Crypto World
China Metals Futures Jump 86%, Retail Frenzy Triggers 38 Rule Changes
Industrial metals have suddenly become one of the most crowded trades in China, with futures volumes in aluminum, copper, nickel, and tin surging as retail traders pile into the market.
The spike in activity has pushed exchanges and regulators to intervene repeatedly, raising concerns that a wave of speculation—rather than fundamentals—is driving prices and volatility.
Recent market data shows trading activity in key base metals accelerating at an exceptional pace. Combined futures volumes in aluminium, copper, nickel, and tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged sharply month-over-month, reaching levels far above the recent average.
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Nickel contracts led the rally, with trading volumes jumping several-fold in a single month. Tin markets also saw extraordinary activity, with daily trading volumes at times exceeding levels that dwarf typical physical consumption benchmarks.
The turnout points to derivatives speculation, not industrial demand, dominating flows, with retail participation being a key catalyst.
Metals trading has become a trending topic across Chinese social media platforms and WeChat trading groups.
“…short-term momentum strategies and leverage are increasingly popular among individual investors,” the Kobeissi Letter indicated.
This pattern mirrors earlier speculative episodes seen in equities, crypto, and commodities, where retail enthusiasm quickly amplified price swings.
The rally’s speed has forced exchanges to step in. Both Shanghai and regional futures markets have repeatedly raised margin requirements and tightened trading rules in recent weeks.
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“As a result, the Shanghai and Guangzhou Futures Exchanges have raised margins and tightened trading rules 38 times over the last 2 months to try to contain the speculation. The metals rush is far from over,” Markets Today reported.
This unusual but frequent set of interventions may signal mounting concern about excessive leverage. Historically, such measures have been used to slow speculative inflows and stabilize markets when price movements become detached from underlying supply-and-demand fundamentals.
However, repeated tightening also shows:
- How quickly trading volumes have expanded
- How difficult it may be to contain momentum once retail participation reaches critical mass.
Periods of rapid speculative growth often precede sharp corrections, particularly in highly leveraged derivatives markets.
At the same time, the broader metals complex is sending mixed signals. Silver, in particular, has experienced one of the strongest rallies in its history, climbing sharply over the past year before entering a more volatile consolidation phase.
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Against this backdrop, some strategists argue that silver and other metals have become stretched relative to broader commodity indices. In previous cycles, such conditions sometimes preceded cooling price action.
Others counter that structural supply constraints and strong industrial demand, especially from energy transition technologies, could continue to support elevated prices over the longer term.
The divergence in views reflects a market struggling to distinguish between structural trends and speculative excess.
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Macro Forces Lurking Behind the Rally
Beyond retail speculation, the metals surge comes amid broader macroeconomic shifts. China has been steadily reducing its holdings of US Treasuries while increasing gold reserves.
This reinforces the perception that global capital is increasingly seeking diversification away from TradFi assets.
The People’s Bank of China has reported consecutive months of gold accumulation, a trend mirrored by several other central banks in recent years.
While these macro trends do not directly explain the retail-driven surge in industrial metals trading, they contribute to a wider narrative that investors at multiple levels—from individuals to sovereign institutions—are reassessing risk, liquidity, and the role of hard assets in portfolios.
The combination of retail speculation, tightening exchange controls, and mixed macro signals suggests volatility is likely to remain elevated in the months ahead.
Crypto World
Coinbase’s x402 Payment Protocol Moves to Linux Foundation With Backing From Google, Stripe, and Visa
The open standard for embedding payments into HTTP interactions aims to become the settlement layer for AI agent commerce, with over 20 founding members spanning tech, payments and crypto.
The x402 protocol, Coinbase’s open standard for embedding stablecoin payments directly into web interactions, has officially moved to the Linux Foundation as the newly launched x402 Foundation opens its doors with a broad coalition of industry heavyweights.
The announcement, made Thursday at the MCP Dev Summit North America, marks the protocol’s transition from a Coinbase-led project to a vendor-neutral, community-governed standard designed to accelerate adoption as AI agents increasingly need to pay for services autonomously.
The foundation’s initial governing body includes Cloudflare and Stripe, and founding members include Adyen, Amazon Web Services, American Express, Ampersend.ai, Ant International, Base, Circle, Fiserv Merchant Solutions, Google, KakaoPay, Mastercard, Merit Systems, Microsoft, Polygon Labs, PPRO, Sierra, Shopify, Solana Foundation, Thirdweb and Visa.
