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Crypto World

CME is letting traders bet on bitcoin volatility, not price, and two firms have already placed bets

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Bitcoin's price discovery is moving to Chicago

CME’s bitcoin volatility index futures began trading last week, offering investors a new way to trade and hedge price volatility. DV Chain and Monarq Asset Management executed the first block trades, kicking off trading in the contracts.

These volatility contracts track the CME CF Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVX), which represents the market’s expectations for bitcoin volatility over four weeks. Their debut allows traders to take positions directly on expected price turbulence rather than just price direction.

That distinction matters because most derivatives, including futures, perpetual futures and options, require a view on where price is going. Volatility futures eliminate that complexity, letting traders express a view purely on how BTC will move in either direction.

That opens the door to a new set of hedging and portfolio strategies that were previously difficult to execute on regulated venues. Think of positioning for how much bitcoin might move around events like this week’s U.S. inflation data – traders can go long or short volatility depending on their outlook.

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Shiliang Tang, CEO of Monarq, called the launch a positive step in broadening regulated volatility offerings.

“As bitcoin continues to mature into a more mainstream institutional asset class, the demand for sophisticated risk management instruments grows alongside it. Robust tools like CME Group Bitcoin Volatility futures are exactly what investors need to accurately express their market viewpoints and efficiently hedge their portfolios within a secure, transparent framework,” he said in the press announcement.

Monarq Asset Management is a institutional-focused quantitative and systematic digital asset investment firm managed by former executives from firms such as LedgerPrime, Tower Research, and BlockTower Capital. DV Chain is a liquidity and market-making service provider.

The launch of volatility futures expands CME’s existing product suite comprising bitcoin and ether standard and micro futures and options contracts. The platform’s crypto derivatives business has reached roughly 266,900 contracts year-to-date, up 38% year-on-year, while average daily open interest stands at roughly 274,500 contracts, up 18%.

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Arthur Hayes sells WLD after Maelstrom AI IPO pitch

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Crypto Breaking News

Maelstrom co-founder Arthur Hayes liquidated his Worldcoin (WLD) holdings just days after the research outfit described WLD as one of the cleanest proxies for the AI investment wave. The move underscores how public bets on AI narratives can rise and fall quickly, even for assets a prominent investor once touted as a sure-fire proxy.

Hayes took to X to critique a chart of the SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual futures contract, saying the chart was moving in the wrong direction. His post concluded with a blunt disclosure: “Dumped WLD. I’m out. See y’all at the clerb.” The timing follows Maelstrom’s characterization of Worldcoin as an attractive entry point into the AI-IPO theme and a note that helped spur a brief rally for the token.

It was only a few days earlier that Maelstrom researcher Lukas Ruppert described Worldcoin as an “overlooked” bet on “AI mega IPOs,” predicting WLD could reach $5 by August. The note sparked a short-lived advance, sending WLD above the $0.60 level on Friday before retreating toward the $0.40 area by Sunday as Hayes publicly exited the position to his roughly 800,000 followers on X.

Hayes’s stance on Worldcoin had previously been aligned with a broader AI-forward thesis—one that tied multiple token bets to the idea of a wave of AI IPOs and platform-scale adoption. Yet the latest exit came even as Hayes had signaled a willingness to hold WLD through the SpaceX IPO on Nasdaq, which had been anticipated to launch the following Friday, drawing scrutiny from some observers who cautioned about timing and concentration risk.

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Key takeaways

  • Arthur Hayes liquidated Worldcoin (WLD) holdings days after Maelstrom framed WLD as a clean proxy for AI IPOs, signaling a pivot away from a narrative he helped amplify.
  • WLD’s price action reflected the churn around AI-narrative assets: a rally to about $0.60 followed by a retreat to roughly $0.40 as the exit news circulated.
  • Hayes has a documented history of shifting positions on high-profile bets—ranging from Worldcoin to Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Zcash (ZEC)—even after initially promoting a bullish thesis.
  • The broader AI-IPO theme remains in play, but investors should weigh the risks of relying on single-asset proxies and the potential for rapid reversals when public bets shift.

