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Ethereum Enters Capitulation Zone as MVRV Turns Negative: Bottom Near?

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Latest Bitcoin & Ethereum News, Crypto Prices & Indexes

Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has slipped into a zone that market watchers associate with capitulation, as on-chain signals flash bearish, yet opt for caution on whether a definitive bottom is in place. The focal point is the MVRV Z-Score, a gauge that compares current market value to the realized value, effectively measuring how much investors are paying relative to the price at which Ether last moved. A reading around -0.42 indicates Ether is trading below its realized value, a sign historically linked to stress but not a sole predictor of a lasting bottom. While some analysts argue this signals a clear capitulation phase, others warn that the current slide may not reach the extremes observed in past bear markets.

The MVRV Z-Score was designed to flag phases of euphoria or capitulation by showing when market value diverges markedly from realized value. In practice, a notably negative score has preceded bottoming behavior in prior cycles, albeit without a guaranteed timetable. Joao Wedson, a crypto Quant analyst and founder of Alphractal, described the current reading as “showing that Ethereum is indeed going through a clear capitulation process.” Yet, he cautioned that today’s data do not match the intensity of the 2018 and 2022 bear-market lows. The record low for the metric sits at -0.76, observed in December 2018, underscoring the scale of the slide that would be needed for a historical parallel.

Ether MVRV Z-Score tanks below zero in capitulation. Source: Alphractal 

The near-term horizon, however, remains contested. Wedson noted that further downside is possible before any sustained recovery takes hold, citing continued market stress and the possibility of liquidity constraints during tax season. “The market is already under stress, but historically, there is still room for further downside before a definitive structural bottom is formed,” he said. Ether’s price action has been volatile, with a sharp decline followed by a tentative rebound, complicating the call on whether the capitulation phase is nearing its end.

The recent price action has been punishing: Ether has fallen about 30% over the past two weeks, sinking to a bear-market low near $1,825 on a Friday before a modest rebound to roughly $2,100 on the following Monday. The moves come amid broader macro fragility and shifting risk sentiment within crypto markets, prompting both caution and opportunism among analysts. Some traders and researchers see this as a rare “buy fear” window, while others warn that risk remains elevated until on-chain dynamics confirm a bottom.

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HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun told Cointelegraph that historical performance has reinforced the view that Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score can be a reliable indicator for identifying bottoming zones, particularly when combined with evolving on-chain activity and long-term ecosystem development. “Judging by on-chain activity, protocol evolution, and long-term ecosystem structure, Ethereum’s fundamentals have not seen any substantive deterioration. On the contrary, they continue to improve across several key dimensions,” he said. Still, Sun stressed that current trajectories could change if the primary drivers of decline persist, suggesting that a definitive bottom remains contingent on future liquidity and demand signals.

Meanwhile, other observers offered a more optimistic read. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund, argued that the drawdown presents a rare opportunity to consider ETH as an investable bet, noting a substantial gap between the current price and the “fair price” implied by the MVRV ratio. “I think that this is a tremendous opportunity to be looking at ETH,” he tweeted, positing that negative deviations historically precede substantial recoveries when macro and on-chain conditions align. The narrative held that Ether’s network metrics and the broader ecosystem strength underpin a case for accumulation once the weak hands have been flushed out.

Other voices joined the chorus of potential catalysts for a rebound. Andri Fauzan Adziima, Bitrue’s research lead, suggested that persistent negative MVRV zones have historically preceded strong recoveries in subsequent cycles. He contended that ETH’s network fundamentals remained robust and that a long-term accumulation stance could emerge once price risk subsides. “Brutal capitulation now, but historically one of the best ‘buy fear’ windows for ETH,” Adziima said, underscoring the tension between near-term price action and longer-term structural factors.

ETH prices have tanked back to long-term cycle lows. Source: TradingView

Market participants acknowledged that the current pullback may be overshadowed by longer-term catalysts such as network upgrades and continued ecosystem maturation, even as price action remains sensitive to near-term liquidity and macro dynamics. The narrative that “buying fear” can yield outsized returns if followed by demand recovery continues to gain traction among several traders, though it remains balanced by caution regarding April liquidity and potential tax-related squeezes.

One of the best “buy fear” windows for Ether

Despite the caution, several observers argued that the current environment could present one of the more compelling entry points for ETH in recent memory. Van de Poppe’s commentary echoed a view shared by others that a sharp deviation below fair value can precede a robust rebound when demand returns and on-chain indicators resume strengthening. The notion is that ETH’s price could be primed for a longer-term recovery even if the immediate path remains choppy.

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As the debate continues, sentiment remains nuanced. Some participants emphasize that negative MVRV conditions have historically aligned with durable recoveries once the weak hands capitulate, while others warn that liquidity constraints around the April tax season could delay any sustained recovery. The balance between on-chain fundamentals and macro stressors will likely shape Ether’s trajectory over the coming weeks and into the next quarter.

