Crypto World
CoinShares says part of Bitcoin fleet Is unprofitable
Bitcoin mining margins remain under pressure as lower revenue and higher operating costs narrow the list of viable operators.
Summary
- CoinShares said falling hashprice has pushed part of the Bitcoin mining fleet below profitability levels.
- Older mining machines face the most pressure as electricity costs rise above sustainable operating thresholds.
- Bitcoin difficulty dropped sharply in March, offering some relief while miner margins remained under pressure.
A new CoinShares report says part of the global mining fleet now sits below profitability, with older machines and higher power costs facing the most pressure.
CoinShares said Q4 2025 was the hardest quarter for Bitcoin miners since the April 2024 halving. The firm said lower Bitcoin prices and near-record network hashrate pushed hashprice to five-year lows and lifted the weighted average cash cost to produce one Bitcoin among listed miners to about $79,995 in Q4 2025.
The report said hashprice dropped further to about $29 per PH/s/day in Q1 2026. CoinShares added that current mining economics do not support a broad hardware refresh cycle, as weaker returns continue to pressure balance sheets and daily cash flow across the sector.
CoinShares said the current revenue level makes several machine models unworkable at common power rates. The report stated that any miner running hardware below an S19 XP at electricity costs of 6 cents per kilowatt-hour or more is losing money at a hashprice near $30 per PH/s/day.
The firm estimated that this group accounts for about 15% to 20% of the global Bitcoin mining fleet. That places the current squeeze on operators with older fleets, weaker efficiency, or less favorable power agreements, while larger miners with newer hardware and cheaper energy retain more room to operate.
Moreover, hashrate Index said USD hashprice rose 4.9% in the week to March 23, reaching $33.65 per PH/s/day from $32.08. Even so, the same report said that at about $33 per PH/s/day, hashprice remains at or below breakeven for many miners depending on machine type and operating costs.
The network has already started to reflect that strain. Hashrate Index said Bitcoin’s latest difficulty adjustment on March 20 cut difficulty by 7.76% to 133.79 trillion, reducing the work needed to mine a block and giving some relief to miners that stayed online.
CoinShares sees more stress if Bitcoin stays below key levels
CoinShares head of research James Butterfill said,
“If prices were to stay below US$80k for the remainder of the year, we forecast the hashprice to continue to fall.”
He added that in that scenario, “the hashprice would more likely flatline” as miners switch off unprofitable rigs and network hashrate falls.
CoinShares also said higher-cost miners may face more capitulation in the first half of 2026 unless Bitcoin recovers. The report said the sector is moving toward operators with structural advantages, including low-cost power, better machine efficiency, and the ability to shift part of their business toward AI and data center services.
Torg Grabber, a newly identified infostealer malware, targets 728 crypto wallet extensions across 850 browser add-ons, and it is already in active deployment.
The malware exfiltrates seed phrases, private keys, and session tokens through encrypted channels before most endpoint tools register a detection event. Self-custody users running browser-based wallets are the primary exposure surface.
Gen Digital researchers documented the threat after tracing a loader chain through domain reputation data, ultimately compiling 334 samples across a three-month development window. This is not a proof-of-concept. It is a live Malware-as-a-Service operation with identified operators.
- Threat Scope: Torg Grabber scans 850 browser extensions, 728 of them crypto wallet targets, across 25 Chromium and 8 Firefox browser variants.
- Attack Method: Dropper masquerades as a legitimate Chrome update (GAPI_Update.exe, 60 MB), deploys payload via a fake 420-second Windows Security Update progress bar, then exfiltrates data using ChaCha20 encryption with HMAC-SHA256 authentication through Cloudflare infrastructure.
- Who Is at Risk: Browser-extension wallet users — MetaMask, Phantom, and comparable hot wallets — face direct credential theft; hardware wallet users face indirect risk only if seed phrases are stored digitally.
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The Mechanism: How Torg Grabber Malware Executes the Attack On Crypto Wallets
The infection chain opens with a dropper disguised as GAPI_Update.exe — a 60 MB InnoSetup package distributed from Dropbox infrastructure. It extracts three benign DLLs into %LOCALAPPDATA%\Connector\ to establish a clean-looking footprint, then launches a fake Windows Security Update progress bar running for exactly 420 seconds, complete with animated ASCII art compiled via csc.exe. The delay is deliberate: it creates a plausible installation window while the payload deploys.