From AI megabets to ongoing pivots: Hayes’s track record in focus

The sequence around Worldcoin sits within a larger pattern that crypto markets frequently witness: a bold call tied to a transformative technology, followed by quick re-evaluation as markets digest momentum, valuation, and macro signals. In March, Hayes publicly argued that Hyperliquid (HYPE) could reach as high as $150 by August, a forecast that attracted attention in the more speculative corners of the market. Then, on June 1, he asserted that HYPE would outperform any other top-ten crypto in USD terms for the remainder of the year. Just three days later, he said he would exit the entire HYPE position, citing concerns over energy prices tied to the Iran war, inventory restocking dynamics, and the looming AI IPO wave. Those moves illustrate how even strongly bullish calls can give way to disciplined risk management amid shifting conditions.

The broader narrative around HYPE extended beyond the original calls. A separate episode saw Hayes depicting what he called the “Holy Trinity” of HYPE, ZEC, and NEAR as dead. Yet the script appears to have evolved again. On Monday, a wallet linked to Hayes reportedly purchased back around 33,978 HYPE tokens, valued at approximately $2 million, after the price had fallen following his June sale, according to Arkham Intelligence. The reversal underscores how public figures in crypto can simultaneously shape sentiment and experience reversals themselves as markets respond to new information and evolving risk appetites.

Cointelegraph sought comment from Maelstrom on the latest movements, but as of publication had not received a reply. The episode nonetheless adds another data point to a long-running conversation about how influential investors manage risk when AI-focused narratives dominate sentiment, and how those narratives intersect with real-world catalysts like major IPOs.

Implications for investors and the ongoing AI narrative

The Worldcoin episode highlights two central tensions facing crypto markets today. First, there is an enduring allure to “AI mega IPO” narratives, which promise outsized upside by aligning token bets with the broader science-fiction-like story of artificial intelligence redefining industries. Yet the rapid swings seen in WLD—especially after high-profile endorsements and headlines—also demonstrate the fragility of such narratives when measured against price action and risk control. For traders and funds, the episode reinforces the importance of explicit risk budgets and diversified exposure rather than relying on a single proxy to capture a sweeping theme.

Second, Hayes’s sequence of bullish pronouncements followed by swift exits raises questions about conviction versus timing. The pattern—picking a narrative, staking a position, and then revisiting the thesis in light of new data—mirrors a recurring dynamic among market participants who seek to monetize speed and access to information. For followers and rivals, the episodes provide case studies in how influence can guide attention and liquidity, but also how quickly opinion can reverse when new data arrives or when market conditions shift.

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Looking ahead, traders will likely watch not only the immediate price trajectory of Worldcoin but also the broader AI narrative’s staying power. Key questions include whether WLD can sustain an upward trajectory without a sustained, verifiable catalyst beyond talk of AI IPOs, and how other AI-focused tokens perform as the market evaluates the credibility and timing of these megabets. The SpaceX IPO timeline remains a potential inflection point: if the listing proceeds as expected, it could either validate the broader AI-exposure thesis or reignite questions about the durability of proxy assets in crypto markets.

As with many episodes in the crypto space, the outcomes are as much about investor psychology as about fundamentals. The next developments—SpaceX’s IPO timeline, the continuing temperature of AI-narrative bets, and how participants reconcile competing signals—will help determine whether Worldcoin and its peers can sustain a durable narrative or retreat into the realm of episodic volatility.

Readers should monitor how public bets translate into liquidity shifts, and how notable investors adjust their positions as new data arrives. The coming weeks will be telling for whether the AI IPO story can withstand a test of time or whether it remains a narrative-driven rally that hinges on ongoing catalysts and consistent risk management.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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EU Crypto Deadline Looms: Only 14 Exchanges Are Licensed to Let You Trade

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EU Crypto Deadline Looms: Only 14 Exchanges Are Licensed to Let You Trade

The EU’s crypto market could very well shrink in three weeks. On July 1, 2026, the transitional period under Europe’s Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation (MiCA) expires.

