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Critical Bitcoin Metric Just Hit Its Lowest Level Since the FTX Collapse

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How Will Markets React to $3B Crypto Options Expiring Today?


A key technical metric measuring Bitcoin’s value is at its lowest level since the bear market in 2022.

Bitcoin’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) data, which indicates how overvalued or undervalued the asset is relative to its normal “zero-sum game,” is at the same level as late 2022, right after the FTX collapse, Santiment reported on Thursday.

When the 365-day MVRV was oversold and severely negative following the FTX collapse, Bitcoin prices climbed 67% in the following three months, it added.

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“This is typical when average returns are significantly below the average value for what is historically expected,” it stated.

However, macroeconomic news and “polarized opinions about Strategy’s aggressive accumulation” have been changing the landscape of cryptocurrency, noted the analysts who concluded that a big move may be ahead.

“When this powerful indicator reveals a divergence we haven’t seen in over 3 years, pay attention.”

A 67% gain from current prices would send BTC back to $116,000, but that is highly unlikely in the current bear market. In fact, analysts believe that there will be months of consolidation before a potential major move in the price.

Early Signs of Stabilization

Glassnode also leaned slightly bullish in its weekly on-chain report, stating “Bitcoin is showing early signs of stabilisation as ETF inflows return and spot demand recovers.”

BTC has been consolidating between $63,000 and $72,500 for over a month, repeatedly failing to hold above $70,000, it noted, adding that the price is sitting between two key levels: the Realized Price at $54,400 as support and the “True Market Mean” which is serving as resistance at $78,400.

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There are also some stabilizing signals, including positive inflows for US spot Bitcoin ETFs, spot market buyers beginning to absorb selling pressure, perpetual futures funding turning negative, and options market implied volatility easing, suggesting reduced immediate fear.

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“The market appears to be shifting from forced deleveraging toward early stabilisation, with scope for recovery if spot demand continues to build.”

Crypto Market Outlook

Total market capitalization is flat on the day, at the same level as this time yesterday, $2.45 trillion.

Bitcoin topped $71,000 again in late trading in the US, but tanked in the morning Asian session back to $69,400, mirroring yesterday’s trading pattern.

Ether prices are largely unchanged, hovering just above $2,000, while the altcoins remain dormant.

“Crypto sentiment remains weak, and trading volumes are near their lows,” reported 10x Research on Thursday.

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Crypto World

Democrats Promise to Oversee Reported DOJ Probe Into Binance

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Democrats Promise to Oversee Reported DOJ Probe Into Binance

A group of Democratic senators say they will oversee a reported Justice Department investigation into possible Iran-related sanctions violations on the crypto exchange Binance.

Senators Chris Van Hollen, Elizabeth Warren and Ruben Gallego said in a joint statement on Thursday that they “will conduct oversight to ensure the Department of Justice conducts a serious investigation into Binance and holds the company accountable for any wrongdoing.”

The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter, that the Justice Department was investigating Iran’s possible use of Binance to evade sanctions.

“Binance has an established track record of putting profits ahead of the law,” the senators said, adding that the report raised “serious concerns that the firm is again violating US sanctions laws, recklessly helping bankroll the activities of terrorist groups connected to Iran.”

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Binance did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but a company spokesperson previously told Cointelegraph it was “not aware of any investigations. But as always, we are collaborating with regulators and law enforcement to investigate the facts.

The senators said that last month, they asked US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Attorney General Pam Bondi to investigate Binance over concerns about the movement of Iran-linked funds.

Binance filed defamation suit against WSJ

Binance sued the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday, claiming a report it published on Feb. 23 was defamatory.

The report said that Binance fired staff who flagged $1 billion worth of crypto tied to sanctioned Iranian entities, including Yemen’s Houthis and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

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Binance denied that it had stopped any investigation and said the Wall Street Journal’s report was false. 

Related: Binance claims ‘full and complete legal victory‘ in Alabama court

Binance had pleaded guilty in November 2023 to violating US anti-money-laundering and sanctions laws, paying a record $4.3 billion fine and agreeing to operate under US oversight.