The final executable drops under randomized names — v4jkqh.exe, hkjpy08.exe, ln3dkgz.exe — into C:\Windows\ across documented samples. One captured 13 MB instance spawned dllhost.exe and attempted to disable Event Tracing for Windows before behavioral detection terminated it mid-execution.
Post-deployment, Torg Grabber targets 25 Chromium browsers, 8 Firefox variants, Discord, Steam, Telegram, VPN clients, FTP clients, email clients, and password managers in addition to crypto wallets. Data is archived to an in-memory ZIP or streamed in chunks. Exfiltration routes through Cloudflare endpoints using per-request HMAC-SHA256 X-Auth-Token headers and ChaCha20 encryption — a production-grade architecture, not improvised tooling.
CRYPTO THEFT MALWARE: New “Torg Grabber” infostealer targets 728 cryptocurrency wallets.
The malware is designed to harvest wallet data and enable theft of digital assets.
Crypto wallets remain a primary target for financially motivated attackers.— CyberAlertsHQ (@CyberAlertsHQ) March 25, 2026
Gen Digital’s analysis identified over 40 operator tags embedded in binaries: nicknames, date-encoded batch IDs, and Telegram user IDs linking eight operators to the Russian cybercrime ecosystem. The MaaS model means individual operators can deploy custom shellcode post-registration, expanding the attack surface beyond the base configuration. As Gen Digital researchers described it, Torg Grabber evolved from Telegram dead drops to “a production-grade REST API that worked like a Swiss watch dipped in poison.”
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The Self-Custody Signal: What 728 Wallets Actually Means
728 is not an arbitrary number. It represents a deliberate configuration sweep, every major browser-based wallet with measurable installation volume. MetaMask alone has over 30 million monthly active users. The extension-targeting logic means Torg Grabber does not need to find a specific victim; it harvests whatever wallet credentials are present on any infected machine.
The broader risk bifurcates cleanly. Self-custody users storing seed phrases in browser storage, text files, or password managers face complete wallet compromise on a single infection. Exchange-held assets are not directly exposed to this specific attack vector, the malware targets local credential stores, not exchange APIs at scale. But session token theft from browser storage can expose connected exchange accounts if login sessions are active.
If Torg Grabber’s MaaS operator base expands, and Gen Digital’s monitoring of its REST API infrastructure suggests active iteration, the wallet targeting list will grow. The 728 figure is a current snapshot, not a ceiling. Comparable infostealers like Vidar and RedLine normalized this model years ago; Torg Grabber is executing the same playbook with more structured infrastructure.
Discover: The best crypto presales gaining institutional momentum right now
The post New ‘Torg Grabber’ Malware Targets 728 Crypto Wallets appeared first on Cryptonews.
ARK Invest is adding Kalshi’s prediction market data to its research process as more institutions test whether these markets can help measure expectations in real time.
Summary
- ARK Invest adopts Kalshi data to track real time expectations and guide research decisions
- Prediction markets expand beyond trading as institutions explore signals for risk management and forecasting
- Federal Reserve and academia study prediction markets as tools for real time economic expectations analysis
Meanwhile, the move places prediction market signals alongside ARK’s existing work on market trends, policy events, and company milestones, showing how the data is being used for research and portfolio planning beyond direct trading.
According to the announcement, ARK will use Kalshi data to track real-time expectations and support its market-based research. The firm also plans to study signals tied to trading activity, regulatory approvals, and technology progress as part of that process.
Kalshi said ARK will also use the data in risk management and hedging. Cathie Wood said, “Bringing prediction markets into institutional workflows is a natural next step for innovation in financial research,” while ARK Research Director Nick Grous said these markets offer “some of the purest expressions of risk around key economic and company-specific outcomes.”
In an X post, Wood said on X that ARK has also been working with Kalshi on markets tied to topics the firm follows, including macroeconomic releases and scientific milestones. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said some of those markets are already live, including contracts linked to non-farm payrolls, deficit-to-GDP ratios, and business key performance indicators.
