Bitcoin price slipped below $79,000 on Sep. 9 as weakening short-term momentum and liquidity clusters on both sides of the market raised the risk of a sharper move.

Bitcoin price struggles to hold $79,000

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price traded near $78,900 at the time of writing, down from an opening price of $81,271 on Sep. 4. The asset briefly fell to $78,455 during the latest daily session before buyers pushed it back toward $79,000.

The six-day pullback followed Bitcoin’s failed attempt to extend its rally above $81,000. Price reached a local high above $82,000 earlier in the period but could not hold those gains as macro concerns and leveraged liquidations weighed on demand.

Bitcoin’s broader daily structure remains constructive despite the decline. BTC is trading slightly above its 10-day simple moving average at $78,732, while the 20-day SMA is much lower at $70,242.

The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages are grouped between approximately $66,700 and $70,000. Bitcoin’s position above those longer-term indicators shows that the larger recovery has not broken down, even as short-term momentum cools.

Daily relative strength has also weakened. The RSI stands at 61.29, down from recent highs and below its signal average of 68.10. The reading remains above the neutral 50 level, but the decline suggests buyers have lost some momentum since BTC tested $82,000.

4-hour indicators show weak momentum

Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart presents a less favorable picture. BTC is trading below the Bollinger Band midpoint at $79,187, which now acts as immediate resistance.

The upper band is near $80,292, while the lower band sits at approximately $78,084. Price has moved toward the bottom half of the range after repeatedly failing to establish support above the midpoint.

A break below the lower band could expose the intraday low around $78,450, followed by the psychological $78,000 level. Buyers would need to reclaim $79,200 before attempting another move toward the upper band and the $80,000 mark.

The average directional index stands at 18.31 on the 4-hour chart. ADX readings below 20 generally indicate that the market lacks a strong trend, which supports the possibility of further sideways movement before a larger breakout.

Low trend strength does not identify the direction of the next move. However, it can leave Bitcoin vulnerable to sudden volatility when the price reaches concentrated areas of leveraged positions.

Liquidation heatmap puts $77,000 and $80,000 in focus

CoinGlass’ 24-hour liquidation heatmap shows several liquidity bands around Bitcoin’s current price. The nearest concentrations above the market appear between approximately $79,200 and $80,000.

A move into that area could force leveraged short positions to close, adding buy pressure and helping BTC retest $80,300. Further liquidity is visible around $80,500 and between $81,500 and $82,000.

Liquidity is also stacked below the market. The heatmap shows a large concentration near $78,000, followed by a brighter and potentially larger band around $77,000.

A break below $78,000 could therefore trigger long liquidations and accelerate a fall toward $77,000. Additional liquidity appears near $76,300, making that level relevant if the $77,000 area fails.

Market commentator Whale Factor also pointed to a “tug of war” around $80,000, citing a separate 30-day liquidation map. The analyst noted that leveraged positions are concentrated both above and below Bitcoin, creating conditions for a cascade in either direction.

Bearish divergence raises risk of a $76K retest

Crypto analyst Gerla identified a bearish divergence between Bitcoin’s price and RSI. According to the analyst, BTC may still sweep the $82,000 region and form a higher high, but RSI has recorded lower highs at the market’s recent peaks.

A bearish divergence forms when price reaches higher highs while a momentum indicator moves lower. Traders often view the pattern as a warning that an advance is losing strength, though it does not confirm a reversal by itself.

Gerla said the bearish setup would activate only after a confirmed break below channel support near $76,000. A move above $84,000 would weaken the bearish view, according to the analyst.

The chart levels create three immediate scenarios. Holding $78,000 could keep Bitcoin inside its current range, while a recovery above $79,200 would put $80,000–$80,300 back in play. A daily or sustained 4-hour break below $78,000 would increase the chance of a liquidity-driven move toward $77,000 and then $76,000.

For US traders, Treasury yields and expectations for Federal Reserve policy remain important external factors. Higher yields can reduce demand for risk assets, while any shift in rate expectations could add volatility to Bitcoin’s densely positioned derivatives market.

Bitcoin is therefore caught between long-term technical support and fading short-term momentum. The next confirmed break outside the $78,000–$80,300 range could determine whether BTC revisits $82,000 or extends its correction toward $76,000.

Japan’s Bitcoin treasury-focused firm Metaplanet is facing renewed scrutiny from shareholders after controversy erupted around the company’s “10th Series” executive option pool and the dilution mechanics tied to its ongoing BTC accumulation.

The dispute centers on how the pool was structured—set at 20% of fully diluted shares and designed to expand automatically as Metaplanet issued new shares to finance additional Bitcoin buys—prompting critics to argue that management’s incentives increased at the expense of existing holders.

