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China Metals Futures Jump 86%, Retail Frenzy Triggers 38 Rule Changes

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Shanghai Futures Exchange trading volumes chart

Industrial metals have suddenly become one of the most crowded trades in China, with futures volumes in aluminum, copper, nickel, and tin surging as retail traders pile into the market.

The spike in activity has pushed exchanges and regulators to intervene repeatedly, raising concerns that a wave of speculation—rather than fundamentals—is driving prices and volatility.

Recent market data shows trading activity in key base metals accelerating at an exceptional pace. Combined futures volumes in aluminium, copper, nickel, and tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged sharply month-over-month, reaching levels far above the recent average.

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Shanghai Futures Exchange trading volumes chart
Shanghai Futures Exchange trading volumes from January 2025 to January 2026, showing 78 million lots traded in January 2026 with nickel dominating at 30 million lots. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

Nickel contracts led the rally, with trading volumes jumping several-fold in a single month. Tin markets also saw extraordinary activity, with daily trading volumes at times exceeding levels that dwarf typical physical consumption benchmarks.

The turnout points to derivatives speculation, not industrial demand, dominating flows, with retail participation being a key catalyst.

Metals trading has become a trending topic across Chinese social media platforms and WeChat trading groups.

“…short-term momentum strategies and leverage are increasingly popular among individual investors,” the Kobeissi Letter indicated.

This pattern mirrors earlier speculative episodes seen in equities, crypto, and commodities, where retail enthusiasm quickly amplified price swings.

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The rally’s speed has forced exchanges to step in. Both Shanghai and regional futures markets have repeatedly raised margin requirements and tightened trading rules in recent weeks.

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“As a result, the Shanghai and Guangzhou Futures Exchanges have raised margins and tightened trading rules 38 times over the last 2 months to try to contain the speculation. The metals rush is far from over,” Markets Today reported.

This unusual but frequent set of interventions may signal mounting concern about excessive leverage. Historically, such measures have been used to slow speculative inflows and stabilize markets when price movements become detached from underlying supply-and-demand fundamentals.

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However, repeated tightening also shows:

  • How quickly trading volumes have expanded
  • How difficult it may be to contain momentum once retail participation reaches critical mass.

Periods of rapid speculative growth often precede sharp corrections, particularly in highly leveraged derivatives markets.

At the same time, the broader metals complex is sending mixed signals. Silver, in particular, has experienced one of the strongest rallies in its history, climbing sharply over the past year before entering a more volatile consolidation phase.

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Silver (XAG) Price Performance
Silver (XAG) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Against this backdrop, some strategists argue that silver and other metals have become stretched relative to broader commodity indices. In previous cycles, such conditions sometimes preceded cooling price action.

Others counter that structural supply constraints and strong industrial demand, especially from energy transition technologies, could continue to support elevated prices over the longer term.

The divergence in views reflects a market struggling to distinguish between structural trends and speculative excess.

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Macro Forces Lurking Behind the Rally

Beyond retail speculation, the metals surge comes amid broader macroeconomic shifts. China has been steadily reducing its holdings of US Treasuries while increasing gold reserves.

This reinforces the perception that global capital is increasingly seeking diversification away from TradFi assets.

The People’s Bank of China has reported consecutive months of gold accumulation, a trend mirrored by several other central banks in recent years.

While these macro trends do not directly explain the retail-driven surge in industrial metals trading, they contribute to a wider narrative that investors at multiple levels—from individuals to sovereign institutions—are reassessing risk, liquidity, and the role of hard assets in portfolios.

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China shifts from U.S. Treasuries to gold chart
Chart illustrating China’s declining U.S. Treasury holdings from 29% in June 2011 to 7.3% now, alongside a sharp increase in gold reserves to $370 billion. Source: DefiWimar

The combination of retail speculation, tightening exchange controls, and mixed macro signals suggests volatility is likely to remain elevated in the months ahead.

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Crypto World

Liquidity Determines Tokenization’s Value

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Liquidity Determines Tokenization’s Value

Opinion by: Sebastián Serrano, founder and CEO of Ripio.

For much of the past decade, the crypto industry has tried to tokenize niche assets in an attempt to reinvent finance. While creative, this approach has largely missed the core economic truth about where tokenization actually creates value.