Any crypto exchange, broker, or wallet provider operating in the EU without a CASP (Crypto-Asset Service Provider) license must cease operations immediately. According to the live CASP register, 183 entities hold full MiCA authorization across 20 EEA (European Economic Area) member states.

EU MiCA License in Numbers

Of those 183, only 14 hold authorization to operate trading platforms. If you hold crypto on a platform not on that list, you have only 3 weeks to move it.

Germany holds nearly 30% of all EU MiCA authorizations with 53 licensed entities, followed by the Netherlands (25), France (13), and Malta (12).

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But authorization for custody and transfers is not the same as authorization to run a trading platform. Only 14 of the 183 authorized CASPs hold a license for trading platform operation, the rarest and most demanding authorization category under MiCA.

EU MiCA License Categories

10 EU and EEA member states have issued zero CASP authorizations: Croatia, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Norway, Poland, Portugal, and Romania.

Estonia once held hundreds of licensed crypto firms under the old VASP (Virtual Asset Service Provider) framework. That number has collapsed as MiCA approached, with its CASP conversion rate near zero.

Poland, historically one of Europe’s most popular crypto licensing jurisdictions, has not yet passed domestic legislation to grant MiCA authorizations.

The named authorized exchanges with trading platform authorization include Coinbase (Ireland), Kraken (Ireland and Luxembourg), Binance (full EU passport), OKX (Malta), Crypto.com (Malta), Bitstamp (Luxembourg), Bitpanda (Austria), Bitvavo (Netherlands), and Revolut.

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For most EU users, these are the platforms that still work after July 1.

The conversion rate from old VASP registrations to full MiCA authorization sits at roughly 8% across the continent.

Tether Is Gone, and the Consequences Are Serious

Tether declined to apply for MiCA authorization. No MiCA-licensed platform lists USDT. Coinbase, Kraken, Crypto.com, and Binance have already blocked EU accounts from trading USDT.

Circle’s USDC and EURC are the only top-10 stablecoins compliant with MiCA rules.

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For unlicensed firms still operating after July 1, the options are: obtain a license, cease operations, execute an orderly wind-down, transfer clients to an authorized CASP, or merge with a license holder.

France’s financial regulator, the AMF, has explicitly warned that continued unauthorized operation after the deadline risks criminal prosecution.

The compliance cost for authorization runs between €250,000 and €500,000, which is why most smaller EU crypto companies are choosing to exit. As BeInCrypto reported on the pressure MiCA places on smaller firms, Germany faces the sharpest contraction.

What EU crypto users need to do:

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  • Check your exchange against the authorized list. If it is not there, move your funds before July 1.
  • USDT holders must convert to USDC or EURC now, or move their USDT to a non-EU platform before the deadline.
  • Users in Poland, Italy, Romania, and the other seven zero-authorization states. Local licensed providers do not exist. Use globally authorized exchanges with EU passports.

183 firms made the cut. Only 14 can run a full trading platform. July 1 is three weeks away.

The post EU Crypto Deadline Looms: Only 14 Exchanges Are Licensed to Let You Trade appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Gold slips below 200-day moving average offering glimmer of hope for bitcoin bulls

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Gold (TradingView)

Gold has fallen below its 200-day moving average (200DMA), a widely followed long term technical indicator that tracks the average closing price over the previous 200 trading days.

A break below the 200DMA is often interpreted as a sign that long term bullish momentum has weakened and that a broader trend reversal may be underway. This is the first time gold has traded below its 200DMA since October 2023, with prices now slipping beneath $4,300 per ounce.

Gold (TradingView)

The decline follows a huge rally in which gold surged nearly 200%, climbing from below $2,000 per ounce in October 2023 to a record high of $5,600 in January this year. Much of that advance was driven by the “debasement trade“, the investment thesis that government spending, rising debt levels, and loose monetary policy would erode the purchasing power of fiat currencies, increasing demand for scarce stores of value such as gold.

Gold has now entered bear market territory, having fallen more than 20% from its all time high. The latest weakness follows a stronger than expected U.S. jobs report on Friday, which prompted markets to price in a greater likelihood of Federal Reserve tightening. CME FedWatch Tool, now assigns a 25 basis point rate hike in December, which would lift the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.

