Ethereum (ETH) is drawing fresh market attention as stablecoin activity, whale accumulation, and derivatives data point in different directions. 

Recent reports show stronger activity on Ethereum’s base layer, while analysts continue to track downside risks in price and leverage.

Coinbase Institutional said Ethereum has regained some ground relative to layer-2 networks as user activity and stablecoin balances tilt back toward the main chain. The firm also said stablecoin supply and tokenized asset values on Ethereum are near record levels and still showing positive momentum.

The report linked that trend to Ethereum’s role in composability and execution density. Coinbase Institutional also said ETH has outperformed major layer-2 tokens since October 2025, adding to the view that the network is regaining attention as stablecoin rules continue to evolve.

Ethereum traded at around $2,000 at the time of reporting, based on CoinGecko data. The token posted a slight gain over the past 24 hours, though it remained down 7% for the week. Its 24-hour trading volume stood at $13.6 billion, while market capitalization reached about $241.1 billion.

Crypto analyst CW said large holders have increased buying during the recent decline. He wrote that “the largest accumulation since the decline in ETH is taking place” and said 466,500 ETH moved into an accumulation address on March 26. According to the analyst, that marked the second-largest inflow seen in the current cycle.

While accumulation has increased, some market watchers remain cautious on price structure. Crypto Patel said ETH is reacting from a higher-time-frame fair value gap near $2,078 and described the recent setup as weak after a liquidity sweep and lower highs on the four-hour chart.

He said the market is showing “bearish continuation toward sell-side liquidity” and listed downside targets at $1,980, $1,800, and $1,500. He added that a four-hour close above $2,204 would invalidate that setup.

Record futures leverage adds pressure to the market setup

CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán said Ethereum’s Estimated Leverage Ratio reached 0.99495738 on March 27, its highest level on record. The metric compares futures open interest with ETH reserves on exchanges and shows how large derivatives exposure has become relative to available spot collateral.

Alemán said the reading points to a fragile market structure. He wrote that when leverage reaches extreme levels, even small price moves can trigger rapid liquidations and sharper volatility. That leaves traders watching both on-chain accumulation and derivatives pressure as Ethereum tests its next move.

Senator Elizabeth Warren has asked the U.S. Commerce Department to explain how it is assessing potential national-security risks linked to Bitmain Technologies, the Chinese-founded maker of a substantial share of the world’s Bitcoin mining hardware. The request follows prior reporting that Bitmain is under federal scrutiny, with a focus on whether its ASICS could pose espionage risks or threaten critical infrastructure.

In a letter dated Thursday, Warren urged Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to provide documents and communications related to Bitmain, citing a Bloomberg report on the matter. The inquiry signals a broader government interest in the national-security dimensions of foreign-manufactured mining equipment, as the sector becomes increasingly strategic for energy grids and cyber defense.

Key takeaways

• Senator Warren requested detailed documentation from the Commerce Department on Bitmain, citing a Bloomberg report about national-security concerns.
• The inquiry intersects with a long-running federal probe into Bitmain and potential risks to U.S. critical infrastructure, codenamed Operation Red Sunset and led by Homeland Security.
• Bitmain is pursuing a major expansion in the United States, planning to open its first U.S. ASIC manufacturing facility with production slated to begin in early 2026 and scale by the end of the year.
• U.S. authorities have previously halted shipments of Bitmain devices and scrutinized related Chinese chip firms for alleged ties to sanctioned entities, highlighting a broader regulatory tightening around mining hardware.
• In a separate development, a Trump-backed American Bitcoin Corp. has pursued large-scale Bitmain purchases, illustrating ongoing sector adoption amid geopolitical tensions.

Regulatory spotlight deepens around Bitmain

The Commerce Department is being pressed to shed light on how national-security considerations are weighed in evaluating Bitmain, which supplies a large portion of the global Bitcoin mining hardware ecosystem. The development comes amid a cluster of ongoing regulatory and anti-foreign-influence actions that have kept Bitmain in the crosshairs of U.S. policymakers.

