TLDR:

• Silver fell 43% from its $121.67 all-time high to $69.50 in under eight weeks after Gulf war shocks hit.
  
• Over 60% of silver demand is industrial, leaving it exposed when energy costs and rate hike fears surged.
  
• Qatar’s helium facility destruction threatens chip fab output, reducing a core source of silver packaging demand.
  
• Gold dropped too but held ground as the PBOC bought for 16 straight months and 77% of central banks plan reserve increases.

Silver has dropped 43 percent since January 29, falling from an all-time high of $121.67 to $69.50 by Friday’s close. Gold also declined over the same period but found firmer ground through central bank demand.

The divergence between the two metals has raised fresh questions among commodity analysts and investors. These movements are reshaping how markets view silver’s role as both a monetary and industrial asset.

Silver’s Industrial Base Absorbs Three Simultaneous Shocks

More than 60 percent of silver demand is industrial, confirmed by JP Morgan’s commodities desk. Electronics, AI chip packaging, solar panels, and electric vehicle wiring are among its primary uses.

When hostilities closed the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices spiked and factory costs rose. Higher costs slowed industrial activity and pulled silver demand lower.

Analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera noted on social media that the divergence “is no longer a market event. It is a verdict.” The Federal Reserve now prices a 50 percent chance of a rate hike by October. The ECB and Bank of England are each repricing three or more hikes for 2026.

Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex supplied 30 to 33 percent of global helium before Iran struck it. SK Hynix sourced 64.7 percent of its helium from that facility alone.

Helium is essential for wafer cooling and lithography in chip fabrication. Fabs are reporting two to three months of buffer supply remaining.

When helium runs short, chip production slows and silver packaging demand falls. Energy spikes, rate hike expectations, and helium shortages hit silver’s industrial base at once.

The metal’s monetary narrative provided no shelter when factories came under economic pressure. Silver entered this environment with three demand shocks arriving simultaneously.

Gold Builds a Floor on Central Bank and Retail Demand

Gold fell from $5,589 in January to approximately $4,494 this week, but buying absorbed each drop. Chinese retail buyers cleared supplies in under 60 seconds each morning.

The People’s Bank of China extended its purchasing streak to 16 consecutive months. Chinese banks sold 600 kilograms of gold bars each morning in under a minute.

Seventy-seven percent of central banks plan to increase gold reserves, based on recent surveys. That sustained demand has built a structural floor under gold’s price.

Silver has no central bank buyer of last resort. Its floor rests entirely on industrial consumption, which is now under strain.

Gold’s support comes from institutional policy decisions, not factory orders. Silver’s support depends on factories now facing energy shocks and helium shortages.

The war revealed a structural difference between the two metals that many investors had not previously priced in. That difference now appears lasting rather than temporary.

Rate hike expectations in the United States and Europe continue to reinforce dollar strength. A stronger dollar adds persistent pressure on metals priced in that currency.

Silver enters this environment without central bank support. Whether industrial demand can stabilize will determine the metal’s next directional move.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), may rise by around 25% in the coming months as its richest whale group becomes profitable for the first time since early February.

Key takeaways:

• ETH gained 25% in three months and 50% in six months on average after top whales returned to profit in past cycles.

• Ether could rally above $2,750 by June if the on-chain whale metric signal plays out.

Whale metric signals ETH is bottoming already

The unrealized profit ratio of wallets holding more than 100,000 ETH has flipped back above zero, according to data resource CryptoQuant. In other words, this whale cohort is no longer sitting on aggregate paper losses.

In the past, similar transitions to a “profitable state marked the starting point of an uptrend,” said on-chain analyst CW.

ETH delivered nearly 25% returns on average three months after the whale ratio flipped to positive. Similarly, its price gained roughly 50% after six months and 300% after a year into the signal.

The price behavior suggests that once top ETH whales return to aggregate profit, they face less pressure to sell defensively. At the same time, the shift can strengthen broader market confidence by signaling renewed conviction among the richest ETH holders.

ETH may head toward the $2,750 area by June and to over $3,200 by September if the historical post-signal pattern holds.

Related: Early Ethereum whale rebuilds stack with $19.5M in ETH buys

Still, the whale ratio metric is not flawless. In 2018, for instance, ETH dropped 17.5% in the month after a similar flip and eventually tumbled nearly 70%.

Onchain data caps Ether’s upside at $2,640

Another on-chain signal is reinforcing Ethereum’s recovery case.

Glassnode data shows ETH rebounding from its lowest MVRV deviation band (blue), a setup similar to Q2 2022 and Q2 2025, when price recovered from undervalued levels and climbed back above realized price.

At current rates, ETH remains below its realized price (purple) at $2,353, which remains the first key recovery level. A break above that threshold could open the door toward the -0.5 sigma band (teal) near $2,640.

On the downside, failure to reclaim realized price could keep ETH exposed to a retest of the lowest deviation band near $1,651.

Ethereum’s technicals reiterate rally above $2,600

From a technical perspective, ETH has broken above its ascending triangle pattern and is now pulling back toward the former resistance trendline.

Such retests are common after breakouts, as markets often revisit the breakout level to confirm it has flipped into new support.

Ether could resume its recovery toward the triangle’s measured upside target at around $2,625 or higher if the upper trendline holds as support.

That level also sits within the broader on-chain recovery range outlined by Glassnode’s MVRV bands, adding confluence to the bullish setup.

A failed retest, on the other hand, would weaken the breakout structure and risk sending ETH back toward the lower support zone near $1,950-$2,000.