BitMart is facing a new insolvency allegation after an OpenGradient co-founder said his market-making team could no longer withdraw funds locked on the exchange.

Market maker questions BitMart’s solvency

Matthew, a co-founder of decentralized AI network OpenGradient, said his market-making team has funds trapped on BitMart and questioned whether the exchange remains solvent.

According to Matthew, the team cannot withdraw its assets from the centralized trading platform. He also alleged that BitMart continued encouraging token holders to lock funds on the exchange about one week before halting the related services.

Matthew described the timing as “shocking” and claimed the lockup campaign may have been intended to bring additional liquidity onto the platform. BitMart had not issued a direct response to his allegations at the time of writing.

The claims have not been independently verified, and Matthew did not disclose the value or type of assets held by the market maker. There is currently no confirmed evidence establishing that BitMart is insolvent.

However, the complaint adds to mounting questions about the exchange’s ability to process withdrawals during its wind-down.

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Withdrawal complaints follow BitMart shutdown

BitMart began a phased shutdown of its global exchange on July 26. It stopped accepting new registrations, crypto and fiat deposits, and new spot orders, while futures accounts entered reduce-only mode.

All spot, futures and other trading services are scheduled to end at 01:00 UTC on Aug. 26. BitMart plans to terminate its trading-platform operations on Jan. 31, 2027.

The exchange says withdrawals remain available. However, requests may undergo identity checks, source-of-funds reviews, wallet-ownership verification, sanctions screening and other security procedures.

BitMart recommended that customers submit withdrawal requests before 05:00 UTC on Aug. 26. Requests submitted later will move into a separate process that the company has yet to detail fully.

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Scandic Coin has also reported delayed withdrawals. The project said requests involving approximately 21,898 USDT, 926,635 SNC and another 256 USDT remained unprocessed after being submitted on July 26.

The project did not state that BitMart was insolvent but called on the exchange to provide verifiable evidence that it had enough liquidity to meet its obligations.

BitMart founder denies misusing customer funds

BitMart founder Sheldon Xia responded to broader concerns on Aug. 8, saying the exchange had “not run away” and “will not run away.”

Xia said the company’s core team was conducting an asset inventory, consolidating assets and maintaining its systems. He promised that formal announcements would follow but did not provide reserve figures, withdrawal-processing data or a repayment timetable.

BitMart said in May that it was preparing to publish proof of reserves after earlier withdrawal complaints. That report has not been released.

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Proof-of-reserves disclosures can help verify that exchanges control assets corresponding to customer balances. However, they do not establish solvency unless users can also assess the company’s liabilities and off-chain obligations.

The case resembles recent liquidity concerns involving AscendEX, where delayed withdrawals and apparently low hot-wallet balances preceded the exchange’s shutdown. BitMart has not acknowledged any asset shortfall.

US users face additional restrictions

BitMart stopped registering new US customers in May 2022, but the exchange said some older accounts could still be linked to US residents.

The company instructed affected US users to close positions, redeem assets and withdraw their remaining crypto by Aug. 8 at 23:59 UTC. It warned that accounts could face further restrictions after the deadline and that additional compliance reviews might be required.

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For users unable to withdraw, the immediate questions are whether BitMart can publish verifiable asset and liability data and provide a clear processing schedule. Until then, the insolvency allegation remains unproven, while reports of frozen funds continue to test the exchange’s claim that its wind-down is orderly.

Bitcoin dipped below $64,500 on Monday after Wall Street’s open, tracking a broader risk-off mood tied to fresh uncertainty around US-Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz. While crude prices moved higher, equities failed to hold their early direction, and BTC’s early weakness underscored how quickly macro headlines can dominate crypto price action.

At the same time, market attention is being split between geopolitics and FX—particularly the Japanese yen. The yen continued to weaken against the US dollar even after a rare joint Japan-US intervention, putting additional pressure on liquidity-sensitive assets like bitcoin.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin slid to around $64,447 on Bitstamp shortly after the US open, reflecting risk-off positioning alongside US stocks.
• Iran’s deputy speaker, Ali Nikzad, said reopening the Strait of Hormuz has “no military solution,” adding to uncertainty for energy markets.
• USD/JPY pushed toward 160 in early Asia trading, as the yen remained under pressure after the Japan-US FX intervention.
• On-chain and derivatives signals show stronger institutional demand, but analytics firms describe spot-market recovery momentum as still not fully confirmed.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged net inflows of $865.3 million last week, yet analysts still characterize the rebound as tentative.