For investors watching the tape, the key takeaway is that volatility may persist even as underlying fundamentals show resilience. The combination of a negative MVRV reading and persistent price pressure suggests that any bottoming process will require a convergence of favorable liquidity and sustained demand, rather than a simple technical bounce.

Why it matters

The ongoing discussion around Ether’s valuation and bottoming prospects matters for multiple stakeholders. For traders, MVRV-based indicators provide a framework to interpret on-chain signals amid price volatility, while investors may view the current setup as an opportunity to accumulate at a discount relative to realized value. For developers and ecosystem participants, the narrative about Ethereum’s fundamentals—network activity, upgrade timelines, and long-term growth—matters for capital allocation, governance engagement, and potential product developments that could draw renewed user interest.

From a market-wide perspective, Ethereum’s fate remains a bellwether for risk appetite in crypto markets. A clear bottom in ETH could bolster sentiment across altcoins and contribute to a broader risk-on environment, while a protracted drawdown could reinforce caution and delay recovery for other assets. In either case, the episode underscores the importance of on-chain metrics as a corroborating lens for price action, beyond headlines and short-term moves.

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What to watch next

  • Monitor liquidity conditions around the April tax season for potential downside or relief catalysts.
  • Track on-chain indicators related to MVRV Z-Score and general network activity to assess whether a structural bottom forms.
  • Watch for sustained price stabilization above recent lows and any acceleration in demand signals that could precede a rebound.
  • Observe broader macro factors and crypto market flows that could influence risk sentiment and capital allocation.

Sources & verification

  • On-chain MVRV Z-Score interpretation and commentary by Joao Wedson of Alphractal (tweet/status referenced in the article).
  • Cointelegraph reports on Ether’s 30% decline over a two-week period and the subsequent move to around $2,100.
  • HashKey Group insights from Tim Sun regarding MVRV Z-Score reliability and Ethereum fundamentals.
  • Industry commentary from Michaël van de Poppe and Bitrue’s Andri Fauzan Adziima on negative MVRV zones and potential buy opportunities.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Aims Recovery While USD/JPY Gives Back Recent Gains

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Aims Recovery While USD/JPY Gives Back Recent Gains

EUR/USD is recovering losses from 1.1450. USD/JPY is correcting gains from 160.50 and might decline further below 158.00.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

· The Euro struggled to stay in a positive zone and declined below 1.1600 before finding support.

· There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1575 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.

· USD/JPY rallied significantly before the bears appeared near 160.45.

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· There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 159.20 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from 1.1640. The Euro declined below 1.1600 and 1.1520 against the US Dollar.

The pair even declined below 1.1500 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 1.1445 zone. A low was formed at 1.1443, and the pair is now recovering losses. There was a move above 1.1500 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The pair surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1639 swing high to the 1.1443 low. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 61.8% Fib retracement and 1.1575. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1575.

The first major hurdle for the bulls could be 1.1605. An upside break above 1.1605 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1640.

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If not, the pair might drop again. Immediate support is near 1.1520. The next key area of interest might be 1.1480 or the 50-hour simple moving average. If there is a downside break below 1.1480, the pair could drop toward 1.1445. The main target for the bears on the EUR/USD chart could be 1.1400, below which the pair could start a major decline.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a steady decline from well above the 160.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bearish momentum below 159.50 against the Japanese Yen.

The pair even settled below 159.00 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low was formed at 158.44, and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the downside, the first major support is near 158.45.

The next key region for the bulls might be 158.00. If there is a close below 158.00, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward 156.80. Any more losses might send the pair toward 155.00.

Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 160.46 swing high to the 158.44 low at 158.90.

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If there is a close above 158.90 and the hourly RSI moves above 50, the pair could rise toward 159.20. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 159.20. The next major barrier for the bulls could be near the 50% Fib retracement level at 159.45, above which the pair could test 160.00 in the coming days.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Franklin Templeton launches crypto division with 250 Digital acquisition

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Franklin Templeton launches crypto division with 250 Digital acquisition

Wall Street asset management giant Franklin Templeton is launching a dedicated cryptocurrency division as it deepens its push into digital assets, anchored by a planned acquisition of crypto investment firm 250 Digital.

The new unit, called Franklin Crypto, will bring together the 250 Digital team and its liquid crypto strategies — previously managed by CoinFund — under one structure aimed at institutional investors, the firm said Wednesday.

Former CoinFund executive Christopher Perkins will lead the division, with Seth Ginns serving as chief investment officer alongside Franklin Templeton digital assets executive Tony Pecore. The group will report to Sandy Kaul, the firm’s head of innovation.