The partnership adds to a wider push to use prediction market data as a decision tool. Kalshi has grown into one of the main regulated platforms in the sector, and firms are testing whether market-based probability signals can complement surveys, analyst models, and event-driven research.
Fed and academic research track the same trend
A Federal Reserve paper published last month said Kalshi’s macro markets can provide a “high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark” for researchers and policymakers. The paper compared Kalshi data with surveys and market-based forecasts and argued that prediction markets can offer a real-time view of changing expectations.
Academic work has also examined how prediction markets react to political shocks. A recent paper using Polymarket’s 2024 presidential election data studied trading around the Biden-Trump debate, the assassination attempt on Trump, and Biden’s withdrawal from the race, showing how traders adjusted positions as events unfolded.
Crypto World
MARA Sells 15,133 Bitcoin for $1 Billion Debt Repurchase, Retains 15,627 BTC in Reserve
TLDR:
- MARA sold 15,133 BTC at ~$65,348 each, generating roughly $989M to fund its debt repurchase plan.
- The company captured $88.1M in savings by repurchasing convertible notes at a 9% discount to par.
- MARA reduced its total convertible debt by 30%, bringing the balance down to roughly $2.3 billion.
- After the BTC sale, MARA still holds 15,627 Bitcoin as long-term strategic reserves on its books.
MARA Holdings, Inc. sold 15,133 bitcoins to complete a $1 billion repurchase of its convertible senior notes. The Miami-based company executed the sales between March 4 and March 25, 2026.
Total proceeds reached approximately $1.1 billion, with the remainder reserved for general corporate purposes. The company, listed on NASDAQ under the symbol MARA, is the largest Bitcoin mining firm in the United States.
Following the deal, MARA retains approximately 15,627 bitcoins as long-term core reserves.
MARA Captures $88 Million Discount on Convertible Note Repurchase
The repurchase targets 0.00% convertible senior notes due in 2030 and 2031. MARA agreed to buy back $367.5 million in 2030 notes for roughly $322.9 million.
It also repurchased $633.4 million in 2031 notes for approximately $589.9 million. Closings are set for March 30 and 31, 2026, respectively.
The transactions capture roughly $88.1 million in cash savings before costs. This equals about a 9% discount to the notes’ par value.
Overall, MARA’s outstanding convertible debt will decrease by approximately 30%. The deal also cuts potential shareholder dilution from note conversion features.
After closing, $632.5 million of the 2030 Notes and $291.6 million of the 2031 Notes remain. MARA’s total convertible debt stood at around $3.3 billion before the deal. That balance is expected to fall to roughly $2.3 billion. Other outstanding note series remain unchanged.
CEO Fred Thiel addressed the decision in a statement. “By retiring over $1 billion of face value debt at a discount, we captured $88 million in value,” Thiel stated.
He added the move reduces shareholder dilution and deleverages the balance sheet. J. Wood Capital Advisors and Paul, Weiss served as financial and legal advisors.
MARA Moves Beyond Bitcoin Mining Into Digital Energy and AI
The 15,133 bitcoins sold averaged approximately $65,348 per coin, generating roughly $989 million. Those funds were directed primarily toward financing the note repurchases.
Remaining proceeds will support general corporate purposes. MARA completed the sales without raising new equity or taking on additional debt.
MARA stated that it is now expanding beyond pure-play bitcoin mining. Digital energy and AI/HPC infrastructure are named as primary growth targets.
This reflects a capital allocation strategy aimed at long-term diversification. New revenue streams from these areas could reduce the company’s dependence on mining income.
Using bitcoin holdings to fund debt reduction allowed MARA to act on its own terms. The company still holds approximately 15,627 bitcoins as a strategic reserve.
That position gives MARA room to respond to future market opportunities. Retaining a strong reserve remains part of the company’s long-term plan.
Thiel said the transaction’s position at MARA, as well as it builds into new infrastructure areas. He noted the deal strengthens financial standing and expands strategic options.
Remaining convertible obligations total roughly $2.3 billion after the repurchases. MARA continues to manage its capital structure with efficiency and long-term growth in mind.
Institutional demand for bitcoin appears to be cooling after a strong start to the month.
