The crypto industry’s reaction was that a quantum computing threat was still distant when Google unveiled its Willow quantum chip in December 2024.

Bitcoin uses SHA-256 for mining and ECDSA for signatures, both of which are theoretically vulnerable to quantum decryption, but the consensus was that the threat was decades away. Breaking encryption would require millions of physical qubits (a unit of information in quantum systems). Willow had just 105.

That story has marginally changed sixteen months later, and Google isn’t dismissing anything.

The company announced this week that it is setting a 2029 deadline to migrate its authentication services to post-quantum cryptography, citing progress in quantum hardware, error correction, and factoring resource estimates.

Google’s security engineering team wrote that quantum computers “will pose a significant threat to current cryptographic standards, and specifically to encryption and digital signatures,” and that the threat to digital signatures specifically “requires the transition to PQC prior to a cryptographically relevant quantum computer.”

These risks are not theoretical. The Android 17 mobile operating system is already integrating post-quantum digital signature protection. Chrome already supports post-quantum key exchange. Google Cloud offers post-quantum solutions to enterprise customers.

Here’s why it matters

Classical computers process information as bits, each one either a 0 or a 1, and solve problems by checking possibilities one at a time. Quantum computers use qubits that can exist as both 0 and 1 simultaneously, a property called superposition, which lets them explore vast numbers of possibilities in parallel.

For most everyday tasks, the advantage is negligible. But for specific problems like factoring the large prime numbers that underpin modern encryption, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could solve in minutes what would take a classical machine longer than the age of the universe.

Bitcoin uses ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) to sign transactions, which is exactly the category of cryptography Google flagged as requiring migration before a quantum computer capable of breaking it arrives.

A sufficiently powerful quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could derive private keys from public keys, allowing an attacker to spend any bitcoin whose public key has been exposed on the blockchain.

Shor’s is a quantum computing method that can crack the math protecting passwords and wallets exponentially faster than normal computers.

When CoinDesk wrote about Willow in December 2024, the math was reassuring. Chris Osborn, founder of Solana ecosystem project Dialect, laid it out clearly at the time: roughly 5,000 logical qubits are needed to run Shor’s algorithm against current encryption, and each logical qubit requires thousands of physical qubits for error correction.

That meant millions of physical qubits, against Willow’s 105. The gap seemed enormous.

What’s changed isn’t the qubit count. It’s the error correction trajectory and the institutional response. Google went from demonstrating “below threshold” error correction, meaning they could turn noisy physical qubits into usable logical ones for the first time, to setting a corporate migration deadline in 16 months.

When the company that builds the quantum computers urges developers to migrate by 2029, that’s a signal that the gap is closing faster than the public timeline suggests.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin was already calling for urgency in October 2024, a month before the Willow announcement.

“Quantum computing experts such as Scott Aaronson have also recently started taking the possibility of quantum computers actually working in the medium term much more seriously,” Buterin wrote at the time.

“This has consequences across the entire Ethereum roadmap: it means that each piece of the Ethereum protocol that currently depends on elliptic curves will need to have some hash-based or otherwise quantum-resistant replacement.”

How Ethereum and Bitcoin developers are responding

The contrast with how the two largest blockchain networks are responding could not be sharper.

The Ethereum Foundation treated that as a directive and built accordingly. Eight years of work, now visible in weekly shipping devnets and a public roadmap with fork-level specificity.

Bitcoin’s governance model makes this kind of coordinated response structurally harder. There is no Ethereum Foundation equivalent to fund and direct a multi-year engineering effort.

Protocol changes require broad consensus among a decentralized developer community that has historically moved slowly and deliberately, a feature for stability but a liability when facing a deadline.

The last major cryptographic upgrade to Bitcoin, Taproot, took years of discussion before activation in 2021.

Ethereum launched pq.ethereum.org this week, a dedicated hub for its post-quantum security effort that has been underway since 2018. The Ethereum Foundation’s post-quantum team, cryptography team, protocol architecture team, and protocol coordination team have spent eight years building toward a migration that touches every layer of the protocol.

More than 10 client teams are shipping weekly devnets through what the foundation calls PQ Interop. The roadmap maps specific milestones across four upcoming hard forks, from a post-quantum key registry to full PQ consensus.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, has no equivalent effort. No coordinated roadmap. No multi-team engineering program. No fork milestones.

Nic Carter, one of Bitcoin’s most prominent advocates and co-founder of crypto fund Castle Island Ventures, said the quiet part out loud this week.

“Elliptic curve cryptography is on the brink of obsolescence,” he wrote on X. “Whether it’s 3 or 10 years, it’s over and we need to accept that. The only thing that matters is how quickly blockchain developers recognize that they need to bake in cryptographic mutability into their networks.”