The Bloomberg reporting framing Warren’s inquiry underscores how lawmakers are threading concerns about foreign tech supply chains with national-security risk governance. While the Commerce Department has not publicly released its conclusions, the request indicates growing congressional scrutiny of mining hardware suppliers from outside the United States, particularly those with ties to strategic sectors like semiconductors and telecommunications.

Unresolved probe and what it could mean for the sector

The Bitmain review, described in reports as Operation Red Sunset and led by Homeland Security, reportedly examined whether Bitmain’s ASIC machines could be exploited for espionage or to disrupt the U.S. power grid. Bloomberg noted that the probe’s current status is unclear and that national-security investigations of this type can extend for years without public resolution. The lack of a formal public outcome does not necessarily signal exoneration; it often reflects a prolonged, sensitive process where details remain classified or undisclosed.

Industry observers have pointed to the broader risk dynamics for miners and equipment suppliers who depend on global supply chains and are subject to shifting regulatory overlays. The uncertainty surrounding the Bitmain probe adds another layer of caution for investors and operators evaluating hardware procurement in a climate where security concerns increasingly influence partnerships and deployment decisions.

Bitmain’s U.S. manufacturing ambitions under the microscope

Amid the scrutiny, Bitmain has signaled its ambition to establish a significant U.S. manufacturing footprint. Bloomberg reported in mid-2023 that Bitmain planned to open its first U.S.-based ASIC production facility, with initial chip manufacturing anticipated to begin in early 2026 and scale later in the year. The move would mark a notable shift in the hardware supply chain, potentially reducing dependence on overseas fabrication while inviting heightened regulatory attention from U.S. authorities.

Cointelegraph reached out to Warren and Bitmain for comment, but neither had provided a response by publication. The timing of a U.S. facility aligns with a period of renewed interest in domestic mining infrastructure, even as the regulatory environment remains unsettled for equipment sourced from abroad.

Market dynamics, adoption, and the political backdrop

Bitmain’s mining hardware remains widely deployed among U.S. and global operators. The company’s machines appear in operations across the sector, including instances where high-profile investors are involved in mining ventures. In one notable case, American Bitcoin Corp.—a Trump-aligned project—reported a large-scale procurement of Bitmain rigs, agreeing to acquire 16,000 Bitmain ASICs in a deal valued at about $314 million. The arrangement illustrates ongoing demand for Bitmain’s hardware even as the company faces heightened regulatory attention and potential geopolitical risk factors.

The broader market context is also shaped by competitiveness among ASIC manufacturers. A Cambridge University–backed industry report shows a concentrated market share among a small set of large producers, highlighting how hardware supply shifts can influence mining economics, efficiency, and resilience in the face of policy changes. As regulators weigh security considerations against economic incentives for domestic manufacturing, investors and operators are watching how supply chains will adapt to potential restraints, export controls, or licensing requirements.

The regulatory backdrop also includes prior actions—such as halted shipments of Bitmain devices and investigations into related Chinese chip firms over alleged links to sanctioned entities—as well as a 2024 federal review flagging concerns about deploying Bitmain machines near U.S. military installations. These elements collectively frame a sector where security, diplomacy, and economics are increasingly interwoven into everyday mining decisions.

Overall, the trajectory for Bitmain in 2026 and beyond will hinge on how Commerce and homeland-security authorities balance innovation, national-security safeguards, and the evolving geostrategic calculus of semiconductor and crypto infrastructure supply chains. As the government’s position becomes clearer, miners and investors will need to adjust their risk models to incorporate regulatory developments, potential licensing regimes, and the possibility of shifts in supplier dynamics.

Readers should monitor whether the Commerce Department provides formal responses to Senator Warren’s requests and how the Red Sunset probe evolves, as any developments could influence Bitmain’s U.S. plans, the availability of mining hardware, and the broader regulatory environment governing crypto infrastructure in the United States.