On Thursday, investors withdrew a combined $171.12 million from the 11 U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, marking the largest single-day outflow in just over three weeks, according to data from SoSoValue. BlackRock’s IBIT saw $41.92 million in outflows, while funds such as FBTC, GBTC, BITB and ARKB each recorded withdrawals in the $20 million to $30 million range.
The recent pullback follows a period of robust inflows, with these funds attracting more than $2 billion between late February and mid-month. Since then, momentum has slowed, with just $95.8 million in inflows last week and net outflows of $70.71 million so far this week.
The moderation in flows may point to a pause in institutional accumulation, with investors adopting a more measured approach to these ETFs. Launched in January 2024, the funds allow market participants to take exposure to bitcoin without requiring direct ownership.
The slowdown in demand raises questions about how long bitcoin can maintain resilience near $70,000 amid broader macroeconomic shocks.
Large Bitcoin holders accumulated 61,568 more Bitcoin over the past month against the backdrop of escalating conflict in the Middle East and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Whales and sharks, defined as those holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin (BTC), have increased their holdings by 0.45%, while wallets with under 0.01 Bitcoin have added 0.42%, or 213 BTC, over the past month, Santiment said in an X post Thursday.
The figures support recent data showing that Bitcoin exchange outflows have persisted throughout March, indicating that Bitcoin holders are accumulating rather than looking to sell.
Santiment analysts added that whale accumulation could be a “promising sign” of an eventual breakout from the range.
“Ideally, the ranging pattern will break upwards when large wallets are accumulating, while retail is dumping. This has historically been a very reliable pattern to signal the start of bull cycles,” the analysts said.
Tensions in the Middle East escalated in February after the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran. Iran retaliated against several neighboring countries, and the conflict has continued since.
Some whales wait for breakout; small holders driven by FOMO
Some Bitcoin whales are taking a different approach.
On March 19, two Bitcoin whales moved tens of millions of dollars to exchanges as Bitcoin fell and energy prices jumped after attacks on Gulf oil and gas infrastructure deepened during the Iran conflict.
Dominick John, an analyst at Zeus Research, told Cointelegraph that the whales who have been accumulating in the background are likely preparing for the next breakout.
“Whales are scooping up BTC because they’re positioning ahead of a potential breakout, quietly stacking during consolidation periods. Small wallets are chasing the momentum, driven by FOMO during uptrends and the fear of missing the next leg up,” he said.
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“Whales tend to buy in waves, so accumulation could continue if the range holds and macro conditions stay supportive. On the other hand, if retail FOMO overheats, we could see a pause or slight sell-off before the next accumulation phase,” John added.
Fear and greed index in “extreme fear”
Meanwhile, investor sentiment remains deeply uncertain. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index returned a score of 13 on Friday, firmly in “extreme fear” territory.
Thursday’s score was 10, and both the prior week and the month of February averaged “extreme fear” ratings as well, according to the index.
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- Bitcoin price hovers near $68,500 but saw intraday lows of $68,000.
- Analysts say a textbook buy signal is flashing.
- Bulls could target $75,000-$80,000 next.
Bitcoin continues to face headwinds, with ongoing tensions in the Iran conflict and the macro outlook key.
Despite the cryptocurrency dipping to near $68,000 amid stock market declines, analysts are pointing to a potential contrarian signal as they forecast a new leg up for BTC.
The bellwether digital asset traded around $68,500 in early trading on Friday, with slight gains coming amid relief for US stock futures.
An uptick in risk assets came after President Donald Trump extended a deadline for potential strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure by ten days.
BTC now eyes a push back toward $69,000, signaling potential stabilization.
Santiment says BTC is flashing a textbook buy signal
Bitcoin’s retest of $68,000 aligns with what on-chain analytics firm Santiment highlights as a surge in retail bearishness.
Yet it’s this outlook that analysts say could count as a classic contrarian indicator.
Social media chatter shows the crowd amplifying fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) around Bitcoin and altcoins, with sentiment hitting lows not seen recently.
Why does this matter?
According to Santiment, cryptocurrency prices often defy public narratives.
“Historically, prices move opposite to the crowd’s narrative,” the firm notes.
This means that the current spike in pessimism could read as a robust buy signal.
It’s a textbook contrarian outlook where bearish chatter highlights potential bottoms, while bullish retail discourse often marks tops.