Key takeaways

• Shareholders have challenged Metaplanet’s 10th Series executive option pool, arguing its built-in expansion led to significant dilution.
• Metaplanet says the pool was frozen at 319.5 million shares on Aug. 18, but critics claim the earlier growth still magnified dilution for existing shareholders.
• Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey defended the incentive design in posts on X, while pseudonymous shareholder “Bitcoin Pharaoh” alleged personal benefit from options and raised concerns about fairness.
• Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich said the company would review governance and compensation policies, after an update that the CEO exercised 92,000 shares from the 10th Series pool.
• Industry commentator Matthew Sigel said further exercise rights from the 10th Series should be frozen and replaced with a shareholder-approved plan tied primarily to BTC per fully diluted share.

Why the 10th Series option pool became contentious

Backlash intensified as multiple Metaplanet shareholders questioned the design and outcomes of the company’s 10th Series executive option pool. According to the dispute described by shareholders on X, the pool was established to represent 20% of fully diluted shares and to automatically expand as new shares were issued to fund Metaplanet’s Bitcoin accumulation.

Critics point to the scale of the growth. One shareholder claim summarized the change as the pool expanding from roughly 46 million shares to 319.5 million shares. While that characterization reflects the objections raised in social posts, Metaplanet’s response provides the key operational detail: the company said it froze the pool at 319.5 million shares on Aug. 18.

In a Tuesday X post, Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey defended the model, arguing that allowing management a 20% slice of the cap table over five years “isn’t some crazy number.” Bailey also wrote that he has been invested in Metaplanet “since day zero,” framing his support as long-term alignment rather than short-term compensation.

Responses from Metaplanet and shareholder pressure for transparency

Following the public debate, some shareholders said they are asking Metaplanet to cancel additional shares created from the 10th Series changes and to provide more transparency around future decisions. The criticism is not only about dilution in theory, but about the sequence of how the pool expanded while new share issuance financed Bitcoin purchases.

Metaplanet acknowledged in an Aug. 18 notice that expanding the share pool “amplifies the dilution borne by existing shareholders.” That admission is central to the contention: even if a freeze stops further automatic expansion, shareholders argue the damage had already accrued.

One pseudonymous shareholder, “Bitcoin Pharaoh,” also alleged that Bailey personally benefited from Metaplanet stock options, claiming Bailey received 300,000 options at a strike price of 105 Japanese yen when Metaplanet’s stock was reportedly trading at 510 yen. The allegation was presented as part of the shareholder critique, emphasizing perceived incentive misalignment and potential conflicts around board-related roles. Bailey did not provide a detailed rebuttal within the text provided, but he did publicly defend the overarching executive option structure.

CEO Gerovich: governance review and the 10th Series exercise update

Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich said the company would review governance and compensation policies and share updates once the work is complete. In a Sunday X post, Gerovich also sought to distance himself from shareholder discussions tied to MMXX Ventures, explaining that he is a significant but non-majority shareholder in MMXX’s parent company and that he does not hold an executive role.

Separately, on Aug. 31, Metaplanet revealed that the CEO exercised 92,000 shares from the 10th Series executive options pool. The exercise detail matters in this context because it illustrates that the incentive program in question moved from a theoretical cap-table mechanic into completed transactions tied to company performance and/or capital-market actions.

As the controversy escalated, Metaplanet’s earlier documentation and the Aug. 18 freeze appear to be the company’s attempt to address the immediate dilution concern by halting further pool expansion. However, critics continue to argue that transparency and fairness still require broader remedy—particularly if earlier expansions increased dilution beyond what holders expected.

External calls to freeze remaining rights and replace the structure

Outside commentary has added pressure by reframing what a better incentive approach could look like. VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, argued in a Wednesday X post that Metaplanet should “freeze” further exercise rights from the 10th Series option pool. Sigel also suggested holders voluntarily surrender the excess rights and weigh additional options tied to shares that were already exercised.

Most notably, Sigel proposed replacing “Series 10” with a shareholder-approved five-year incentive plan tied primarily to BTC per fully diluted share. That suggestion speaks directly to the core criticism: that tying the incentive to a cap-table percentage, rather than directly to Bitcoin ownership metrics normalized by fully diluted share count, can create outcomes where management’s equity gain does not map cleanly to shareholders’ contribution after dilution effects are considered.

At the time of Cointelegraph’s report, it indicated a request for comment from Metaplanet on whether the company would consider freezing remaining shares in the executive pool. The market also appeared to react to the debate and corporate updates: Metaplanet shares closed higher in Wednesday’s Tokyo trading, trimming their five-day decline to roughly 16.3%, according to Yahoo Finance.

For investors, the next key signal to watch is whether Metaplanet’s announced governance review results in concrete changes—particularly around whether any remaining 10th Series rights will be frozen and whether a new, shareholder-approved incentive framework is put forward and clearly tied to Bitcoin per fully diluted share rather than automatic cap-table expansion.