The move builds on Franklin Templeton’s existing digital asset business, which manages about $1.8 billion, and signals a shift toward offering more active crypto investment strategies alongside its current products.

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“This is an exciting addition for Franklin Templeton,” CEO Jenny Johnson said, adding that the deal strengthens the firm’s ability to deliver dedicated crypto expertise to clients globally.

The launch of Franklin Crypto reflects a broader trend among large asset managers that are moving beyond passive exposure, such as exchange-traded funds, toward building in-house capabilities.

Perkins said the effort is aimed at meeting that demand. “Crypto’s institutional moment has arrived,” he said, pointing to growing interest from large investors seeking structured exposure to digital assets.

The transaction also includes an experimental element: part of the consideration will be paid using BENJI tokens, linked to Franklin Templeton’s on-chain U.S. Government Money Fund. The fund uses blockchain infrastructure to process transactions and record ownership.

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That approach suggests early steps toward conducting mergers and acquisitions using tokenized assets, with settlement occurring more directly on blockchain rails.

The acquisition is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to approvals and other conditions. Financial terms were not disclosed.

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Avalanche (AVAX) gains 4% as index moves higher

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9am CoinDesk 20 Update for 2026-04-01: vertical

CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 1968.28, up 1.0% (+20.29) since yesterday’s close.

Eighteen of 20 assets is trading higher.

9am CoinDesk 20 Update for 2026-04-01: vertical

Leaders: AVAX (+4.0%) and HBAR (+3.6%).

Laggards: BCH (-2.1%) and BNB (+0.0%).

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The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.

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Bitcoin Breaks 5-Month Losing Streak With $68K March Close: What’s Next?

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) closed March in green, ending the longest monthly losing streak since 2018. Data suggests that the coming months may prove to be profitable for BTC.

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin ended March 2% higher, marking the first green monthly close in six months.

  • A similar streak in 2018/2019 led to an over 316% BTC price rebound over five months.

  • Bitcoin price faces stiff resistance at $70,000-$72,000, where key trend lines converge.

Past multi-month downtrends were followed by 300% price gains

Historical price data from CoinGlass confirms Bitcoin printed its first green monthly candle in six months, closing March 2% higher after five straight months of losses.

“This is a massive dose of hopium,” analyst Ash Crypto said in an X post on Wednesday.

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The analyst was referring to a possible shift in momentum, which might lead to a sustained recovery, as seen in previous cycles.

Related: Crypto Fear & Greed Index stuck on ‘extreme fear,’ but is there a silver lining?

The last time this happened was in 2018/2019 when BTC closed February 2019 in green, after six consecutive red months, as shown in the figure below.

This led to a reversal with over 300% returns the following five months, as Bitcoin recovered from the 2018 bear market.

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“Last time BTC dumped 6 months in a row, it pumped the following 5 months in a row that came after!” trader Satoshi Flipper said in a Wednesday post on X.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin monthly percentage returns. Source: CoinGlass

If history repeats itself, the reversal may continue in April, suggesting that BTC price may have bottomed at $60,000.

Bitcoin’s bullish monthly close is a ”catalyst for fresh inflows into early April,” Trader Caleb said, adding:

“April starts with momentum.”

Bitcoin has a well-established tendency for significant price swings in April.

Since 2013, April has been a green month for eight of the past 13 years, with average returns of about 12.2%

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However, Bitcoin also tends to move in the opposite direction to March in April, and this is true for nine out of the past 13 years. 

In recent years, Bitcoin dropped in April after closing March in green, three out of four times between 2021 and 2024. 

Therefore, while the end of past multi-month drawdowns suggests a rebound is due, data demonstrates that BTC price could also slide in April.

Watch these Bitcoin price levels next

Data from TradingView shows BTC price up 2.5% on the day to trade at $68,470 as the $69,000-$70,000 resistance remains in place.

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Analysts expect Bitcoin’s range-bound price action to continue for longer, with important price levels to look for in case of a breakout. 

These include the $70,000-$72,000 supply zone, coinciding with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 1w–1m cohort cost basis

This is also where investors acquired approximately 650,000 BTC, marking a potential point of sell pressure, according to the cost-basis distribution data from Glassnode.

Breaking above this level could see BTC/USD revisit the $76,000 range high and eventually the $80,000 psychological level.

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BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Zooming out, trader Sheldon Diedericks said Bitcoin could “push into resistance” at $83,000 on the monthly time frame, a key support level from April 2025. The 200-day EMA is also close to this area.

BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: X/Sheldon Diedericks

On the downside, the 200-week EMA at $68,300 and the 200-week SMA at $59,400 remain key levels to watch. Below that, the next major level is Bitcoin’s realized price around $54,000.

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s bear market bottom could be formed once BTC price drops toward or below its realized price.