Scan the news and there are plenty of reasons for worry: continued U.S.-Iran escalation risks, mounting sovereign debt and rising bond yields among them. Crypto carries its own set of concerns, including regulatory disappointments, weak demand and hack risks.

Yet crypto, stocks, bonds and even commodity markets remain sanguine. That is clear from implied-volatility readings across these markets. Implied volatility is a measure of expected price turbulence, and is calculated from the demand for options and other derivatives used to hedge against wild swings and uncertainty.

Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has dropped back to a 2026-low near 36%, reversing the minor pop to nearly 38% earlier this week, according to data source TradingView. The same is true for ether, the second-largest digital asset market value.

Wall Street’s VIX index, often called a “fear gauge” tracking uncertainty and volatility in the S&P 500, has declined to the lowest level since January. The Treasury market equivalent, MOVE, is also under pressure, hovering near the lower end of its multi-month range of 66% to 84%. Even gold and oil volatility indexes are falling.

Stablecoin payments company RedotPay delayed a planned $1 billion U.S. IPO to deal with legal issues, Bloomberg reported Friday, citing people familiar with the decision.

The listing, initially planned for this year, is unlikely to take place before 2027, the people told the financial news organization.

“Our strategy continues to focus on global regulatory compliance and business growth,” a RedotPay spokesperson told CoinDesk via Telegram. “This week we obtained a money transmitter license in the U.S. We are preparing to launch our product in the U.S.”

The spokesperson declined to comment on the IPO plan, which emerged in February. Hong Kong-based RedotPay is said to have tapped JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Jeffries for the potential listing. 

RedotPay, which describes itself as the world’s largest stablecoin payment card issuer, faces a $470 million lawsuit lodged by Binance in Hong Kong alleging that it poached roughly 470,000 users when both firms had an agreement. Under the accord, the crypto exchange allowed its customers to use Binance Pay funds on RedotPay to convert crypto to fiat currency. Binance filed a parallel case in Singapore.

The RedotPay spokesperson said the company, which hit unicorn status in September, reported a record-high 8.5 million users in the second quarter and a record $180 million in annualized revenue. It reported nearly $12 billion in annualized revenue and 8 million users in the first quarter.

RedotPay has reportedly delayed a planned US initial public offering that could raise more than $1 billion as the Hong Kong stablecoin payments company works through regulatory approvals and legal disputes while preparing to enter the US market.

Bloomberg reported on Aug. 14, citing people familiar with the matter, that RedotPay had pushed back its listing plans as the company seeks regulatory approvals and deals with legal disputes involving Binance.

A spokesperson for RedotPay declined to comment on the timing of the IPO when contacted by crypto.news, but said the company had secured a US money transmitter license this week and was preparing to launch its products in the country.

“Our strategy continues to focus on global regulatory compliance and business growth,” the spokesperson said. “This week, we obtained a money transmitter license in the US. We are preparing to launch our product in the US.”

The spokesperson also said RedotPay reported record users, revenue, profit and margins in its Q2 2026 investor update, without providing figures for the period.

RedotPay IPO plans have faced a delay

RedotPay’s potential US listing first emerged in February, when the company was reported to be considering a New York IPO that could raise more than $1 billion and value the payments firm at over $4 billion.

At the time, previous coverage showed that RedotPay was working with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Jefferies Financial Group on the proposed transaction, with a listing considered possible during 2026.

Founded in Hong Kong in April 2023, RedotPay provides stablecoin-based payment services, including crypto payment cards, multicurrency wallets and global payouts. By February, the company had more than 6 million users across over 100 markets and was processing billions of dollars in annualized payment volume.

The firm had also raised $194 million during 2025. A $107 million Series B financing led its December funding round, with Goodwater Capital, Pantera Capital and Blockchain Capital among its backers.

Before the Series B, RedotPay secured $40 million in a Series A round backed by Lightspeed, Galaxy and HongShan. The financing helped the company reach unicorn status before reports about its potential US listing surfaced.