From HTTP Error Code to Payment Layer
The x402 protocol revives HTTP’s long-dormant “402 Payment Required” status code, turning it into a functional payment handshake. When an AI agent requests a paid resource, the server responds with a 402 status containing machine-readable price and settlement details. The client signs a payment payload and retries the request, and a facilitator verifies and settles the transaction on-chain.
The design supports both fiat and crypto payment methods across multiple blockchains.
The launch comes as the race to build the internet’s AI payment layer intensifies. x402 faces competition from the Machine Payments Protocol, developed by Stripe and Paradigm’s Tempo blockchain, which uses session-based authentication rather than x402’s per-request model.
Google has already integrated x402 into its Agentic Payments Protocol as the default stablecoin rail. The surrounding infrastructure is also expanding: MoonPay last week released the Open Wallet Standard for AI agent wallet interactions, Visa launched its CLI payment tool targeting agent commerce, and Circle built its Nanopayments directly on x402 for sub-cent USDC transactions.
Coinbase and Cloudflare first announced their intent to create the foundation in September 2025. By placing the protocol under the Linux Foundation’s governance, x402 aims to function as an AI commerce equivalent to SSL, the encryption standard that has become foundational to secure web browsing.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) range-bound trading within the $60,000 to $73,000 range is impressive, especially when considering the macroeconomic backdrop of Brent crude oil rising to levels not seen since 2008, a hot war between the US, Israel and Iran, and a volatile stock market where the S&P 500 index trades at a 3.95% year-to-date loss.
Despite these intensifying headwinds, Bitcoin buyers have shown a steady appetite for buying the price drops to $60,000, and while the level currently holds as support, the risk of lower prices is not zero.
Bitcoin’s 1-day chart shows a bearish continuation pattern, with one pattern confirmed on Jan. 20 as BTC price entered a correction to $60,014, and a second bear flag currently in play. Every price rally to the flag’s overhead trendline has been rebuffed since Feb. 8, and technical analysis stresses the importance of a rally and multi-day candle close above $76,000 to negate the pattern.
Ideally, a rally to $76,000 would hold through a 2- to 3-day consecutive-candle close, followed by a retest of the trendline at $75,000 to confirm a support-resistance flip, where a former resistance level is now confirmed as support.
Analysis by chartered market technician Aksel Kibar predicts a potential price drop to $52,500. Referencing analysis from March 18, Kibar said that a,
“Breakdown of the lower boundary will be the signal for a possible move toward $52,500.”
Related: Bitcoin traders forecast short-term downside even as BTC price chases $68K
Data from Velo highlights the relatively flat market demand across Bitcoin’s spot and futures markets. Although traders appear to view instances where BTC’s funding rate turns negative as a buying opportunity, their confidence is largely absent during rallies into the bear flag’s trendline resistance.
Evidence of this is seen in Bitcoin’s aggregated open interest remaining pinned below $20 billion, a level not seen since Feb. 2 when BTC traded near $79,000.
Regarding Kibar’s $52,500 price prediction and its alignment with Bitcoin’s futures markets, Hyblock liquidation heatmap data shows a large number of leveraged long positions at risk of liquidation if BTC falls into the $63,000 to $65,000 range.
Below this is a liquidity gap, and the next block of open margin long positions starts in the $57,500 to $56,000 range.
The current price action essentially reflects a market that trades sideways and consolidates as traders search for capital flow or narrative-related factors that would push them into larger directional bets.
Until such a catalyst emerges, it’s likely that Bitcoin will continue to trade within its $10,000 range, with $60,000 as the lowest key support and $70,000 as the most challenging level of resistance.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
Summary
- The Central Bank of Nigeria has launched a supervisory pilot for virtual asset providers, selecting KuCoin alongside five local fintech and crypto firms.
- The program focuses on AML, CFT and CPF compliance in line with FATF standards, requiring detailed reporting and upgrades to governance, monitoring and Travel Rule controls.
- KuCoin’s inclusion underscores its push to align with national regulatory frameworks in major emerging markets, rather than operating purely offshore.news.
