Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) staged a cautious recovery, rising roughly 10% from a Saturday retest near $63,000 as traditional markets moved in a contrasting direction amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The uptick offered a measure of relief for bulls, yet a closer inspection of the derivatives landscape revealed a more tepid appetite for risk among large players. Futures demand deteriorated to levels not seen since 2024, even as other channels indicated ongoing institutional exposure. Across major exchanges, open interest hovered around $32 billion on Sunday, a 20% retreat from a month earlier, signaling that leverage had begun to unwind even as traders remained engaged in the market.

The immediate price action has not resolved the longer-term tug-of-war between bulls and bears. While spot markets showed resilience, the futures market has shown signs of cooling off. The combination of a price rebound and waning futures interest paints a nuanced picture: institutions appear to be staying put, but with less aggressive positioning than in prior cycles. This divergence underscores a broader theme in crypto markets—steadfast core demand from long-term holders and institutions coexists with episodic volatility that tests short-term trading appetite.

The narrative around where institutional capital stands is further complicated by evidence from the options and futures segments. The average activity in Bitcoin futures remains robust in some respects, with notable players continuing to demonstrate an ongoing, if selective, appetite for exposure. Data from market analytics providers illustrate how the market is balancing risk and reward: while price momentum has faded from peak levels, the structural support from large holders and listed companies remains intact. In particular, the presence of significant on-chain holdings by publicly listed companies and steady ETF inflows suggests that institutions continue to anchor demand for Bitcoin even when leverage cools.

Market reaction and key details

The futures landscape shows a divergence between price action and leverage. The Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest on major exchanges declined to $32 billion on Sunday, marking a 20% decrease from the prior month. Even after adjusting for price moves, the measure signals cooling demand for long exposure in the near term. This cooling is not necessarily a retreat by institutions; rather, it may reflect a interim reassessment as market participants wait for clearer catalysts. In parallel, the annualized premium on Bitcoin monthly futures slipped to 2%, the lowest in roughly a year, underscoring a shift away from the exuberant bullish tilt that characterized earlier phases of the cycle.

The premium, or basis rate, for monthly futures has historically tended to run higher than the spot price as a compensation for the longer settlement horizon. A typical neutral range would be roughly 5% to 10%. The fact that the basis has lingered around the 2% level for an extended period—spanning a year that included a 50% rally between April and May 2025—speaks to a market that has not consistently priced in outsized bullish momentum in the near term. This pattern aligns with a broader sentiment shift as investors weigh macro uncertainty and regulatory signals against the asset’s fixed-supply characteristics.

Despite these indicators, Bitcoin’s performance relative to traditional risk-on assets remains mixed. Bitcoin has underperformed Gold and equity indices in certain periods, prompting a recalibration of expectations among risk assets. However, there is still substantial evidence of ongoing institutional involvement. Bitcoin ETFs, for instance, trade in excess of $3 billion daily on average, a metric that highlights persistent demand from some of the world’s largest mutual and pension fund managers. This ETF activity provides a floor of demand that buffers the market against abrupt, full-on selling pressure.

On the on-chain front, publicly listed companies continue to accumulate Bitcoin, reinforcing a structural bid from corporate treasuries. Notable holders include Strategy (MSTR US), MARA Holdings (MARA US), XXI (XXI US), and Metaplanet (MPLTF US). In total, more than $79 billion in Bitcoin sit on-chain with these entities, a level that argues against a wholesale retreat by institutions even if leverage is temporarily resting. Countries such as Bhutan, El Salvador, and the United Arab Emirates have also pursued exposure to Bitcoin, signaling a broader, albeit selective, alignment of public sector and corporate actors with the asset class.

Looking at derivatives more granularly, odds and hedges within the options market portray a resilient backdrop. The put-to-call premium for Bitcoin options has remained relatively tepid, hovering near 0.7, indicating a tilt toward upside bets rather than extensive bearish plays. This dynamic persisted even after a brief uptick in demand for bearish strategies on a single trading day, suggesting that the market did not sustain distress or systemic risk fears despite the recent volatility. The overarching message from the derivatives data is one of guarded resilience: hedging activity remains present, but there is no clear signal of a structural, multi-month downturn.

