The numbers behind the oft-cited prediction that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030 simply don’t add up, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research.

“It’s mathematically impossible,” Thielen tells Cointelegraph on Trade Secrets, arguing that Bitcoin’s historical capital inflows over the past 15 years fall far short of the amount it would need to attract over the next four years to reach $1 million. “We have seen $1 trillion US dollars of inflow to bring the market cap really to $1 trillion. To $1 million [per] Bitcoin. It’s 15x, I think, from here,” Thielen says.

At the time of publication, Bitcoin’s market cap is around $1.28 trillion, with its price trading at $63,868, according to CoinMarketCap.

Thielen estimates that Bitcoin would need to attract another $15 trillion in capital to reach a per Bitcoin price of $1 million. This is equivalent to roughly 25% of the US stock market’s total value flowing into Bitcoin over the next four years.

“It would require trillions,” says Thielen

“It takes trillions and trillions of dollars to move the price really materially higher, and that’s why we are not as bullish as those arguments which we think are totally mathematically unrealistic because it would require trillions,” Thielen says.

Bitcoin is down 2.35% over the past 30 days. (CoinMarketCap)

Thielen says the higher Bitcoin’s price goes, the weaker retail sentiment becomes, partly due to the psychology of investors wanting to own a whole unit of an asset.

“I think a lot of people kind of wondered, maybe I should just rather buy a new car than buy one Bitcoin, or should I really work a whole year for just one Bitcoin?” Thielen says. “People don’t want to buy a tenth or a hundredth of a Bitcoin; they want to buy a whole Bitcoin. You don’t want to buy a fraction of a painting.”

“Satoshis doesn’t really sound as interesting as Bitcoin,” Thielen says.

He warns Bitcoiners not just to expect Bitcoin to rebound as it has in previous cycles, and the $126,000 all-time high may not reappear as quickly as investors expect.

“Usually, it takes some time because we are at a higher market cap, and that usually takes a lot of money to push the Bitcoin price higher. So I wouldn’t argue that next year we’re gonna see new highs. If we go back to, let’s say, $100K, that would already be, I think, a big, big achievement,” Thielen says.

$1 million Bitcoin has been touted by well-known industry executives

The prediction that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030 has been made by prominent industry figures, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood. Thielen argues that such bold forecasts are an easy way for executives to generate media attention.

(Brian Armstrong)

“Round numbers and the higher the number, the more it’s being quoted by the press,” Thielen says, arguing that extravagant predictions tend to do more harm than good.

“These optimistic price targets tend to hurt retail investors because they sort of think, OK, if this is only halfway right, then I’m gonna make a lot of money,” Thielen says.

“I think nearly everybody was still very bullish and projected higher prices [but] we came into the year already quite conservative, and you know, I think our conservative approach has been the right strategy,” Thielen says.

Cointelegraph asked Thielen which year Bitcoiners might reasonably expect Bitcoin could reach $1 million. “I don’t want to say never, but I do think, you know, a million is really a high number,” Thielen says.

“It would require, you know, a major credit event, implosion of everything.”

Bitcoin could bottom in October before recovering to around $130,000 ahead of the 2028 halving, according to Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price peaked above $126,000 in early October 2025, meaning that the “market should bottom in October,” Klippsten told Cointelegraph. 

He argued that Bitcoin has so far bottomed about 12 months after each previous bull market peak, while cautioning against extrapolating from only a few previous cycles.

Klippsten’s prediction for an October bottom builds on a June interview with Cointelegraph, when he said Bitcoin may bottom earlier than in previous cycles as long-term holders accumulated a record share of supply, or 14.7 million BTC.

In the latest interview, Klippsten said Bitcoin could fall to $57,000, or even $53,000, before a quick recovery, and could reach around $130,000 ahead of the 2028 halving.

Other analytics providers are eyeing an earlier bottom. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said that Bitcoin could confirm a bear-market bottom in August with a monthly close above $63,000, which would turn several of the analytics firm’s cycle indicators bullish.

Related: H100 becomes Europe’s No. 2 Bitcoin treasury after 2,455 BTC deal

Altcoins are dead as money, crypto will become TradFi

Klippsten said altcoins are “basically dead” as competitors to Bitcoin as money, arguing that the best outcome for crypto and decentralized finance (DeFi) is to “become part of TradFi.”

When asked about his thoughts on altcoins that may outperform the broader market, Klippsten pointed to Hyperliquid, arguing that centralized crypto businesses will eventually be brought under traditional finance regulation.

“Hyperliquid is a business and it has a token. If it’s a business that’s centralized, it will eventually just get sucked up by TradFi and be thought of as an exchange and a bank.” 