The Central Bank of Nigeria has launched a pilot supervisory program for Virtual Asset Service Providers and selected a first cohort of six entities, with KuCoin standing out as the only global crypto exchange on the list. According to local press coverage, the initial phase includes Nigerian payment and crypto players cNGN, Flutterwave, Juicyway, KoinKoin and Paystack, alongside KuCoin, which serves a global user base but has significant volumes in Africa’s largest crypto market.
The pilot is designed to test how selected VASPs perform under direct central bank oversight on issues such as anti-money laundering, counter-terrorism financing and counter-proliferation financing, all framed against the Financial Action Task Force’s Recommendations 15 and 16. CBN statements cited by outlets including Leadership and AInvest describe the program as a structured effort to understand VASP business models, risk controls and data flows, and to push participants toward full FATF-aligned compliance.
Under the arrangements, participating firms must engage in regular, structured regulatory communications with the central bank and other agencies. They are required to submit periodic data on AML/CFT/CPF performance, undergo audits of customer onboarding and KYC, sanctions screening, transaction monitoring, and demonstrate credible plans to track cross-border flows under the Travel Rule for crypto transfers.
The pilot, which is expected to run for six to nine months, does not itself confer licenses or formal approval, but it does bring KuCoin and the local platforms into what the CBN calls a “controlled and structured environment” for supervision. Authorities say the goal is to move from fragmented restrictions to a risk-based regime that can both weed out bad actors and keep Nigeria’s $92.1 billion annual crypto flows inside a more stable, transparent framework.
For KuCoin, being named in the first batch alongside domestic fintech leaders is a signal that Nigerian regulators see the exchange as a core liquidity node worth pulling into the official perimeter. Analysis from regional outlets notes that the pilot engages “Nigeria’s most visible VASPs,” suggesting KuCoin’s role in local crypto activity made it unavoidable for the CBN’s initial supervisory experiment.
The selection also fits KuCoin’s broader narrative of improving its compliance posture across emerging markets, as regulators from Africa to Asia tighten rules for offshore exchanges after years of largely unregulated growth. If KuCoin can meet Nigeria’s demands on governance, monitoring and Travel Rule adherence, it will strengthen the case that large global platforms can operate under domestic oversight rather than being pushed out of key markets.
Crypto World
Crypto market structure bill release pushed back as industries view revised stablecoin yield compromise this week
Representatives of the crypto and banking industries are meeting with legislative staffers on Thursday and Friday to review revised compromise language on stablecoin yield provisions in the market structure bill, three people familiar with the plans told CoinDesk.
Industry representatives first viewed the compromise language, spearheaded by Senators Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), last week. At the time, the proposed compromise banned yield based solely on stablecoin balances, but did allow companies to pay out yield based on activities. The crypto industry had some issues with the language.
Politico first reported that the meetings were taking place earlier Thursday.
The text was originally expected to be released this week, but that is now unlikely. Crypto in America first reported that the text release would be delayed on Wednesday.
An individual familiar told CoinDesk earlier this week that portions of the language were still being negotiated. Another person told CoinDesk late last week that some of the crypto industry’s desired changes were largely technical tweaks to clarify details, rather than substantive changes around the treatment of yield.
It was not clear as of press time what actual changes were made, or when the text may be released to the general public.
Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) said last month that she expected a markup hearing — where lawmakers will debate the bill, possible amendments and vote on whether to advance the legislation to the full Senate — later in April. Under the Senate Banking Committee’s rules, the bill must be published at least 48 hours before the hearing.
While stablecoin yield and rewards are the most prominent issues holding up passage of the market structure bill, other concerns remain outstanding. These include how exactly decentralized finance (DeFi) might be defined and regulated in the bill and whether it will address U.S. President Donald Trump’s family’s involvement with various crypto projects.
Li Xiong, 41, the former chairman of Huione Group and a core member of what Chinese authorities call the Chen Zhi criminal syndicate, was escorted off a China Southern Airlines flight in Beijing on April 1 – shaven-headed, handcuffed, flanked by officers from China’s Ministry of Public Security.
The real story is what his extradition confirms: Beijing is systematically dismantling the leadership layer of what the US Treasury identified as the world’s largest illicit crypto marketplace, and Cambodia is cooperating.
Huione Group processed over $89 billion in cryptoassets through what Elliptic researchers described as the largest illicit online marketplace ever identified – a number that dwarfs most legitimate crypto exchanges by transaction volume.