The breadth of activity in the CME space further strengthens the sense that institutions have not exited the market. Open interest in Bitcoin futures on CME remains a meaningful indicator of institutional engagement, with around $7.5 billion still outstanding—a figure that underscores ongoing activity even as other indicators show cautious positioning. The balance between sell-side pressure and corresponding buy-side commitments continues to hold, implying that the market remains in a state of negotiated risk rather than a wholesale capitulation.

Taken together, the data points paint a picture of a market that is maneuvering through a transitional phase. Prices can still move higher as buyers re-enter on dips, but the persistent ceiling around prior all-time highs and the current fragility of some bullish signals suggest that any advance will likely require new catalysts—be it macro developments, regulatory clarity, or significant ETF inflows—to sustain momentum over the medium term. In this environment, Bitcoin remains a compelling case study in how a fixed-supply asset interacts with diversified institutional demand, market maturity, and evolving governance around digital assets.

Market context: The current stretch sits at the intersection of evolving macro dynamics, ETF flows, and a still-developing institutional landscape for digital assets. While price action has improved, the rhythm of hedges, open interest, and basis rates points to a market that is absorbing shocks more gracefully than in earlier cycles, aided by steady on-chain and ETF-backed demand and a continued, selective institutional footprint.

Why it matters

The ongoing interplay between price performance and derivatives signals matters for traders, investors, and builders in the crypto space. A sustained price rally absent corresponding growth in futures open interest would risk overheating risk controls; conversely, a sustained level of open interest alongside a steady price path would indicate durable institutional interest. The presence of large corporate holders and persistent ETF inflows punctuates the story: institutions are not pulling out, even if they are not aggressively leveraging, and this could influence how market participants price risk, allocate capital, and plan for liquidity in stressed conditions.

From a systemic perspective, the divergence between spot strength and derivatives caution underscores a nuanced market maturity. As crypto markets evolve, the willingness of major funds and companies to allocate crypto exposure—through direct balance-sheet purchases, public equity-linked holdings, or ETF participation—shapes a pathway toward broader, steadier adoption. The data also suggest that while the friction points—volatility, basis rates, and short-term momentum—may persist, the underlying demand from institutional layers remains a critical anchor for liquidity and price discovery in a market that still holds a relatively small share of global financial allocations.

What to watch next

• Monitor CME open interest and overall futures activity for the next 2–4 weeks to gauge whether institutions maintain exposure or begin to recalibrate risk after recent volatility.
• Watch Bitcoin’s price action around key support levels (e.g., $60k) to see if the current bounce sustains or falters.
• Track ETF inflows and new listings to assess whether institutional demand seeds a renewed price floor or accelerates upside momentum.
• Observe on-chain accumulation trends by publicly listed companies and major corporate holders for signs of renewed balance-sheet strategy shifts.
• Follow regulatory developments and macro catalysts that could reframe risk sentiment for digital assets and related products.

Sources & verification

• Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest data from CoinGlass showing $32 billion, down 20% from a month prior.
• Bitcoin monthly futures annualized premium data from Laevitas.ch indicating a 2% level—the lowest in a year.
• Information on Bitcoin ETFs trading over $3 billion per day on average and the involvement of large mutual/pension fund managers.
• On-chain and corporate holdings context, including public-company BTC ownership (Strategy/MSTR, MARA, XXI, MPLTF).
• Derivatives signals, including put-to-call premiums near 0.7 on Deribit (source: Laevitas.ch and Deribit data).

TLDR

• Peter Schiff reacted to Michael Saylor’s latest Bitcoin purchase with a sarcastic congratulatory message.
• Michael Saylor announced that Strategy acquired 3,015 Bitcoin for about $204.1 million.
• Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings reached 720,737 Bitcoin after the new acquisition.
• Peter Schiff argued that Saylor continued to average down a losing trade during market volatility.
• Schiff claimed that gold continued to outperform Bitcoin and traded above $5,400.