RedotPay has separately been discussing another private funding round of as much as $150 million, according to earlier reports. The talks have taken place while the company adjusts its organizational structure and continues preparations for a possible public offering.

“As we transition from an early-stage startup to a unicorn, we are evolving our organizational structure and talent pool to support our ongoing growth trajectory,” the company said in March.

Binance lawsuit has added a $473 million dispute

Alongside the regulatory work needed for its US expansion, RedotPay is facing claims from Binance affiliates in Hong Kong seeking nearly $473 million in damages.

The Binance-linked plaintiffs sued RedotPay’s founders earlier in August, alleging they used confidential information obtained during their previous employment with Binance to establish a competing payments company and move hundreds of thousands of Binance customers to the new platform.

According to the claims, the confidential material was allegedly used to help RedotPay build its payments business and attract users who previously used Binance. RedotPay has rejected the allegations and said it would “vigorously defend all claims.”

The dispute also extends to Singapore, where the two companies have offered conflicting accounts of the status of a related case.

RedotPay said earlier this week that it expected Binance to discontinue the Singapore proceedings following an Aug. 7 hearing. Binance disputed that account and said it had not withdrawn its claims.

Legal pressure around Binance has extended into several markets during 2026. In July, nearly 1,700 British investors filed a London lawsuit seeking at least £150 million, or roughly $200 million, from Binance, founder Changpeng Zhao and other defendants over alleged losses linked to crypto derivatives.

The UK claim alleges that leveraged tokens, futures and options were offered without the required regulatory authorization. Binance said it would defend itself against the allegations.

US launch adds to RedotPay’s payment expansion

While its IPO timetable has reportedly been pushed back, RedotPay’s newly obtained money transmitter license gives the company another regulatory approval as it prepares to offer its services in the US.

The company has already been extending its stablecoin payment services into other markets. In June 2025, RedotPay launched payments in Brazil after integrating Circle Payments Network into its platform.

The service allowed users to send crypto directly to Brazilian bank accounts, where the assets were automatically converted into Brazilian reais. RedotPay had more than 4 million users when the Brazil service was introduced.

Circle’s network was used to handle the crypto-to-fiat payment process without requiring prefunded accounts between participating institutions. RedotPay CEO Michael Gao said at the time that the Brazil launch was focused on reducing the cost and time involved in payments for users in emerging markets.

The company has since continued building its user base and payment infrastructure while pursuing licenses in jurisdictions where it plans to operate.

For its next expansion, RedotPay has not provided a launch date for its US product. The spokesperson said preparations are underway following the money transmitter license approval, while the company continues to focus on regulatory compliance and business growth.

RedotPay has also not disclosed when it could revive the delayed IPO process or whether its reported discussions with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Jefferies remain unchanged.

RedotPay’s plans for a US stock market debut have reportedly been delayed as the stablecoin payment company prepares to expand into the country.

The company delayed plans for a US initial public offering (IPO) while it seeks regulatory approvals and contends with legal disputes involving Binance, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

A RedotPay representative declined to comment on the timing of an IPO to Cointelegraph. The representative instead pointed to the company’s US expansion, saying RedotPay obtained a money transmitter license in the US this week and is preparing to launch its product in the country.

The reported setback follows a nearly $473 million lawsuit filed by Binance affiliates and comes as RedotPay works to expand its regulatory footprint in the US and other markets.

RedotPay’s IPO ambitions surfaced in February

RedotPay, founded in 2023 and based in Hong Kong, first emerged as a potential US public-market entrant in February, when reports surfaced that the company was considering a New York listing.

RedotPay has reportedly been working with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Jefferies Financial Group on a listing that could raise more than $1 billion. At the time, the company was seeking a valuation of more than $4 billion.