- Who Was Extradited: Li Xiong, 41, former chairman of Huione Group, extradited from Phnom Penh to Beijing on April 1, 2026, at China’s request following a joint Sino-Cambodian investigation.
- Alleged Role: Li is accused of multiple crimes as a core figure in the Chen Zhi syndicate, which allegedly ran cross-border gambling, fraud, and crypto laundering operations across Southeast Asia.
- Network Scale: Huione Group’s marketplace processed over $89 billion in cryptoassets, serving pig-butchering scam centers and facilitating laundering linked to North Korean state-sponsored cyber heists.
- Enforcement Context: Li’s extradition follows Chen Zhi’s arrest in January 2026 and the US Treasury’s May 2025 designation of Huione as a primary money-laundering concern – part of a coordinated multi-jurisdiction squeeze.
- Compliance Signal: FinCEN directed US banks to sever all accounts and payments tied to Huione Group in October 2025; the extradition reinforces active enforcement risk for any institution with residual Huione exposure.
- What to Watch: Chinese authorities have indicated ongoing investigations and additional syndicate arrests – further asset seizures and indictments targeting Prince Group subsidiaries are the next likely enforcement move.
Discover: Top Crypto Presales to Watch Before They Launch
What the Huione Extradition Actually Covers – and Why the Sequencing Matters
China’s Ministry of Public Security confirmed the operation via WeChat, describing Li as a “core key member” of the Chen Zhi syndicate suspected of “multiple crimes” tied to a “major cross-border gambling and fraud syndicate.”
Cambodian authorities arrested Li separately at Beijing’s formal request before transferring custody – a distinction that matters, because it signals Cambodia is now acting on specific Chinese extradition requests rather than conducting broad regional sweeps.
Huione Group operated as a subsidiary of Prince Group, the holding entity controlled by Chen Zhi. The structure was deliberate: Prince Group provided corporate legitimacy while Huione ran the payment infrastructure that funneled proceeds from pig-butchering scams – elaborate long-con investment frauds targeting victims globally – into the broader financial system via crypto.
The US Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network designated Huione a “primary money-laundering concern” in May 2025, citing its role processing over $4 billion in traceable illicit transactions between August 2021 and January 2025 – including proceeds from North Korean cyber heists.
That North Korea connection is not incidental. It elevated Huione from a regional enforcement problem to a sanctions-tier national security concern, which accelerated US pressure on Cambodia to act. Li’s extradition, three months after Chen Zhi’s, follows the pattern: leadership arrests are running top-down through the syndicate hierarchy.
Explore: Best Crypto Projects With High Growth Potential in 2026
The post Alleged Huione Group Money Laundering Boss Extradited to China appeared first on Cryptonews.
Crypto World
Hyperliquid Price Surge as Futures Volume Blows Out, Golden Cross Standard Breakout to $44
Hyperliquid prices soar as the futures trade activity expands. Open interest has risen to about 1.61 billion in the past 24 hours, signaling increased participation in the futures market.
Daily trading volumes have surged to record levels of over 2.4 billion, indicating strong demand for perpetual contracts and growing trader confidence in further upside.
The rise in open interest and volume suggests market participants are not leaving the market but are actively pursuing gains, supporting the current bullish trend.
Key Insights
- The derivatives participation and greater market conviction were shown by open interest exceeding 1.6 billion.
- Daily trading volumes exceeded 2.4 billion, boosting token burn mechanisms and increasing demand.
- Bullish technicals, such as a flag formation and a possible golden cross, point to a rise to 44 if momentum continues.
Futures Trading Pushes the Price
The recent price run-up is closely linked to rising derivatives trading activity. Market data show open interest around 1.61 billion in the past 24 hours, indicating more traders engaging in the futures.
Daily volumes have soared beyond 2.4 billion, signaling strong demand for perpetual contracts and growing trader confidence in further upside movement.
The increase in open interest and volume indicates market participants remain active, supporting the bullish trend.
Diversification to Real-World Assets
The platform’s move into physical assets trading has increased activity. With HIP-3, perpetual contracts based on commodities like gold, silver, and crude oil are now tradable.
This enables traders to gain exposure to conventional assets in a crypto-native setup. In March, daily volumes in crude oil contracts reached over $1 billion at the peak amid geopolitical tensions.