Bitcoin (BTC) moved lower this week after another failed attempt to break above $72,000. The decline pulled the wider crypto market down, while a few smaller tokens moved against the broader trend.

Bitcoin started the week under pressure after it failed to clear higher resistance levels. The asset had already lost momentum near $76,000 in the previous week and then traded around $70,000 over the weekend before falling to $67,500 on Monday as traditional markets reopened.

Later that day, Bitcoin rose close to $72,000 after US President Donald Trump said the United States and Iran had reached a de-escalation deal. That move did not last. Iran rejected the statement, and Bitcoin quickly fell back toward $69,000.

Bitcoin returned to the $72,000 area on Wednesday, which marked its weekly high. Sellers then regained control and pushed the asset back to $69,000 by Friday. The decline continued into the weekend, sending Bitcoin to $65,500 on some exchanges, its lowest level since early March.

The move left Bitcoin down by more than $6,000 in 48 hours. At the time of reporting, the asset had recovered slightly and traded above $66,000, but it still showed a weekly loss of around 6%. Its market capitalization dropped to about $1.325 trillion, while its market share slipped below 56%.

Large-cap altcoins track Bitcoin lower

Most large-cap altcoins also moved down during the same period. Ethereum fell below the $2,000 mark, Binance Coin traded just above $610, and XRP remained below $1.35 after testing resistance near $1.30 earlier in the week.

The weakness in major tokens added pressure to the overall market. Total crypto market value fell by about $60 billion from Friday’s peak and stood near $2.37 trillion, showing that risk appetite remained weak across the sector.

However,  SIREN was one of the few tokens to post a sharp gain during the latest market drop. The AI-linked token rose more than 100% in 24 hours and traded above $1.60 at press time. Even so, it remained over 50% below its recent all-time high of $3.60 reached earlier this week.

Other altcoins showed a mixed picture. AAVE fell by 5%, while HASH lost 9% on the day. Bitcoin Cash and CC posted gains of more than 3%, making them rare movers higher as most of the market stayed under pressure.

The crypto industry’s reaction was that a quantum computing threat was still distant when Google unveiled its Willow quantum chip in December 2024.

Bitcoin uses SHA-256 for mining and ECDSA for signatures, both of which are theoretically vulnerable to quantum decryption, but the consensus was that the threat was decades away. Breaking encryption would require millions of physical qubits (a unit of information in quantum systems). Willow had just 105.

That story has marginally changed sixteen months later, and Google isn’t dismissing anything.

The company announced this week that it is setting a 2029 deadline to migrate its authentication services to post-quantum cryptography, citing progress in quantum hardware, error correction, and factoring resource estimates.

Google’s security engineering team wrote that quantum computers “will pose a significant threat to current cryptographic standards, and specifically to encryption and digital signatures,” and that the threat to digital signatures specifically “requires the transition to PQC prior to a cryptographically relevant quantum computer.”

These risks are not theoretical. The Android 17 mobile operating system is already integrating post-quantum digital signature protection. Chrome already supports post-quantum key exchange. Google Cloud offers post-quantum solutions to enterprise customers.

Here’s why it matters

Classical computers process information as bits, each one either a 0 or a 1, and solve problems by checking possibilities one at a time. Quantum computers use qubits that can exist as both 0 and 1 simultaneously, a property called superposition, which lets them explore vast numbers of possibilities in parallel.

For most everyday tasks, the advantage is negligible. But for specific problems like factoring the large prime numbers that underpin modern encryption, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could solve in minutes what would take a classical machine longer than the age of the universe.

Bitcoin uses ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) to sign transactions, which is exactly the category of cryptography Google flagged as requiring migration before a quantum computer capable of breaking it arrives.

A sufficiently powerful quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could derive private keys from public keys, allowing an attacker to spend any bitcoin whose public key has been exposed on the blockchain.