The market saw a new debate today as Michael Saylor expanded his Bitcoin holdings with another large purchase, and the move quickly drew a sharp reaction from Peter Schiff, and both sides repeated their long-held views as community discussions grew. The announcement detailed a fresh acquisition of 3,015 BTC, and the news pushed new conversations across trading circles. Reactions surfaced fast as both supporters and critics responded with firm and clear messages.

Peter Schiff Challenges Saylor After New BTC Move

Peter Schiff issued a short message that referenced Saylor’s latest move, and he framed it with clear sarcasm. He wrote that Saylor “brought Strategy’s average price back under $76,000,” and the statement spread fast.

He argued that Saylor continued “averaging down a losing trade,” and he claimed the firm faced growing unrealized losses. He added that gold kept trading higher when compared with Bitcoin and kept pushing his point.

He repeated that gold traded above $5,400 and suggested Saylor could have directed the purchase toward gold instead. He stated his view plainly and kept his long-running position unchanged.

The crypto community responded with strong comments, and users defended Saylor’s strategy with confidence. They pointed to recent activity and said the purchase reinforced trust among smaller buyers.

Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings With New Purchase

Saylor confirmed that Strategy acquired 3,015 BTC for about $204.1 million, and he released the update online. He reported an average purchase price of about $67,700 per coin.

The firm now holds 720,737 BTC worth about $54.77 billion, and Saylor repeated his focus on long-term value. He said Strategy continued to follow its chosen plan.

Community members highlighted the new average cost of $75,985 per coin and shared charts showing the updated levels. Traders echoed Saylor’s stance and compared the numbers with current price action.

Saylor also repeated his outlook and said Bitcoin could move above $200,000 soon. He pushed this view as part of his ongoing public comments.

Market Reactions Grow After Latest BTC Announcement

Users linked Saylor’s repeated purchases with increased confidence across smaller trading groups. They argued the move added fresh energy to ongoing discussions.

Commentators responded with mixed views and tracked charts that compared Bitcoin with gold prices. They used new metrics and pointed to changing ratios.

Analysts said the timing of the new purchase placed more attention on Bitcoin’s short-term movement. They examined updated values and watched price behavior closely.

Saylor continued to promote his forecast as he shared data on long-term adoption. He kept pointing to the expanding global interest.

New figures from the purchase circulated through crypto channels and formed the core of ongoing conversations. Updates included fresh calculations tied to the Strategy’s holdings.

TLDR:

• Solana Mobile shipped 200,000+ devices across Saga and Seeker, generating over $5B in onchain volume.
• The SMS stack integrates with Visa, Stripe, PayPal, and Western Union on Solana’s live financial rails.
• Stablecoin volume on blockchains hit $27.6T in 2024, surpassing combined Visa and Mastercard totals.
• Over 75,000 users claimed SKR at launch; 46% staked immediately, signaling strong early retention.

Solana Mobile unveiled its Solana Mobile Stack for Android device manufacturers at MWC 2026 in Barcelona. The modular toolkit connects handsets to Solana’s blockchain infrastructure at the hardware level. 

It follows the shipment of over 200,000 devices and $5 billion in onchain transaction volume. The company now targets OEMs seeking recurring revenue beyond device sales.

Solana Mobile Stack Brings Hardware Crypto Wallets to Android Manufacturers

According to a press release, the stack bundles three core components: Seed Vault, Seeker Wallet, and the SKR token. 

Seed Vault integrates with a device’s existing secure element and trusted execution environment. Users authenticate via biometrics, similar to tap-to-pay. No seed phrases or third-party custodians are involved.

Seeker Wallet sits on top, giving users the ability to send, receive, buy, and sell digital assets. Peer-to-peer transfers and cross-border payments run at near-zero cost. 

Payment networks including Visa, Stripe, Western Union, and PayPal already operate on Solana. That means users connect to live financial rails from day one.

The stack is modular and opt-in. According to the official press release from Barcelona, it does not interfere with Google Mobile Services, payments certification, or Android security approvals. OEMs can deploy it by region, SKU, or product line. No platform fragmentation risk applies.

MediaTek, the leading smartphone chip vendor by global shipment volume, has opened its development platform to Solana Mobile. 

