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Crypto World

Ethereum Price Prediction: Lubin, Bitmine, and Sharplink Launch Independent Non-Profit Institution to Bring Institutional Wealth Onchain

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Ethereum price is trading near $1,650, remaining below its major moving averages and preserving a bearish prediction. However, the biggest story this week is not the chart. Instead, Bitmine and SharpLink are betting that institutional Ethereum adoption could accelerate well before the price reflects it.

Ethereum Institutional has launched as an independent non-profit focused on institutional engagement. Backed by Bitmine, SharpLink, and Ethereum co-founder Joe Lubin, it formalizes outreach previously handled within the Ethereum Foundation. The organization will focus on institutional education, market intelligence, ETH marketing, standards, and global events.

Its leadership includes Thomas Lee as chairman, Joseph Chalom, and Executive Director David Walsh, and the operations have already spanned to New York, London, Hong Kong, Singapore, Zurich, Frankfurt, Tokyo, and Abu Dhabi, giving the organization an international presence from launch.

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The timing reflects Ethereum’s growing role in institutional finance. The network secures roughly 60% of the stablecoin supply and about two-thirds of tokenized real-world assets. Ethereum Institutional aims to strengthen relationships with financial firms before competing blockchain networks gain market share.

Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio

Ethereum Price Prediction: $1,750 or $2,000

ETH is recovering at $1,650, trading below its 20-, 50-, and 100-day EMAs. That setup keeps the near-term trend bearish. Meanwhile, the RSI sits around 43, while the Stochastic oscillator remains neutral, suggesting selling pressure has eased without confirming a reversal.

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At the same time, spot Ether ETFs have recorded persistent outflows since mid-June, limiting buying momentum. As a result, recent rallies have faded near resistance. Institutional interest remains intact, but it has yet to translate into sustained price strength.

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The first resistance sits near the 20-day EMA around $1,670, followed by the $1,750 level that traders continue to monitor. Above that, the 50-day EMA near $1,870 becomes the next key hurdle. On the downside, support rests around $1,520, followed by $1,400 and $1,150 if selling pressure intensifies.

A bullish scenario requires ETH to reclaim the 20-day EMA and break above $1,750 with strong volume. Otherwise, the base case remains range-bound trading between $1,520 and $1,670. If support near $1,500 fails, ETH could revisit lower levels before establishing a stronger recovery.

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LiquidChain Targets Early-Mover Upside as Ethereum Tests Key Levels

ETH at $1,650 with stacked resistance overhead and ETF outflows still unresolved means the upside for spot holders is capped in the near term, even with the institutional narrative firmly in place. Traders looking for asymmetric exposure to the same Ethereum-adjacent infrastructure thesis are eyeing early-stage infrastructure plays where the entry math still works.

LiquidChain ($LIQUID) is a Layer 3 infrastructure project positioning itself as the cross-chain liquidity layer, fusing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana liquidity into a single execution environment.

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The architecture centers on a Unified Liquidity Layer, Single-Step Execution, Verifiable Settlement, and a Deploy-Once structure that lets developers build once and access all three ecosystems simultaneously. The project has already drawn attention as a direct infrastructure beneficiary of the multi-chain institutional expansion that entities like Ethereum Institutional are accelerating.

As of now, its presale is currently priced at $0.01475, with $880K raised to date.

Research LiquidChain here.

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Aave Expands to Monad With V3 Lending and GHO Stablecoin

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Crypto Breaking News

DeFi lending protocol Aave has expanded its multi-chain footprint by deploying its V3 lending markets on Monad, a layer-1 network designed to run Ethereum-compatible applications. The rollout introduces Aave on Monad with 12 supported assets at launch, aiming to give Monad users an established borrowing venue and to accelerate liquidity formation via incentives.

In its announcement on Thursday, Aave said the initial markets include USDT, USDC, Aave’s GHO stablecoin, USDe, mUSD, AUSD, WETH, cbBTC, wstETH, weETH, syrupUSDC, and sUSDe. It also highlighted that this is Aave’s first deployment with Chainlink Smart Value Recapture enabled from day one, a mechanism that redirects part of the value generated from liquidations back to the protocol.

