Bitcoin price has slipped below $64,000 as renewed US-Iran tensions, volatile oil prices, and a technology-sector sell-off tied to China’s Kimi K3 launch drove investors away from risk assets.

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price fell nearly 2% to $63,785 on Monday before recovering toward $64,000, still down about 1% over the past 24 hours. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained in “Fear” territory at 29, while Ether, XRP, BNB, and Dogecoin also posted slight daily losses.

Middle East risks intensified after a projectile set a vessel ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing its crew to abandon ship before a tugboat rescued them. US strikes also killed one person in Tabriz, while Tehran condemned attacks on the unfinished Darkhovin nuclear facility.

CENTCOM separately reported that a US service member died during the controlled detonation of an unexploded Iranian drone in northern Iraq.

The attacks initially drove crude oil higher as traders assessed the threat to Middle Eastern production and shipping. Brent briefly exceeded $85 per barrel before falling toward $82 after Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that international mediators had submitted proposals to reduce tensions.

Tehran also left the door open to negotiations with Washington if talks served Iran’s national interests. The diplomatic opening reduced immediate supply fears, although attacks on vessels, Iranian cities, and nuclear infrastructure kept the risk of another oil-price surge in place.

Technology stocks added another source of pressure after Beijing-based Moonshot AI released Kimi K3, a 2.8 trillion-parameter model designed for coding and agent-based tasks. Moonshot’s internal tests placed Kimi K3 ahead of several Western rivals in frontend coding, although those performance claims await independent confirmation when the model weights become available.

The launch intensified concerns that cheaper Chinese models could disrupt US artificial intelligence companies and their semiconductor suppliers. Bitcoin has traded closely with technology-heavy equity indices during recent risk-off sessions, leaving the cryptocurrency exposed as investors reduced positions across speculative markets.

US equity funds recorded $4.8 billion in withdrawals during the week ended July 15, according to LSEG Lipper data cited by Reuters. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 8.48% during the same period, while growth funds suffered $7.18 billion in net redemptions.

Bitcoin price must reclaim $65,000 to confirm a sustained recovery

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows repeated failures around $65,047, a former support level that has turned into resistance. Buyers have tested the barrier several times since early July, but each attempt has ended without a daily close above it.

A decisive close over $65,047 would restore the recovery structure and expose the June swing high near $67,000. Until then, Bitcoin remains inside the range between roughly $60,000 and $65,000 that has controlled price action for most of July.

On the 4-hour chart, BTC has fallen below its 20-period simple moving average at $64,206 but remains close to the 50-period average at $64,024. The 100-period SMA at $63,642 offers the next support, followed by the 200-period SMA near $62,708.

4-hour relative strength has dropped to 46.56, below its moving average of 54.60. The reading shows that sellers have regained control of short-term momentum, though BTC has not yet entered oversold territory.

Daily momentum presents a mixed picture. The MACD histogram has slipped below zero to -16.55 as the MACD and signal lines converge, raising the risk of a bearish crossover. However, the Chaikin Money Flow reading remains positive at 0.13, which shows that capital has not left the market at the same pace as the price decline.

According to trader Daan Crypto Trades, Bitcoin is still attempting to close above its weekly 200-period moving average, but a stronger advance is needed to challenge the weekly 200-period exponential moving average.

“Until then, we’re just caught in this $60K choppy price range.”

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have provided limited relief after more than eight weeks of heavy withdrawals, SoSoValue data shows. US-listed funds posted a second consecutive week of net inflows, while BlackRock’s IBIT helped drive a $132 million inflow on Friday despite a $4.2 million withdrawal from Fidelity’s fund. The improvement remains too small to establish aggressive institutional accumulation.

The three-day liquidation heatmap places the largest overhead liquidity concentration around $65,200 to $65,500. A move into that band could force leveraged short positions to close and help BTC challenge the daily resistance near $65,047.

Below the market, liquidation pools sit between $63,300 and $63,600, with another concentration around $62,500 to $62,800. Price frequently moves toward dense leverage zones, making either cluster a potential target if volatility expands.

Loss of $62,700 would expose Bitcoin to another capitulation leg

Bitcoin’s recovery thesis would weaken if sellers force a 4-hour close below the 100-period SMA at $63,642. A subsequent break under the 200-period SMA at $62,708 would expose $60,000, followed by the late-June low near $58,000.

Analyst Ardi warned that the current bear-market decline has not produced the severe capitulation seen before previous cycle bottoms. In his view, either months of range-bound trading must exhaust sellers or a deeper liquidation event must clear the remaining leverage.

Oil remains the main external risk. Failed US-Iran negotiations or renewed threats to regional energy routes could send crude higher again, revive inflation fears, and reinforce the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer policy stance.

For bulls, a daily close above $65,047 would invalidate the immediate bearish setup and open the path toward $67,000. Without that breakout, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to another sweep of leveraged positions below $63,600.

Crypto’s major events this week are set in Washington D.C. A House Financial Services subcommittee opens with a hearing on oversight of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s (OCC) comment period on proposed GENIUS Act rules extending anti-money laundering and sanctions standards to stablecoin issuers closes July 24.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) window on 24/7 trading and perpetual-style bitcoin futures closes July 27, three months after the regulator cleared the first regulated bitcoin perpetual on Kalshi. The GENIUS Act turned one this month, and the rules built on it are still being written.

The macro calendar centers on Thursday’s European Central Bank decision, with markets pricing a hold.

Traders will also be monitoring geopolitical developments and oil prices for potential clues about what markets may do next.

What to Watch

(All times ET)

• Crypto
• Macro
  • July 20, 8:30 a.m.: Canada CPI YoY for June (Prev. 3.2%); Core CPI YoY (Prev. 2.2%)
  • July 22, 2:00 a.m.: U.K. CPI YoY for June (Prev. 2.8%); Core CPI YoY (Prev. 2.6%)
  • July 23, 8:15 a.m.: European Central Bank interest-rate decision est. 2.4% (Prev. 2.4%), followed by press conference at 8:45 a.m.
  • July 23, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for period ending July 18 (Prev. 208K)
  • July 23, 7:30 p.m.: Japan CPI YoY for June (Prev. 1.5%); Core CPI YoY est. 1.6% (Prev. 1.4%)
  • July 24, 4:00 a.m.: Eurozone S&P Global Composite PMI Flash for July est. 50.0 (Prev.50)
  • July 24, 9:45 a.m.: U.S. S&P Global Composite PMI Flash for July (Prev. 51.9)
  • July 24, 9:45 a.m.: U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for July (Prev. 53.9)
  • July 24, 9:45 a.m.: U.S. S&P Global Services PMI Flash for July (Prev. 51.2)
• Earnings
  • July 21: Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR), post-market, $0.61
  • July 22: CME Group (CME), pre-market, $2.99
  • July 22: Tesla (TSLA), post-market, $0.44
  • July 23: Nasdaq (NDAQ), pre-market, $0.95

Token Events

• Governance Votes & Calls
  • ENS DAO is voting on an executable proposal to establish a new security council for a two-year term, granting proposal-cancellation power to the newly elected multisig and contract. Voting ends July 20.
  • Lido DAO is voting to launch a permissionless community staking module and adopt a case-by-case penalty framework for Curated Module v2 node operators. Voting ends July 20.
  • Superfluid DAO is voting on the nominee selection phase for its security council election, where delegates can distribute votes among three contenders. Voting ends July 21.
  • Compound DAO to vote on a proposal to update the cbBTC price feeds in its AERO, USDC, USDS and WETH markets on Base to use the new SVR price feeds. Voting ends July 21.
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting to ratify improvements to its security council election process, including extending member terms from one to two years. Voting ends on July 23.
  • ZKsync DAO is voting on the ZIP-16 v31 protocol upgrade to introduce Priority Mode and to unify the shared codebase between ZKsync Era and ZKsync OS. Voting ends July 23.
• Unlocks
  • July 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 4.6% of its circulating supply worth $20.59 million.
  • July 20: Starknet STRK$0.02816 to unlock 2.6% of its circulating supply worth $5 million.
  • July 21: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.7% of its circulating supply worth $23.3 million.
  • July 21: MORPHO$2.0066 to unlock 1.2% of its circulating supply worth $24 million.
  • July 23: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.4% of its circulating supply worth $12.3 million.
  • July 24: WLD$0.3588 to unlock 1.5% of its circulating supply worth $57.7 million.
  • July 25: Humanity Protocol (H) to unlock 2.7% of its circulating supply worth $15.6 million.
  • July 26: Toncoin (TON) to unlock 0.9% of its circulating supply worth around $69.9 million.
• Token Launches