The stack runs production-ready on MediaTek Dimensity chipsets. Qualcomm chipset support is also included. Trustonic’s Kinibi TEE architecture is integrated for GlobalPlatform-compliant security.  

SMS Production Data and OEM Revenue Model Detailed at MWC 2026

Solana Mobile has six-plus months of real-world data from its Seeker device. The network reports 85,000-plus weekly active wallets and over $5 billion in onchain volume. 

More than 500 apps are published on the Solana dApp Store. Around 4,000 active developers are building across the ecosystem.

Devices have shipped to 50 countries. The US, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea lead sales. Solana reports 50 to 150 million monthly active addresses on its blockchain, per the press release.

Revenue sharing is built into the model. OEMs earn on transaction fees, staking commissions, and ecosystem activity as their installed base grows. The SKR token launched with over 75,000 claimants. Of those, 46% staked their tokens immediately.

Stablecoin transaction volume on blockchains reached $27.6 trillion in 2024, according to GSMA data cited in the announcement.

That figure exceeded the combined volumes of Visa and Mastercard. Mobile money transactions in emerging markets alone totalled $1.68 trillion that same year.

Regional deployment strategies differ. Emerging markets like India, Brazil, and Mexico focus on stablecoins and yield.

Developed Asia emphasizes self-custody and portfolio tools. Europe targets stablecoin yield and bank connectivity.

PayPay, a SoftBank Corp-backed payments company that owns a 40% stake in Binance Japan, is seeking to raise as much as $1.1 billion in a U.S. initial public offering, Reuters reported Monday.

The Tokyo-based company and a selling shareholder plan to offer 55 million American depositary shares priced between $17 and $20 each, according to the report. At the top end of that range, the offering would value PayPay at more than $10 billion.

PayPay is Japan’s largest cashless payments provider, with more than 70 million registered users. The company’s app allows consumers to make mobile payments at stores, transfer money and manage digital balances, as Japan steadily shifts away from cash.

The shares are expected to trade on the Nasdaq under the symbol “PAYP.” The listing was initially slated to launch before markets opened on Monday but was postponed after global markets were rattled by this weekend’s attack on Iran, Reuters reported earlier.

The IPO comes as fintech firms test investor appetite for new listings amid volatile equity markets and rising geopolitical risk. A successful debut would mark one of the larger Japanese listings in the U.S. in recent years and provide SoftBank with another publicly traded asset tied to its broader digital finance strategy.

PayPay moved deeper into crypto through a capital and business alliance with Binance Japan in October. The partnership aimed to link digital payments with crypto, letting Binance Japan users fund purchases and withdraw proceeds through PayPay Money. A representative for Binance did not respond to a request for comment in time for publication.

XRP price continues to trade under a prolonged downtrend that has limited sustained upside for months. The altcoin has repeatedly failed to reclaim key resistance levels. While short-term sentiment shows mild improvement, the broader macro structure remains tilted toward caution.

Recent on-chain developments introduce a complex dynamic. Whale accumulation suggests confidence in a rebound. At the same time, profit-taking activity and weakening network growth highlight structural risks that could cap recovery attempts.

XRP Whales Are Buying

Large XRP holders appear committed to accumulation despite challenging market conditions. Throughout February, addresses holding more than 100,000 XRP increased their collective ownership. These wallets now control 83.7% of the total XRP supply.

This concentration indicates strong conviction among high-capital participants. Whales often accumulate during consolidation phases to position for future upside. Their buying suggests expectations of price recovery rather than imminent distribution. Sustained accumulation can reduce circulating supply and stabilize volatility.

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Bearish Signals Appear

However, early signs of profit-taking are emerging on-chain. The network realized a profit and loss metric surged to $207 million over the past 24 hours. This marks the first significant wave of profit booking in nearly a month.

While moderate profit realization is healthy for market structure, accelerated selling could undermine bullish setups. If short-term gains motivate broader distribution, XRP’s recovery may stall. Monitoring realized profit trends will be critical for assessing sustained upside potential.