Key takeaways

  • Aave V3 is live on Monad with markets for 12 assets, including GHO and multiple stablecoin and wrapped-asset pairs.
  • Chainlink Smart Value Recapture is enabled from launch, redirecting a portion of liquidation-generated value back to Aave.
  • Governance materials show Monad’s ecosystem support includes $15 million in incentives over the first 12 months and additional GHO commitments.
  • A risk assessment cited concerns about early activity on Monad compressing after an initial strong start, with liquidity remaining concentrated in established protocols.

What Aave V3 brings to Monad

The deployment matters for Monad because it moves beyond isolated DeFi activity and adds a battle-tested lending framework with liquidity incentives and a mature stablecoin ecosystem. Aave’s governance proposal notes that Monad is compatible with Ethereum’s application environment, meaning developers can reuse existing Solidity contracts and Ethereum tooling with minimal changes.

Aave also positioned the launch as more than a deployment checklist: it is meant to connect Monad’s users to GHO and to borrowing/lending liquidity designed for sustained market use. In addition to the asset list, Aave underscored the strategic role of Chainlink Smart Value Recapture in its liquidation flows, which can affect how value accrues on the protocol side and how incentives are structured during early adoption.

Incentives to jump-start liquidity—plus a reality check

Aave’s governance documentation indicates that the Monad Foundation committed $15 million in incentives during the first 12 months following activation. The foundation also agreed to acquire and retain 10 million GHO for more than six months, while the Aave DAO committed an additional 500,000 GHO in incentives to support onboarding on Monad.

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That funding structure is designed to reduce early friction for borrowers and suppliers, but it does not automatically guarantee long-term utilization. A risk assessment by LlamaRisk pointed to a key uncertainty: while Monad’s mainnet launched on Nov. 24, 2025, network usage reportedly softened after a strong start. As of June 8, LlamaRisk estimated Monad’s total value locked at about $359.5 million, while noting that liquidity remained concentrated in already established protocols.

LlamaRisk backed the Aave deployment with conservative initial parameters, explicitly citing Monad’s short operating history at the time of evaluation. The practical takeaway for investors and traders is that incentive-backed liquidity often looks strong early, but the sustainability of borrow/supply activity will be tested as rewards decline and market participants decide whether to stay without continued subsidization.

Why tokenized assets could make lending more important

The Aave-on-Monad rollout lands as tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) increasingly intersect with DeFi lending strategies. Earlier coverage noted that institutions are looking at ways to bring tokenized assets into DeFi lending markets, and Standard Chartered previously said that tokenized assets entering DeFi could drive deposits into Aave. According to that same earlier reporting, Aave’s deposit base reached roughly $75 billion at its October 2025 peak.

Meanwhile, Centrifuge has discussed bringing tokenized Treasurys, private credit, and AAA-rated collateralized loan obligations to Monad for use across lending, collateral, and secondary-market activity. While the input does not indicate that Centrifuge assets have been integrated into Aave yet, the logic for Monad users is straightforward: if tokenized asset issuers expand into Monad, having an established lending venue such as Aave V3 can lower the barrier for turning those assets into productive borrowing and collateral workflows.

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What to watch after the launch

Aave’s deployment gives Monad an immediate, Ethereum-compatible lending destination with a defined set of markets and liquidation value-sharing mechanics. The next signal that will matter most is whether borrowing demand and supply growth persist after early incentives—particularly given LlamaRisk’s observation that activity compressed after Monad’s initial strong start and that liquidity was concentrated in established venues. Readers should watch for changes in utilization across the new Aave markets and for any confirmed integration of tokenized asset products into Aave on Monad as the ecosystem develops.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Pi Network (PI) News Today: July 2

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Pi Network rarely stays out of the spotlight, as the Core Team consistently rolls out ecosystem upgrades and major announcements.

Yet despite the steady stream of updates, the project’s native token has continued to slide, recently tumbling to a fresh all-time low.

The Latest Developments

Pi Network’s community has been desperately waiting for a potential catalyst that could finally trigger a price rebound for PI, with numerous members pinning their hopes on Pi2Day.

The date is symbolic, as it represents the mathematical constant 2π, and it is celebrated annually on June 28. There was widespread speculation that the team would unveil groundbreaking announcements that day, as some even anticipated a listing on Binance.