Carter contrasted the two approaches directly. Ethereum’s approach, he said, was “best in class,” describing how the network “gets together and announces a specific, detailed PQ roadmap by 2029, sets it as top strategic priority, folds PQ into ongoing roadmap, detailed FAQ, no fear, just action.”

Bitcoin’s approach, Carter said, was “worst in class.” He noted there is currently one group working on a quantum-related proposal that has “received zero buy-in from top devs,” with developers pointing to isolated pieces of research as evidence of progress while having “no coherent strategy, no roadmap.”

“Everyone knows I’m a bitcoiner and would like bitcoin to win,” Carter added. “Not saying this to hurt feelings. Saying this to spur action.”

The urgency isn’t universally shared, however.

Firms such as CoinShares argue that fears of an imminent quantum threat to bitcoin are overstated, and it estimates that only about 10,200 BTC is concentrated enough in vulnerable legacy address types that its theft could cause “appreciable market disruption.”

The remaining exposed supply, roughly 1.6 million BTC in older Pay-to-Public-Key addresses, is scattered across more than 32,000 separate wallets averaging about 50 BTC each, making them slow and unprofitable to crack individually, as CoinDesk reported at the time.

But the question isn’t whether quantum computing will eventually threaten blockchain cryptography. Google, the Ethereum Foundation, NIST, and now prominent Bitcoin advocates all agree it will.

It is whether three years is enough time to migrate a global, decentralized protocol that has no central authority to set deadlines, no coordinated engineering team to execute them, and a culture that treats urgency with suspicion.

Ethereum’s answer is that eight years of preparation put it in a position to execute the migration across four hard forks. Google’s answer is that 2029 is the deadline, and the migration is already underway in its products.

Bitcoin’s answer, so far, is silence. And as Carter warned, “ETHBTC will start to reflect the divergence in prioritization” if that silence continues.

TLDR:

• Stablecoin transaction volume has surpassed $30 trillion annually, now matching Visa’s total processing scale.
  
• CFOs and corporate boards are actively exploring stablecoin integration for treasury and payment operations.
  
• Stablecoins offer instant settlement, borderless reach, and lower costs that traditional banking cannot match.
  
• The real winners of the stablecoin shift will be builders of payment layers and settlement networks, not token holders.

Stablecoin transaction volume has crossed the $30 trillion mark annually, a figure that now rivals Visa’s total processing volume.

This shift marks a turning point in how global money moves. Businesses, financial officers, and corporate boards are beginning to take notice.

The numbers suggest stablecoins are no longer a niche crypto product. They are becoming core infrastructure for modern financial settlement and cross-border payments.

Stablecoins Step Into the Role of Global Payment Rails

The scale of stablecoin activity has caught the attention of mainstream finance. Crypto analyst Lucky noted that stablecoins are “quietly handling real-world volume — not speculation, actual usage.” That distinction matters greatly to corporate finance teams evaluating payment solutions.

Traditional banking systems operate within fixed hours and geographic limits. Stablecoins, by contrast, offer instant settlement with no banking hours and borderless reach.

For businesses managing international transactions, these features reduce friction and cut costs considerably.

CFOs and treasurers are now asking direct questions about stablecoin integration. The technology solves practical problems that traditional banking has long struggled with. Lower transaction costs and near-instant finality make stablecoins attractive for corporate treasury operations.

As a result, stablecoins are moving from speculative interest to boardroom conversation. Companies across industries are examining how stablecoin rails can fit into existing payment workflows. This transition is happening gradually but with clear momentum.

Crypto Infrastructure Quietly Reshapes the Financial System

Lucky drew a broader pattern connecting major technology shifts to dominant outcomes. The internet moved information, social media moved attention, and crypto introduced digital ownership. Now, stablecoins are positioned to move money at scale globally.

This framing places stablecoins within a longer arc of technological disruption. Rather than replacing banks, crypto is embedding itself into the financial system as a backend layer. Settlement networks and payment layers are where the real structural change is occurring.

The winners in this shift, according to Lucky, will not simply be token holders. They will be the builders of payment infrastructure, settlement networks, and real-world financial integrations. The value is moving toward utility, not speculation.

History shows that infrastructure shifts are often missed until they become unavoidable. Most participants in previous technology cycles recognized the change only after it had already taken hold.

The stablecoin transition appears to be following a similar path, moving steadily beneath the surface of mainstream financial awareness.

TLDR:

• Senator Warren sent a formal letter to Commerce Secretary Lutnick seeking Bitmain-related national security documents.
  
• Federal probe “Operation Red Sunset” examined whether Bitmain rigs could spy on or sabotage the US power grid.
  
• American Bitcoin Corp., backed by Eric and Donald Trump Jr., purchased 16,000 Bitmain rigs for $314 million.
  
• Warren urged Commerce to prevent politically connected crypto firms from influencing national security decisions.