Conferences

Allbridge Core has paused its cross-chain stablecoin protocol after an attacker stole roughly $1.65 million from its Solana liquidity pools, according to security firms CertiK and PeckShield.

Allbridge is a bridge that lets users move assets between blockchains that do not communicate directly. Its Core product uses liquidity pools to transfer native stablecoins such as USDC and USDT without issuing wrapped versions of the assets.

The attacker used a $1.12 million flash loan from Solana lending protocol Kamino to rapidly swap USDC and USDT, manipulating the pools’ internal ratios before withdrawing assets at favorable rates, according to Onchain Lens. A flash loan is a loan taken and repaid within the same transaction.

The stolen assets were bridged to an Ethereum address and dispersed across additional addresses. It isn’t currently clear how much remains under the attacker’s control.

Allbridge said it paused the protocol while investigating, and told liquidity providers to withdraw from affected pools. The initial manipulation left the pools imbalanced and created a temporary arbitrage opportunity. Allbridge asked traders who profited from the pricing distortion to return funds for LP compensation.

Allbridge suffered a similar flash loan attack in 2023 that drained roughly $650,000 from its BNB Chain pools. The firm later said it recovered most of the funds and changed its liquidity and withdrawal calculations. Allbridge had raised $2 million in 2022 to expand the bridge and fund security audits.

Tether has faced renewed scrutiny over whether USDT can remain available on U.S. crypto platforms unless the stablecoin issuer meets the requirements of the GENIUS Act before its compliance window closes.

According to a CoinDesk report, the first anniversary of the GENIUS Act has brought renewed attention to Tether’s regulatory path as the company remains the largest stablecoin issuer by market value while U.S. regulators continue working on rules needed to fully implement the law.

President Donald Trump signed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act into law one year ago. Although the legislation introduced a three-year transition period for compliance, questions remain over how some of its deadlines apply to foreign-issued stablecoins such as Tether’s USDT.

While U.S.-based Circle has moved to align itself with the incoming framework, Tether has not publicly detailed how it intends to bring USDT into full compliance. The report also noted that Tether did not respond to multiple requests for an updated position before publication.

Last July, Tether chief executive Paolo Ardoino said the company intended to comply with the GENIUS Act. Speaking to CoinDesk after the bill was signed at the White House, Ardoino said, “Tether will comply with the GENIUS Act,” adding that the company planned to launch a separate U.S.-focused token while also ensuring USDT satisfied the law’s foreign issuer requirements.

Questions remain over compliance timeline

Even with two years remaining before the law’s general transition period expires in July 2028, lawyers continue to debate whether foreign issuers receive the same grace period as domestic companies.

Justin Levine, a lawyer at Davis Polk who advises clients on stablecoin regulation, told CoinDesk that foreign issuers will need to comply immediately with provisions allowing authorities to freeze and seize assets linked to illicit activity once the law becomes effective, which is expected around January. However, he said additional requirements tied to continued U.S. exchange listings would likely have a longer implementation period.

“Upon the effectiveness of the GENIUS Act, foreign issuers will need to immediately comply with lawful orders to seize and freeze coins held by illicit actors, but they will have a runway of approximately two more years to prepare for the additional requirements so that their coins may remain eligible for listing on U.S. centralized trading platforms,” Levine said.

He added that one of those future obligations, registration with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, would likely require a “significant undertaking.”

“So they do have time, as long as they comply with seize and freeze orders,” Levine said.

“But those that want to have their coins continue to be traded on U.S. centralized platforms and have that liquidity should still be thinking about it right now, even if it’s not imminent that they’re going to get delisted.”

CoinDesk also reported that an earlier legal interpretation published by law firm Paul Hastings had suggested foreign issuers could face a different compliance timeline. After the publication sought clarification, the report said the interpretation was removed from the firm’s website, while representatives did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Further guidance from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has also left room for interpretation. CoinDesk said an OCC proposal includes a footnote indicating that 2028 remains the general compliance deadline but notes that certain requirements for foreign issuers begin once the law takes effect. These early obligations appear to center on cooperation with law enforcement requests involving asset freezes and seizures, while broader requirements would follow later.

Beyond these initial measures, foreign issuers are expected to satisfy additional conditions, including OCC registration, maintaining reserves at U.S. financial institutions, and operating under home-country supervision that the U.S. Treasury determines is comparable with the American regulatory framework.

Reserve structure draws attention

CoinDesk also pointed to Tether’s latest reserve disclosures, saying approximately one-quarter of USDT’s backing remained invested in assets that would not qualify under the GENIUS Act’s reserve standards. According to the report, those assets include bitcoin holdings, precious metals, and lending exposure.

The legislation instead requires qualifying stablecoins to be backed by highly liquid assets such as cash and short-term U.S. Treasury securities.

Although regulatory questions continue, Tether has already introduced USAT, a U.S.-focused stablecoin issued through banking partner Anchorage Digital with American compliance standards in mind. Adoption of the token has remained relatively limited compared with USDT.

Kevin Wysocki, head of policy at Anchorage Digital, told CoinDesk the company expects institutional adoption to move ahead of the legal deadline.

“Non-compliant stablecoins cannot be used by U.S. institutions when the safe harbor expires in 2028, but we don’t expect the market to wait,” Wysocki said. He added that Anchorage expects institutions to migrate toward “compliant, bank-issued digital dollars well ahead of that deadline.”

Expansion continues as regulation develops

Even as compliance discussions continue in the United States, Tether has expanded both its investment activity and enterprise payment strategy across several markets.

Earlier this month, the company led a $7 million funding round for Pact Labs to integrate USAT into payroll infrastructure serving a U.S. payroll market processing more than $11 trillion annually. Tether said the partnership is intended to allow employers to settle wages using blockchain payment rails instead of relying solely on conventional banking systems.

Outside payroll, Tether has also increased its focus on corporate treasury operations. Hyundai Motor America and Hyundai Motor Mexico recently completed a pilot cross-border treasury payment using USDT over the Avalanche blockchain, settling a $20,000 transfer in about seven minutes through infrastructure provided by Axiym, while Hyundai Card managed the compliance and operational framework for the transaction.

Latin America has remained another priority. Over recent weeks, Tether has invested $20 million in Brazilian exchange Mercado Bitcoin and another $20 million in Argentine digital bank Ualá as part of its latest funding round. The company also previously led a $14 million investment in Argentine crypto platform Belo to expand crypto payment products and financial services across the region.

Meanwhile, Bolivia is evaluating a proposal that would recognize USDT alongside the boliviano and the U.S. dollar within parts of its payment system. Local reports have indicated that Banco Unión and Banco FIE already provide services connected to USDT, although authorities have yet to publish a final legal framework.

Despite those international expansion efforts, the regulatory picture inside the United States remains unfinished. Federal agencies have yet to finalize the implementing rules required under the GENIUS Act, leaving stablecoin issuers without a complete regulatory framework to follow even as the first compliance obligations approach.

Trevor Tanifum, managing principal at consulting firm FS Vector, was cited in the report saying that some trading platforms with lower risk tolerance could choose to delist non-compliant stablecoins early, while larger exchanges with stronger legal resources may continue supporting them until regulators provide definitive guidance.

“It’s pretty much what has happened, I think, at every major crypto hurdle,” Tanifum said. “These platforms still count on a lot of transaction volumes, liquidity from non-U.S. issuers, and so I can’t see them giving up those volumes without a fight.”

At the same time, much of the crypto industry’s policy focus has shifted toward the proposed CLARITY Act, which lawmakers continue to debate in Congress. If enacted, the legislation could revise parts of the GENIUS framework, adding another layer of uncertainty as Tether, Circle and other stablecoin issuers prepare for federal oversight in the months ahead.

Key takeaways

• LayerZero (ZRO) fell about 3% on Monday, extending last week’s 9% decline.
• The network is set to unlock 25.71 million ZRO tokens, equivalent to 4.6% of the total supply, increasing potential selling pressure.
• Despite bearish price action, futures trading volume surged 552%, reflecting heightened retail interest.
• Technically, ZRO remains in a downtrend, with support at $0.734 and a potential downside target near $0.532.

LayerZero (ZRO) extended its recent losses on Monday, falling roughly 4% as investors prepared for one of the project’s largest scheduled token unlocks.

The token has already declined about 9% over the past week, and the release of 25.71 million ZRO into circulation could add further selling pressure in the short term.

Although derivatives activity has surged ahead of the unlock, market positioning suggests traders remain cautious about the token’s near-term outlook.

Monthly token unlock adds supply pressure

According to Tokenomist data, LayerZero will unlock 25.71 million ZRO tokens on Monday, representing approximately 4.6% of the token’s total supply.

The newly unlocked tokens will primarily be allocated to strategic partners and core contributors.

At the same time, approximately 1.67 million ZRO, or 0.3% of the released supply, will be repurchased through a buyback program.

The planned buyback may signal confidence from the project’s core team, but the additional circulating supply is still expected to weigh on short-term price action as investors assess potential selling activity.

While institutional allocations are set to increase, retail traders have become increasingly active in LayerZero’s derivatives market.

CoinGlass data shows futures trading volume surged 552% over the past 24 hours to $248.65 million. Meanwhile, Open Interest (OI) increased 4.52% to $80.87 million, indicating new positions are entering the market.

The rise in both trading volume and Open Interest suggests growing speculation ahead of the token unlock.

However, sentiment appears to be shifting. Despite higher trading activity, perpetual futures funding rates have weakened.

The funding rate declined to 0.0061% from 0.0121% a day earlier, indicating demand for leveraged long positions is easing.

Lower funding rates often reflect reduced confidence among bullish traders, particularly before major token unlocks that increase circulating supply and create expectations of additional selling pressure.

The combination of rising speculative activity and weakening bullish positioning suggests investors remain cautious heading into the unlock event.

LayerZero price prediction: Bears remain in control

From a technical perspective, LayerZero continues to trade within a well-established downtrend.

The token remains below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $0.957, reinforcing bearish momentum.

The outlook also remains negative following the death cross formed in late April, when the 50-day EMA crossed below the 200-day EMA—a signal often associated with sustained downward trends.

Technical indicators continue to support the bearish outlook. Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads around 36, indicating strong bearish momentum while remaining above oversold territory.

Both the MACD and signal lines remain below zero and continue trending lower, suggesting downside momentum persists.

These indicators show sellers continue to dominate despite increased derivatives activity.

The most important downside support remains at $0.734, the major structural support and Fibonacci anchor.

A decisive break below this level could accelerate selling and expose the next technical target at $0.532. Reaching this level would represent roughly 25% downside from current prices.

If buyers manage to regain momentum following the token unlock, the first resistance zone sits around $0.945 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), with another hurdle at $0.957 (50-day EMA).

A daily close above this resistance cluster would reduce immediate bearish pressure and could open the door for a move toward $1.325.

However, reclaiming the 50-day EMA remains necessary before a broader recovery can develop.