Geopolitical uncertainty and macro spillover into BTC

According to TradingView data cited in the report, BTC/USD touched $64,447 on Bitstamp—its lowest level since Friday—before recovering modestly. The move closely followed the pattern in US equities, which initially fell as traders reassessed the likelihood that the Strait of Hormuz oil route would reopen.

Iranian officials added to that caution. Addressing the Islamic Consultative Assembly, deputy speaker Ali Nikzad reportedly said that the “opening of the Strait of Hormuz has no military solution,” a statement quoted by Al Jazeera and other outlets.

Energy markets reflected the same tension. US WTI crude oil was up nearly 5% to about $80.90 per barrel at the time of writing, even as the S&P 500 managed to turn green after dipping—still below Friday’s all-time highs. For bitcoin, the takeaway is less about oil’s direction alone and more about how quickly broader macro uncertainty is feeding into risk appetite.

Yen weakness after Japan-US FX action raises liquidity questions

Beyond geopolitics, the yen remained a focal point for markets. The Japanese currency continued to slide against the US dollar despite a rare joint intervention by Japan and the United States earlier, with USD/JPY reaching 159 on Monday and edging toward the 160 threshold during the first Asia session.

Economist Mohamed El-Erian warned that Japan may need stronger or more decisive policy follow-through for the intervention to translate into sustained FX stabilization. On X, he wrote that the yen has been weakening gradually since the joint Japan-US FX intervention, calling it a reminder that correcting a “mispricing” depends on getting the policy mix right—and that delays could make the intervention’s goal “more elusive.”

For crypto traders, this matters because FX stress can alter global liquidity conditions and risk positioning. When the yen weakens rapidly, it can coincide with shifts in cross-asset funding and hedging behavior—dynamics that often spill into high-beta markets.

Institutional inflows support the backdrop, but analysts see uneven momentum

While bitcoin’s price action looked shaky, institutional and on-chain data offered a more constructive—though not fully decisive—picture. Glassnode’s latest Market Pulse update pointed to what it described as improving components that typically precede more sustainable uptrends, but it also highlighted a key missing piece: the overall momentum in the spot market.

Glassnode said momentum had returned toward neutral and that spot taker buying had accelerated sharply. However, it noted that centralized exchange turnover remained subdued. In the report, the firm interpreted the gap between stronger spot absorption and weaker exchange activity as indicative of demand improving within a broader consolidation environment rather than a broad-based speculative expansion.

ETFs and derivatives hint at accumulation—yet “tentative” remains the watchword

Institutional flows were among the clearest positives in the week’s data. The report cited Farside Investors data showing that US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $865.3 million last week. Such inflows can matter because they represent steady demand from traditional capital channels, often helping stabilize sentiment during choppy periods.

On the derivatives side, CryptoQuant data referenced in the report indicated that hedge funds had flipped to net long CME bitcoin futures. The CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, characterized the shift as “rare,” arguing that the typical positioning behavior had structurally favored being short via basis trades—an approach he said cannot easily be carried into net long positions. In his framing, hedge funds betting on upside suggests more conviction than simple hedging.

Still, the overall conclusion from the analytics commentary is that bitcoin’s rebound attempts are not fully “locked in.” The report described the comeback as “tentative,” with Glassnode’s divergence between accelerating spot taker buying and subdued exchange turnover serving as a caution signal. In other words: inflows may be arriving, but market breadth and turnover are not yet confirming a full expansion cycle.

Going forward, traders are likely to keep a close eye on whether macro uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz continues to dominate price action, and whether FX conditions—especially USD/JPY—stabilize or deteriorate further. On the crypto side, the next test is whether ETF-led demand and derivatives positioning can translate into stronger spot-market momentum, rather than staying confined to consolidation.

SINGAPORE, CoinFerenceX, the Web3 conference series known for curating high-signal gatherings of founders, investors, and builders, today announced it has combined forces with The Best Event, the events production group behind 80+ live experiences across 10+ global cities, to launch CoinFerenceX The Best Event Singapore, the next tier of the world’s first Decentralised Summit. The event will take place 5-6 October 2026 at Gardens by the Bay, positioning it as a leading alternative during Singapore’s Token2049 and Asia Crypto Week.

The partnership pairs CoinFerenceX’s content curation and community depth with The Best Event’s large-scale production and sponsor-activation track record, creating what the two companies describe as “the event nobody else can build.”