Hyperliquid generated $5.9 million in revenue during the past week, ranking as the industry’s fifth-largest DeFi protocol by weekly revenue, according to DefiLlama.

The Hyperliquid (HYPE) token rose 130% year-to-date, while Bitcoin’s price fell 28% during the same period, TradingView data shows.

BTC and HYPE tokens, year-to-date chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In a July report, crypto market maker Wintermute argued that the growing presence of institutional investors has changed the dynamics of altcoin markets, resulting in altcoin rallies becoming narrower and more selective. Wintermute said liquidity was concentrating in the assets institutions favored while activity across the market’s “long tail” weakened. 

Magazine: Bitcoiners turn to dice throws as self-custody setups are re-evaluated

CLARITY Act passage odds have dropped below 20% on Polymarket as XRP volatility drives renewed interest in UE Crypto’s cloud mining and yield services.

The probability of the CLARITY Act passing on Polymarket has plunged from 82% to below 20%. Can September 15 save the bill?

Amid XRP price volatility, market uncertainty, and the market fog surrounding the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, XRP continues to show weakness, while UE Crypto’s cloud mining platform and stable yield mechanism have attracted significant attention from investors.

XRP has underperformed the broader cryptocurrency market, while investors’ interest in UE Crypto’s cloud mining and yield mechanisms has been reignited.

Faced with XRP price volatility and the market uncertainty surrounding the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, an increasing number of XRP investors are turning their attention to UE Crypto in an effort to hedge against market risks.

UE Crypto positions its cloud mining platform as a new option for XRP holders, aiming to provide them with additional digital asset returns rather than relying solely on price appreciation.

Among the assets most closely linked to the market structure adjustments of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), XRP has already reflected the impact of this delay in its price. XRP is expected to directly benefit from the formal establishment of its classification as a digital commodity under CFTC regulation, but as the timeline has been delayed, inflows into its ETFs have also slowed.

This dynamic has been detailed in the article and is related to reduced XRP ETF inflows caused by uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act. This pattern has reappeared after every procedural setback, including the immediate price reaction previously recorded when the Senate vote was postponed.

Spot trading volume remains light, while a narrowing intraday trading range indicates that buyers have yet to demonstrate sufficient confidence. Daily trading volume stands at $885 million, down from $905 million yesterday, indicating that trader interest is weakening.

Last week, XRP fell -2%, while Bitcoin fell -0.28% and Ethereum fell -0.3%, making XRP one of the worst performers among major cryptocurrencies. Therefore, this sell-off is specific to XRP rather than a broader correction across the cryptocurrency market.

XRP’s only anticipated catalyst remains stalled. The CLARITY Act, which is intended to classify XRP as a federal commodity, missed the voting window before the Senate’s August recess and is now scheduled for a procedural vote on September 15. As a result, XRP’s price currently has no upward momentum for the next month.

The reason may be the current lack of market transparency — or, more specifically, the delay of the long-awaited Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.

As investors explore cloud mining and yield mechanisms, XRP’s price weakness has driven increased interest in UE Crypto.

Amid continued market volatility, XRP holders seeking cloud mining and yield strategies continue to show interest in UE Crypto.

As of August 15, 2026, the current price of XRP (XRP) is $1.00. Over the past 24 hours, the price has fallen by 0.1%, while the price movement over the past hour was 0%. From a longer-term perspective, the price fluctuation over the past 7 days was -3.3%, while the price fluctuation over the past month was -9.3%. Among the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, XRP recorded the largest seven-day decline, falling by -9.3%, while the overall market remained largely flat. The token’s price action appears to indicate that the Clarity trade is gradually being unwound.

Affected by market sentiment, XRP fell to a recent low, causing its market capitalization to shrink significantly and temporarily losing its position as the world’s fourth-largest digital asset. The increase in short-term volatility has prompted some investors to reassess their future XRP investment strategies.

Meanwhile, market traders are closely watching the upcoming period from September to October, when the CLARITY Act is expected to reach a decisive outcome. The implementation of this major regulatory catalyst is bound to have a strongly polarized impact on future market sentiment. However, before this critical legislative window arrives, the broader market remains trapped in a range-bound pattern, while XRP is also showing a stagnant consolidation pattern characterized by low trading volume and declining turnover.

To hedge against market risks, the UE Crypto cloud mining digital asset platform has attracted increasing attention from investors. Through its innovative underlying cloud computing architecture and yield aggregation mechanism, the platform aims to hedge against market volatility and improve returns.

As XRP volatility increases, UE Crypto has become a new option for investors.