Shor’s is a quantum computing method that can crack the math protecting passwords and wallets exponentially faster than normal computers.

When CoinDesk wrote about Willow in December 2024, the math was reassuring. Chris Osborn, founder of Solana ecosystem project Dialect, laid it out clearly at the time: roughly 5,000 logical qubits are needed to run Shor’s algorithm against current encryption, and each logical qubit requires thousands of physical qubits for error correction.

That meant millions of physical qubits, against Willow’s 105. The gap seemed enormous.

What’s changed isn’t the qubit count. It’s the error correction trajectory and the institutional response. Google went from demonstrating “below threshold” error correction, meaning they could turn noisy physical qubits into usable logical ones for the first time, to setting a corporate migration deadline in 16 months.

When the company that builds the quantum computers urges developers to migrate by 2029, that’s a signal that the gap is closing faster than the public timeline suggests.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin was already calling for urgency in October 2024, a month before the Willow announcement.

“Quantum computing experts such as Scott Aaronson have also recently started taking the possibility of quantum computers actually working in the medium term much more seriously,” Buterin wrote at the time.

“This has consequences across the entire Ethereum roadmap: it means that each piece of the Ethereum protocol that currently depends on elliptic curves will need to have some hash-based or otherwise quantum-resistant replacement.”

How Ethereum and Bitcoin developers are responding

The contrast with how the two largest blockchain networks are responding could not be sharper.

The Ethereum Foundation treated that as a directive and built accordingly. Eight years of work, now visible in weekly shipping devnets and a public roadmap with fork-level specificity.

Bitcoin’s governance model makes this kind of coordinated response structurally harder. There is no Ethereum Foundation equivalent to fund and direct a multi-year engineering effort.

Protocol changes require broad consensus among a decentralized developer community that has historically moved slowly and deliberately, a feature for stability but a liability when facing a deadline.

The last major cryptographic upgrade to Bitcoin, Taproot, took years of discussion before activation in 2021.

Ethereum launched pq.ethereum.org this week, a dedicated hub for its post-quantum security effort that has been underway since 2018. The Ethereum Foundation’s post-quantum team, cryptography team, protocol architecture team, and protocol coordination team have spent eight years building toward a migration that touches every layer of the protocol.

More than 10 client teams are shipping weekly devnets through what the foundation calls PQ Interop. The roadmap maps specific milestones across four upcoming hard forks, from a post-quantum key registry to full PQ consensus.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, has no equivalent effort. No coordinated roadmap. No multi-team engineering program. No fork milestones.

Nic Carter, one of Bitcoin’s most prominent advocates and co-founder of crypto fund Castle Island Ventures, said the quiet part out loud this week.

“Elliptic curve cryptography is on the brink of obsolescence,” he wrote on X. “Whether it’s 3 or 10 years, it’s over and we need to accept that. The only thing that matters is how quickly blockchain developers recognize that they need to bake in cryptographic mutability into their networks.”

Carter contrasted the two approaches directly. Ethereum’s approach, he said, was “best in class,” describing how the network “gets together and announces a specific, detailed PQ roadmap by 2029, sets it as top strategic priority, folds PQ into ongoing roadmap, detailed FAQ, no fear, just action.”

Bitcoin’s approach, Carter said, was “worst in class.” He noted there is currently one group working on a quantum-related proposal that has “received zero buy-in from top devs,” with developers pointing to isolated pieces of research as evidence of progress while having “no coherent strategy, no roadmap.”

“Everyone knows I’m a bitcoiner and would like bitcoin to win,” Carter added. “Not saying this to hurt feelings. Saying this to spur action.”

The urgency isn’t universally shared, however.

Firms such as CoinShares argue that fears of an imminent quantum threat to bitcoin are overstated, and it estimates that only about 10,200 BTC is concentrated enough in vulnerable legacy address types that its theft could cause “appreciable market disruption.”