Silver, which is often viewed as a higher beta version of gold due to its greater volatility, is currently testing support at its own 200DMA near $67 per ounce.

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The bitcoin to gold ratio, which measures how many ounces of gold one bitcoin can purchase, has risen 3% over the past 24 hours to 14.72 ounces as bitcoin recovers toward $63,000.

Despite the rebound, the ratio remains roughly 70% below its December 2024 peak of approximately 41 ounces. Last month, the ratio was rejected at its 200DMA, which preceded bitcoin’s decline below $60,000. However, the ratio remains above its February lows, offering a modest sign of resilience for bitcoin bulls.

Adding further pressure to risk assets, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed back above 100. A stronger dollar is typically a headwind for commodities, gold, and cryptocurrencies because it tightens global financial conditions, reduces liquidity, and makes dollar denominated assets more expensive for international investors.

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Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH BTC Ratio Has Yet to Reverse This Cycle?

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Ethereum price is recovering from a bloodbath last week while the ETH BTC ratio is off its most depressed prediction since the Covid era.

Ethereum price prediction is pressing hard against a wall. ETH is trading at $1,650, recovering from a brutal bloodbath last week. Meanwhile, the ETH BTC ratio is off its most depressed levels since the Covid era.

After falling from the 2nd-largest crypto by market cap last week, ETH is finally back at the top of the USDT stablecoin market cap. The setup is a bullish consolidation pressing into a resistance of $1,700.

Ethereum price is recovering from a bloodbath last week while the ETH BTC ratio is off its most depressed prediction since the Covid era.
ETH BTC Ratio, Weekly, TradingView

For now, the ETH BTC ratio has slipped toward 0.026, where it was last seen during the Covid crash. This has also shown how thoroughly Bitcoin has dominated institutional flows this cycle. Can Ethereum price finally recapture its relative strength, and the bearish prediction?

Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio

Ethereum Price Prediction: Is $5,000 Still A Realistic Target?

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The technical structure is arguably the most constructive ETH has shown in months. Price is holding above the $1,500 psychological floor, even with analysts calling for a sub $1,000 level.

Volume at $15 billion adds credibility to the move. With ETH holding above $1,600 now, it could as well target $2,000.

Bitcoin (BTC)
24h7d30d1yAll time

If ETH can close convincingly above $1,700 on sustained volume. The next targets are $1,800, then $2,000. Or more consolidation between $1,500 – $1,600 for several sessions before a directional resolution. Ratio pressure from BTC persists but does not deepen materially.

However, a daily close below $1,500 reopens the path to $1,200 support. The ETH/BTC ratio could retest or extend below 0.0265.

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The ETH/BTC ratio is the uncomfortable variable. Even a dollar-denominated ETH breakout may not signal genuine Ethereum outperformance if Bitcoin’s macro momentum continues absorbing institutional rotation.

Discover: The Best Token Presales

Bitcoin Hyper Targets Early-Mover Upside as Ethereum Tests Key Levels

ETH at its current price is exciting, but it also means anyone buying here is doing so at a make-or-break point. That tension is real, and the risk balloons. The upside from $1,600 to $1,800 is just 16%. Worthwhile, but late-cycle positioning at proven resistance carries execution risk that early-stage assets simply don’t carry in the same way.

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That’s where Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) draws attention from traders already watching the BTC/ETH narrative. It’s the first-ever Bitcoin Layer 2 with Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) integration, designed to deliver faster performance than Solana while inheriting Bitcoin’s security and trust.

The project addresses Bitcoin’s core constraints directly: slow transactions, high fees, and the absence of programmable smart contracts.

The presale has raised $32 million at a current token price of $0.0136. Staking is live with a high 36% APY, and the architecture includes a Decentralized Canonical Bridge for native BTC transfers alongside extremely low-latency transaction execution.

Early interest has been substantial, reflecting genuine demand for Bitcoin infrastructure plays as the ecosystem matures.

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Research Bitcoin Hyper before the presale price moves.