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Instead, Pi Network introduced SoloHost, Pi Sign-in, and PiVerify – tools designed to expand the ecosystem beyond native apps and into AI, digital identity, and third-party services. Several hours ago, the Core Team offered additional clarification on these features, saying:

“Together, these releases point to a broader direction for the ecosystem: Pi products are built both for the Pi ecosystem and to extend Pi services and resources to the external world. This, in turn, enriches and strengthens the Pi ecosystem.”

The Reaction

Some industry participants and entities praised Pi Network for releasing the aforementioned tools. X user Onur described these as “banger updates,” while CiDi Games argued that everything the team shipped on Pi2Day “points in the same direction: real utility, built by the people who use it.”

The community, though, wasn’t unanimously impressed. Many urged the team to fix the ongoing KYC and migration issues first, claiming that these problems are more urgent than new feature releases.

PI Price Outlook

The overall market weakness, and perhaps the emergence of a classic “sell the news” scenario after Pi2Day, has resulted in a further price decline for PI, which fell to a new ATL of just over $0.11 towards the end of June.

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As of press time, the token trades at roughly $0.115, representing a minor 0.8% increase on a daily scale and a whopping 96% crash since the historic peak of $3 witnessed at the start of 2025.

Still, some factors suggest that bears may loosen their grip in the short term. The number of PI coins stored on crypto exchanges has decreased by about 260,000 over the past day, bringing the total to 553.3 million. Such a trend usually leads to reduced selling pressure.

PI Exchange Balance
PI Exchange Balance, Source: piscan.io

The upcoming token unlocks are also worth monitoring. Roughly 127.5 million PI are scheduled for release over the next 30 days, with an average daily unlock of 4.25 million. This is far less aggressive than in previous months and may help set the stage for a period of price stabilization.

PI Token Unlocks
PI Token Unlocks, Source: piscan.io

The post Pi Network (PI) News Today: July 2 appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Aave V3 Goes Live on Monad With $15M Incentive Plan

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Aave V3 Goes Live on Monad With $15M Incentive Plan

Decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Aave has deployed its V3 lending protocol on Monad, expanding the layer-1 blockchain’s lending ecosystem with support for 12 assets at launch. 

On Thursday, Aave announced that the initial market supports USDT0, USDC, Aave’s GHO stablecoin, USDe, mUSD, AUSD, WETH, cbBTC, wstETH, weETH, syrupUSDC and sUSDe. It is also Aave’s first deployment with Chainlink Smart Value Recapture enabled from day one, allowing part of the value generated from liquidations to be redirected back to the protocol.

The deployment expands Aave’s multichain lending network while giving Monad users and developers access to an established borrowing market, Aave’s GHO stablecoin and liquidity incentives intended to support early adoption. 

Monad is compatible with Ethereum’s application environment, allowing existing Solidity contracts and Ethereum tooling to be used with minimal changes, according to Aave’s governance proposal.

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Monad’s total value locked as of Thursday. Source: DefiLlama

Aave deployment tests Monad’s liquidity ambitions 

Aave’s governance documents show that the Monad Foundation committed $15 million in incentives during the first 12 months after activation. The foundation also agreed to acquire and retain 10 million GHO for over six months, while Aave DAO committed another 500,000 GHO in incentives to support adoption on Monad.

These incentives could help establish initial liquidity. However, user activity will need to persist after incentives decline. According to a risk assessment by LlamaRisk, Monad’s mainnet launched on Nov. 24, 2025, and had about $359.5 million in total value locked as of June 8. It said early network usage had compressed after a strong start and that liquidity remained concentrated in established protocols.

LlamaRisk supported the deployment with conservative initial parameters, citing Monad’s short operating history.

Related: DeFi TVL drops 39% in 2026 amid market downturn and record hack activity

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The launch also comes as institutions increasingly explore bringing tokenized assets into DeFi lending markets. In June, Standard Chartered said that tokenized assets entering DeFi could drive deposits into Aave, whose deposit base reached about $75 billion at its October 2025 peak. 

In April, Centrifuge revealed plans to bring tokenized Treasurys, private credit and AAA-rated collateralized loan obligations to Monad for use in lending, collateral and secondary-market activity. 

Although Centrifuge has not announced that its assets will be integrated into Aave, the deployment gives Monad an established lending venue that could support tokenized assets as its ecosystem develops.

