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Crypto World

Crypto Market Loses $1.5 Trillion in Two Quarters: Is the Worst Still Ahead for Bitcoin?

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Crypto markets shed over $1.5 trillion across Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, with Bitcoin driving nearly 60% of total losses.
  • Gold outperformed Bitcoin by nearly 40% in recent months, a strong signal that large capital favors safety over risk assets.
  • Bitcoin has traded flat between $65K and $69K for weeks despite rising oil prices and growing geopolitical tensions globally.
  • BTC dominance and the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio remain the two most critical metrics to watch for early signs of market recovery.

The crypto market sits at a crossroads as Bitcoin consolidates within a narrow range. Over the past two quarters, digital assets lost over $1.5 trillion in total market value.

Institutional capital has pulled back, and macro forces are weighing on risk appetite. Traders are watching carefully as the market weighs potential recovery against further downside, with conditions outside crypto likely determining the next major move.

Bitcoin’s Recent Losses Point to Broader Institutional Retreat

Bitcoin led the market lower across Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Combined, those two quarters wiped out roughly 45% in value from the broader market. BTC accounted for nearly 60% of total losses recorded during that period.

That detail changes how analysts read the sell-off. When Bitcoin drives the drawdown, it is not retail traders dumping speculative tokens. It reflects real capital reducing exposure across the entire asset class.

As MR Black noted on X, “When BTC is leading the drawdown, it isn’t a sector rotation. It isn’t retail panic selling memecoins.” That observation carries weight, especially for investors trying to time a re-entry into the market.

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Gold’s Outperformance Sends a Clear Risk-Off Signal

The XAU/BTC ratio has shifted nearly 40% in gold’s favor over recent months. Gold offers no yield and carries no technological narrative. Its strength signals that large capital holders are choosing preservation over growth.

That ratio matters because it reflects institutional psychology, not retail sentiment. When the biggest players move into gold, it means confidence in risk assets remains low. Crypto has not yet shown the kind of recovery that would pull that capital back.

However, analysts note that this ratio could become one of the first signs of a turnaround. When it begins reversing, it may indicate that risk appetite is returning and that institutional money is ready to rotate back into Bitcoin.

Sideways Price Action Raises Questions About What Comes Next

Bitcoin has traded between roughly $65,000 and $69,000 for several weeks. That range has held despite rising geopolitical tension, higher oil prices, and growing inflation concerns. Normally, any of those factors would trigger sharp movement in crypto markets.

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The muted reaction suggests one of two things. Either the market has already absorbed much of the uncertainty, or it remains so undecided that it needs a strong external trigger to break either way. That ambiguity makes directional calls difficult right now.

BTC dominance remains a key metric to track through this period. When dominance rises, capital clusters in Bitcoin and altcoins suffer.

When it falls, capital rotates into higher-risk assets, and historically that rotation has preceded some of the strongest alt-season runs in a given cycle.

The path forward for crypto depends heavily on macro developments in the coming weeks. If oil cools and geopolitical risks ease, the current consolidation could prove to be a base for recovery.

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If conditions worsen, further downside remains possible, with altcoins likely absorbing the most pressure. Traders watching signals beyond the price chart may be better positioned for whatever move comes next.

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Crypto World

Crypto Jumps 2.5% Amid Trump-Iran Deadline Threats

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Crypto Jumps 2.5% Amid Trump-Iran Deadline Threats

Crypto markets bounced 2.5% as US President Donald Trump sent mixed signals over a potential deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, including reports of a possible ceasefire that could permanently end the war. 

In an expletive-laden post on the Truth Social platform on Sunday, Trump threatened that Iran would be “living in Hell” if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.

However, he also acknowledged in a Fox News interview that Iran is “negotiating now” and expressed optimism about a “good chance” of a deal within 24 hours.

Total market capitalization has climbed about $70 billion, or 2.5%, to an 11-day high of $2.44 trillion in early trading on Monday on the news. Bitcoin tapped $69,500 on Coinbase, according to TradingView.

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The small jump has led to total liquidations of around $255 million over 24 hours, 73% of them being short positions, according to data from CoinGlass. 

Trump’s comments come after more than a month of war, contributing to surging global oil prices that some fear could lead to a global economic recession. 

Trump initially gave Iran a 10-day window to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but his latest post suggests that Iran now has until Tuesday to reopen the waterway, or the US would attack Iran’s power plants and bridges. 

“There will be nothing like it!!! Open the fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH!” he said. 

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Source: Truth Social

A potential deal within 24 hours

Despite the aggressive rhetoric, Trump also acknowledged that Iran is “negotiating now” and expressed optimism about a “good chance” of a deal within 24 hours.

He also said, “If they don’t make a deal and fast, I’m considering blowing everything up and taking over the oil.” 

Related: New Bitcoin price lows ‘matter of time’ says trader with BTC stuck at $67K

A report from Axios, meanwhile, suggests that the US, Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms of a 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of the war, adding further mixed signals.

Oil prices surge, adding inflation pressure

The ongoing war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed crude oil prices back up to about $112 per barrel on Monday morning. 

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The Kobeissi Letter predicted that if current levels are sustained for another seven weeks, US Consumer Price Index-related inflation will rise to around 3.7%.

Meanwhile, Americans have spent an additional $240 million per day on fuel costs since the Iran war began Feb. 28, it added. 

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