Santiment says optimistic terms like bounce, recovery, accumulating, or buying typically signal a sell opportunity.
Meanwhile, crowd chatter dominated by words such as dip, pullback, or bloodbath often signal buying opportunity.
🗣️ The retail crowd is showing signs of getting more and more bearish, expressing FUD toward Bitcoin and crypto. Historically, prices move opposite to the crowd’s narrative, making this below chart reveal a stronger buy signal. When you see crypto discourse with:
🔴 Words like… pic.twitter.com/rpgmtSz2Q2
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) March 27, 2026
Bitcoin price technical analysis
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price action has mirrored broader market volatility.
The asset plunged to intraday lows near $68,500, retracing to weekly support levels and transforming the $72,000–$75,000 band into a formidable supply zone.
Current price levels mark a 4% weekly decline, reflecting investor caution.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin presents a bullish setup amid the pullback.
The weekly RSI has dipped into oversold territory, hinting at exhaustion selling. Support at $68,000 aligns with the 200-week EMA, a prior accumulation and resistance zone.
The MACD indicator shows the histogram is flattening and there’s a hint of a bullish crossover.
On the upside, a retest of $70,000 brings $72,000 into view.
Short-term, the $75,000 supply zone could cap bulls’ move – unless they breach the level on increased volume amid de-escalation news. Broader forecasts point to $80,000 as a target for bulls.
On the downside, bears may fancy $65,000. However, they face a robust support base near the $60,000 mark.
The crypto market continued its downtrend on Friday as hopes of peace in the U.S. and Iran faded following a breakdown in diplomatic talks.
Summary
- Crypto market extended losses as fading U.S.–Iran peace hopes pushed Bitcoin below key support and triggered nearly $300 million in liquidations.
- Escalating Middle East tensions and surging oil prices fueled inflation fears, raising expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy.
- Investors rotated into safe-haven assets like gold while equities and crypto-related stocks declined amid a broader risk-off sentiment.
Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest crypto asset, lost the $70,000 psychological support, falling to $68,560 at press time, down 2.8% over the day. Ethereum (ETH) fell 3.9% to $2,050 while other major cryptocurrencies such as BNB (BNB), XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) posted losses between 2% and 4% respectively.
Some of the top laggards of the day were Siren (SIREN), Rain (RAIN), and Provenance Blockchain (HASH), which recorded double-digit losses of 42%, 13%, and 10%. The total crypto market cap fell 1.6% over the day to $2.43 trillion.
As crypto prices fell, the market suffered nearly $300 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with $254 million coming from long liquidations, reflecting the dominance of sellers. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index reading fell to 28, reflecting fear amidst investors who seem to be taking a risk-off stance amid market uncertainty.
The crypto market continued to remain bearish amid reports that the United States could be considering deploying 10,000 additional troops in the Middle East to bolster defenses against Iran. This followed after Tehran rejected the latest ceasefire proposal to end hostilities, as it called it an infringement on their sovereignty.
The ongoing geopolitical friction between the two nations has led to a blockade at the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime choke point, leading to significant oil supply chain disruptions. This has resulted in soaring crude oil prices, sparking concerns of runaway inflation across the globe.
Notably, WTI crude oil prices soared by over 31.6% the past month to over $93, while Brent oil surged 38% to over $107. Iranian officials have even threatened to push prices as high as $200.
Expectations of sky-high inflation as a result of the energy war could force the U.S. Federal Reserve to take on stricter monetary policies as they pivot back to data-dependent decision-making on interest rate cuts.
While the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% during the March meeting, growing concerns of higher inflation could shift the odds in favor of a rate hike, a U-turn from the narrative observed before the Middle East war erupted.
Despite these separate reports suggesting that US President Donald Trump is prepared to extend the current pause on military action by another 10 days amid shaky peace negotiations, the market remains on edge.
Capital rotation to traditional safe-haven assets
Crypto prices dropped as investors seem to be rotating their capital into gold, which is touted as the ultimate safe-haven asset. After falling below key levels on Thursday, gold prices rebounded back above $4,400, up nearly 2% today. In comparison, silver outperformed with gains of 3% during the same period.
Several Asian tech stocks, such as Japan’s Nikkei, South Korea’s Kospi, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, also slumped as investor appetite for risk assets was severely dampened. Cryptocurrencies share a high correlation with these traditional equity indices.
Outside of the crypto market, several top tech companies such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon saw their valuations trimmed. Crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase (COIN), Circle (CRCL), and Strategy (MSTR) also faced selling pressure.
However, the deepest impact was felt by bitcoin miners such as Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms, which have seen their margins squeezed by rising energy costs and the broader market retreat.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
The UK government is cracking down on a $20 billion Chinese-language crypto guarantee marketplace, with sweeping sanctions aimed at cutting the platform off from crypto access.
The UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office said in a statement Thursday that Xinbi provides crypto-based services, scam-enabling tools and other illicit services to bad actors and plays a central role in scam centers operating across Southeast Asia.
“The UK’s sanctions will isolate the platform from the legitimate crypto ecosystem, significantly disrupting its operations by affecting its ability to send and receive cryptocurrency transactions,” the agency said.
While the sanctions mainly target the crypto ecosystem, the latest wording from the UK government highlights a separation between legitimate and illicit crypto ecosystems rather than lumping them together — a positive direction for the industry’s reputation.
Under the sanctions, any UK assets connected to Xinbi will be frozen, and the platform will be barred from the country’s financial, trade and travel networks. UK-based businesses, including banks, crypto firms and individual citizens, are prohibited from providing goods, services, loans or investments to Xinbi.
Key infrastructure targeted in crackdown
Chainalysis estimates Xinbi processed more than $19.9 billion between 2021 and 2025 and is deeply interconnected with a range of other illicit services.
The department’s recent sanctions include Thet Li, who allegedly managed the international financial network of Prince Group, a Cambodia-based company accused of orchestrating large-scale crypto fraud schemes.
Hu Xiaowei, who is allegedly involved in the Prince Group’s financial network and #8 Park, a scam compound linked to the group, was also sanctioned.
Blockchain analytics company Chainalysis said in a report Thursday that the sanctions target the scam ecosystem’s on- and off-ramps that enable large-scale fraud and are “exploiting the efficient, borderless nature of crypto rails.”
“By blacklisting a well-known Chinese-language guarantee marketplace, the FCDO is addressing the commercial marketplaces that sustain scam operators with payment facilitation and marketing services,” it said.
Related: There’s more to crypto crime than meets the eye: What you need to know
Traditional financial systems, such as wire transfers, have long been exploited for money laundering and fraud, largely because of their scale and global reach.
The Financial Action Task Force estimates that 2% to 5% of global GDP is laundered through traditional financial systems, whereas Chainalysis estimates that less than 1% of crypto transactions are linked to illicit activity.
The US has also intensified sanctions targeting illicit crypto operations. Earlier this month, the Treasury Department sanctioned six individuals and two entities for their alleged roles in an IT worker fraud scheme orchestrated by North Korea, a state actor that frequently targets the crypto industry.
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ARK Invest is turning to Kalshi’s prediction-market data to sharpen its investment research, marking a notable step for how institutions can incorporate crowd-sourced probability signals into traditional financial workflows. The asset manager says it will use real-time market expectations from Kalshi to augment its macro and company-specific analyses, while also applying the data to risk management and hedging strategies. The move highlights a broader sector shift: prediction markets moving from niche crypto experiments toward actionable inputs for credible investment teams.
In a Kalshi statement, ARK will consume prediction-market outputs to gauge current expectations and blend them with its existing market-based research framework. Beyond tracking headline indicators, the data will inform what ARK’s researchers monitor—spanning trading activity, regulatory milestones, and notable scientific or technological breakthroughs. The goal is to obtain a more dynamic view of risk and opportunity as events unfold, rather than relying solely on lagging metrics or expert opinions.
Key takeaways
- ARK Invest will integrate Kalshi’s prediction-market data into its research and risk-management toolkit, using real-time market expectations to guide investment decisions.
- The collaboration signals growing institutional interest in prediction markets as a complementary data layer to traditional research, not just an alternative trading venue.
- Kalshi markets already cover a range of topics—such as macroeconomic indicators and corporate KPIs—and are live for a subset of subjects, according to the company’s leadership.
