tl;dr
A focus on short-term price movements — of which I am as guilty as anyone else — is not the healthy way to invest.
Market Snap
Market Wrap
Tomorrow has been marked as “Liberation Day” by Trump for which he has threatened to ramp up his personal Tariff Wars against as yet unspecified countries on as yet unspecified goods. Risk assets don’t like it, and neither do bonds.
Having normalised just three months ago, the yield curve is inverting again, suggesting that markets are pricing an ever-higher risk of recession six months and out. Such an outcome would be fatal to Trump’s personal ambitions for the next nearly four years, but at what point does he take notice? Probably not this week, so expect more blood on the streets.
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary — More blood on the streets?
Fidelity Digital Assets released a report addressing the question as to whether this BTC cycle is done and dusted or not. Since the invention of BTC, prices have generally followed a four-year cycle matching the halving cycle, but with a delay.
For those who have been following crypto markets for more than just one of these so-called cycles, there is one repeating narrative that stands out, and that is that speculators (who tend to the noisiest commentators) always proclaim on the way up that there is no end in sight, and always shout despair during any of the subsequent drawdowns. This is to be expected — speculators have zero interest in the application of crypto technology, they are simply interested in making a fast buck. Which is a legitimate interest, but please note that most of them lose a fast buck, and then some. That is not what the CCC is all about.
Fidelity have provided this useful graphic which shows the periodic sell-offs that punctuate crypto bull markets:
