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Charles Hoskinson: Bitcoin Quantum Upgrade Cannot Save Coins

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • Charles Hoskinson said Bitcoin’s quantum proposal would require a hard fork instead of a soft fork.
  • He argued that the plan would invalidate existing signature schemes used by current Bitcoin users.
  • Hoskinson stated that the proposal cannot recover about 1.7 million early mined bitcoin.
  • He said roughly 1.1 million of those coins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto.
  • The proposal suggests users could reclaim frozen funds through zero-knowledge proofs tied to BIP-39 seed phrases.

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson challenged a new Bitcoin proposal that targets quantum threats. He said the plan would require a hard fork rather than a soft fork. He also argued that the change cannot recover early coins linked to Satoshi Nakamoto.

Bitcoin’s Quantum Proposal Faces Hard Fork Dispute

Bitcoin developers proposed BIP-361 to freeze addresses vulnerable to future quantum computers. They said the change would phase out old signature schemes and protect dormant funds. However, Hoskinson rejected the claim that the plan qualifies as a soft fork.

He stated, “To actually do this, you need a hard fork,” in a YouTube video. He argued that the proposal invalidates signature rules that users still rely on. Therefore, he said old software would stop working unless every participant upgrades.

Developers described BIP-361 as a rule tightening that older nodes could accept. In contrast, Hoskinson said the measure changes core validation standards. He added that Bitcoin culture has long opposed hard forks because they alter network history.

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BIP-361 co-author Jameson Lopp addressed the debate on X this week. He wrote that he does not like the proposal and hopes adoption never becomes necessary. He called it “a rough idea for a contingency plan” rather than a final plan.

Satoshi-era Holdings Remain Beyond Recovery

Hoskinson said the plan cannot protect about 1.7 million early bitcoin. He stated that around 1.1 million of those coins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto. He argued that those holdings predate modern wallet standards.

BIP-361 suggests that users could reclaim frozen funds through zero-knowledge proofs. The proof would tie ownership to a BIP-39 seed phrase used in newer wallets. However, Hoskinson said early wallets did not use seed phrases.

He explained that the original Bitcoin software relied on a local key pool. That system generated private keys without a deterministic seed phrase. Therefore, he said no proof based on BIP-39 can verify those older coins.

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He said, “1.7 million coins can’t do that. It’s not possible.” He added that migration would require cryptographic proof that early holders cannot produce. As a result, those coins would remain frozen under the proposal.

Lopp estimated that 5.6 million bitcoin sit dormant across the network. He argued that freezing them would prove safer than letting quantum attackers unlock them. He presented the freeze as a protective option rather than a finalized policy.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin’s Quantum Migration May Reveal Number of Satoshi Coins: Adam Back

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Blockstream CEO Adam Back said Thursday that a future post-quantum migration of Bitcoin could help clarify how many coins linked to Satoshi Nakamoto remain accessible, because any owner wanting to protect vulnerable holdings would need to move them to a new address format.

Speaking at Paris Blockchain Week, Back said such a migration would likely give users ample time to move funds and argued that coins left unmoved after that process could reasonably be treated as lost.

“This migration to post-quantum address format may tell us how many of those coins [Satoshi] still has,” said Back, adding that the pseudonymous creator has an estimated 500,000 to 1 million Bitcoin (BTC).

Satoshi’s Bitcoin stash has ignited heated debate among Bitcoin holders concerned by the quantum computing threat. On Wednesday, Jameson Lopp and five co-authors published a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal aimed at restricting the future movement of coins held in quantum-vulnerable address formats, including older coins whose public keys have already been exposed.

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Adam Back, keynote speech at Paris Blockchain Week in 2026. Source: Cointelegraph

Blockchain data platform Arkham estimates that Nakamoto-linked wallets hold 1.09 million Bitcoin, currently valued at $81.6 billion.

Related: Bernstein says Bitcoin market already priced in quantum risk

Back sees long runway on quantum

Back said Bitcoin developers and holders still have substantial time to prepare, arguing that a quantum breakthrough capable of threatening Bitcoin signatures is at least 20 years away.

He argued that today’s quantum computers are “less powerful than a $5 calculator” and that some of their issues become more pressing as these systems scale, such as their energy consumption.

Back said that runway should give developers and users ample time to develop a post-quantum path and migrate to a new quantum-resistant standard underpinned by hash-based signatures.

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Hash-based signature schemes for Bitcoin, research paper. Source: Blockstream Research

In December 2025, Back’s Blockstream Research released a paper proposing a hash-based signature scheme that offers a “promising path for securing Bitcoin in a post-quantum world,” as a quantum-safe replacement for the ECDSA and Schnorr signatures. Under the proposal, security would rely solely on hash function assumptions, similar to the ones currently used in Bitcoin’s network design.

The Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) uses elliptic-curve cryptography to verify the authenticity and integrity of a message. Schnorr signatures are another signature scheme praised for enhancing privacy and reducing data size, due to their ability to combine multiple signatures into one.

Magazine: Bitcoin vs. the quantum computer threat — Timeline and solutions (2025–2035)