Moreover, the 24/7 trading feature provides a competitive edge, especially as event contracts enhance engagement.
Hyperliquid has added event-based contracts, adding another layer of participation for traders. These tools let users speculate on real-life results while managing futures exposure.
Consequently, trading activity has risen, contributing to higher fee generation. This supports token buybacks and burn facilities, which gradually reduce supply and promote price stability.
The mix of new products and increased user interaction continues to strengthen the platform’s ecosystem.
Bullish Technical Set Up Develops
Technically, Hyperliquid’s price action shows signs of a bullish continuation pattern. A flag formation formed after a sharp rise, suggesting consolidation before a potential breakout.
Additionally, the token is approaching a milestone: a potential golden cross as the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. This is typically viewed as a bullish signal upon confirmation.
If a breakout occurs, the next major resistance zone is around the 44 level, which analysts in traditional markets are watching in response to global events in real time.
Risks and Key Support Levels
Despite the optimistic forecast, there are downside risks. The 200-day moving average sits near 34.8 and serves as a critical support zone.
A break below this level could undermine the current setup and shift the mood to the downside. Traders will monitor price action around this region to confirm continuation or reversal.
Prognosis: Derivatives Activity Is Still Important
Derivatives trading is likely to remain a major driver of Hyperliquid’s short-term trajectory. Open interest and volumes are expected to grow, reflecting trader confidence.
Additionally, token burns tied to platform charges and product diversification contribute to liquidity and demand.
If these trends persist, Hyperliquid may continue its upward trajectory, with technical confirmations and the possibility of an upward price target near the $44 level.
Bitcoin fell below $67,000, and Ether dropped over 4% as oil surged on renewed geopolitical tensions.
Crypto markets slumped on Thursday as a fresh wave of risk-off sentiment swept across global markets following President Donald Trump’s pledge to continue military strikes against Iran.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at around $66,900, down 1.7% over the past 24 hours. ETH slipped 4% to $2,050, and SOL plunged 6% to $79 in the wake of the Drift exploit. Meanwhile, Ripple (XRP) dropped 3.3%.
Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 1.7% to $2.38 trillion, according to Coingecko.
The rout was triggered after Trump said Wednesday evening that the U.S. would continue strikes on Iran, reversing hopes for a diplomatic resolution that had buoyed markets earlier in the week.
The risk-off mood extended to institutional products. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $173.7 million on April 1, while spot Ethereum ETFs posted a $7.1 million withdrawal, according to SoSoValue.
Big Movers
Almost all of the Top 100 digital assets posted losses over the last 24 hours.
Algorand (ALGO) and MemeCore (M) outperformed, rallying 5%. Lighter (LIT) surged 10% after unveiling a collaboration with Wallet in Telegram.
Uniswap (UNI) and Solana (SOL) are today’s biggest losers, down 13% and 6%, respectively.
Around 185,000 leveraged traders were liquidated for $441 million in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass. Bitcoin accounted for $103 million, while ETH made up $93 million.
Investors tried to pull $13 billion out of private credit funds this quarter. They got less than half. For many crypto investors, if the collapse of private credit continues, half could end up being a good outcome.
Seven private credit giants capped investor withdrawals this quarter, including Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Apollo, Blue Owl, Cliffwater, Blackstone, and Ares. Oaktree almost joined that group, although it technically fulfilled its 8.5% in withdrawal requests by having parent Brookfield buy 1.7% of shares at the eleventh hour.
Private credit funds package up illiquid loans inside vehicles that typically go up, except during rare times of crisis, such as during a major war or mass job losses.
They also typically limit quarterly withdrawals to 5%, which is not a problem until many people want out, like they do now.
When more than 5% want to withdraw, everyone gets a haircut on their withdrawal request. At Apollo and Ares, 11% wanted out. Those funds returned less than half.
Crypto started joining the private credit bandwagon years ago, selling similar products in a different wrapper. Many stablecoin and altcoin treasury managers invest in private credit directly.
‘A quasi run on the bank’
Michael Saylor delivered a keynote at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit on March 26, the same week Apollo and Ares gated withdrawals. He pitched his company’s dividend-paying stocks as competitors to private credit.
