TLDR:

• Kalshi is facing a $54 million class-action lawsuit over its refusal to pay out on the Khamenei market.
  
• Plaintiffs argue Kalshi’s death carveout was applied after Khamenei’s death, not before trading began.
  
• Kalshi claims its rules were always clear and that it reimbursed all fees and net losses to affected users.
  
• The lawsuit could set a major legal precedent for how prediction markets handle politically sensitive events.

Kalshi, a prominent prediction market platform, is now at the center of a federal class-action lawsuit. Plaintiffs allege the company refused to pay approximately $54 million to users.

These users had bet that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would leave office before March 1. Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on Saturday.

The lawsuit was filed Thursday in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California.

Plaintiffs Allege Kalshi Invoked Death Clause After the Fact

The lawsuit claims Kalshi did not apply its “death carveout” rule until after Khamenei was killed. According to plaintiffs, the company used this provision to avoid honoring payouts. They argue this move was both “deceptive” and “predatory” toward its own users.

Users say the market’s language was “clear, unambiguous and binary” from the start. The terms stated Khamenei could leave office for any reason, including death. Many bettors considered his death the most realistic outcome, given the military situation.

The lawsuit also notes that Kalshi continued accepting trades as reports of Khamenei’s death began to surface. Plaintiffs argue this further damaged users who were unaware the rules would later shift. This timing has become a central point of the legal dispute.

The complaint further states that “consumers understood that the most likely — and in many cases the only realistic — mechanism” for Khamenei leaving office was death.

It also asserts that “defendants understood this as well.” With a U.S. naval presence near Iran and conflict widely anticipated, the lawsuit argues users placed bets with that reality fully in mind.

Kalshi Disputes Claims, Says Rules Were Always Clear

Kalshi responded to the lawsuit with a firm denial of any wrongdoing. A company spokesperson stated the platform had “included every precaution to make sure people could not trade on the outcome of death.” According to Kalshi, the rules were consistent and transparent from the beginning.

The spokesperson added that Kalshi reimbursed all fees and net losses directly out of pocket. “We even reimbursed all fees and net losses out of pocket — to the tune of millions of dollars — to make sure not a single person lost money on this market,” the spokesperson said. The company maintains no customer suffered a financial loss.

Kalshi further insisted that it followed its own established guidelines throughout the process. The platform argues the death carveout was always part of its market structure. It was not, the company says, introduced after the fact.

Prediction markets have grown sharply in popularity since the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Platforms like Kalshi allow users to trade yes-or-no contracts on real-world events.

These markets accurately predicted Donald Trump’s election victory ahead of traditional polling methods. The outcome of this lawsuit may shape how such platforms handle sensitive, high-stakes markets going forward.

[PRESS RELEASE – Duabu, United Arab Emirates, March 8th, 2026]

As aviation disruptions continue in the Gulf region following reports of a drone strike near Dubai International Airport, global crypto platform 1win has organized a private evacuation operation for its VIP clients currently in the United Arab Emirates.

“Safety first,” the Owner of 1win commented on X. “When airports in Dubai closed, and many were stranded, not knowing how to get out, in less than a day, we organized the evacuation of our VIP clients on all private jets, so they could return home safely without waiting for the situation to stabilize. We are here to support you in any situation.”

Commercial aviation in the region has been heavily disrupted. The airline Emirates temporarily suspended flights to and from Dubai International Airport, urging passengers not to travel to the airport until the security situation stabilizes. Several international routes have also been cancelled in the coming weeks as airlines reassess operational risks.

To provide additional flexibility for VIP clients who were unable or unwilling to rely on disrupted commercial flights, 1win coordinated private aviation options with several international charter operators. The initiative focused on offering direct departures from airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi to destinations across Latin America, Asia, and the CIS region.

Industry reports indicate that demand for business aviation in the UAE has surged sharply as travelers seek alternatives to disrupted commercial flights. Several aviation outlets and international media reported a significant spike in private jet charters and sharply rising prices for departures from Dubai, reflecting the growing demand for alternative travel options during the crisis.

1win’s charter program remains ongoing, with additional aircraft arranged depending on client travel needs.

About 1win

Founded in 2016, 1win is a crypto platform in the global gaming industry. Operating across Asia, Latin America, and Africa, 1win offers a wide range of services adapted to regional audiences. In 2024, 1win partnered with actor Johnny Sins as its brand ambassador. In 2025, MMA legend Jon Jones joined 1win as its global ambassador. American professional wrestler and mixed martial artist, Gable Steveson, stepped into the 1win global ambassador team earlier this year.

PI has erased much of the recent gains, but still trades around $0.20.