What sets the conference apart is its decentralized summit model: a 2 day event shaped by the industry rather than dictated by an organizer. Where traditional conferences sell booths and speaking slots, CoinFerenceX and The Best Event will invite the founders, funds and ecosystem leaders who show up to help shape the agenda itself, deciding which conversations matter and which builders take the stage. While the organizers handle the production and logistics, the direction of the summit is set by the Web3 players with real skin in the game. It’s a gathering built by the people driving the ecosystem forward, for the people driving it forward.

The Best Event brings a track record of 80+ delivered events, a presence in more than 10 global cities, over 50 million annual organic impressions, and north of 1 billion in social reach. The group’s attendance has grown from 35,000 in 2025 to a projected 70,000 in 2026. Its sponsor case studies point to concrete ROI, including one partner that turned a $50,000 investment into $1 million raised, another that saw a $50,000 spend convert into $1 million in ROI, and a third that converted two leads into a $400,000 deal.

At CoinFerenceX, partners help shape the agenda itself rather than simply buying booth space and a speaking slot. CoinFerenceX’s community includes 7,500+ curated attendees from more than 70 countries, over 500 ecosystem and media partners, and more than 300 VCs and investment funds. Roughly 60% of its attendees are C-level executives or founders, and independent feedback shows 94% of past partners say they would return, with 89% rating CoinFerenceX among the top 25% of Web3 events globally.

The combined summit is designed around four experience tracks:

• The Leaders Summit: an invite-only, C-level gathering where governance decisions and strategic partnerships take shape.
• Protocol Deep Dives: technical workshops where protocols demonstrate what they are actually shipping.
• The Founders’ Den: a venue for early-stage builders to pitch directly to 200+ VCs and investors.
• The Innovation Showcase: live product demos from established players and emerging protocols alike.

Early figures for the Singapore edition point to more than 4,000 curated attendees, 500+ VCs and investors, 400+ ecosystem and media partners, 85+ C-level speakers, and more than 8,000 total event registrations. As with prior CoinFerenceX editions, roughly 60% of attendees are expected to be C-level executives or founders.

Organizers say the agenda will be co-created by founders and ecosystem leaders with skin in the game, focused on sessions that deliver actionable insight or substantive content over celebrity keynotes.

“We’re incredibly excited for this edition, it’s bigger, sharper and more ambitious than anything we’ve done before. With the whole industry in Singapore that week, we’ve curated a stage and an audience that turns that energy into real conversations and real deals. This is CoinFerenceX The Best Event at its strongest,” shared Prince Gupta, Co-Founder of CoinFerenceX

Tobias Bauer, Co-Founder of The Best Event, added, “This partnership is the best of both worlds: CoinFerenceX’s curated speaker line-ups meet The Best Event’s scale of 50,000 attendees a year, the largest Web3 event series globally. Together we’re bringing one of the biggest two-day conferences to Singapore, our home market, with frontier thought leadership and production quality unlike anything else in the space.”

Event Details

• Event: CoinFerenceX The Best Event Singapore
• Dates: 5-6 October 2026
• Venue: Gardens by the Bay, Singapore
• Tickets & partner applications:coinferencex.com/singapore

About CoinFerenceX

CoinFerenceX is a global decentralized Web3 summit connecting founders, investors, blockchain companies, developers, and industry leaders to accelerate innovation and collaboration in the digital economy. Through its ecosystem-driven approach, CoinFerenceX creates a platform for meaningful networking, knowledge exchange, startup opportunities, and strategic partnerships shaping the future of Web3. The summit brings together the brightest minds across blockchain, AI, DeFi, gaming, and emerging technologies to explore industry trends, showcase groundbreaking solutions, and build the next generation of decentralized ecosystems.

About The Best Event

TBE is the events arm of TBV, an early-stage venture capital fund backing web2.5 and web3 startups across Southeast Asia and North America. TBE curates high-caliber gatherings that anchor the biggest weeks in web3, with a track record of 80+ delivered events across 10+ global cities. Every event is built around one goal: putting the right founders, funds, and operators in the same room so real deals and partnerships can happen. That network runs deep, backed by a 10,000+ strong Telegram community and a social following north of 100,000.

Media Contact

Anmol Malviya

Head of PR

CoinFerenceX

media@coinferencex.com

XRP faces renewed downside pressure as Polymarket traders assign strong odds to the token trading near the $1 level. The shift follows the delay of the CLARITY Act vote until September. Meanwhile, short-term markets show limited strength, while longer-term contracts signal weaker expectations for a major XRP recovery.

