior push by the ruling party to scrap the tax; oversight and readiness remain central concerns for exchanges and firms.
  • Separately, proposed AML rule amendments targeting overseas transfers have drawn industry pushback, underscoring compliance feasibility and enforcement questions for major exchanges.

Tax framework and industry implications

The forthcoming tax regime places crypto gains within the broader umbrella of taxable income, reclassifying profits from virtual asset transfers and lending as “other income” starting in 2027. The key numeric thresholds establish a 2.5 million won annual profit floor above which the 22% rate applies, a structure that will influence individual taxpayers, crypto traders, and service providers alike. While the exact revenue impact remains a matter of ongoing analysis, the policy aligns with efforts to normalize crypto activity within a formal tax and regulatory framework, which in turn could affect reporting practices, capital exposure, and financial planning for households and institutions involved in digital asset markets.

Moon Kyung-ho’s remarks underscore a commitment to advancing the tax despite earlier postponements. The administration’s position appears to reflect a balance between revenue considerations, consumer protection, and the practicalities of tax administration. For market participants, this signals that preparatory steps—such as tax accounting for crypto gains, tracking of taxable events, and readiness for reporting obligations—will be essential as the 2027 date approaches.

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Guidance development and industry engagement

The National Tax Service is actively shaping the operational framework to implement the new system. In discussions with the five largest domestic exchanges—Upbit operated by Dunamu, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit, and Gopax—the tax authority is formulating a draft notice intended for legislative review in 2026. Moon clarified in subsequent comments that the guidance would arrive within this year, though not on an immediate schedule, indicating a measured rollout tied to regulatory processes and stakeholder feedback.

The collaboration with exchanges aims to address practical issues such as tax reporting mechanics, record-keeping obligations, and the delineation of taxable events, particularly as it relates to transfer versus lending activities. As the guidance progresses, institutions operating in the Korean crypto space will need to align their compliance programs with the forthcoming regulatory instructions to mitigate risk and ensure consistent reporting across the market.

Regulatory backdrop: delays, politics, and AML considerations

Korea’s crypto policy has longstanding tension between the need for robust oversight and concerns about market readiness and regulatory burden. The tax framework’s repeated postponements—from an originally planned 2025 start to the 2027 date—have reflected political disagreements and industry pushback over implementation preparation and threshold design. In parallel, the ruling party has at times signaled openness to revisiting or even scrapping the tax, highlighting how political dynamics can influence how and when policy takes effect.

In a related regulatory track, amendments to South Korea’s anti-money laundering (AML) rules have sparked significant industry pushback. The proposed changes would require exchanges to flag overseas-linked transfers of 10 million won or more as suspicious activity. Industry association DAXA, which represents 27 registered virtual asset service providers, warned that such a threshold would swell reporting volumes dramatically—from about 63,000 cases last year to as many as 5.4 million, potentially rendering compliance burdens impractical in practice. The Financial Services Commission and the Financial Intelligence Unit have opened a public comment period on these AML changes, with final rules expected in July after the review period, which runs through May 11.

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These overlapping regulatory streams—taxation, AML, and exchange operations—collectively shape the environment in which crypto firms, banks, and investors operate. The interplay between tax policy and enforcement priorities will influence licensing considerations, cross-border engagement, and the level of due diligence required for domestic and overseas crypto flows. As enforcement bodies sharpen their oversight, institutions will need to harmonize tax, AML, and KYC processes to address evolving compliance expectations while maintaining operational viability.

Closing perspective

With January 2027 on the horizon, Korea’s crypto tax framework is moving from concept toward operational guidance, anchored by formal notices and stakeholder consultation. The coming months will define the specifics of reporting requirements, the practicalities of compliance for exchanges and individuals, and the balance between regulatory ambition and market practicality. Watching how the National Tax Service finalizes guidance, how the AML amendments unfold, and how political dynamics influence enforcement will be pivotal for institutions navigating Korea’s evolving digital assets regime.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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