tl;dr
Trump’s tariffs again. New guidance for stablecoin regulation meets with the CCC approval.
Market Snap
Market Wrap
When cryptos follow stocks for a few days, the naysayers are out in force. Funny how they shut up when BTC proves its value as part of a diversified portfolio.
Jerome Powell, Chair of the Fed, was personally responsible for printing dollars whilst the US economy was in shutdown, a strategy that was guaranteed to cause inflation both persistent and structural. Powell continued to describe that inflation as “transitory” long after everyone knew that was not the case. Now he claims:
“While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent.”
On the first point he is probably correct, but we will not know for sure for many months. And on the second point, he is indulging in pure speculation, with no justification whatsoever, which is his stock-in-trade. Bond markets are saying the opposite, and they are a much better guide to the future. The possibility of emergency rate cuts looms large.
Occasional Series — Mumbai
My patience with the lack of reliable and accessible WiFi is being somewhat tested.
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary — Trump’s Tariff Wars
The consensus opinion amongst the technocratic elite, who mostly get it wrong, is that the TTW will lower economic activity, putting over-indebted governments into some potentially serious trouble. This is one of those rare occasions when I find myself in bed with said technocratic elite, which is not a particularly comfortable position to find oneself in, as I am sure you will agree, but for now it will have to do.
The betting markets concur:
That is quite a move over the last month.