Bitcoin’s underwhelming price moves over the weekend continued as the asset dipped below $67,000 earlier today for the first time since Tuesday.

Most altcoins are also in the red today, with ETH slipping further away from the coveted $2,000 level, while ADA and XMR are down by over 2%. ZEC and PI have dumped the most daily.

BTC Fights for $67K

Last weekend brought intense volatility for the crypto markets after the US and Israel attacked Iran. BTC dropped immediately from $67,000 to $63,000 but rebounded within the day to $68,000 after reports that the Iranian Supreme Leader was killed during the attacks.

The gains continued by the middle of the business week when bitcoin peaked at $74,000, a level not seen in a month. However, the bears stepped up at this moment and didn’t allow for any further increases.

Just the opposite; BTC started to lose value but dumped the most on Friday after a weak US jobs report and Trump’s latest threats and remarks on Iran and Cuba. It slipped further on Sunday, dipping to $66,600, which became its lowest level since Tuesday. However, it reacted well and now trades almost a grand higher.

As of now, BTC’s market cap has settled at $1.350 trillion, while its dominance over the alts sits quietly at 56.6% on CG.

PI Nosedives

Pi Network’s native token defied the overall market correction in the past few days, skyrocketing to a three-month peak of over $0.23 yesterday. However, it failed there, and the subsequent rejection has pushed it south hard to $0.20 as of press time. ZEC follows suit in terms of daily losses and now struggles below $200.

Most larger-cap alts are also in the red, but in a less painful manner. ETH has decisively broken below the $2,000 level after another minor decline, while BNB is down to $620. SOL, XRP, ADA, XMR, and LINK are also down today.

The total crypto market cap has shed around $30 billion daily and is below $2.4 trillion as of now on CG.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin faced pressure as rising oil prices and weak US data sparked risk-off sentiment and drove investors to gold.

• A redemption spike in private credit funds from BlackRock and Blackstone signaled growing anxiety among retail investors.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a 7% correction between Thursday and Friday following a failed attempt to reclaim the $74,000 level. The pullback tracked weak US macroeconomic data and a spike in oil prices as the US and Israel-Iran war entered its seventh day. Traders now question whether Bitcoin can maintain support above $65,000.

Typically, deteriorating economic conditions pave the way for monetary stimulus, often boosting the stock market in anticipation of increased liquidity. However, this cycle saw the S&P 500 retreat as a generalized risk-off sentiment erased all of Bitcoin’s gains from Wednesday. 

US retail sales fell 0.2% in January compared to the previous month, while the US economy shed 92,000 jobs in February. Despite the cooling labor market, investors lack confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further, as rising energy costs typically generate inflationary pressure. 

US Treasury markets currently price a 78% probability that interest rates will remain steady between 3.5% and 3.75% through late April. A flight to safety pattern emerged as gold surged while the Russell 2000 Small Capitalization index hit a two-month low. Bitcoin’s drop below $85,000 in late January hindered its reputation as an uncorrelated asset, especially as silver rose to become the second most valuable asset.

Traders also fear a wave of corporate layoffs driven by artificial intelligence automation. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid noted that AI is increasingly filling roles that once required manual labor. Schmid added that “older Americans are retiring,” causing a real-time structural change in the labor market, according to Yahoo Finance.

War and credit strain weigh on Bitcoin’s outlook

A prolonged war suggests increased US government spending, reducing the fiscal capacity for monetary stimulus aimed at economic expansion. Investors increasingly fear rising logistics costs beyond the commodities sector. Shipping giant Maersk announced on Friday the temporary suspension of two routes connecting the Middle East to Asia and Europe.

Bitcoin’s retest of the $68,000 level on Friday indicates that technical resistance levels identified by analysts may be secondary to geopolitical events impacting the oil and energy industries and, by extension, global growth prospects. The current weakness in risk assets appears to be a reflection of poor macroeconomic visibility rather than a structural collapse.

Related: Lyn Alden tips Bitcoin outperforming gold over next ‘two to three years’

A potential deterioration in trader expectations could originate within the US private credit market. BlackRock reportedly limited withdrawals from one of its largest credit funds following a spike in redemption requests, according to a Bloomberg report on Friday. Earlier this week, Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund fulfilled requests to tender a record 7.9% of shares, signaling rising retail anxiety.

Currently, the 3% option-adjusted spread for riskier firms is hovering within the normal range seen over the last six months. Periods of significant economic turmoil typically push this indicator above 5.0%, a level last seen in March 2023. As a result, there is no clear sign that Bitcoin will break below $65,000, even with the ongoing uncertainty surrounding global economic growth.