The remaining exposed supply, roughly 1.6 million BTC in older Pay-to-Public-Key addresses, is scattered across more than 32,000 separate wallets averaging about 50 BTC each, making them slow and unprofitable to crack individually, as CoinDesk reported at the time.

But the question isn’t whether quantum computing will eventually threaten blockchain cryptography. Google, the Ethereum Foundation, NIST, and now prominent Bitcoin advocates all agree it will.

It is whether three years is enough time to migrate a global, decentralized protocol that has no central authority to set deadlines, no coordinated engineering team to execute them, and a culture that treats urgency with suspicion.

Ethereum’s answer is that eight years of preparation put it in a position to execute the migration across four hard forks. Google’s answer is that 2029 is the deadline, and the migration is already underway in its products.

Bitcoin’s answer, so far, is silence. And as Carter warned, “ETHBTC will start to reflect the divergence in prioritization” if that silence continues.

TLDR:

• Stablecoin transaction volume has surpassed $30 trillion annually, now matching Visa’s total processing scale.
  
• CFOs and corporate boards are actively exploring stablecoin integration for treasury and payment operations.
  
• Stablecoins offer instant settlement, borderless reach, and lower costs that traditional banking cannot match.
  
• The real winners of the stablecoin shift will be builders of payment layers and settlement networks, not token holders.

Stablecoin transaction volume has crossed the $30 trillion mark annually, a figure that now rivals Visa’s total processing volume.

This shift marks a turning point in how global money moves. Businesses, financial officers, and corporate boards are beginning to take notice.

The numbers suggest stablecoins are no longer a niche crypto product. They are becoming core infrastructure for modern financial settlement and cross-border payments.

Stablecoins Step Into the Role of Global Payment Rails

The scale of stablecoin activity has caught the attention of mainstream finance. Crypto analyst Lucky noted that stablecoins are “quietly handling real-world volume — not speculation, actual usage.” That distinction matters greatly to corporate finance teams evaluating payment solutions.

Traditional banking systems operate within fixed hours and geographic limits. Stablecoins, by contrast, offer instant settlement with no banking hours and borderless reach.

For businesses managing international transactions, these features reduce friction and cut costs considerably.

CFOs and treasurers are now asking direct questions about stablecoin integration. The technology solves practical problems that traditional banking has long struggled with. Lower transaction costs and near-instant finality make stablecoins attractive for corporate treasury operations.

As a result, stablecoins are moving from speculative interest to boardroom conversation. Companies across industries are examining how stablecoin rails can fit into existing payment workflows. This transition is happening gradually but with clear momentum.

Crypto Infrastructure Quietly Reshapes the Financial System

Lucky drew a broader pattern connecting major technology shifts to dominant outcomes. The internet moved information, social media moved attention, and crypto introduced digital ownership. Now, stablecoins are positioned to move money at scale globally.

This framing places stablecoins within a longer arc of technological disruption. Rather than replacing banks, crypto is embedding itself into the financial system as a backend layer. Settlement networks and payment layers are where the real structural change is occurring.

The winners in this shift, according to Lucky, will not simply be token holders. They will be the builders of payment infrastructure, settlement networks, and real-world financial integrations. The value is moving toward utility, not speculation.

History shows that infrastructure shifts are often missed until they become unavoidable. Most participants in previous technology cycles recognized the change only after it had already taken hold.

The stablecoin transition appears to be following a similar path, moving steadily beneath the surface of mainstream financial awareness.

TLDR:

• Senator Warren sent a formal letter to Commerce Secretary Lutnick seeking Bitmain-related national security documents.
  
• Federal probe “Operation Red Sunset” examined whether Bitmain rigs could spy on or sabotage the US power grid.
  
• American Bitcoin Corp., backed by Eric and Donald Trump Jr., purchased 16,000 Bitmain rigs for $314 million.
  