New address momentum paints a more cautious macro picture. This indicator compares monthly (red) new address growth against yearly (blue) trends. When monthly growth falls below yearly averages, it signals contraction in network activity.

Since early December 2025, XRP’s monthly new address growth has remained below yearly levels. This divergence reflects declining on-chain engagement and reduced network utilization. Weak onboarding often correlates with slower capital inflows.

Persistent contraction limits organic demand. Without consistent expansion in active addresses, price recovery becomes dependent on existing holders rather than new participants. Historical data show that prolonged divergence can suppress rallies until growth normalizes.

Reversal of this trend would signal improving fundamentals. A rise in monthly new addresses above yearly averages would indicate renewed adoption. Until that shift occurs, macro fundamentals remain fragile despite whale optimism.

XRP Price Downtrend Persists

XRP is trading at $1.34 at the time of writing, hovering directly above critical support at the same level. The altcoin remains capped below $1.47 resistance. A descending trendline active since early 2026 continues to restrict upward movement.

If bearish momentum strengthens, XRP could lose the $1.34 support. Combined with increasing profit-taking, such a breakdown may push the price toward $1.28. Further weakness could extend losses to $1.21, reinforcing the prevailing downtrend structure.

Conversely, stabilization in realized profits would support consolidation above $1.34. Holding this level may weaken the descending resistance line. A decisive breakout above $1.47 would invalidate the bearish thesis. Sustained momentum could then propel XRP toward $1.58, marking a structural shift in market sentiment.

A New York court has dismissed a class action lawsuit against Uniswap Labs, underscoring the decentralized nature of the protocol and the challenges of holding developers accountable for third-party misuse.

The ruling, delivered by Judge Katherine Polk Failla, emphasizes that Uniswap Labs cannot be held liable for fraudulent activities conducted by third parties on their platform, drawing parallels to Venmo or Zelle regarding user misuse.

The court’s decision involved dismissing federal claims with prejudice and state-law claims without prejudice, further reinforcing the legal standing of smart contract developers. This ruling follows the affirmation by the Second Circuit Court of Appeals, highlighting that creators of smart contracts are not liable for third-party misconduct.

Founded by Hayden Adams in 2018, Uniswap decentralized exchange on Ethereum that pioneered the Automated Market Maker (AMM) model. The platform has been at the forefront of the DeFi movement, providing a marketplace for buyers and sellers without intermediaries.

This legal victory not only secures Uniswap’s operational model but also sets a precedent for other decentralized platforms facing similar legal challenges.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI workflows.

Core Scientific (CORZ), a bitcoin mining and digital infrastructure company, reported fourth-quarter revenue of $79.8 million for the period ended Dec. 31, compared with $94.93 million a year earlier. Consensus forecasts were for revenue of $122.08 million, according to LSEG data.

The company posted a loss of $0.42 per share, versus expectations for a loss of $0.08 per share.

The weaker results come as bitcoin miners continue to adjust to the April 2024 halving, which cut block rewards in half and squeezed margins across the industry. A higher network hash rate and rising energy and infrastructure costs have pressured profitability, particularly for operators still scaling new capacity.

Core has been repositioning itself beyond pure self-mining and toward hosting and colocation services for high-performance computing clients, including AI workloads. CEO Adam Sullivan said the company is leaning into that strategy.

“We’re now past the halfway point on our existing builds and scaling our colocation platform into a 1.5 gigawatt pipeline of leasable capacity,” Core Scientific CEO Adam Sullivan, said in a statement. “With a multi-geography footprint and proven execution, we’re accelerating RFS timelines across multiple sites to position the company for durable growth.”

As part of this plan, the company announced that it is expanding into Texas, adding about 430 mega watts of gross power capacity. It also increased capacity across other regions by about 300 mega watts.

CORZ shares were lower by 4.5% in after hours trading.

Meanwhile, Riot Platforms (RIOT), a bitcoin mining and data center development company, reported fourth-quarter revenue of $647.4 million, up from $376.7 million a year earlier. Analysts had expected revenue of $157.4 million, including $136 million from bitcoin mining and $21.3 million from engineering.

RIOT shares were flat after hours.