The post Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH BTC Ratio Has Yet to Reverse This Cycle? appeared first on Cryptonews.

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XRP price could plunge to $0.90 before bottoming out, analyst says

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XRP price has formed a descending parallel channel pattern on the weekly chart.

XRP price has stabilized near $1.14 after a sharp weekly selloff, but analyst warnings and weak technical structure suggest the token could still revisit $0.90 before forming a durable bottom.

Summary

  • Analyst Ali Martinez says XRP could fall to $0.90 before finding a bottom.
  • Bearish chart patterns and liquidation clusters keep downside risks in focus.
  • XRPL attracted $1.5 billion in RWA inflows, supporting long-term fundamentals.

According to data from crypto.news, XRP (XRP) price traded near $1.14 on June 8 after plunging from around $1.45 at the start of the month and briefly testing support near $1.10 during the recent market-wide selloff.

XRP token has spent the past two sessions consolidating between roughly $1.10 and $1.15 as traders assessed the impact of macroeconomic headwinds, rising geopolitical tensions, and a liquidation-driven decline that pushed several momentum indicators into oversold territory.

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XRP price stabilized despite crypto market sentiment remaining fragile following Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop toward the $60,000 area, persistent spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, and a stronger U.S. dollar after hotter-than-expected labor market data reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

XRP faces pressure from macro shocks and oil-led inflation risks

Risk appetite weakened further after WTI crude futures jumped more than 4% above $94 per barrel on June 8. The move followed renewed missile exchanges between Iran and Israel, which threatened President Donald Trump’s efforts to secure a proposed 60-day ceasefire with Tehran.

Higher oil prices added another problem for crypto traders because energy-driven inflation could make it harder for the Fed to ease policy.

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Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar usually weigh on non-yielding assets, leaving altcoins such as XRP exposed during periods of forced deleveraging.

Bitcoin’s brief recovery toward the $62,000 to $63,000 range has helped slow the selloff, but the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in Extreme Fear territory. XRP’s current consolidation therefore looks more like a pause after heavy selling than a confirmed trend reversal.

XRP chart keeps $0.90 in focus as liquidation clusters build

On the weekly chart, XRP continues to trade inside a descending parallel channel that has capped price action since its 2025 peak near $3.80. The latest candle is sitting near the lower half of that structure, with immediate support around $1.13 and deeper horizontal support near $0.90.

XRP price has formed a descending parallel channel pattern on the weekly chart.
XRP price has formed a descending parallel channel pattern on the weekly chart — June 8 | Source: crypto.news

According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, the $0.90 region remains a key level for long-term buyers.

Momentum data supports the bearish setup. The weekly MACD remains below the zero line, with the signal line still above the MACD line, while the Aroon indicator shows Aroon Down near 92.86% and Aroon Up around 14.29%. That structure shows sellers continue to control the larger trend.

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The 3-day XRP liquidation heatmap shows heavy leverage concentrated below spot price between $1.08 and $1.05, with another strong liquidity pocket near $1.04. A sweep of those levels could trigger another wave of forced selling before the market attempts a stronger rebound.

XRP liquidation heatmap 3-day chart.
XRP liquidation heatmap | Source: CoinGlass

Upside liquidity is clustered around $1.17 to $1.20, meaning a short squeeze is still possible if XRP breaks above the current range. However, the token would need to reclaim $1.31 and then $1.50 to weaken the descending channel structure.

Fundamentals offer one counterweight to the bearish chart. As crypto.news reported earlier, XRP Ledger recorded around $1.5 billion in real-world asset inflows over the last 30 days, while Ethereum saw roughly $1.2 billion in outflows. XRPL’s RWA market cap also rose more than 124% in the first quarter, with tokenized assets reaching about $2.25 billion.

Ripple’s RLUSD expansion through Wormhole has also improved liquidity options across multiple networks. The stablecoin push adds to Ripple’s focus on tokenized securities, funds, and institutional assets, giving XRP a stronger fundamental story than many altcoins facing similar macro pressure.

Still, price action remains the near-term driver. A weekly close below $1.10 could expose $1.05 first, followed by the $0.90 zone highlighted by Martinez.