Given the recent increase in XRP price volatility, more and more XRP holders are turning their attention to UE Crypto. Unlike highly volatile leveraged trading or strategies that rely solely on price appreciation, UE Crypto’s cloud mining platform provides a more convenient way to participate in digital assets. Users do not need to deploy mining machines or maintain hardware; they only need to select a computing power contract to participate in mining services. This allows them to focus on the long-term prospects of XRP while maximizing the benefits of their digital assets.

About UE Crypto

UE Crypto is headquartered in the United Kingdom and operates within European regulatory frameworks such as MiCA and MiFID II, continuously improving its transparency, operational standards, and user protection mechanisms.

The platform adopts a multi-layer security architecture, including:

• Annual financial and security compliance audits conducted by PwC.
• Digital asset custody insurance provided by Lloyd’s of London.
• Enterprise-grade network protection from Cloudflare and McAfee® security systems.
• Bank-grade data encryption and professional security infrastructure to provide multiple layers of protection for users’ assets and accounts.

UE Crypto supports a range of mainstream digital assets, including XRP, BTC, ETH, USDT, USDC, DOGE, LTC, and SOL, providing users with a more flexible and convenient digital asset service experience.

Start earning daily returns in just three steps

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Visit the official UE Crypto website and register using an email address to receive a $20 trial bonus.

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Once the contract is activated, the system will automatically allocate computing power, and returns will be settled automatically every 24 hours. Users can withdraw their earnings at any time or continue participating according to their own needs, thereby achieving long-term compound growth of their assets.

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• LTC (Algorithm-Driven System Contract)Investment amount: $5,000，
  Contract duration: 25 days, Daily return: $72, Total return at contract expiration: $5,000 + $1,800
• BTC (Quantitative Intelligent System Contract)Investment amount: $10,000，
  Contract duration: 35 days, Daily return: $158, Total return at contract expiration: $10,000 + $5,530

For more details about the contract plans, please visit the official UE Crypto website.

Overview: XRP’s $1 defense battle may be doomed to fail!

Market sentiment is extremely weak, and XRP is severely lacking reasons to rise ahead of the CLARITY Act vote in September. Whale support may only be temporary, and a break below $1 may already be counting down!

The massive amount of leverage accumulated since August is a double-edged sword. Once the $1 level is lost, a cascade of liquidations across leveraged positions could trigger an unforgiving sell-off, causing the decline to accelerate beyond everyone’s expectations.

Stop holding on blindly and switch tracks! The era of simply holding coins and waiting for a massive price surge is already over. Before the storm arrives, XRP holders have already begun turning their attention toward more diversified cloud mining digital asset platforms.

UE Crypto’s cloud mining digital asset platform has a yield mechanism that differs from highly volatile leveraged trading or strategies that rely solely on price appreciation. UE Crypto’s cloud mining services provide users with a low-risk, long-term alternative for participating deeply in the digital asset ecosystem, helping investors move away from short-term market noise, focus on the long-term value of their assets, and establish more resilient and sustainable passive income.

XRP falling below $1 is no longer the beginning of a loss, but the golden opportunity to join UE Crypto and unlock a whole new path to wealth growth.

Similar systems, however, have been around the blockchain space for years in one form or another. Early adopters may recall the reams of banks that joined R3’s consortium effort back in 2016, for example, or the many enterprise players that flocked to the Linux-affiliated Hyperledger ecosystem. R3 didn’t make it to the end of the year before the big banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Santander withdrew from the system.

“It’s like we’re having consortium chain 2.0,” said Raman in an interview. “This is going to end up being a race to the bottom for consortium chains. You’re going to have consortium chains versus consortium chains.”

Raman likened Ethereum’s mainnet to Hypertext Transfer Protocol, or HTTP, the base layer of the internet itself. A more secure, permissioned, privacy-enabled layer, HTTPS, sits on top. An open base layer is necessary, Raman said, because that’s the only way you can have maximum interoperability and maximum liquidity in one place, he said.

“We strongly believe, and always have done, that you need a global, open, permissionless infrastructure as the base layer,” Raman said. “Then you can build all the permissioning on top of it. Whether that’s at the app layer, whether that’s the L2 layer, that’s where you should have the customizability.”

Dartmouth College’s crypto ETF holdings have fallen 15% to about $12.4 million in the second quarter, even though its $9 billion endowment kept the same number of fund shares.

Dartmouth crypto ETF holdings have fallen to $12.4 million

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing submitted Thursday showed that Dartmouth’s trustees held about $12.4 million across three U.S.-listed crypto funds as of June 30.

Dartmouth reported positions in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, the Grayscale Ethereum Staking ETF, and the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF. Through the three products, the Ivy League university gained price exposure to Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana without reporting direct ownership of the tokens.