Buterin proposes binary state trees and eventual RISC-V VM shift to improve Ethereum’s proving efficiency and execution simplicity.

Vitalik Buterin has proposed execution-layer changes that could fundamentally reshape Ethereum’s core architecture. The project’s co-founder argued that deep modifications to the network’s state tree and virtual machine are necessary to remove what he described as the chain’s biggest proving bottlenecks.

In a detailed post on X, Buterin said that the state tree and VM together account for more than 80% of the constraints that affect proof efficiency and called them “basically mandatory” targets if Ethereum wants to enable scalable client-side and zero-knowledge proving use cases.

Ethereum Overhaul

He pointed to EIP-7864, a proposal developed by Guillaume Ballet and others, which would replace Ethereum’s current hexary Keccak-based Merkle Patricia Tree with a binary tree built on a more efficient hash function. According to Buterin, the change would shorten Merkle branches by roughly four times, by cutting bandwidth requirements and making client-side branch verification significantly cheaper.

This could reduce data costs for tools such as Helios and private information retrieval systems by 4x, Buterin added. Proving efficiency could also be improved by 3-4 times from shorter branches alone. He expects additional gains if Ethereum shifts to hash functions such as BLAKE3, which is estimated to be three times more efficient than Keccak. Meanwhile, a Poseidon variant could offer up to 100 times improvement, though he noted further security work would be required.

The proposed binary design would also group storage slots into 64-256-slot “pages” and allow more efficient loading and editing of adjacent storage, potentially saving more than 10,000 gas per transaction for applications that access early storage slots. Buterin explained that a prover-friendly state tree would also allow zero-knowledge applications to compose directly with Ethereum’s state instead of building independent trees, while at the same time simplifying the structure and enabling metadata additions for future state expiry mechanisms.

Beyond the state tree overhaul, Buterin made the case for eventually replacing the Ethereum Virtual Machine with a RISC-V-based VM, as he described the idea as longer-term and non-consensus. But he expressed high conviction that it would become “the obvious thing to do” after state roadmap upgrades are complete.

Possible Deployment Roadmap

The Ethereum co-founder said that a RISC-V VM would be more execution-efficient, more prover-friendly, and simpler, while noting that many existing provers are already written in RISC-V and that an interpreter could be implemented in only a few hundred lines of code. He detailed a phased transition plan beginning with using the new VM for precompiles, then allowing developers to deploy contracts directly in the new VM, and ultimately retiring the EVM into a compatibility layer written as a smart contract in the new system.

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Under that roadmap, users would retain full backward compatibility apart from gas cost changes, which Buterin said would likely be overshadowed by scaling improvements in the coming years.

Buterin’s latest push comes just days after he introduced a quantum-resistance roadmap, which included proposals to replace consensus-layer BLS signatures with hash-based schemes such as Winternitz variants.

Venice AI, a decentralized artificial intelligence (AI) protocol created by Erik Voorhees, the founder and CEO of ShapeShift, continues to outperform the altcoin market, more than doubling its valuation over the past seven days.

The VVV token soared 35% today to a $640 million fully diluted valuation (FDV) after Voorhees revealed that Venice is a recommended model provider for OpenClaw, the open-source autonomous AI agent platform recently acquired by OpenAI for $1 billion.

VVV has had an impressive month, rallying nearly 300% while the broader market trended lower.

Following the DIEM token launch in September, Venice utilizes a dual-token system that provides DIEM stakers with free access to multiple AI models. DIEM reached an all-time high of $895 today, up more than 900% from its November low.

The Cardano price flashed a textbook bullish divergence on the daily chart, surged 24%, then collapsed. On-chain data reveals a coordinated whale exit worth over $540 million into the rally — even as the Money Flow Index confirmed retail was actively buying the dip.

Here’s what happened, and what it means next.

Daily RSI Divergence Fired & MFI Confirmed the Move

Between December 31, 2025, and February 24, 2026, ADA’s daily chart built a bullish divergence. The Cardano price printed a lower low, between the late-December range and the February 24 low. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, formed a higher low.