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A recovery above $1.20 would ease immediate downside pressure, but XRP may need a break above $1.50 before traders can argue that the larger downtrend has started to fail.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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U.S. PCI report, ECB interest-rate decision: Crypto Week Ahead: Crypto Week Ahead

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U.S. PCI report, ECB interest-rate decision: Crypto Week Ahead: Crypto Week Ahead

The second week of June puts the crypto market’s resilience to the test as digital assets battle an unusual divergence from record-setting equity markets.

Following a grueling nine-month correction cycle that has pushed bitcoin down to major psychological support levels, traders enter the week facing a double-barreled threat of heavy token emissions and tightening cross-asset liquidity.

The direction of the week’s risk appetite could be dictated by a high-stakes macro calendar. Traditional markets are bracing for Wednesday’s U.S. CPI print, and a hot inflation reading could lock in a restrictive Federal Reserve stance and deepen recent spot ETF outflows.

With the market trying to find a definitive bottom amid persistent geopolitical friction and shifting risk capital, the week’s data will determine whether the asset class faces further downside or maps out a structural recovery.

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What to Watch

(All times ET)

  • Crypto
    • June 8: Coinbase debuts its perpetual-style equity index futures, expanding its derivatives offerings beyond crypto assets.
    • June 8: Starknet introduces a new STRK20 privacy standard on its mainnet, adding native privacy-preserving features and shielding mechanics to the Ethereum layer-2 network.
    • June 8-12: The Clarity Act continues its legislative progress on the full Senate floor. The market-structure bill faces debate over DeFi obligations and stablecoin yield exemptions.
  • Macro
    • June 9, 9:30 p.m.: China Inflation Rate YoY for May est. 1.3% (Prev. 1.2%); PPI YoY est. 3.8% (Prev. 2.8%)
    • June 10, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Inflation Rate YoY for May est. 4.2% (Prev. 3.8%); Core Inflation Rate YoY est. 2.9% (Prev. 2.8%)
    • June 10, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Inflation Rate MoM for May est. 0.5% (Prev. 0.6%); Core Inflation MoM est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
    • June 11, 4:15 a.m.: ECB Interest-Rate Decision est. 2.25% (Prev. 2.00%)
    • June 11, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. PPI MoM for May est. 0.8% (Prev. 1.4%); Core PPI MoM est. 0.4% (Prev. 0.7%)
    • June 11, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for period ending June 6 est. 218K (Prev. 215K)
    • June 12, 2 a.m.: U.K. GDP MoM for April est. -0.1% (Prev. 0.3%); GDP YoY est. 1.1% (Prev. 1.2%)
  • Earnings

Token Events

  • Governance Votes & Calls
    • Aave is conducting a temperature check seeking community feedback on deploying Aave V4 on Arc alongside supporting an initial set of high-quality assets. Voting ends on June 9.
    • Bancor (BNT) is voting on a proposed lower fee on numerous stablecoin pairings, including USDS, UDSe and PYUSD. Voting closes on June 10.
    • Decentraland DAO is voting on lowering the voting power threshold for governance proposals from 6 million to 5 million or less, aiming to address declining voter participation. Voting ends on June 12.
  • Unlocks
    • June 9: HumidiFi (WET) to unlock 111.59% of its circulating supply worth $14.33 million.
    • June 10: HOME (HOME) to unlock 19.79% of its circulating supply worth $25.68 million.
    • June 10: Magic Eden (ME) to 33.99% of its circulating supply worth $10.08 million.
    • June 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 2.54% of its circulating supply worth $673 million.
  • Token Launches
    • June 8: Pharos (PROS) listed on Bitrue at 2 a.m.

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Galaxy cuts CLARITY Act odds as Senate clock runs out

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Santiment flags Bitcoin euphoria after CLARITY win

Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026, warning that the Senate is running out of time to pass the crypto market structure bill.

Summary

  • Galaxy cut CLARITY Act odds to 60% as Senate floor time becomes harder to secure.
  • Alex Thorn said July action is needed before the August recess closes the window.
  • JPMorgan and Bitwise also flagged lower odds as ethics and finance talks remain unresolved.

Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, said the firm now sees a 60% chance of passage this year. Galaxy had raised its estimate to 75% in May after the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill.

Galaxy lowers CLARITY Act odds to 60%

“On May 22, we raised our estimate of the probability that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 75%,” Thorn said. “We are now lowering that estimate to 60%,” he added.

The change shows how quickly the bill’s path has narrowed. Thorn said Senate leaders must move the bill before lawmakers leave for their August recess in late July.

He said the window “effectively closes” after that break because midterm election activity will make major legislation harder to pass.

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Senate calendar becomes the main risk

The CLARITY Act still needs Senate floor debate, an amendment process, and alignment between different Senate committee texts.

Thorn said Senate Majority Leader John Thune would likely need to schedule floor time in July for the process to fit before recess.

“Anything later and the procedural steps do not fit before the recess,” Thorn said.

The bill also needs at least 60 Senate votes to avoid a long debate process. That means lawmakers must settle remaining disputes while keeping enough bipartisan support.

Ethics and illicit finance talks remain open

Galaxy said it would raise its odds again if Senate leaders commit to a July vote and lawmakers settle the remaining policy issues.

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Thorn said ethics and illicit finance provisions remain key sticking points. These issues matter because they could affect support from senators who remain cautious about crypto rules.

Senator Cynthia Lummis has continued pressing for a floor vote. She wrote that the bill had cleared committee and that “the floor is next.”

Lummis also told CNBC that lawmakers are working through ethics and illicit finance concerns before a possible vote.

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As previously reported by crypto.news, Galaxy had raised its CLARITY Act odds to 75% after the Senate Banking Committee passed the bill in a 15-9 bipartisan vote.

Separate crypto.news reporting noted that JPMorgan later warned the bill was running out of time. The bank placed the chance of passage this year at less than 50%.

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan also sounded more cautious. He said some Washington insiders put the odds between 5% and 30%.

The CLARITY Act remains one of the crypto industry’s main policy goals. Its path now depends on whether Senate leaders can find floor time, settle the open provisions, and send a revised bill back to the House before the election calendar takes over.

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Iran Envoy Says Iran and Oman Will Set New Hormuz Conditions

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Iran Envoy Says Iran and Oman Will Set New Hormuz Conditions

Iran’s ambassador to Moscow said the Strait of Hormuz will be open, but under new conditions.

The envoy mentioned Iranian and Omani authorities will determine conditions, which will include transit fees. 

Iran to Monetize Hormuz as Oil Flows Stay Choked

Kazem Jalali made the remarks to the Russian newspaper Izvestia on Monday. His comments signal Tehran’s intent to monetize its grip over the waterway. 

Jalali said Iran and Oman provide services tied to the strait and would charge for them. He did not detail how the fees would be structured.

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“Of course, this strait will ⁠be open, but with new conditions to be determined by ​the Iranian and Omani authorities,” he said. “We understand that Iran and Oman provide certain services related to this strait. And fees will be charged for those services.”

However, the plan faces firm resistance from Washington. The US warned Oman in late May not to join the effort. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Oman’s ambassador denied any such plans.

Meanwhile, this is not the first time Tehran has tied the Hormuz passage to payment. In April, Iran said it would charge oil tankers transit tolls in cryptocurrency.

Hamid Hosseini, spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, named Bitcoin (BTC) as a payment method.

Hormuz Closure Squeezes Energy Markets

The US-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28 and has largely choked oil flows through the strait. Before the conflict, the waterway carried about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and a similar share of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

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That disruption has kept energy prices high. Brent crude traded near $97 a barrel on Monday after Israel struck Lebanon and explosions hit Iranian cities. Moreover, oil and LNG flows remain severely constrained.

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The standoff is rippling through global trade. Spot rates for a 40-foot container from Asia to the US West Coast rose 20% in a week. According to The Kobeissi Letter, the price hit $3,933, the highest in months, while charges to Northern Europe jumped 27% to $3,649.