Magazine: China’s 107 Bitcoin memory thief, Bithumb CEO booked: Asia Express

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Every Setup Says Dogecoin Is Due a Big Rally: One Barrier Could Trigger the Next Leg Higher

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Dogecoin is trading around $0.074 after recovering from recent lows, yet it remains below a key resistance area. That ceiling has become the market’s main focus. Crack it, and sentiment could shift quickly; miss it, and we may face another round of sideways action.

DOGE is tightening beneath resistance, a pattern that often comes before a stronger move. If buyers push through and hold the breakout, the next technical target sits near $0.1172.

Meanwhile, Javon Marks sees a much bigger picture. His cycle analysis points to a potential target at $1.25, and even above $1.80 if past market patterns repeat. That’s an ambitious roadmap, but it starts with clearing the same resistance first.

Still, charts cannot do all the heavy lifting. Stronger market liquidity and steady buying demand must back any breakout. Until then, the bullish case remains promising, though it is still waiting for its starting gun.

Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio

Can Dogecoin Price Reclaim $0.11 and Set Up a Run Toward $0.12?

Dogecoin has dropped from about $0.117 in January to $0.074 today, after sliding below $0.07 late in June. Since then, buyers have stepped in, although the price remains stuck in a narrow range as the chart suggests consolidation rather than a decisive trend change.

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Attention now shifts to the $0.09-$0.11 zone, where DOGE previously found strong demand. A move above $0.11 could open the door to a retest of $0.117. Even so, that breakout still needs convincing trading volume to avoid turning into another false start.

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The most likely outcome is continued sideways trading between $0.07 and $0.10 while the market searches for direction. If buyers regain control above $0.11, momentum could improve quickly. On the other hand, a drop below the late-June low near $0.069 would weaken the recovery setup.

Dogecoin still adds about five billion new tokens each year, although the inflation rate gradually declines as supply grows. Merchant adoption has improved over time, but that alone has not been enough to offset weak demand during cautious market conditions. In short, the chart can open the door, but the market still has to walk through it.

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Maxi Doge Targets Early-Mover Upside as DOGE Tests Key Levels

Dogecoin’s breakout potential is compelling, but at its current market cap, the math on a 10x return is a different conversation than it was in 2021. Traders who want asymmetric exposure to meme coin momentum, without waiting on a $0.11 reclaim that may or may not materialize, are rotating into earlier-stage plays where the entry price still reflects genuine speculation rather than priced-in hope.

Maxi Doge ($MAXI) is one such play. Built on Ethereum as a meme token engineered around a 1000x leverage trading mentality, it has raised $4.8 million in presale at a current price of $0.0002827, and dynamic staking APY is live for presale participants.

The project runs holder-only trading competitions with leaderboard rewards, a Maxi Fund treasury allocated to liquidity and partnerships, and a community culture built around what it calls “gym-bro” viral marketing. It’s a loud, repeatable, and sticky in the same way early DOGE humor was.

Research Maxi Doge here.

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Half of the $60 Billion Tokenization Market Has No Real Activity

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Half of the $60 Billion Tokenization Market Has No Real Activity

More than half of the tokenized real-world asset market showed no weekly transfer activity, according to new research from BeInCrypto.

The report, Real State of Tokenization in 2026, tracked roughly $60 billion in tokenized real-world assets across more than 7,000 products and 12 asset classes. It found that the market is growing fast, but actual on-chain activity remains far thinner than the headline numbers suggest.

Across 1,289 tokenized assets worth more than $100,000, 910 showed zero weekly transfers. Those dormant assets represented $32.9 billion in value, or 56% of the market measured for transfer activity.

Only 379 assets showed weekly movement. Together, they represented $26.2 billion in active value.

Tokenization Has Value, But Not Always Movement

The finding points to one of the biggest gaps in tokenized finance. Assets may be brought on-chain, but that does not mean they are actively traded, transferred, or used across financial infrastructure.

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The report draws a distinction between “Distributed” assets and “Represented” assets. 

Distributed assets can move on public blockchain rails and may be used across wallets, platforms, or DeFi protocols. 

Represented assets use blockchain more like an internal ledger or digital record of an off-chain position.

But why does this distinction matter? Because about $27 billion of dormant value came from Represented assets. 

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In these cases, low transfer activity does not necessarily mean failure. Some products were not designed for public secondary-market movement in the first place.