- Federal researchers and universities have previously highlighted Kalshi data as a potential input to macro policy and decision-making, underscoring the broader acceptance of such markets in academia and public institutions.
ARK’s use case: blending crowd wisdom with rigorous research
ARK Invest’s foray into using prediction-market data sits at the intersection of quantitative rigor and market-sentiment assessment. Cathie Wood, ARK’s founder and CEO, described the move as a natural evolution in financial research—one that brings a continuously updated measure of risk and probability into decision-making processes. Nick Grous, ARK’s research director, framed prediction markets as among the “purest expressions of risk around key economic and company-specific outcomes.”
The core value proposition for ARK, as outlined in Kalshi’s release, is to tap into high-frequency signals that reflect how participants price future events in real time. This can complement traditional indicators, which may lag or be slow to reveal shifts in expectations. For an investment team that emphasizes dynamic themes and rapid adaptation, the Kalshi feed could help identify turning points or validate the trajectory of a thesis before more conventional data points corroborate the narrative.
Kalshi notes that ARK will enlist markets on topics it is curious about—ranging from macroeconomic data to milestones in science and technology. While the company has highlighted ongoing tests and listings, ARK’s utilization underscores a broader trend: the ability to integrate structured prediction data within a research workflow that already leverages quantitative models, scenario analysis, and risk budgeting. The approach could also influence how ARK conducts portfolio hedging, potentially offering a forward-looking gauge of tail risk or event-driven catalysts that may not yet be priced into standard benchmarks.
Prediction markets in the institutional mainstream
The ARK-Kalshi collaboration arrives amid a wider institutional embrace of prediction-market data. Last year’s surge in interest highlighted these markets as a leading use case within the crypto space, with aggregate trading volumes regularly surpassing $10 billion per month. The growing attention isn’t confined to private firms; respected research bodies, including the Federal Reserve and Cornell University, have studied and employed prediction-market data to capture market sentiment and expectations with greater immediacy than traditional surveys or models can provide.
In recent research, U.S. Federal Reserve researchers argued that Kalshi data could offer a real-time, distributionally rich benchmark for macro expectations that would be difficult to obtain from conventional sources alone. They suggested such markets could augment policymakers’ understanding of the economy’s current pulse and help illuminate how participants price risks around inflation, growth, and labor trends. The sentiment within that work underscores why users like ARK view Kalshi as more than a novelty; it is a potential complement to the data stack that informs capital allocation and risk management.
Kalshi’s leadership has framed the platform as a practical testbed for institutional workflows. Tarek Mansour, Kalshi’s CEO, pointed to live markets—such as non-farm payrolls and macro-deficit indicators—as evidence that certain topics already have active, tradable signals. The company’s narrative aligns with a broader belief that prediction markets can distill diverse opinions into a quantified expectation, updated as new information arrives.
Beyond ARK, the literature and industry chatter around prediction markets have drawn attention to their use in real-world decision-making. In academic contexts, Polymarket and other platforms have been studied for how traders react to political events in real time, illustrating the potential of prediction-market data to reveal behavioral patterns during pivotal moments. While these findings are nuanced, they contribute to a growing understanding that prediction markets can function as a supplementary data feed for both private sector decision-makers and public institutions.
Ark’s collaboration also touches on a broader conversation about governance and transparency in data-driven investing. As more institutions seek to ground strategic bets in probabilistic forecasts, the need for rigorous data provenance, auditability, and methodological clarity grows. Kalshi’s publicly stated partnerships and the types of markets it lists provide a convenient case study for how such data streams could be integrated without compromising research integrity or risk controls.
What this means for readers and market participants
For investors and traders, ARK’s adoption signals a potential shift in how prediction-market inputs could become part of the evidence base that informs long-term theses and hedging decisions. If institutional usage scales, prediction-market data may gain more credibility as a complementary signal alongside earnings momentum, macro data points, and policy expectations. For builders and data scientists, the ARK-Kalshi partnership could encourage the development of standardized data pipelines, backtesting frameworks, and risk management protocols that incorporate real-time probability distributions into models and dashboards.