• Warren urged Commerce to prevent politically connected crypto firms from influencing national security decisions.

Senator Elizabeth Warren has raised concerns about Bitmain Technologies, a Chinese Bitcoin mining company, amid a federal investigation into potential national security threats.

She sent a formal letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick requesting documents on the matter. Warren also sought clarity on any communications between Bitmain, the Trump family, and the Commerce Department.

Warren Targets Bitmain Over Federal Security Investigation

The Massachusetts senator’s letter came after Bloomberg News reported a federal probe called “Operation Red Sunset.” The investigation started under the Biden administration and focused on Bitmain’s hardware.

Authorities sought to determine whether the machines could be used for spying. There were also concerns about possible sabotage of the American power grid.

The current status of Operation Red Sunset remains unclear to the public. National security investigations can run for years without any public legal proceedings.

The Department of Homeland Security, which led the probe, did not respond to comment requests. Bitmain also declined to respond to the latest inquiries.

Bitmain previously denied the allegations, calling the reports “seriously inconsistent with the facts and constitute false news.”

The company maintained that it “strictly complies with US and applicable laws and regulations and has never engaged in activities that pose risks to US national security.” Those statements were made in response to the Bloomberg News report last year.

A May 2024 federal review had already flagged concerns about a Bitmain-operated site near a US military base, noting “significant national security concerns.”

A Senate Intelligence Committee report from July also named Bitmain’s devices as presenting “several disturbing vulnerabilities” to the US.

The report stated those devices could potentially be manipulated from China. These findings added weight to Warren’s request for answers.

Trump Family Ties to Bitmain Draw Scrutiny

Among Bitmain’s notable clients is American Bitcoin Corp., a firm connected to the Trump family. Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. are both investors in American Bitcoin.

The company signed a contract to acquire 16,000 Bitmain rigs for $314 million last year. That deal drew attention given the ongoing federal interest in Bitmain.

A spokesman for American Bitcoin said the company had conducted extensive security tests on Bitmain’s devices. The tests found no vulnerabilities allowing remote access.

The spokesman stated the company believes that when Bitmain’s devices “are deployed within modern industrial security standards, they do not present a credible risk to the United States power grid or to national security.” American Bitcoin did not respond to the most recent requests for comment.

Warren’s letter asked Commerce to clarify what actions it has taken to prevent conflicts of interest. She specifically asked about steps taken to “insulate the Commerce Department’s national security decisions from the influence of firms that have business ties to the Trump family.”

Commerce holds authority to investigate foreign threats to information and communications technology. However, Democrats remain in the Senate minority and cannot compel a formal response.

Warren made her position clear, writing that “we must ensure that politically connected crypto interests do not receive special treatment and undermine our national security.” The Commerce Department had not responded to comment requests at the time of publication.

TLDR:

• Pakistan delivered Washington’s 15-point peace plan to Iran on the same day Chinese warships docked in Karachi.
  
• Gwadar Port, operated by China under a 40-year lease, sits 400 km from Hormuz and bypasses the blocked strait entirely.
  
• Hormuz traffic has collapsed over 90 percent, with Iran collecting yuan tolls and drafting laws to make them permanent.
  
• Pakistan owes China over $30 billion and sources 81 percent of its arms from Beijing while holding U.S. ally status.

Pakistan finds itself at the center of a growing geopolitical puzzle as the Strait of Hormuz crisis deepens. The country is actively mediating between the United States and Iran while simultaneously hosting China’s most strategic maritime bypass.

Analysts are now watching Islamabad closely. Pakistan holds Major Non-NATO Ally status with Washington, owes Beijing over $30 billion, and operates a port that becomes more valuable the longer Hormuz stays closed.

Pakistan’s Dual Role in the Hormuz Standoff

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed by over 90 percent. Iran is currently collecting yuan-denominated tolls from Chinese-linked vessels passing through the strait. Bloomberg reports that Iran’s parliament is drafting legislation to make these tolls permanent.