However, the data still shows that tokenized finance has not yet become a broad, liquid market. Even among active assets, activity is concentrated in a much smaller group than the total product count suggests.

The Next Problem Is Infrastructure

The research concludes that tokenization’s next phase depends less on launching more assets and more on building the systems that allow those assets to move, settle, comply with regulation, and reach investors.

Without stronger infrastructure around access, transfer controls, compliance, collateral use, and market depth, many tokenized assets may remain digital records rather than usable financial instruments.

The full BeInCrypto Research report is available here

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SEC’s Peirce Expects CLARITY Act Senate Vote Before August Recess

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🇺🇸

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce said on the Searching for Mana podcast that she expects the CLARITY Act to pass the full Senate this summer, adding an authoritative internal voice to a timeline the market has treated as optimistic but far from guaranteed.

The bill cleared the House on a 294–134 bipartisan vote in July 2025 and advanced out of the Senate Banking Committee on a 15–9 vote in May 2026, meaningful procedural progress, but still short of a floor vote, a merged text, and a presidential signature.

That distinction matters. Peirce is not a neutral observer offering a general forecast, she is a sitting SEC commissioner and former Senate Banking Committee staffer who knows exactly how many gates remain.

Her saying this publicly signals that the agency’s leadership does not regard the summer timeline as aspirational cover, but as a live expectation.

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The procedural math is tighter than the headline optimism suggests. The Senate Banking Committee text and a parallel Agriculture Committee bill, the latter focused on commodities and derivatives, must be merged before a floor vote. That merged text then needs 60 votes to clear cloture, a threshold that requires sustained bipartisan cooperation.

Democrats Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland joined all 13 Republicans in committee, which is an encouraging signal, but committee votes and floor votes are different arithmetic problems.

The urgency is not theoretical. More than 100 crypto firms and trade associations have signed a public letter pressing Senate leadership to move the bill forward, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has framed passage as critical to maintaining U.S. financial leadership and the dollar’s reserve status.

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Agency guidance is reversible, a future administration can undo every no-action letter and staff bulletin without legislation. Statutory clarity from this bill is not. That asymmetry is what makes the summer window consequential beyond a single news cycle for digital assets markets.

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CLARITY Act: How Crypto Oversight Gets Split Between SEC, CFTC, and the Howey Test

Peirce outlined the bill’s core mechanics plainly. The CLARITY Act would divide jurisdiction over crypto between the SEC and the CFTC based on a three-bucket classification framework.

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Digital commodities, Bitcoin and Ethereum are the clearest cases, with Solana likely included, would fall under CFTC jurisdiction for spot market oversight, a structure that does not currently exist in statute. Assets that qualify as investment contracts would remain under SEC oversight. Permitted payment stablecoins would sit under joint supervision.

The Howey Test clarification is the piece with the most direct market-structure implication. Under current law, whether a token constitutes part of an investment contract depends on a fact-intensive analysis that the SEC has applied inconsistently, leaving issuers and secondary market participants exposed to retroactive enforcement.

The CLARITY Act would codify a clearer standard for when that test applies to a given token, resolving the ambiguity that has kept major Layer 1 tokens in a classification gray zone and suppressed U.S. exchange listings.

Peirce has long argued the prior enforcement-first approach made honest builders indistinguishable from fraudsters; this provision would give developers a statutory framework to build against rather than a body of contradictory staff positions.

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The developer liability protection in the bill addresses a separate but related risk. Under the prior SEC regime, software developers faced exposure when third parties used their protocols in ways regulators later deemed unlawful.

The CLARITY Act would shield developers from that liability in cases where a decentralized network lacks a centralized intermediary exercising control, a protection that directly affects DeFi protocol builders and open-source contributors who currently operate under meaningful legal uncertainty.

Peirce framed the window directly: “This is a rare window where you have a lot of regulatory goodwill.

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Use that to build things that last, things that matter,” she said.

Photo: Hestor Pierce

SEC Chair Paul Atkins reinforced the same directional signal in separate remarks to the Economic Club of New York and in a Fox News interview, saying President Trump had challenged the agency to make the U.S. the crypto capital of the world and faulting the prior administration for treating digital assets as suspect by nature.