However, questions remain about the boundaries and reliability of such data. Real-time markets reflect the crowd’s judgment, which can be swayed by liquidity, incentives, or strategic trading. As ARK and others experiment with their own internal workflows, market observers will watch how Kalshi-data-driven signals perform in tandem with traditional analytics across different market regimes and macro scenarios. The evolving dialogue between market practitioners, researchers, and policymakers will likely shape how prediction-market data is validated, integrated, and regulated going forward.
ARK’s move also dovetails with a broader anxiety and opportunity surrounding crypto-native data ecosystems. While the Kalshi platform sits at the intersection of finance and prediction markets, its rising profile among established asset managers demonstrates how probabilistic forecasting mechanisms can transcend niche use cases and become a practical component of risk-aware investing. The next phase will hinge on the ability of institutions to operationalize these signals with transparent methodologies and auditable results, ensuring that the data remains informative rather than noisy in the face of volatility or shifting incentives.
For readers tracking adoption, the clearest takeaway is that prediction-market data is no longer a curiosity confined to speculative or retail-focused platforms. It is entering the toolbox of serious investment management, with ARK Invest’s partnership illustrating what it could look like when research, risk management, and market sentiment intersect in real time. The implications for portfolio construction, risk hedging, and scenario planning will depend on how widely institutions embrace, validate, and standardize the use of these signals in the months ahead.
ARK did not disclose a specific rollout date for the Kalshi data integration, but the collaboration underscores a growing appetite among leading investors to test how crowdsourced forecasts can inform forward-looking decisions in a disciplined, transparent way. As more institutions publish pilots and early findings, the industry will gain a clearer picture of whether prediction-market data can consistently augment, or even outperform, conventional signals in certain contexts.
Readers should watch for any formal case studies or performance benchmarks that ARK or Kalshi may publish, as such disclosures would help quantify the impact of prediction-market inputs on research timelines, risk metrics, and portfolio outcomes. The evolving narrative around these data streams is one to follow closely, given the potential to alter how investment teams think about probability, risk, and opportunity in rapidly changing markets.
As the week closes, the broader takeaway remains: prediction markets are moving from experimental corners of the crypto world into mainstream institutional workflows, where they can influence real-world decisions. The ARK-Kalshi partnership is a tangible milestone in that trajectory, inviting more questions about scalability, governance, and what investors should expect from crowd-based forecasts in the years ahead.
Readers interested in the original Kalshi announcement can explore the press release detailing ARK’s planned usage of the platform to enhance risk management and research workflows.
Ukraine has complicated President Donald Trump’s efforts to stabilize oil markets amid the Iran war, amplifying risks for financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.
For nearly a month, markets have been gripped by a single concern: the Iran war. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz – a critical oil chokepoint – have driven prices sharply higher, stoking fears of sticky inflation, a risk-off shift, and renewed Fed rate hikes.
To cool things down, the Trump administration quickly lifted sanctions on Russian crude for the short term, opening the tap to compensate for oil supply disruptions caused by the Iran war.
It came across as a solid plan to stabilize energy markets until Ukraine blew it up.
This week, Ukraine launched drone strikes on ports and refiners in Russia’s Leningrad, leading to what one observer described as “the most serious threat” to the country’s oil exports since Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The damage is significant, with roughly 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity offline. Oilprice.com editor Michael Kern described it as “a logistics problem first – and a supply problem second,” underscoring that moving oil to buyers is now as difficult as producing it.
“In conjunction with the war in the Middle East and de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent oil/LNG production outages, the Russian disruption adds a fresh element to already sky-high oil prices,” Kern noted.
In other words, oil prices may remain elevated longer than initially expected. For risk assets, including bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, that’s an issue because higher sticky energy prices could lead to sticky inflation, potentially putting pressure on global central banks to raise borrowing costs and drain liquidity.
Traders are already prepping for a potential Fed rate hike in the short term. According to Bloomberg, flows in the options market tied to overnight interest rates indicate traders are wagering on a rate increase within two weeks.
Taken together, these factors suggest bitcoin’s recent resilience may face tests, with the $65,000–$75,000 range vulnerable to a downside break.
At press time, bitcoin traded near $68,500, down nearly 2% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinDesk data. WTI oil, which slipped nearly 10% to $83.95 per barrel on Monday, has since bounced back to $93.50. Brent crude is once again trading above the $100 mark.
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