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Ethereum price slowly forms a risky pattern as BlackRock launches ETH staking ETF

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ethereum price

Ethereum’s price has risen for four consecutive days and is now hovering around the crucial support level of $2,000, as BlackRock launches its first staking ETF today, March 12.

Summary

  • BlackRock will launch ETHB today, its first staking Ethereum ETF.
  • ETHB will have an expense ratio of 0.25%, making it a better option than ETHA.
  • Ethereum has formed a bearish flag pattern, pointing to a retreat.

Ethereum (ETH), the second-biggest cryptocurrency, trades at $2,056, inside a range it has remained in in the past 30 days. This price is nearly 60% below its all-time high.

A major catalyst for ETH price is that BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, will launch its staking ETF today. This is a big milestone that will address a key challenge that has existed in the existing funds.

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Existing Ethereum ETFs, which have over $11.85 billion in assets, don’t offer staking rewards, making them less ideal to most investors. In BlackRock’s case, holders of the ETHA ETF pay an annual fee of 0.25% and forego a monthly return. Data shows that Ethereum has a staking return of about 3%.

The new ETF will have a ticker of ETHB and an annual fee of 0.25%. It will initially have a fee waiver of 0.12% for the first year or when it hits $2.5 billion in assets.

Therefore, a likely scenario is where there is a rotation from ETHA and other Ethereum ETFs to ETHB. It may also lead to more inflows from investors who have not invested in these funds yet. 

Ethereum price prediction

ethereum price
ETH price chart | Source: crypto.news

The daily timeframe chart shows that the ETH price crashed from the all-time high of $4,950 to the current $2,065. It has constantly remained below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages since November last year when it formed a death cross pattern. 

Ethereum price has formed a horizontal channel whose support and resistance levels are at $1,843 and $2,193. It has remained inside this channel since February 6 this year. 

This channel formed after the coin declined sharply, meaning that this is part of a bearish flag pattern. In most cases, this pattern often leads to a strong bearish breakout. 

Therefore, the coin will likely have a strong bearish breakout in the near term. If this happens, the initial target will be the lower side of the channel at $1,843. A drop below that price will lead to further downside, potentially to $1,500.

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Crypto World

Will private credit break the Bitcoin price?

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Will private credit break the Bitcoin price?

There is a growing risk that a looming crisis in the private credit market, fueled by rising redemptions and defaults, could spill over into Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto markets, according to analysts.

Key takeaways:

  • The $2 trillion private credit sector faces a crisis from defaults, redemptions, and limited oversight.

  • A liquidity crunch may force investors to sell readily accessible assets, like Bitcoin, first.

  • Historical crises show Fed interventions often lead to strong Bitcoin price rallies as a hedge against money supply expansion.

The private credit ticking time bomb?

The private credit sector, the non-bank lending sector that has grown to over $2 trillion from $500 billion in the past five years, is flashing warning signs of an impending crisis

Fueled by low rates and investor hunger for high yields, it now rivals traditional banks but lacks the same oversight.

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Related: Will Bitcoin crash if oil prices hit $100 per barrel?

In 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the private credit sector “warranted closer watch,” adding:

“Rapid growth of this opaque and highly interconnected segment of the financial system could heighten financial vulnerabilities given its limited oversight.”

Private credit assets under management to double by 2030. Source: Preqin

Now, the private credit market shows cracks that threaten triggering a financial crisis.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, with over $10 trillion under management, limited withdrawals from its $26 billion flagship credit funds, reported Bloomberg.

Blue Owl Capital halted redemptions amid software sector woes from AI disruptions, while UBS warns of default rates hitting 15% in worst-case scenarios. 

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On Wednesday, Reuters reported that JPMorgan restricted lending to its private credit funds while Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater Private Credit Fund joined the growing list of asset managers under distress.

Source: X/Max Crypto

”Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach, founder at Double Line said that the private credit fund of funds in 2026 closely mirrors CDO-squared in early 2007, before the 2008 global financial crisis.

“Financial repression is incoming,” market analyst MartyParty said in an X post on Thursday, attributing the problems to the sector’s rapid growth in the face of ‘increasing scrutiny’ over liquidity during periods of investor outflows.

“Either the Fed injects liquidity, or we go into crisis.”

Global conflict and macroeconomic uncertainties exacerbate this, potentially delaying Fed easing while putting pressure on equities and the Bitcoin price.

As Cointelegraph reported, futures markets are pricing less than a 1% chance of Fed rate cuts at the March 18 FOMC meeting.

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Liquidity crunch could crash Bitcoin price, at first

While the withdrawal limitations directly affect the private credit market, the implications extend far beyond traditional finance.

Withdrawal limits are a “big deal for crypto,” crypto investor Paul Barron said in a recent post on X, adding:

“When giants like Blackrock lock the gates on private funds, it signals a ‘liquidity crunch.’ Investors stuck in private credit might sell their ‘liquid’ assets (Bitcoin/ETH) to raise cash elsewhere.”

This means that if investors cannot access funds from illiquid private credit portfolios, they may turn to assets that can be sold instantly in public markets.

Bitcoin, which trades 24/7, often serves as the first pressure valve. Its price dropped sharply by 50% in March 2020 as the market priced in the COVID-19 crisis.

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But this usually forces government interventions: emergency liquidity injections and rate cuts, aimed at averting systemic collapse.

In 2020, Fed actions post-crash fueled Bitcoin’s surge to its previous all-time high of $69,000 by year-end from $4,400, a 1,400% rally.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Liquidity
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Similarly, during the March 2023 banking turmoil, Bitcoin initially sold off on contagion fears, then rallied more than 200% as markets priced in a Fed pause on rate hikes.

This suggests that a private credit breakdown might ultimately result in the further expansion of the money supply, sending BTC price to new highs.

As Cointelegraph reported, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes will wait untill until the Fed loosens its monetary policy before buying any more Bitcoin. BTC price will then rise to $250,000, he predicted.

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