Saylor even called the multi-trillion dollar private credit crisis this year “a quasi-run on the bank.”
Worse, the same companies gating traditional private credit withdrawals are tokenizing private credit on blockchains. Apollo launched ACRED, a tokenized feeder into Apollo’s Diversified Credit Fund. A few months after that launch, Apollo’s partner Securitize had built sACRED, a derivative to goose yields even higher through risky decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols.
Holders can buy ACRED, deposit it into DeFi vaults, borrow stablecoins, buy more ACRED, and loop. Yields after looping, which are tantamount to risk, soared.
Securitize initially advertised daily redemption rights for ACRED holders, which was quite curious given that most private credit funds limit quarterly redemptions to 5%. Then, after crypto publication Unchained asked about the mismatch with the fund’s quarterly 5% cap, Securitize quietly removed daily liquidity rights.
Easier to buy, just as hard to sell
In other words, crypto tokenization changed the speed at which people could buy and add leverage. It did not change the speed at which they could sell.
Nor did crypto improve the most important characteristic of private credit: the deteriorating credit qualities of US borrowers who are suffering higher fuel prices, AI-induced job layoffs, wartime uncertainty, inflation, and rising costs of living.
Crypto sold versions of the same illiquid debt that investors cannot exit quickly in any environment, let alone the current “quasi run on the bank” reality.
By one analyst’s count, tokenized private credit surged from $25 million to $6 billion over the last year.
Read more: Bitcoin mortgages debut with 60% haircut and no margin calls
Using blockchain for private credit instruments merely extends leverage and the rehypothecation chain that amplifies losses in a market downturn.
Goldfinch, a DeFi protocol for undercollateralized real-world lending, has already suffered three defaults totaling $18 million. The most recent default wiped out more than 7% of its active loan book.
A bad loan is still a bad loan, even if a smart contract wraps it in a token.
Billions queued up to leave private credit
Apollo Debt Solutions, valued at about $15 billion, received redemption requests for 11.2% of its shares. It enforced a 5% cap and returned $730 million of $1.5 billion requested. Ares Strategic Income Fund faced 11.6% in requests and did the same.
Blackstone recorded a record 7.9% in requests totaling nearly $4 billion. It raised its cap to 7% and injected $400 million of its own capital. BlackRock’s $26 billion fund received $1.2 billion in requests. Cliffwater’s $33 billion fund saw the worst: 14% demanded back.
Across roughly a dozen funds, about $4.6 billion in investor capital remains trapped.
Blue Owl Capital is the poster child of the current crisis in private credit. The company permanently halted redemptions from its retail-focused Blue Owl Capital Corp II in February. Its stock has declined 42% since the start of the year and 60% over the past twelve months.
Smelling blood, a shark investor launched a tender offer for 6% of Blue Owl Capital Corp II at about 65 cents on the dollar.
“All you need is for the snowball to start rolling down the hill, and it has begun,” the investor said at a recent investment conference.
Crypto credit risks
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed private credit on March 30 at Harvard University. He called it a correction, not a systemic event.
Nonetheless, Powell’s contentious reassurance arrived the same week that DZ Bank, Germany’s second-largest lender, warned that private credit could trigger a chain reaction with severe negative effects for the US economy.
A record 63% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America identified private equity and private credit as the most likely source of the next wave of systemic bankruptcies.
Default rates would tend to agree. The private credit default rate reached 5.8% through January 2026, the highest since Fitch’s index launched. Morgan Stanley forecasts it will climb to 8%, more than triple the historical average. UBS has warned that severe AI disruption to software borrowers could push defaults to 13%.
Software exposure is the fault line. About 26% of direct lending loans went to software companies. Many built business models on costly subscriptions that AI is now undermining. Blackstone’s flagship BCRED fund posted its first monthly loss in three years in February after marking down loans.
Wall Street spent years pitching private credit as institutional-grade yield, and crypto wanted to democratize and decentralize it. What they actually democratized and decentralized was the purchase of opaque, illiquid loans by retail investors with 5% quarterly redemption limits whose fund managers choose the valuations of their own assets with broad discretion.
As Protos has previously reported, this type of opacity in financial products is a feature, not a bug. Now those investors want their money back. The funds are returning less than half.
Powell says it is not systemic. About two thirds of private fund managers disagree.
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Polymarket is expanding its predictive markets beyond purely cryptocurrency-related events, adding contracts tied to traditional assets. The new offerings rely on price data from the Pyth Network to determine outcomes for daily contracts, including up/down bets and closing price contracts for major equity indices, commodities such as gold and oil, and a range of US-listed stocks. Settlements are automated, with contracts resetting at the end of each trading session.
In its announcement, Polymarket notes that the expanded lineup includes more than a dozen US-listed stocks, featuring blue-chips such as Tesla, Nvidia and Apple, alongside commodity and index-based markets. By adopting Pyth as the resolution layer, Polymarket is moving away from manual or exchange-specific references toward a standardized data feed that aggregates prices from multiple market participants.
Key takeaways
- Polymarket launches traditional-asset markets (stocks, indices, commodities) using Pyth Network for automatic, real-time settlement.
- The new markets include daily up/down and closing price contracts for major US-listed stocks (e.g., Tesla, Nvidia, Apple), plus gold and oil, settled via Pyth feeds with daily resets.
- Polymarket also introduced Pyth Terminal, a live data interface showing the reference values used to settle contracts and a continuously updating price-to-beat tracker for traders.
- ICE’s investment signals strategic backing: ICE completed a $600 million cash investment in Polymarket last week and may acquire up to $40 million more in shares as part of a broader commitment to the platform.
- Oracle networks are expanding beyond crypto, with government and traditional finance applications increasingly relying on on-chain price and economic data.
Polymarket’s bridge to traditional markets
The rollout marks a notable shift for Polymarket, which has historically focused on event-driven markets—ranging from elections and sports to financial and weather outcomes. By anchoring settlement to Pyth’s real-time price feeds, the platform can offer automated outcomes for assets that trade outside the typical crypto-native hours, broadening the potential audience of traders who want to speculate on or hedge exposure to conventional markets.
The inclusion of US-listed equities, including Tesla, Nvidia and Apple, alongside commodity and index contracts, positions Polymarket at the intersection of prediction markets and traditional financial markets. The Reuters-style mechanics of “daily up/down” and “closing price” contracts enable end-of-day settlement that mirrors conventional price discovery, while still leveraging the transparency and programmability of blockchain-backed markets. The Business Wire release emphasizes that Pyth’s data is the reference used to resolve these bets, replacing ad hoc or venue-specific price references.
Pyth Terminal and the changing face of on-chain data
Concurrently, Pyth Network introduced Pyth Terminal, a data interface designed to give users a transparent view of live price feeds and the reference values underpinning Polymarket settlements. The terminal provides a continuously updating price-to-beat line, allowing traders to monitor how shifts in real-time data could affect contract outcomes. This level of visibility is meant to enhance trust and operational clarity for users participating in cross-asset markets on the platform.
Pyth’s broader push into traditional finance data aligns with a growing trend among oracle networks to serve not just crypto protocols but also financial infrastructure and prediction markets. The same trend is evident in other collaborations—Chainlink, RedStone and Kalshi integrations, and shifts toward 24/5 pricing data for tokenized assets—reflecting a broader push to tether decentralized markets to official or widely accepted data feeds.
Oracles, finance, and the regulatory backdrop
The expansion of oracle networks into real-world data has taken on additional significance as governments and financial firms increasingly rely on on-chain information. Notably, Chainlink and Pyth have been cited by US government agencies as sources for publishing on-chain economic data, including GDP and inflation metrics. The market response to these developments has been tangible: the PYTH token surged more than 70% on the day of the announcement, lifting its market capitalization above $1 billion.
These developments sit within a broader ecosystem where oracles are being integrated into both traditional finance and regulatory-compliant data pipelines. For example, Kalshi’s integration via RedStone across multiple blockchains demonstrates how regulated, exchange-traded event contracts can leverage cross-chain data feeds. Meanwhile, data providers continue to compete for share in a market that DeFiLlama currently indicates remains highly concentrated, with Chainlink accounting for roughly two-thirds of total value secured, and RedStone and Pyth each representing a smaller slice.
Strategic backing from ICE and implications for users
Intercontinental Exchange, Polymarket’s backer, disclosed last week a $600 million cash investment in Polymarket and an option to acquire up to $40 million more in shares as part of a broader multibillion-dollar commitment to the platform. ICE’s involvement underscores a deepening convergence between traditional exchange operators and crypto-based prediction markets. For Polymarket, the arrangement could unlock new liquidity channels and potential product expansions, while ICE gains exposure to a novel form of event-based market activity that sits at the convergence of data, finance and user-generated insights.