Senator Elizabeth Warren has raised concerns about Bitmain Technologies, a Chinese Bitcoin mining company, amid a federal investigation into potential national security threats.

She sent a formal letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick requesting documents on the matter. Warren also sought clarity on any communications between Bitmain, the Trump family, and the Commerce Department.

Warren Targets Bitmain Over Federal Security Investigation

The Massachusetts senator’s letter came after Bloomberg News reported a federal probe called “Operation Red Sunset.” The investigation started under the Biden administration and focused on Bitmain’s hardware.

Authorities sought to determine whether the machines could be used for spying. There were also concerns about possible sabotage of the American power grid.

The current status of Operation Red Sunset remains unclear to the public. National security investigations can run for years without any public legal proceedings.

The Department of Homeland Security, which led the probe, did not respond to comment requests. Bitmain also declined to respond to the latest inquiries.

Bitmain previously denied the allegations, calling the reports “seriously inconsistent with the facts and constitute false news.”

The company maintained that it “strictly complies with US and applicable laws and regulations and has never engaged in activities that pose risks to US national security.” Those statements were made in response to the Bloomberg News report last year.

A May 2024 federal review had already flagged concerns about a Bitmain-operated site near a US military base, noting “significant national security concerns.”

A Senate Intelligence Committee report from July also named Bitmain’s devices as presenting “several disturbing vulnerabilities” to the US.

The report stated those devices could potentially be manipulated from China. These findings added weight to Warren’s request for answers.

Trump Family Ties to Bitmain Draw Scrutiny

Among Bitmain’s notable clients is American Bitcoin Corp., a firm connected to the Trump family. Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. are both investors in American Bitcoin.

The company signed a contract to acquire 16,000 Bitmain rigs for $314 million last year. That deal drew attention given the ongoing federal interest in Bitmain.

A spokesman for American Bitcoin said the company had conducted extensive security tests on Bitmain’s devices. The tests found no vulnerabilities allowing remote access.

The spokesman stated the company believes that when Bitmain’s devices “are deployed within modern industrial security standards, they do not present a credible risk to the United States power grid or to national security.” American Bitcoin did not respond to the most recent requests for comment.

Warren’s letter asked Commerce to clarify what actions it has taken to prevent conflicts of interest. She specifically asked about steps taken to “insulate the Commerce Department’s national security decisions from the influence of firms that have business ties to the Trump family.”

Commerce holds authority to investigate foreign threats to information and communications technology. However, Democrats remain in the Senate minority and cannot compel a formal response.

Warren made her position clear, writing that “we must ensure that politically connected crypto interests do not receive special treatment and undermine our national security.” The Commerce Department had not responded to comment requests at the time of publication.

TLDR:

• Pakistan delivered Washington’s 15-point peace plan to Iran on the same day Chinese warships docked in Karachi.
  
• Gwadar Port, operated by China under a 40-year lease, sits 400 km from Hormuz and bypasses the blocked strait entirely.
  
• Hormuz traffic has collapsed over 90 percent, with Iran collecting yuan tolls and drafting laws to make them permanent.
  
• Pakistan owes China over $30 billion and sources 81 percent of its arms from Beijing while holding U.S. ally status.

Pakistan finds itself at the center of a growing geopolitical puzzle as the Strait of Hormuz crisis deepens. The country is actively mediating between the United States and Iran while simultaneously hosting China’s most strategic maritime bypass.

Analysts are now watching Islamabad closely. Pakistan holds Major Non-NATO Ally status with Washington, owes Beijing over $30 billion, and operates a port that becomes more valuable the longer Hormuz stays closed.

Pakistan’s Dual Role in the Hormuz Standoff

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed by over 90 percent. Iran is currently collecting yuan-denominated tolls from Chinese-linked vessels passing through the strait. Bloomberg reports that Iran’s parliament is drafting legislation to make these tolls permanent.

On March 25, Pakistan delivered a 15-point American peace plan to Tehran. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed this at a Cabinet meeting, describing the mediation channel as “strong and positive.” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has also offered to host direct face-to-face talks between the parties.

On the very same day, PLA Navy Ship Daqing docked in Karachi. The vessel is participating in Sea Guardian IV, joint naval drills with Pakistan running through April 2. These exercises are taking place in the Arabian Sea, the same waters where Gwadar Port operates.

Analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera noted the timing on social media: “Pakistan is the only country on earth that profits from both outcomes of this war.” This observation has since circulated widely among geopolitical observers.

Pakistan receives 81 percent of its arms from China, according to SIPRI data. That dependency, combined with its American alliance and active mediation role, places Islamabad in a structurally unique position during this crisis.

Gwadar Port and the CPEC Bypass Corridor

Gwadar Port sits approximately 400 kilometers from the Strait of Hormuz on the Balochistan coast. China Overseas Port Holding Company operates it under a 40-year lease. It serves as the southwestern terminal of the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

CPEC connects the Arabian Sea directly to China’s Xinjiang region through 3,000 kilometers of roads, railways, and pipelines.