When price makes a lower low but RSI makes a higher low, it signals that bearish momentum is weakening even as price continues to fall.

The signal resolved on February 25 when ADA surged nearly 24%, briefly touching $0.31 before posting a long upper wick — a candlestick structure indicating aggressive selling into the highs.

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What makes this setup more interesting is that the Money Flow Index backed it up. The MFI is a volume-weighted momentum indicator that combines both price and volume to measure buying and selling pressure, scored from 0 to 100. Unlike the RSI, which only considers price, MFI factors in trading volume — making it a more direct proxy for whether real capital is flowing into or out of an asset.

Between February 24 and 28, both price and MFI trended higher together. There was no bearish MFI divergence. This means the dips were being genuinely bought with volume conviction, not just price drifting upward on thin liquidity. Someone was actively absorbing sell pressure.

So the RSI divergence fired. MFI confirmed genuine buying support. ADA jumped 24%. And yet, from that February 25 peak, the price fell 17% within days. If the technical setup was valid and dip-buying was real, what killed the rally?

Over 2 Billion ADA Distributed in 3 Days: The Whales Were the Sellers

The answer is on-chain. Santiment’s supply distribution data reveals that between February 24 and 27, every major whale cohort reduced its holdings simultaneously.

The 1 billion-plus ADA cohort executed the largest single exit. It shed roughly 1.02 billion tokens in a single day between February 24 and 25 — dropping from 2.90 billion to 1.88 billion ADA.

The 100 million to 1 billion cohort initially picked up tokens on February 24, likely absorbing some of that initial sell, but then reversed aggressively by February 27, dropping from 3.47 billion to 2.61 billion ADA — a reduction of approximately 860 million tokens.

The 10 million to 100 million cohort shed around 220 million ADA over the same window, declining from 13.90 billion to 13.68 billion. Even the smallest whale tier, the 1 million to 10 million holders, reduced from 5.69 billion to 5.64 billion, offloading roughly 50 million tokens.

In total, approximately 2.15 billion ADA was distributed across all four cohorts within three days. At the average price of roughly $0.27 during this window, that amounts to approximately $540 million in concentrated sell pressure — all hitting the market during a rally that retail was actively buying into.

This is why the MFI data is so revealing. The MFI confirmed genuine buying support. The whale data confirms where the selling came from. Retail and mid-tier addresses were absorbing whale supply on the way up, but $540 million in distribution over 72 hours simply overwhelmed that demand.

Derivatives Data Adds Weight To ADA Breakdown

The derivatives market reinforces this picture. Cardano’s futures open interest had already collapsed from $1.95 billion September peak to below $450 million by mid-February. One of the lowest levels this year. This meant that leveraged retail had largely exited before the divergence even fired.

The buying MFI captured was therefore likely spot-driven: retail accumulating on the dip, using RSI divergence as conviction. But spot buying alone could not absorb the scale of whale distribution.

Cardano Price Action: Lower Lows Persist, Whale Re-Entry Becomes the Key Signal

ADA’s daily price structure remains lower as of March 2 (relative to late December), trading at $0.27, while the RSI continues to print higher lows (again relative to late December). This means the divergence framework is still technically alive, even after the late-February failure. A new swing low could trigger it again.

On the upside, $0.31 is the line in the sand. This was the exact rejection level on February 25. A daily close above this level would mark the first structural break in the downtrend, opening a path toward $0.37.

On the downside, a loss of $0.26 would confirm the weakness. Below that, the $0.23 and $0.21 levels become critical.

If $0.21 fails, deeper Fibonacci extensions at $0.18 (0.618) and $0.15 (0.786) come into play.

But the most important variable for Cardano’s next move is not a price level. It is whether the whales start buying again. As of March 2, Santiment data shows that major holders have not resumed significant accumulation.

If ADA declines toward $0.21 or lower and whale cohorts begin to re-accumulate, as they did earlier, it would represent a considerably stronger setup than February delivered. The moment whales resume buying can be treated as a potential local bottom signal.

For the next divergence to succeed, it needs whale participation as confirmation, not contradiction. Until that happens, the Cardano price structure could continue to point lower.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​