Bitcoin appears to be showing signs of a recovery in on-chain profitability despite the broader market still wrestling with uncertainty around where this cycle’s lows may ultimately form. A widely watched measure—spent output profit ratio (SOPR)—has remained above its breakeven level for an unusually long stretch in 2026, echoing patterns typically seen earlier during bull-market rebounds.

At the same time, analyst David Puell cautioned in a recent interview that SOPR’s improvement may not be enough by itself to conclude a bear-market floor is already in place. His view suggests that investors should respect the possibility of additional downside even as on-chain behavior turns more constructive.

Key takeaways

• According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s SOPR has stayed above the breakeven threshold of 1 since Aug. 19, currently around 1.002.
• The current three-week run is the longest bullish SOPR streak of 2026, a pattern often associated with early bull-market recovery conditions.
• Checkonchain’s wallet cohort analysis suggests UTXO profitability is beginning to resemble bull-market dynamics, including more profit-taking that doesn’t immediately flip back to losses.
• Despite the SOPR rebound, David Puell says investors still need more evidence before assuming the next bear-market floor is already set.

SOPR’s longest bullish streak in 2026

Crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin’s SOPR has been above its breakeven level of 1 since Aug. 19. SOPR evaluates whether coins spent on-chain are moving at a gain or a loss relative to the price basis at their prior transaction—so values above 1 generally indicate that spent outputs are more often being realized in profit.

In the current reading, SOPR sits near 1.002, a level slightly above breakeven but important because the metric tends to oscillate tightly around 1 for extended periods. What stands out here is duration: the measure has remained bullish for three full weeks, marking the longest such streak recorded so far this year.

That timing matters for traders because SOPR doesn’t just reflect a one-off bounce—it can signal whether the market is transitioning from “rally then sell” behavior typical of bear phases to “buy-the-dip” patterns often observed in earlier bull recoveries.

Wallet cohort analysis points to a profit-taking shift

SOPR can be further divided by wallet cohort, helping distinguish whether profitability is improving primarily among newer participants or whether longer-term holders are also spending in ways that suggest broad-based recovery. As noted by CryptoQuant-linked commentary, breaking SOPR down by investor groups can clarify whether on-chain gains are being concentrated or becoming more generalized.

Building on this type of analysis, Checkonchain highlighted short-term holder (STH) SOPR—tracking profitability for coins held for up to six months without selling. In a weekend post on X, Checkonchain said the market’s structure is starting to resemble early bull-market recovery behavior:

“In bear markets, rallies back into profit tend to get sold. In bull markets, short sharp moves below break-even tend to become buy-the-dip setups. The current structure is starting to look more like those early bull-market recoveries.”

The implication is not that drawdowns are impossible, but that the market may be failing to revert quickly to loss-making conditions after moving back toward profitability. If that continues, it can strengthen the case that the market is shifting toward more sustainable accumulation rather than transient bounce dynamics.

David Puell: SOPR helps, but downside risk remains

Even with the improving SOPR trend, David Puell—an investor and portfolio manager known for creating the Puell multiple indicator—stressed in an interview with CryptoQuant released on Sept. 4 that investors should not assume the next bear-market bottom has already been established.

Puell’s stance came as the BTC/USD market has been holding a local range around $80,000. He argued that more evidence is required before changing his long-term bias toward an already-confirmed recovery. When asked about how Bitcoin’s 25% August upside might play out heading into Q4, Puell suggested further upside is the less likely outcome and framed his position as a downside risk.

In his words, “In our view, as of now, we leave it as a downside risk.” He also emphasized what he sees as the key prerequisite for altering his outlook: SOPR needs to remain above 1 for a longer period, alongside the broader requirement that investors are “realizing profits consistently without price going back to a new low.”

Importantly, Puell’s thesis doesn’t rely solely on on-chain profitability. He pointed to a technical requirement as well—Bitcoin needs to start printing a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on weekly time frames. Cointelegraph previously reported that this pattern remains absent on weekly charts, reinforcing the idea that on-chain improvement may currently be running ahead of price structure.

From “bear market over” to “prove it”: what to watch next

The SOPR recovery also follows earlier comments from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who—based on readings from the platform’s Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator—described the bear market as already “over.” That earlier claim, contrasted with Puell’s more cautious requirements, highlights a recurring tension in crypto market analysis: on-chain signals can improve before price confirms the new regime, and different indicators can lead at different speeds.

What readers should focus on now is whether the SOPR streak turns into a sustained shift rather than a temporary excursion. Puell effectively sets a bar: SOPR must hold above breakeven for longer while price does not revisit fresh cycle lows. Traders and investors should also watch for whether weekly price action begins to display the higher-highs and higher-lows structure Puell says is still missing.

If SOPR remains bullish and weekly structure eventually strengthens, the current on-chain pattern could transition from “early recovery resemblance” to a stronger confirmation of a cycle change. If instead SOPR fades back toward losses while price fails to build trend, the market may be demonstrating the kind of bear-market volatility where profit-taking doesn’t last.