TLDR:

• Google’s latest paper slashes the qubit threshold to break elliptic curve cryptography below 500,000.
• Ethereum targets full post-quantum deployment by 2029 with live testnets and ten active client teams.
• Bitcoin holds an estimated 5–15% quantum-vulnerable supply, including roughly one million Satoshi-era coins.
• Jefferies removed Bitcoin from model portfolios, flagging quantum vulnerability as a material investor risk.

Post-quantum cryptography has become a pressing concern for major blockchain networks worldwide. On March 30, Google Quantum AI published research showing that quantum computers could break Bitcoin and Ethereum’s cryptographic protections with far fewer resources than previously estimated.

A companion paper by Oratomic, a Caltech and Harvard startup, suggested neutral-atom quantum computers could achieve this with just 10,000 qubits. Earlier estimates had placed that threshold at one million qubits or more.

Ethereum Builds the Most Advanced Post-Quantum Cryptography Roadmap Among Major Blockchains

All major blockchains currently rely on elliptic curve cryptography to secure transactions. Shor’s algorithm allows quantum computers to reverse this process and expose private keys quickly. The qubit threshold to break elliptic curve cryptography dropped from 9 million in 2023 to under 500,000 today.

Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake co-authored the Google paper and leads post-quantum research efforts. He estimates at least a 10% chance of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer emerging by 2032.

Google, meanwhile, has set a 2029 internal deadline to migrate its own infrastructure to post-quantum cryptography.

Ethereum’s post-quantum effort stands as the most advanced among major blockchains today. The Foundation began funding hash-based cryptography research in 2018 with a $5 million grant.

The network now has a public roadmap targeting full deployment by 2029, live test networks with around ten client teams, and a $1 million cryptographic bounty program.

Drake described the 2029 target as “realistic/conservative” and pointed to the 2022 Merge as evidence of execution capacity.

That upgrade transitioned Ethereum from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake on a live multi-hundred-billion-dollar network without disruption.

Signature aggregation technology will compress post-quantum signatures into compact proofs, avoiding a throughput penalty.

Ethereum’s quantum-vulnerable supply sits at roughly 2%, compared to Bitcoin’s estimated 5–15%. The network is younger, and better key management practices from launch kept this number lower.

Drake recently remarked: “I’ve stopped thinking about post-quantum as a hurdle that we have to overcome, and I think of it more as an opportunity.”

Bitcoin and High-Throughput Chains Face Greater Post-Quantum Migration Challenges

Bitcoin carries the same elliptic curve vulnerability but operates within a more complex governance environment. BIP-360, a post-quantum migration proposal, has received broad community engagement so far. Even so, over $1.5 trillion in value at stake has not generated the same urgency visible at Ethereum.

Nic Carter, founding partner at Castle Island Ventures, offered a candid comparison between the two networks. He described Ethereum’s approach as “best in class” and Bitcoin’s current posture as “worst in class.” He added: “Elliptic curve cryptography is on the brink of obsolescence. Whether it’s 3 or 10 years; it’s over and we need to accept that.”

Bitcoin’s development culture treats the protocol more as a finished product than an evolving system. That stance benefits monetary credibility but creates friction when cryptographic upgrades are urgently needed. The debate over roughly 1 million BTC in Satoshi-era addresses will also take considerable time to resolve.

Solana and other high-throughput chains face a separate but equally serious challenge. Hash-based signatures are far larger than classical ones, and Solana exposes all public keys by default.

A full migration would narrow the throughput advantage that has served as Solana’s primary competitive differentiator.

Jefferies has already removed Bitcoin from model portfolios, citing quantum vulnerability as a material risk. Carter warned: “ETH people have already figured this out. Unless something changes quickly, ETHBTC will start to reflect the divergence in prioritization.”

Tokenization platforms managing assets with 10- to 30-year durations will increasingly treat post-quantum migration capability as a baseline requirement for institutional deployment.

Key takeaways

• ETH is up by less than 1% and now trades above $2,050.
• The bulls defended the $2,000 support level, with further upward movement on the card. 

Ethereum is up by less than 1% at the time of writing on Friday, halting the bearish performance that gripped the market on Thursday. The coin could rally higher in the near term as buyers have stepped in over the past few hours. 

Onchain data paints a mixed picture for Ether

ETH is trading above $2,050 at press time, but onchain data paint a mixed picture for the top altcoin. Over the past week, investors across different cohorts have cracked under pressure.

According to the onchain data, wallets with a balance of 10K-100K, which have been major buyers throughout the recent downtrend, offloaded 340K ETH between March 24-30. 

However, the wallets flipped back to buying on Tuesday, scooping 270K ETH across the past two days.

On the other hand, wallets with 100-1K and 1K-10K ETH continued distribution, scaling down their holdings by roughly 200K ETH over the past week.

In addition to that, US spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also posted a similar trend. The ETFs have recorded only two days of inflows over the past two weeks of trading, indicating a bearish bias. 

Ethereum Price Forecast: Bulls defend the $2k psychological level

The ETH/USD 4-hour chart is bullish and efficient as Ether recorded its first monthly gain in six months. 

At press time, ETH is trading at $2,062. Its near-term bias remains mildly bullish as ETH is trading below the 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which cap advances at around $2,080 and $2,160.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 53, slightly above the neutral level, while the MACD has stabilized around the midline, both indicating a growing bullish momentum. 

If the recovery persists, the bulls would face immediate resistance at $2,108, followed by $2,389 and then $2,746. A daily close above $2,108 would be the first step to ease pressure and expose the higher resistance band toward the 100-day EMA and $2,389.

However, if the sellers regain control, ETH would test the initial support at $1,911, followed by $1,741 and $1,524. 

If ETH continues to trade below $2,108, it risks drifting back toward the $1,700 area in the near term.

The crypto market continued to exhibit signs of choppiness on Friday, with bitcoin BTC$66,796.54 trading at $67,000 in the middle of a trading range that spans back to early February.

A selection of altcoins picked up during the lower liquidity Asia hours, prompting the likes of ALGO and RENDER to post double-digit gains over the past 24 hours.

But the wider picture remains the same; the crypto market is trading in a macro downtrend dating back to October, characterized by a series of lower highs nad lower lows.

U.S. equities trade flat on Friday as volatility continues to cool since Donald Trump’s comments about a potential end to the war in Iran on Monday.

Brent crude oil is trading at $109 a barrel, indicating that an end to the war is perhaps not as close as some analysts are predicting.

Derivatives Positioning

• Futures markets for Bitcoin and Ethereum remained subdued, with the extended holiday weekend keeping trading volumes thin. Open interest in both assets was largely unchanged over the past 24 hours.
• Open interest in Solana futures has climbed to over 65 million SOL, its highest level since Feb. 7. The increase, combined with negative funding rates and an OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta, suggests traders are increasingly positioning for downside, with short sellers showing greater conviction.
• Similar bearish market dynamics are present TRX and BCH.
• OI in Privacy-focused Zcash (ZEC) futures have steadied near 1.70 million ZEC for the third straight day. ZEC’s CVD is also the highest among majors. This combination suggests sustained positioning with strong directional conviction, likely driven by aggressive buying pressure.
• Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index has declined to 51.28%, the lowest since Feb. The market shows no signs of panic whatsoever despite geopolitical concerns and energy market volatility.
• Ether’s volatility index has slipped to 72.55%, the lowest since Feb. 26.
• On Deribit, bitcoin and ether puts continue to trade pricier than calls, indicating a bias for downside protection.
• Glassnode said that the dealer gamma exposure below $68,000, all the way down to $50,000 is negative. This means that dealers could sell in a falling market to hedge their exposure, adding to downside volatility.

Token talk

• The altcoin market has been relatively resilient to crypto’s choppy behavior this week, certain portions of the market have outperformed bitcoin and crypto majors, particularly DeFi and AI tokens.
• The DeFi Select Index (DFX) is up by 1.3% since midnight UTC, while the CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) rose by 1.5%, beating the bitcoin-heavy benchmarks likes the CoinDesk 20 (CD20), which is up by just 0.16% on Friday.
• The outperformance of certain altcoins is symptomatic of a consolidating market. When bitcoin and the majors trade flat, traders often speculate on lower liquidity altcoins. That speculation typically grinds to a halt when bitcoin is back deciding the next major market move.

Key takeaways

• PYTH is up 9% in the last 24 hours, outperforming other major cryptocurrencies.
• The rally comes following Pyth Network’s integration with Polymarket.

PYTH, the native coin of the Pyth Network, is one of the best performers in the crypto market over the past 24 hours. It could rally higher in the near term as the broader market recovers from Thursday’s slump.

PYTH rallies on Polymarket integration

On Thursday, Pyth Network revealed in a blog post that Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform, has integrated Pyth Pro as its data source for a new suite of traditional asset contracts.

The initial offerings include gold, silver, and major equity index ETFs. Polymarket now relies on Pyth Pro’s data to power its daily up/down and daily close markets, with live price charts updated every second to ensure full transparency.

The integration has seen PYTH rally by 9% in the last 24 hours and now trades at $0.0420 per coin. 

Pyth Pro provides real-time price data through WebSocket, which Polymarket samples every second to display as a live “price to beat” chart. This allows traders to monitor the market’s status relative to their position in real-time.

The selected assets span a wide range of traditional finance, including major equity indices, commodities like gold, silver, WTI crude, and natural gas, along with over a dozen high-profile U.S. equities such as TSLA, COIN, and PLTR.

Polymarket has integrated this real-time data as a key component of its perpetual futures trading platform. Pyth Pro delivers institutional-grade market data directly from top firms, ensuring it is accurate, transparent, and affordable across all asset classes and regions.

To enhance this, Pyth has partnered with industry leaders and government agencies like Cboe, Jane Street, Revolut, and the U.S. Department of Commerce. This collaboration has helped establish a new model to make market data more accessible, accurate, and transparent.

PYTH eyes $0.050 as bulls step in

The PYTH/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient despite the coin adding 9% to its value in the last 24 hours.

The technical indicators have flipped bullish, indicating that the bulls are now in control of the market. The RSI of 63 is well above the neutral 50 and would enter the overbought territory if the rally persists.

The MACD lines are also within the positive region, indicating a strong bullish bias. If the rally continues, PYTH could retest the $0.050 psychological level for the first time since March 17.

However, if the bears regain control, PYTH could retest the Thursday low of $0.038 over the next few hours or days.

Drift Protocol, a Solana-based decentralized exchange (DEX), said Friday it had opened onchain contact with wallets tied to funds stolen in the exploit that outside firms have estimated at roughly $280 million to $286 million.

Drift said on X that it had initiated onchain contact with wallets holding the stolen Ether (ETH), seeking to open a line of communication.

The team sent onchain messages from its Ethereum address (0x0934faC) to four wallets linked to the exploiter at the time of publication, urging the attacker to reach out via Blockscan chat. “We are ready to speak,” Drift said.

Onchain messaging has become a common tactic in exploit response, allowing protocols to communicate directly with attackers while preserving anonymity. In past cases, such as the Euler Finance hack, similar outreach led to the partial recovery of funds.

Anonymous sender tries to pressure the attacker

Drift’s communication came hours after an unknown sender using the ENS name readnow.eth also reached out to wallets linked to the attacker on Thursday via onchain messages.

The sender claimed to know the identities behind the attack and demanded a payment of 1,000 ETH in exchange for withholding information.

The claims could not be independently verified and may represent an attempt to mislead or pressure the wallet holder. The incident highlights how, alongside official communications, unverified messages can circulate onchain after crypto exploits.

Solana fallout keeps spreading

According to SolanaFloor, Drift’s exploit has so far affected at least 20 Solana protocols, including the decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Gauntlet, which was estimated to be impacted to the scale of $6.4 million.

Blockchain security platform Cyvers said the impact was still expanding as of Friday morning, with no funds being recovered 48 hours past the attack.

Cyvers said that the attack was likely a “weeks-long, staged operation,” noting that the attacker set up durable nonces, a Solana feature allowing users to pre-sign transactions for future execution, days before the exploit.

Related: Crypto hackers steal $169M from 34 DeFi protocols in Q1: DefiLlama

“This closely mirrors the Bybit hack, different technique, same root issue: signers unknowingly approving malicious transactions,” Cyvers added.

Some industry observers, including Ledger chief technology officer Charles Guillemet, suggested the exploit may involve North Korea-linked actors, though details remain unconfirmed.

Magazine: Nobody knows if quantum secure cryptography will even work