From an investor and trader perspective, the move expands the set of tools available to hedge or speculate on real-world events. The use of a single, standardized data source like Pyth to settle a wide array of assets could simplify risk management for participants and may encourage more institutional participation that relies on consistent, auditable price feeds. For developers and platform builders, the integration demonstrates a viable pathway for connecting traditional assets to decentralized marketplaces without sacrificing transparency or speed of settlement.
As the ecosystem evolves, readers should watch how these traditional-asset markets perform in terms of liquidity, user adoption and regulatory compliance. The synergy between Polymarket’s user-driven contracts and ICE’s financial infrastructure could shape how predictive platforms scale beyond niche audiences, potentially influencing how everyday investors interact with real-world assets on-chain.
Overall, the fusion of Polymarket’s prediction market model with Pyth’s enterprise-grade price data signals a meaningful step toward broader applicability of oracle-powered settlement. The coming months will reveal how well these traditional-asset markets attract liquidity, how robust the data feeds prove under volatile conditions, and what regulatory and market structure developments might accompany this cross-asset expansion.
What remains unclear is how this model will fare across different asset classes during periods of stress, and whether further collaborations between traditional exchanges and on-chain data providers will accelerate the adoption of tokenized or blockchain-anchored versions of equities and commodities. Traders and builders alike should keep an eye on the next wave of product updates, market depth, and any regulatory clarifications that could affect the trajectory of cross-asset prediction markets.
Stablecoins were a rare bright spot in an otherwise subdued crypto market in the first quarter, with supply growth and transaction activity pointing to sustained demand even as broader market conditions weakened.
Total stablecoin supply increased by roughly $8 billion to a record $315 billion in Q1, according to data from CEX.IO. Although this marked the slowest pace of expansion since Q4 of 2023, it still represented growth during a period when the wider crypto market contracted.
The data suggests investors rotated into stablecoins as a defensive strategy, boosting their share of overall market activity. Stablecoins accounted for 75% of total crypto trading volume during the quarter — the highest level on record.
At the same time, total stablecoin transaction volume topped $28 trillion, underscoring their growing role as the primary liquidity layer of the digital asset market. The figure extends a multi-year surge in activity, with stablecoin volumes in recent years exceeding those of major payment networks like Visa and Mastercard combined.
However, data on underlying activity painted a more nuanced picture.
Retail-sized transfers — typically associated with individual users — declined by 16% in the first quarter, the steepest drop on record. In contrast, automated activity surged, with bots accounting for approximately 76% of all stablecoin transaction volume.
The shift toward bot-driven flows suggests that a growing share of stablecoin usage is tied to algorithmic trading, arbitrage and liquidity provisioning, rather than retail demand. While elevated automation can reflect more sophisticated or institutional participation, it may also signal weaker organic demand during bearish market conditions.
Related: Circle shares surge as Bernstein sees upside from stablecoin adoption
Divergence between major stablecoin issuers
One of the CEX.io report’s key takeaways was a widening divergence between major stablecoin issuers. The supply of Circle’s USDC (USDC) grew by roughly $2 billion in the first quarter, while Tether’s USDt (USDT) declined by about $3 billion, marking the first notable split between the two since Q2 of 2022 amid the bear market.
The trend aligns with earlier Cointelegraph reporting, which highlighted a surge in USDC transfer activity in February, pointing to increased usage across trading and onchain transactions.
Beyond USDC, much of the growth in stablecoin issuance was driven by yield-bearing products — a segment that has drawn increasing scrutiny in the US. Ongoing discussions around a crypto market structure bill in Congress have placed yield at the center of debate, with traditional banks pushing back against stablecoins that offer interest-like returns.
The market for yield-bearing stablecoins is currently valued at around $3.7 billion, with daily trading volumes exceeding $100 million, according to data from CoinGecko.
Related: Crypto Biz: Stablecoin jitters meet institutional momentum
Soluna funds $53M wind farm to power AI facility for Bitcoin mining
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Bitcoin Will Drop Below $50K Unless… [Watch Today]
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