Atkins pledged to bring innovators who had left the country back to build under American law, framing consistent with Peirce’s comments and indicative of aligned SEC leadership on the bill’s importance. The Trump administration’s deep financial exposure to the crypto sector adds political weight to that commitment beyond rhetoric.

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Oil Prices Are Back at Pre-Conflict Levels. Analysts Are Divided

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Oil Prices Are Back at Pre-Conflict Levels. Analysts Are Divided

At the start of May, oil markets were still pricing in elevated geopolitical risk and expectations of sustained supply disruption.

But easing tensions between Washington and Tehran, along with improving supply expectations, have rapidly shifted sentiment back toward fundamentals.

📉 Brent crude has fallen back to around $71–74 per barrel
📊 Prices are now close to pre-conflict levels after a drop of more than 35% since early May
⚖️ The market is reassessing whether the geopolitical risk premium has been fully removed

The debate is now split between two clear narratives.

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📉 Bearish case: supply is recovering and demand remains uneven
📈 Bullish case: geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz are still not fully priced in

The key question for markets is whether oil has already priced in good news — or whether volatility is simply paused, not gone.

Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Ondo debuts SEC-aligned tokenized stock model with BlackRock ETF, Micron shares

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Ondo debuts SEC-aligned tokenized stock model with BlackRock ETF, Micron shares

“Today’s milestone shows we can tokenize securities in ways that meet both market and regulatory requirements, for U.S. and global investors and provides a strong foundation for our expanding access to onchain investments for more U.S. investors,” he added.

Tokenization, or the process of representing traditional assets as blockchain-based tokens, has emerged as one of the fastest-growing areas blurring digital assets and traditional finance. Supporters say it can modernize capital markets through faster settlement, around-the-clock trading and easier movement of assets across financial platforms. A report by Citi projected that tokenized securities could reach $5.5 trillion market size by 2030.

Debate around tokenization models

The launch follows the SEC’s January staff statement on tokenized securities, which outlined how a third-party custodial model could comply with existing securities laws. SEC staff statements don’t have the full weight of formal guidance approved by the agency’s commissioners, but do indicate how the regulator is thinking about issues like tokenization.

Under that approach, a regulated intermediary holds conventional shares in custody and issues blockchain-based tokens representing a holder’s entitlement to those assets. That’s an alternative approach to the issuer-sponsored tokenization, where the issuer of the underlying security is involved in the process.

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The agency’s guidance coincided with a growing debate over whether tokenized stocks issued without issuer involvement confer the same rights as traditional shares. The topic drew broader attention when OpenAI said last year it did not authorize Robinhood’s tokenized offering tied to its shares and warned the tokens did not represent equity in the company.

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Wall Street Rallies as Disappointing Jobs Data Reduces Fed Rate Hike Pressure

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E-Mini S&P 500 Sep 26 (ES=F)

TLDR

  • June employment figures showed only 57,000 new positions created, significantly below the anticipated 113,000.
  • Major equity indexes rallied following the release, with the Dow climbing approximately 0.7%.
  • Jobless figures declined modestly to 4.2%, compared to predictions of 4.3%.
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that markets should analyze economic indicators rather than central bank signals for rate direction.
  • Probability of unchanged rates through December increased to 21.7% based on CME FedWatch Tool data.

Equity markets across the United States posted gains on Thursday following a disappointing June employment report that suggested the Federal Reserve might pause its interest rate tightening campaign.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced approximately 370 points, representing a 0.7% increase. The S&P 500 climbed 0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite registered a 0.5% gain during morning trading sessions.

E-Mini S&P 500 Sep 26 (ES=F)
E-Mini S&P 500 Sep 26 (ES=F)

Employment Data Falls Short of Projections

According to the Labor Department’s latest release, the American economy generated 57,000 new positions during June. This figure represented a substantial miss compared to economist consensus estimates of 113,000. The data marked a notable deceleration from hiring patterns observed over the preceding three-month period.

The unemployment metric registered at 4.2%. Analysts had projected the rate would remain unchanged at 4.3%, making the slight decline an unexpected development.

The subdued hiring figures interrupted what had been a consecutive three-month stretch of robust employment growth. It simultaneously altered market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions.

Chairman of the Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh recently advised Wall Street participants to concentrate on fundamental economic metrics instead of anticipating explicit central bank communication. Thursday’s employment data provided market participants with tangible information to digest.