XRP Price Holds Near The $1 Support

Polymarket data shows a 71% probability that XRP will reach $1 on August 10. Another contract gives XRP a 99% chance of reaching the $1 to $1.10 range. However, the same market assigns only a 1% probability to the $0.90 to $1 range.

Separate contracts also show limited upside for XRP during the session. The token has a 28% probability of reaching $1.05, while another contract gives $1 a 5% probability. Therefore, current market activity places greater attention on the $1 area than higher price levels.

Short-term contracts remain stronger than daily and four-hour projections. Polymarket gives XRP a 96% chance of rising during the next hour, while 15-minute odds stand at 76%. However, five-minute odds fall to 50%, while daily and four-hour markets show only 10% and 7% chances.

XRP Faces Wider Weekly Price Pressure

Polymarket’s weekly contracts also show mixed expectations for XRP between August 10 and August 16. One contract assigns a 50% probability that XRP will not reach $0.90 during that period. Another standalone contract gives a 99% probability that XRP will reach $1.70.

These contracts measure separate price outcomes, so their probabilities do not represent a single price forecast. However, the data shows a wide range of possible outcomes as traders assess XRP’s near-term direction. At the same time, longer-term contracts show limited expectations for a new record high.

Polymarket places the probability of XRP reaching an all-time high by December 2026 at 5%. The probability for XRP reaching a record high by the end of September stands at 1%. Therefore, the market data points to restrained expectations despite possible short-term moves.

Clarity Act Delay Adds Pressure To XRP

The delayed CLARITY Act vote has added another source of uncertainty for XRP and the wider crypto market. Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed a cloture motion on the motion to proceed. The Senate now plans to consider the cloture vote on September 15 after the August recess.

The bill still faces disagreements over several provisions before lawmakers can advance it. Senators have raised concerns about stablecoin rules and provisions involving stablecoin yields. Meanwhile, law enforcement groups and prosecutors have objected to protections covering non-custodial blockchain developers.

The legislative outcome could influence XRP’s next major price move because the bill affects the broader digital asset framework. CoinGape analysis identifies $1.08 and $1.12 as key resistance areas for XRP. A stronger trading volume could push XRP toward $1.18, while a failed bill could send XRP back toward $1 and $0.95.

BlackRock is expanding its Canada-listed ETF lineup with two new iShares products that begin trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) this week. The most notable addition blends traditional equities with a small, fixed allocation to Bitcoin exposure.

Both funds are managed by BlackRock Asset Management Canada under the RBC iShares alliance. They are designed for investors seeking diversified market exposure—either broadly outside North America, or a balanced mix that includes a Bitcoin sleeve.

Key takeaways

• BlackRock Canada launched two TSX-listed iShares ETFs: IBQT (equities plus a 3% Bitcoin allocation) and XINT (international equity exposure).
• IBQT’s structure targets a diversified equity core: 97% in equities via iShares ETFs, alongside 3% Bitcoin exposure via BlackRock’s Canadian iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT).
• XINT provides broad non-North America coverage: it tracks the MSCI ACWI ex North America IMI Index, spanning more than 5,000 companies across over 40 markets.
• BlackRock positions iShares as the platform: both funds rely primarily on other iShares ETFs rather than direct stock holdings.
• BlackRock’s US Bitcoin ETF scale remains a reference point: CoinMarketCap data shows its US-listed iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) holds about $47.9 billion in assets under management.

What BlackRock launched on the TSX

On Monday, BlackRock Canada introduced two ETFs on the Toronto Stock Exchange: the iShares Equity + Bitcoin ETF Portfolio (IBQT) and the iShares Core MSCI All-International Equity Index ETF (XINT).

While both funds sit under the iShares brand and share a common management setup, they differ sharply in how they aim to deliver exposure. IBQT adds a defined Bitcoin component to an otherwise equity-focused portfolio, while XINT is a more traditional, index-tracking international equity fund.

IBQT: a “core equities + 3% Bitcoin” portfolio

The iShares Equity + Bitcoin ETF Portfolio (IBQT) is designed around a straightforward allocation framework. The fund allocates 97% of its portfolio to a mix of equities across Canada, the United States, international markets, and emerging markets. The remaining 3% is allocated to Bitcoin exposure through BlackRock’s Canadian iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), which trades on Cboe Canada.

According to the launch details, IBQT does not seek to hold individual stocks directly. Instead, it primarily invests in other iShares ETFs to achieve both its diversified equity exposure and its Bitcoin sleeve.

This design choice matters for investors thinking about implementation. A fund-of-funds approach can make it easier to access multiple exposures within a single product, rather than requiring investors to combine separate equity and Bitcoin funds themselves—though investors will still want to review the underlying holdings and the total costs across the layered structure.

XINT: broad international equities outside North America

The second product, iShares Core MSCI All-International Equity Index ETF (XINT), is more conventional in its index approach. The ETF tracks the MSCI ACWI ex North America IMI Index.

Based on the provided index description, XINT offers exposure to more than 5,000 companies spread across over 40 developed and emerging markets, covering regions outside both Canada and the United States.

For investors who already hold North American equities and want a non-overlapping allocation, XINT’s benchmark selection is intended to fill that gap. By tracking a widely diversified index outside North America, it also reduces the need to make region-by-region allocation decisions, at least at the index construction level.

Why this matters for Canadian ETF investors

BlackRock’s move reflects a broader shift in how crypto exposure is being packaged for mainstream portfolios—often in small, rules-based allocations rather than all-in constructions. IBQT’s fixed 3% Bitcoin allocation is a concrete example of that approach: it aims to keep the portfolio heavily equity-oriented while adding a measured amount of BTC-linked exposure.

At the same time, BlackRock is keeping the rest of the implementation familiar. Both funds are described as relying primarily on iShares ETFs, which signals that BlackRock is leveraging its existing ETF ecosystem to deliver new outcomes—rather than creating a wholly separate investment framework for crypto-linked products in Canada.

BlackRock said its iShares business managed approximately $6.2 trillion in assets across more than 1,700 ETFs as of June 30. That scale can be relevant for Canadian investors because it suggests ongoing operational capacity and product development across the iShares range, including the integration of new crypto components into established ETF formats.

Bitcoin ETF momentum remains a key backdrop

The launch of IBQT also lands against ongoing momentum in BlackRock’s US Bitcoin ETF business. The US-listed iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is described as the largest US spot Bitcoin ETF by assets under management, with about $47.9 billion in AUM, according to CoinMarketCap.

While IBQT is a Canada-focused product and XINT is an equities-only index fund, BlackRock’s shared branding and ETF infrastructure underscore a key reality: the firm’s crypto products are increasingly becoming part of a broader ETF platform strategy, rather than operating as isolated experiments.

Going forward, investors should watch how IBQT’s trading and flows develop on the TSX, including whether the “small fixed Bitcoin sleeve” format draws demand from advisors and retail investors seeking easier portfolio integration. It will also be important to track how regulators and market participants continue to treat crypto-linked exchange-traded products in Canada, since that environment will shape how quickly similar portfolio-style offerings spread.

The U.S. Senate is set to take up the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act again after a month-long recess, with Majority Leader John Thune filing a cloture motion to move the bill toward a floor vote. The procedural step, reported by the Senate Daily Press, effectively ends speculation that lawmakers might bring the measure forward before September despite it already clearing the House more than a year ago.

If the bill reaches the chamber, the Senate will need a 60-vote threshold to advance CLARITY, meaning bipartisan support remains crucial. The push into mid-September is also landing with less time to build momentum as the 2026 midterm elections approach, a timing problem that has amplified frustration among crypto industry leaders and lawmakers who have backed the legislation.

Key takeaways

• Majority Leader John Thune filed a cloture motion for the CLARITY Act, setting the stage for consideration when the Senate reconvenes in mid-September.
• Passing CLARITY in the Senate would require 60 votes, leaving little room for partisan friction ahead of the 2026 midterms.
• Industry figures and crypto policy advocates called the delay disappointing, while urging lawmakers to “finish the job” in September.
• Bipartisan negotiations reportedly continued on broader crypto market-structure issues, but Senate action has not yet translated into CLARITY scheduling.
• Despite congressional delays, prediction market contracts still reflect meaningful odds that CLARITY could move toward passage in 2026, though timing uncertainty remains high.

Cloture filed as Senate delays become the new baseline

According to reporting cited by Cointelegraph, Thune’s cloture filing is intended to bring CLARITY to the Senate floor for consideration. That matters because cloture is a key procedural tool used to limit extended debate and overcome the likelihood of a filibuster-like stall—an especially relevant hurdle for legislation that relies on cross-party alignment.