According to CPEC planning documents, this route cuts China’s Middle Eastern energy import distance from 12,000 kilometers by sea to roughly 2,500 kilometers overland.

Every barrel of oil that cannot pass through Hormuz strengthens the economic argument for routing energy through CPEC instead. A permanent Iranian toll regime at the strait would further accelerate Chinese investment in this overland alternative.

Iran’s fifth ceasefire condition currently demands permanent sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. If any version of that condition is accepted, the yuan toll system could gain international legitimacy. China stands to benefit most from that outcome.

The Sea Guardian drills conclude on April 2. The Trump administration’s diplomatic deadline falls on April 6. That four-day gap separates the end of Chinese military exercises in Pakistan’s waters from a moment when the largest American military buildup since 2003 either acts or withdraws. Pakistan’s position between these two timelines is not coincidental.

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its decline on Friday as traders reacted to the year’s largest options expiry and continued caution in crypto ETF flows. 

Consequently, the drop pushed the asset to its lowest level in more than three weeks, even as some market signals pointed to rising accumulation and possible oversold conditions.

Bitcoin fell to as low as $65,500 on Friday, its weakest level since March 2. At the time of writing, BTC traded near $66,300, down 2% over 24 hours and 6% over the past week (per CoinGecko’s data).

Meanwhile, the move came as roughly $14 billion in Bitcoin options expired, based on open interest. That expiry added pressure to an already cautious market and pushed traders toward a more defensive stance during the session.

ETF activity also remained in focus as investors continued pulling funds from spot Bitcoin products. Data showed that investors withdrew $171 million from spot ETFs on Thursday, adding to short-term pressure on price action.

Still, the broader monthly picture looked more balanced. March recorded about $1.4 billion in net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs after four straight months of net outflows, showing that demand had not fully disappeared despite the latest setback.

While price remained under pressure, on-chain data pointed to continued buying from large holders and smaller wallets. According to Santiment, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC added 61,568 BTC over the past month, a 0.45% increase.

Smaller holders also showed similar behavior. Wallets with less than 0.01 BTC increased their balances by 0.42% over the same period, nearly matching the pace seen among whales and sharks.

Analysts watch for oversold bounce

Market watchers also pointed to oversold signals as Bitcoin traded well below its October 2025 all-time high above $126,000. Current pricing left BTC down 47.42% from that peak, while its market capitalization stood near $1.33 trillion.

Crypto analyst XO said March could mark only the second time Bitcoin posts six straight losing months if the month closes in the red. He wrote, 

“If April sees an early sweep into the $55–60K range, it could create a compelling setup for mean-reversion longs.” 

He also said that the higher timeframe trend would stay in control unless a clear structural shift appears.

Senator Elizabeth Warren has reportedly asked the US Commerce Department to explain how it is handling potential national security risks tied to Chinese crypto mining giant Bitmain, following previous reports that the firm has been under federal scrutiny.

In a letter sent Thursday to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Warren requested documents and communications related to Bitmain, which manufactures a large share of the world’s Bitcoin mining equipment, Bloomberg reported on Friday.

In November last year, it was reported that US authorities had launched an investigation into Bitmain over potential national security risks. The probe, known as “Operation Red Sunset” and led by the US Department of Homeland Security, aimed to examine whether Bitmain’s ASIC machines could be remotely accessed for espionage or used to disrupt the US power grid.

According to Bloomberg, the probe remains unresolved, and its current status is unclear. National security investigations of this type can run for years without public disclosure or legal action.

Related: MARA sells $1.1B in Bitcoin to buy back debt at 9% discount

US scrutiny of Bitmain deepens

The scrutiny follows earlier actions, including halted shipments of Bitmain devices and a separate investigation into a related Chinese chip firm over alleged links to sanctioned Huawei.

In 2024, a federal review also flagged the use of its machines near a US military base as raising “significant national security concerns.”

In July last year, Bloomberg also reported that Bitmain is preparing to open its first US-based ASIC manufacturing facility, with chip production expected to begin in early 2026 and scale by year-end.

Cointelegraph reached out to Warren and Bitmain for comment, but had not received a response by publication.

Related: Bitcoin mining difficulty falls 7.7% as miner pressure persists

Trump-backed American Bitcoin buys Bitmain mining rigs

Bitmain’s machines are widely used in Bitcoin mining operations, including by American Bitcoin Corp., which counts Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. among its investors. The firm agreed last year to acquire 16,000 Bitmain rigs in a $314 million deal.

Warren’s letter also seeks details on any communications between Bitmain, the Trump family and Commerce officials, and asks what steps the department has taken to shield national security decisions from political influence.

Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author