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“Since the start of the Iran War, Asia-to-US container rates have surged +109%, and Asia-to-Europe rates are up by more than +50%,” the post read.

Analysts expect more pressure as importers restock inventories in July and August. 

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The post Iran Envoy Says Iran and Oman Will Set New Hormuz Conditions appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Don’t Trust Bitcoin’s Bounce Now, Analyst Warns Capitulation Is Still Ahead

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Bitcoin’s price rebound since the Friday massacre to $59,000 drove the asset north to $64,000 earlier this morning, perhaps driven by some positive developments on the US-Iran war front.

One analyst, though, believes this price recovery is not the full story and warned about another major retracement.

BTC Jumps to $64K

The primary cryptocurrency plunged below $60,000 on Friday for the first time since before the US presidential elections in November 2024. This new local low was the culmination of a weeks-long correction that began in mid-May when the asset was rejected at $82,000.

It managed to rebound to just over $60,000 relatively quickly and bounced to $62,000 over the weekend. It experienced some volatility yesterday evening when Iran struck Israel in retaliation for attacks against Lebanon. However, US President Donald Trump condemned all the strikes and said that his country and Iran might be closer to a peace deal that could be announced in the following few days.

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BTC jumped to $64,200 in a promising wick, but was quickly stopped and now sits at around $63,000. Most altcoins followed the fluctuations, leading to another uptick in the liquidations from the futures field. The total value of wrecked positions has risen to well past $600 million daily, shows CoinGlass data. This time, though, short liquidations dominate with $467 million.

Liquidation Data on CoinGlass
Liquidation Data on CoinGlass

Don’t Trust The Pump

Popular analyst Merlijn The Trader predicted BTC’s bounce following the $59,000 low, but cautioned that this is not the full story. He based his analysis on the 2022 bear market, when the cryptocurrency had already retraced hard but then rebounded in a similar manner. However, the actual capitulation was still in play and followed after some investors had already hopped on.

If history repeats now, Merlijn predicted a price surge toward $65,000-$70,000 before the ultimate leg down drives the asset to a proper DCA zone between $48,000 and $59,000.

The post Don’t Trust Bitcoin’s Bounce Now, Analyst Warns Capitulation Is Still Ahead appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Zcash bounces about 45% as developers propose Ironwood upgrade

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Zcash bounces about 45% as developers propose Ironwood upgrade

Zcash has clawed back much of last week’s losses, rising about 45% from the low near $300 it hit Friday as developers proposed a fix for the flaw that triggered the sell-off.

ZEC traded around $437 on Monday, according to CoinDesk data, though it remains down roughly 22% over the week. The token plunged after Shielded Labs, a nonprofit developer on the network, disclosed a counterfeiting bug in Zcash’s Orchard pool, the part of the system that hides transaction details.

The flaw, undetected since 2022, could have let an attacker create unlimited fake ZEC without anyone noticing and withdraw tokens from the protocol’s shielded pool – which offers opt-in priv

Developers, including Shielded Labs, the Zcash Foundation, and the Zcash Open Development Lab, patched the bug within days through emergency network upgrades, coordinated with the mining pools ViaBTC and Foundry. On June 6, the same groups proposed Ironwood, a plan to restore users’ ability to confirm the coin’s supply is sound.

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Ironwood would create a new privacy pool using the repaired code and block the creation of new coins in the old Orchard pool. Once it activates, anyone running the Zcash software could add up the balances across pools and confirm that no more than the correct amount of ZEC exists.

Users would not have to trust the developers’ word or wait for funds to migrate.

The plan could also reveal whether the bug was ever abused. As users move coins out of the old pool, any counterfeit ZEC would either be exposed when it tried to leave or be stranded and destroyed. Shielded Labs has said it believes exploitation was unlikely.

The proposal has drawn attention beyond the Zcash community. In his latest newsletter, investor Chamath Palihapitiya described Ironwood as a way for anyone running a node to tally the balances across pools and “verify the supply is clean.”

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Developers have not given a firm timeline for the upgrade, saying the work to build, test and coordinate it across the network could take longer than expected.

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