In these early stages of blockchain adoption, tokenization works best not at the fringes of the economy, but at its center. The industry’s first instinct — to tokenize illiquid assets — was a miscalculation. The most successful tokenization effort involved the most liquid asset in the world (the US dollar) in the form of USD-backed stablecoins.

Stablecoin supply keeps climbing. Source: Artemis.

Today, companies are piloting tokenized versions of other highly liquid assets like Treasury bills, smaller currencies and increasingly, stocks. This is not accidental. Tokenization is most powerful when applied to assets that already have massive demand and standardized legal and financial frameworks. Liquidity is the precondition that allows tokenization to move from novelty to infrastructure.

Tokenize what people want

Tokenization should start with assets that are already in high demand. Money, sovereign debt and major financial instruments are the base layer of the global economy. They are used daily by governments, corporations and individuals. When you tokenize these assets, you are not trying to create demand from scratch. You are upgrading the rails on which trillions of dollars already move.

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If we look into our recent history, we find that electricity obviously wasn’t first used to power fancy art installations, but factories. Blockchains are no different. They reach their potential when they tokenize money and core financial primitives, not edge-case assets. 

Stablecoins succeeded. They mapped directly onto an existing, massive use case. Stablecoins move dollars globally, quickly and cheaply. Tokenized treasuries are gaining traction for the same reason. They represent a real, high-demand asset that institutions already hold at scale.

Tokenization adds the most value where frictions are large and expensive. Bonds move trillions of dollars, but they do so inefficiently. Tokenization compresses settlement from days to minutes. Tokenization allows assets and cash to move together, in real time, without relying on intermediaries. That changes the cost structure and risk profile of financial operations.

Network effects only emerge around assets in very high demand, like money and sovereign debt. When you tokenize them, you create immediate interoperability. Everyone can build around the same unit of account. This is why stablecoins became the backbone of on-chain finance.

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Related: Australia’s central bank backs tokenization as pilot finds $16.7B upside

NFTs and highly bespoke RWAs are the opposite. They are fragmented by design. Each asset is unique, legally ambiguous and difficult to standardize. That makes them incapable of becoming a shared economic layer. They may have cultural or speculative value, but they cannot anchor broad financial network effects.

Market effects of tokenizing liquid assets

Adding programmability to illiquid assets, you can fractionalize ownership or automate certain workflows. You do not, however, unlock new forms of economic coordination. The asset still does not trade frequently. It still lacks deep markets. 

With liquid assets, however, tokenization unlocks entirely new financial behaviors. Continuous settlement, streaming payments, automated collateral management. These are just some of the novelties that tokenization can bring.

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There are other considerations. Can you use a given tokenized asset as collateral? This is an important question, and the answer is that it mostly depends on liquidity. After all, liquid assets can be safely integrated as collateral into automated systems. Their valuations are transparent and updated in real time. 

Roughly $96 billion in liquid assets are locked and used across DeFi protocols. Source: DefiLlama.

Illiquid assets, however, have sporadic trades, subjective valuations and wide bid-ask spreads. Their nature makes them very difficult to use as collateral. Tokenization doesn’t solve that problem. This reduces demand for the asset.

Capital efficiency also improves significantly for liquid assets. Tokenized liquid instruments can potentially be rehypothecated, fractionally deployed and programmatically allocated in real time. Capital moves faster across the system. But tokenization doesn’t produce continuous markets for illiquid assets. 

Reducing risk through clarity

Dollars, government bonds and large corporate debt have well-established legal status, issuer accountability and regulatory frameworks. Tokenization can fit within existing financial law, making institutional adoption far more straightforward.

It’s harder for NFTs. Questions about ownership, custody, enforceability and investor protection can outweigh technical benefits. In practice, these uncertainties raise risk rather than reduce it. It’s natural for large, institutional tokenization endeavours to focus on liquid assets first. 

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The future of tokenization will be defined by assets that are economically central. Obviously, the crypto sector’s early experiments with NFTs were necessary and understandable. It was difficult for NFTs to succeed in the long term. They were focused on the wrong type of asset.

Stablecoins proved this by upgrading the most liquid asset in the world. Tokenized government bonds and equities are the logical next step. This is how blockchains move from experimental technology to foundational financial infrastructure.

Opinion by: Sebastián Serrano, founder and CEO of Ripio.