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Chris Zaccarelli, serving as chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, suggested the deceleration in job creation might encourage more aggressive Federal Reserve policymakers to reconsider the pace of monetary tightening.

The likelihood of interest rates remaining unchanged through year-end climbed to 21.7%, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool. Market participants continue to factor in the possibility of at least one rate increase during 2025.

Government bond yields adjusted following the data release. The 2-year yield declined to 4.15%, whereas the 10-year yield ticked upward to 4.49%. The U.S. dollar simultaneously weakened against major currencies.

Technology Sector Experiences Headwinds From Semiconductor Decline

Despite broader market strength, technology equities encountered resistance. The Nasdaq underperformed relative to both the Dow and S&P 500 during the trading session.

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A significant decline among South Korean semiconductor manufacturers dampened investor sentiment. The Kospi index plummeted 7.9%. SK Hynix tumbled more than 14%, while Samsung Electronics experienced a decline exceeding 9%. Both corporations had recently unveiled substantial artificial intelligence infrastructure investment initiatives.

Microsoft shares defied the broader technology sector weakness, posting gains despite surrounding headwinds.

Oil prices retreated after Qatar, serving as intermediary in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, characterized this week’s diplomatic exchanges as productive. While no agreement materialized, the diplomatic atmosphere was interpreted favorably.

With American financial markets scheduled to close Friday in observance of Independence Day, certain traders appeared to be adjusting positions ahead of the extended holiday weekend.

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The S&P 500 was trading at 7,501 during midday activity. The Dow reached 52,757. The Nasdaq positioned at 25,992.

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Oil Extends Fall After Saudi Exports Surge: Why Are Bitcoin and Gold Rallying?

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Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin Price Performances. Source: TradingView

The oil price fall deepened on Thursday as WTI crude slipped below $68 for the first time in 125 days. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) climbed more than 5% to levels above $61,500, and gold extended gains beyond $4,000.

Recovering Saudi shipments through the reopened Strait of Hormuz have erased much of crude’s war premium. Prices had climbed above $110 at the height of the conflict.

Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin Price Performances. Source: TradingView
Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin Price Performances. Source: TradingView

Why the Oil Price Fall Deepened

Saudi Arabia is shipping its most crude through the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Iran truce reopened the waterway. Four supertankers operated by national carrier Bahri reportedly exited the Gulf with roughly 8 million barrels.

The recovery is steep. Exports had slumped to about 4 million barrels per day during the fighting, down from more than 7 million in February. They are again approaching the pre-war pace of 6.3 million barrels per day recorded in Argus data.

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During the closure, Riyadh kept roughly half its exports flowing by diverting cargoes to Red Sea ports. Saudi Aramco has since resumed loadings at Ras Tanura, the world’s largest oil terminal, after a near four-month halt.

Shipping analytics firm Kpler estimates strait traffic has recovered to about 40 vessel crossings per day. Neighboring UAE flows have already returned to pre-war levels.

The stakes are global. The waterway handles roughly 20% of seaborne oil trade, according to the EIA. Consequently, WTI now trades below its level when US strikes on Iran began in late February.

However, the 60-day truce roadmap remains interim, and insurers stay cautious on Gulf shipping.

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Bitcoin and Gold Move the Other Way

Bitcoin gained over 5% over the past 24 hours to trade near $61,649 as of this writing. Cheaper energy and fading geopolitical fear are reviving appetite for risk assets. Falling crude also cools inflation expectations, an added support for risk-taking.

Bitcoin Price Performance
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

The bounce extends signs that Bitcoin selling pressure was already easing before the truce. Equities tell a similar story, with nearly 60% of S&P 500 stocks carrying record Buy ratings as tensions cool.

Inflation worries have not vanished, though. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted the AI investment shock has markets asking if it will fuel inflation.

That helps explain gold’s resilience. The metal traded near $4,119, with an intraday push toward $4,140, and remains well below January’s record above $5,500.

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Gold (XAU) Price Performance
Gold (XAU) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

However, bullion is still up more than 22% over the past year. Investors continue to hold it as an inflation and geopolitical hedge.

The divergence suggests markets are pricing a durable supply recovery while still hedging the truce’s fragility.

The post Oil Extends Fall After Saudi Exports Surge: Why Are Bitcoin and Gold Rallying? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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