Compared with the endowment’s March 31 disclosure, the combined position declined by about $2.2 million from $14.6 million. The 15% reduction came entirely from changes in the funds’ reported market values because Dartmouth disclosed the same share count for each product at both quarter-end dates.

As previously reported by crypto.news, Dartmouth’s first-quarter filing valued its Bitwise Solana fund holding at about $3.3 million and its Grayscale Ethereum position at roughly $3.5 million. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF accounted for the largest part of the portfolio at approximately $7.7 million.

At $12.4 million, the three positions represented about 0.14% of Dartmouth’s estimated $9 billion endowment. The SEC report covers qualifying U.S.-listed securities and does not provide a complete account of the university’s assets, which may also include private investments, bonds, property, and holdings that do not appear on Form 13F.

Crypto prices have remained below March 31 levels

During the months following Dartmouth’s first-quarter disclosure, all three underlying cryptocurrencies lost value. Bitcoin closed March 31 at $68,233.31, while Ether finished at $2,104.71 and Solana at $83.11, according to historical data from Yahoo Finance.

By Aug. 15, Bitcoin was trading near $62,976, leaving it about 7.7% below its March 31 close. Ether had declined approximately 10.7% to around $1,880, while Solana’s price near $75.20 represented a drop of roughly 9.5%.

Fund values do not always change by exactly the same percentage as their underlying assets. Fees, staking rewards, each fund’s share structure, and differences between market-closing times can affect the reported value. Dartmouth’s 15% quarterly decline refers to the combined value of its ETF shares on June 30, rather than a calculated loss from directly holding BTC, ETH, or SOL through Aug. 15.

The filing also does not show Dartmouth’s purchase prices or indicate whether the positions produced a realized gain or loss. Since no shares were sold between the two reported quarter-end dates, the $2.2 million decline represents a reduction in disclosed market value rather than confirmed proceeds from a sale.

Dartmouth began reporting crypto-linked investments in 2025, placing it among the first U.S. universities to disclose digital asset exposure through exchange-traded products. Its choice of listed funds allows the endowment to hold crypto-linked securities within conventional investment and reporting systems instead of managing wallets and private keys.

SEC filings provide a delayed view of university holdings

Form 13F requires institutional investment managers with at least $100 million in qualifying securities under management to disclose certain long positions every quarter. The reports generally cover U.S.-listed shares, ETFs, some convertible debt, and listed options.

As explained in a June guide to 13F reports, the documents present positions held on the final day of a quarter and may be filed as many as 45 days later. Dartmouth’s latest report therefore shows what the endowment held on June 30, not necessarily its portfolio on the Thursday when the filing became public.

The form does not disclose short positions, hedges, or most private investments. It also excludes cryptocurrencies held directly because tokens such as Bitcoin and Ether are not Section 13(f) securities. Dartmouth could have other digital asset exposure outside the three disclosed funds, although the filing neither confirms nor rules out such holdings.

For U.S. investors, the report confirms that the university used securities traded through regulated markets rather than direct token custody. BlackRock’s IBIT provides spot Bitcoin exposure, while the Grayscale and Bitwise products combine exposure to their respective assets with staking provisions under each fund’s structure.

Dartmouth’s unchanged share counts also illustrate the distinction between a portfolio decision and a valuation change. A lower dollar figure in a quarterly filing does not by itself establish that an institution reduced its position because the value can fall while the number of shares remains constant.

A similar effect appeared in Morgan Stanley’s second-quarter filing. The bank increased its IBIT share count by 23% to approximately 16.5 million shares, but the position’s reported value fell nearly 18% from about $667 million to $549 million as Bitcoin and the fund declined during the quarter, according to an Aug. 14 report on its holdings.

Harvard has taken a different approach to crypto ETFs

Other university endowments have changed their crypto ETF positions rather than simply recording lower valuations. Harvard Management Company eliminated its BlackRock iShares Ethereum Trust holding during the first quarter after reporting 3,870,900 shares worth $86.82 million at the end of 2025.

Harvard also reduced its BlackRock Bitcoin ETF position from 5,353,612 shares at the end of 2025 to 3,044,612 shares on March 31. The remaining IBIT position was valued at approximately $116.97 million, according to its first-quarter SEC disclosure.

The filing did not state why Harvard exited its Ether position or cut its Bitcoin ETF stake. Unlike Dartmouth’s quarter-to-quarter report, Harvard’s filing showed that the endowment had changed the number of shares it owned.

Harvard, whose endowment is valued at about $57 billion, had not disclosed its second-quarter 2026 holdings as of Friday. Its next Form 13F will show only the qualifying U.S.-listed securities held on June 30 and will not reveal any trades completed after the quarter ended.