Related: Bithumb sets 2028 IPO timetable as it overhauls internal controls

Separately, RedotPay has reportedly been in talks to raise up to $150 million in new funding amid organizational changes and preparations for a potential IPO. “As we transition from an early-stage startup to a unicorn, we are evolving our organizational structure and talent pool to support our ongoing growth trajectory,” RedotPay told Cointelegraph in March.

Binance lawsuit adds legal pressure

Binance affiliates sued RedotPay’s founders in Hong Kong earlier in August, seeking nearly $473 million in damages over allegations that they diverted hundreds of thousands of customers from Binance to RedotPay.

The plaintiffs allege that RedotPay’s founders used confidential information obtained through their previous work with Binance to build a competing payments business and attract Binance users. RedotPay rejected the allegations and told Cointelegraph it would “vigorously defend all claims.”

The dispute has also spilled into Singapore, where Binance and RedotPay disagree over the fate of a related case. RedotPay told Cointelegraph this week that it expected Binance to discontinue the case, while Binance rejected that account and said its claims remain active.

Magazine: Inside the fake crypto startup that fooled North Korean IT workers

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The price of Ethereum has declined consistently over the last seven days. Many factors could be responsible for this trend, including the activity (buying and selling of ETH) of large traders, commonly known as whales.

Ethereum price chart for the last 7 days. Source: Coinmarketcap.com

To find out if whales are responsible, we analyzed Ethereum trading data for decentralized exchanges (DEX) from Dune Analytics for the last seven days and answered four important questions.

• Have large traders been buying or selling ETH?
• Has their activity increased or decreased over this period?
• Which whale groups are driving the activities and capital flows?
• Are these activities responsible for the ETH price decline?

We categorized whales into three cohorts, placing them in $100K–$500K, $500K–$1M, or $1M–$5M. The analysis shows that while whales have been active within this period, they are not directly responsible for the price decline.

No Strong Buying Or Selling Bias

The data shows that large DEX traders had a slight buying bias, buying approximately $358 million of WETH and selling approximately $352M during the period, with a $6M net difference. This difference isn’t significant, indicating a nearly balanced buying and selling pattern within the last seven days.

Whale buy vs sell volume for the last seven days. Source: Dune.com

High Volatility But No Clear Trend

Whale activity showed no clear trend over the last seven days, as there is no clear increase or decrease. However, sharp differences in activity are clear, with a huge decline over the weekend indicating significant volatility. This shows that large traders have been active in the market.

Whale activity showing volatility in the last 7 days. Source: Dune.com

Smaller Size Whales Drive Activity But Capital Flow

Large traders with amounts ranging from $100K–$500K accounted for 86% of whale activity by transaction count. This shows that moderately large traders were the most frequent participants over the period.

Whale trading counts. Source: Dune.com

However, the $1M–$5M cohort, with only 8.7% of trades, comes very close in terms of trading volume at 45.13%, compared to 45.64% for the $100K–$500K cohort. This indicates that while moderately sized whales are the most frequent participants, larger whales have a disproportionately greater impact on capital flows despite their significantly fewer transactions.

Whale trading volume in USD. Source: Dune.com

ETH Price Decline Unrelated To Whale Activity

Despite sharp differences in the large traders’ activities by day, ETH price declined consistently, while whale trading volume fluctuated without a corresponding trend over the period in focus. This shows that the price decline has no direct link with large trader activities in the last seven days.

Ethereum price with respect to whale activity. Source: Dune.com

Conclusion

The data reveals that while there is no clear trend in the activity of whales over the last seven days, ETH price continued to fall. The findings suggest that whale activity over this period is not directly responsible for the price decline.

However, the analysis only considers data for the last seven days, which may be too short a period to give an accurate picture of what is really going on. Also, the price decline may be driven by other factors such as general current sentiment among retail traders, who ultimately are the majority of the market.

An interesting direction to also consider, which this analysis doesn’t cover, would be to determine where large traders are sending their ETH to—whether to centralized exchanges (CEX) or to private wallets. The finding could give important insight into the minds of these big players and tell us what to expect from the market next.