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China Metals Futures Jump 86%, Retail Frenzy Triggers 38 Rule Changes

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Shanghai Futures Exchange trading volumes chart

Industrial metals have suddenly become one of the most crowded trades in China, with futures volumes in aluminum, copper, nickel, and tin surging as retail traders pile into the market.

The spike in activity has pushed exchanges and regulators to intervene repeatedly, raising concerns that a wave of speculation—rather than fundamentals—is driving prices and volatility.

Recent market data shows trading activity in key base metals accelerating at an exceptional pace. Combined futures volumes in aluminium, copper, nickel, and tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged sharply month-over-month, reaching levels far above the recent average.

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Shanghai Futures Exchange trading volumes chart
Shanghai Futures Exchange trading volumes from January 2025 to January 2026, showing 78 million lots traded in January 2026 with nickel dominating at 30 million lots. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

Nickel contracts led the rally, with trading volumes jumping several-fold in a single month. Tin markets also saw extraordinary activity, with daily trading volumes at times exceeding levels that dwarf typical physical consumption benchmarks.

The turnout points to derivatives speculation, not industrial demand, dominating flows, with retail participation being a key catalyst.

Metals trading has become a trending topic across Chinese social media platforms and WeChat trading groups.

“…short-term momentum strategies and leverage are increasingly popular among individual investors,” the Kobeissi Letter indicated.

This pattern mirrors earlier speculative episodes seen in equities, crypto, and commodities, where retail enthusiasm quickly amplified price swings.

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The rally’s speed has forced exchanges to step in. Both Shanghai and regional futures markets have repeatedly raised margin requirements and tightened trading rules in recent weeks.

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“As a result, the Shanghai and Guangzhou Futures Exchanges have raised margins and tightened trading rules 38 times over the last 2 months to try to contain the speculation. The metals rush is far from over,” Markets Today reported.

This unusual but frequent set of interventions may signal mounting concern about excessive leverage. Historically, such measures have been used to slow speculative inflows and stabilize markets when price movements become detached from underlying supply-and-demand fundamentals.

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However, repeated tightening also shows:

  • How quickly trading volumes have expanded
  • How difficult it may be to contain momentum once retail participation reaches critical mass.

Periods of rapid speculative growth often precede sharp corrections, particularly in highly leveraged derivatives markets.

At the same time, the broader metals complex is sending mixed signals. Silver, in particular, has experienced one of the strongest rallies in its history, climbing sharply over the past year before entering a more volatile consolidation phase.

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Silver (XAG) Price Performance
Silver (XAG) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Against this backdrop, some strategists argue that silver and other metals have become stretched relative to broader commodity indices. In previous cycles, such conditions sometimes preceded cooling price action.

Others counter that structural supply constraints and strong industrial demand, especially from energy transition technologies, could continue to support elevated prices over the longer term.

The divergence in views reflects a market struggling to distinguish between structural trends and speculative excess.

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Macro Forces Lurking Behind the Rally

Beyond retail speculation, the metals surge comes amid broader macroeconomic shifts. China has been steadily reducing its holdings of US Treasuries while increasing gold reserves.

This reinforces the perception that global capital is increasingly seeking diversification away from TradFi assets.

The People’s Bank of China has reported consecutive months of gold accumulation, a trend mirrored by several other central banks in recent years.

While these macro trends do not directly explain the retail-driven surge in industrial metals trading, they contribute to a wider narrative that investors at multiple levels—from individuals to sovereign institutions—are reassessing risk, liquidity, and the role of hard assets in portfolios.

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China shifts from U.S. Treasuries to gold chart
Chart illustrating China’s declining U.S. Treasury holdings from 29% in June 2011 to 7.3% now, alongside a sharp increase in gold reserves to $370 billion. Source: DefiWimar

The combination of retail speculation, tightening exchange controls, and mixed macro signals suggests volatility is likely to remain elevated in the months ahead.

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MoonPay adds Ledger-secured AI crypto agents to deal with wallet key risks

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MoonPay unveils AI onramp for brave new agent economy

Crypto payments firm MoonPay added Ledger hardware wallet signing to its command-line interface (CLI) wallet for MoonPay Agents, a move the company says addresses a security challenge introduced by autonomous crypto trading tools.

The new feature allows users to verify and sign every transaction generated by an AI agent using a Ledger hardware device, ensuring private keys never leave the hardware signer. MoonPay said the integration makes the CLI wallet the first agent-focused wallet to support Ledger’s secure signing through the company’s Device Management Kit.

Autonomous crypto agents are a growing category of tools designed to execute trading strategies, rebalance portfolios and move assets across chains without constant human input. But security concerns have slowed adoption, because many implementations require users to hand over direct access to wallet keys.

“Autonomous agents will manage trillions in digital assets,” said Ivan Soto-Wright, CEO and founder of MoonPay. “But autonomy without security is reckless. We built MoonPay Agents with Ledger so intelligence can scale without surrendering control. The agent executes. The human stays in the loop.”

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Ledger’s chief experience officer, Ian Rogers, said the integration reflects the growing number of developer-focused wallets and AI-driven tools entering crypto.

“There is a new wave of CLI and agent-centric wallets emerging, and these will need Ledger security as a feature, too,” Rogers said.

Read more: Your AI is getting a bank account: MoonPay just gave bots the power to spend money

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Olivier Janssens’ Nevis Project Offers Residents $100 a Month

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Olivier Janssens’ Nevis Project Offers Residents $100 a Month

Belgian-born crypto millionaire, Olivier Janssens, reportedly offered to pay Nevis residents $100 per month if the government approves his development plans for a tech-friendly libertarian community on the Caribbean island.

Jannsens’ Destiny, a project aiming to buy and restructure about 2,400 acres of land on the Caribbean island, said it will begin paying residents $100 per month, “immediately once the final agreement with the government is approved,” according to an email seen by the Financial Times. 

The monthly $100 figure is an increase from the initial 30 East Caribbean dollars (US$11) announced by the project in November 2025.

The offer drew sharp criticism from opponents of the project, who said it amounted to an attempt to influence public opinion and government approval.

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Kelvin Daly, a member of the Nevis Reformation Party (NRP), condemned the move for allegedly pressuring authorities into accepting the development plans. “Janssens and De Primer have upped their bribe from US$30/month to US$100/month,” wrote Daly in a Facebook post on Monday.

“This is influence buying, a clear attempt by a private developer to interfere in the domestic socioeconomic and political affairs of our country.”

Daly urged authorities to investigate the initiative for breaches under the Anti-Corruption Act.

Project Destiny, preview. Source: Destiny.com

Destiny is seeking approval under St. Kitts and Nevis’ Special Sustainability Zones framework, a legal regime passed in 2025 that enables projects of this kind.

The initiative plans to invest $50 million into Nevis’ infrastructure to fund hospitals, health centers, villas, and create more jobs, while sharing 10% of the profit with citizens and 10% with Nevis’ sovereign wealth fund.

Cointelegraph has approached Destiny for comment on the approval timeline of the project.

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Janssens was an early Bitcoin investor and briefly served on the Bitcoin Foundation’s board in 2015, when he publicly said the organization was “effectively bankrupt.”

Former Coinbase exchange chief technical officer, Balaji Srinivasan, announced a similar initiative at the Network State Conference in Singapore in October 2025.

During his speech, he urged crypto and tech enthusiasts to collectively buy land and create more tech-friendly communities, positioning it as Silicon Valley’s “ultimate exit” from “failing” US institutions.

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Srinivasan also shared a document that showed a total of 120 “start-up societies” in development worldwide.