CLARITY’s track record has made the delay feel more consequential to supporters. The bill already passed the House, so the Senate is effectively deciding whether to align with that earlier outcome. With the Senate now targeting mid-September, the question for investors, builders, and market participants is less whether the bill is “alive,” and more how quickly it can become predictable regulatory infrastructure—or whether uncertainty drags on.

As the clock tightens, the September timetable arrives with roughly 50 days before the 2026 midterm elections, a window that critics say makes legislative compromise harder to achieve.

Lawmakers and executives push back on the slowdown

Frustration has surfaced publicly from both lawmakers and industry leaders after the Senate did not schedule a vote before its recess. Senator Cynthia Lummis, referenced in the Senate reporting cycle, said she was “frustrated” that CLARITY had not been placed on the calendar and added that her work with colleagues would continue. Her statement is linked through her post on X: Sen. Lummis’ remarks.

On the industry side, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Coinbase chief policy officer Faryar Shirzad also criticized the lack of immediate Senate scheduling, while framing September as the moment to complete the legislative path. Armstrong’s comment is linked at this X post, and Shirzad’s “finish the job” framing appears in this X post.

Not all reactions centered on panic. Bitmine Chair Tom Lee, in a weekly report, suggested that broader market attention—such as recent softer inflation and jobs data—has dominated near-term financial headlines more than CLARITY’s status. The implication for market participants is that regulatory risk may remain real without necessarily driving immediate price action day-to-day, especially when macro catalysts are competing for attention.

Why ethics and stablecoin rules keep resurfacing

The House-passed momentum has not translated cleanly into Senate action, in part because the legislative effort sits alongside other disputes in the broader crypto market-structure debate. The article’s background indicates that Senate lawmakers did not announce solutions in response to Democrats pressing for stricter ethics provisions—particularly rules aimed at conflicts tied to U.S. President Donald Trump’s crypto investments, including the entities and projects associated with World Liberty Financial and a memecoin launched days before he took office.

Those ethics concerns highlight a recurring tension in crypto policy: even when the industry broadly supports regulatory clarity, the political conditions needed to reach final passage can depend on unrelated governance questions. In practice, that means CLARITY may be delayed not because of technical disagreements about token regulation, but because of the Senate’s broader tradeoffs on transparency and oversight.

At the same time, some banking advocates have raised questions about how CLARITY would intersect with stablecoin-linked interest mechanics. A Wall Street Journal editorial board op-ed referenced before Thune’s cloture motion argued that, under CLARITY, smaller banks would miss out on opportunities because they rely on interest payments to attract deposits. The editorial board’s critique appears in this Wall Street Journal op-ed.

“The Clarity Act can serve a useful purpose with some language changes. The crypto industry and its friends in Washington portray themselves as defenders of free markets. What they really want is to be quasi-banks without abiding by the same regulations.”

The policy implication is straightforward: debates about who can earn yield, and on what terms, can influence whether financial institutions see incentives to participate. That in turn affects how quickly mainstream infrastructure can integrate with stablecoins and related services.

Prediction markets keep odds alive, but timing is still a gamble

Even as CLARITY’s Senate schedule slips, prediction market platforms continue to offer contracts reflecting expectations that the bill could still clear major milestones within the 2026 calendar year—though the probabilities remain uncertain.

On Kalshi, an event contract that drew $1.23 million in wagers gave users an 88% chance that the Senate would vote on the CLARITY Act before Oct. 1. A related market on Polymarket, which received over $5.79 million in total wagers, showed a 26% chance that the bill would be signed into law in 2026. Both contracts are linked in the source coverage: Kalshi’s CLARITY vote contract and Polymarket’s 2026 signature contract.

Those numbers also reflect an important procedural reality. If CLARITY passes the Senate, it would likely need to return to the House for another vote before it can move to the president for signing. That extra step can be the difference between a clean legislative finish and another round of delay—especially if lawmakers try to adjust language during Senate consideration.

For traders and market participants using these markets as a sentiment proxy, the key watch item isn’t only “pass or fail,” but whether the timeline compresses the revision process enough to avoid a late-year procedural bottleneck.

As the Senate reconvenes in mid-September, the next signals to monitor are whether the cloture motion results in a scheduled floor vote and whether negotiations narrow the gap on unresolved issues—particularly ethics and stablecoin-related provisions—before midterm politics starts to dominate lawmakers’ agendas.