On March 25, Pakistan delivered a 15-point American peace plan to Tehran. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed this at a Cabinet meeting, describing the mediation channel as “strong and positive.” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has also offered to host direct face-to-face talks between the parties.

On the very same day, PLA Navy Ship Daqing docked in Karachi. The vessel is participating in Sea Guardian IV, joint naval drills with Pakistan running through April 2. These exercises are taking place in the Arabian Sea, the same waters where Gwadar Port operates.

Analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera noted the timing on social media: “Pakistan is the only country on earth that profits from both outcomes of this war.” This observation has since circulated widely among geopolitical observers.

Pakistan receives 81 percent of its arms from China, according to SIPRI data. That dependency, combined with its American alliance and active mediation role, places Islamabad in a structurally unique position during this crisis.

Gwadar Port and the CPEC Bypass Corridor

Gwadar Port sits approximately 400 kilometers from the Strait of Hormuz on the Balochistan coast. China Overseas Port Holding Company operates it under a 40-year lease. It serves as the southwestern terminal of the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

CPEC connects the Arabian Sea directly to China’s Xinjiang region through 3,000 kilometers of roads, railways, and pipelines.

According to CPEC planning documents, this route cuts China’s Middle Eastern energy import distance from 12,000 kilometers by sea to roughly 2,500 kilometers overland.

Every barrel of oil that cannot pass through Hormuz strengthens the economic argument for routing energy through CPEC instead. A permanent Iranian toll regime at the strait would further accelerate Chinese investment in this overland alternative.

Iran’s fifth ceasefire condition currently demands permanent sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. If any version of that condition is accepted, the yuan toll system could gain international legitimacy. China stands to benefit most from that outcome.

The Sea Guardian drills conclude on April 2. The Trump administration’s diplomatic deadline falls on April 6. That four-day gap separates the end of Chinese military exercises in Pakistan’s waters from a moment when the largest American military buildup since 2003 either acts or withdraws. Pakistan’s position between these two timelines is not coincidental.

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its decline on Friday as traders reacted to the year’s largest options expiry and continued caution in crypto ETF flows. 

Consequently, the drop pushed the asset to its lowest level in more than three weeks, even as some market signals pointed to rising accumulation and possible oversold conditions.

Bitcoin fell to as low as $65,500 on Friday, its weakest level since March 2. At the time of writing, BTC traded near $66,300, down 2% over 24 hours and 6% over the past week (per CoinGecko’s data).

Meanwhile, the move came as roughly $14 billion in Bitcoin options expired, based on open interest. That expiry added pressure to an already cautious market and pushed traders toward a more defensive stance during the session.

ETF activity also remained in focus as investors continued pulling funds from spot Bitcoin products. Data showed that investors withdrew $171 million from spot ETFs on Thursday, adding to short-term pressure on price action.

Still, the broader monthly picture looked more balanced. March recorded about $1.4 billion in net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs after four straight months of net outflows, showing that demand had not fully disappeared despite the latest setback.

While price remained under pressure, on-chain data pointed to continued buying from large holders and smaller wallets. According to Santiment, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC added 61,568 BTC over the past month, a 0.45% increase.

Smaller holders also showed similar behavior. Wallets with less than 0.01 BTC increased their balances by 0.42% over the same period, nearly matching the pace seen among whales and sharks.

Analysts watch for oversold bounce

Market watchers also pointed to oversold signals as Bitcoin traded well below its October 2025 all-time high above $126,000. Current pricing left BTC down 47.42% from that peak, while its market capitalization stood near $1.33 trillion.

Crypto analyst XO said March could mark only the second time Bitcoin posts six straight losing months if the month closes in the red. He wrote, 

“If April sees an early sweep into the $55–60K range, it could create a compelling setup for mean-reversion longs.” 

He also said that the higher timeframe trend would stay in control unless a clear structural shift appears.