Meta launched Muse Spark on April 8, its first fully closed AI model, abandoning its open-source Llama strategy

Meta launched Muse Spark on April 8, its first fully closed AI model, abandoning its open-source Llama strategy. The launch marks the inaugural product from Meta Superintelligence Labs, the unit built around Alexandr Wang after Meta’s $14.3bn investment in Scale AI.

Wang said in a statement: “Nine months ago, we rebuilt our AI stack from scratch. New infrastructure, new architecture, new data pipelines. This is step one. Bigger models are already in development with plans to open-source future versions.”

Unlike Llama, Muse Spark’s weights are not publicly accessible. API access is currently by invitation only, targeting select partners. Meta has said it hopes to open-source future versions, framing the current closure as temporary.

Gartner analyst Arun Chandrasekaran described the move as a “major shift,” saying it signals Meta’s intention to move away from the Llama brand entirely.

What Muse Spark actually does

The model is natively multimodal, handling text, image, and voice inputs. Its flagship feature is a “Contemplating” mode that runs multiple reasoning agents in parallel before responding, competing directly with Gemini Deep Think and GPT Pro.

Meta collaborated with over 1,000 physicians to curate health-related training data, and the model is being marketed as a personal health reasoning tool alongside its general assistant capabilities.

Muse Spark sits below GPT-5.4 and Gemini 3.1 Pro on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, scoring 52 against their 57. Meta has not disclosed the model’s parameter count or architecture details. As crypto.news reported, the model beat Gemini 3.1 Pro on several health-related benchmarks that Meta prioritized in its evaluation suite.

Why Meta made the switch now

As crypto.news documented, Meta had been signaling a phased approach to its next AI generation, keeping core components proprietary while assessing safety risks.

The switch to a fully closed first release reflects the competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic, both of which have proprietary models generating billions in API revenue that Meta’s open-source approach could not capture.

Meta’s 2026 capital expenditure is guided at $115bn to $135bn, nearly double 2025 levels. Meta stock rose more than 9% on launch day, the strongest single-day response to a Meta product announcement in over two years. The developer community that built on Llama is now being asked to wait for a future open-source release with no confirmed timeline.

Bitcoin’s ongoing institutional embrace is drawing attention from across the market, but Strike CEO Jack Mallers argues that Wall Street’s deeper involvement does not undermine the asset’s core principles. In a wide-ranging conversation with Danny Knowles on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, Mallers defended Bitcoin’s ethos while acknowledging the a new era of capital flow.

“My one-word answer to that is no,” Mallers said, responding to whether institutional participation threatens Bitcoin’s foundational ideas. “If Wall Street getting into Bitcoin kills it, it was never going to be successful in the first place.” He framed the development as a natural part of Bitcoin’s evolution as it competes for global wealth, arguing that the asset’s mission to be “money for all” should include even those who might oppose it or come from different communities.

“Bitcoin is predicated on this idea that it is money for all. And the all part should be explored,” Mallers added. “That means your enemies, too.”

Key takeaways

• Strike’s Jack Mallers argues that Wall Street’s increasing involvement in Bitcoin does not threaten the asset’s core principles and may be essential to its broader adoption.
• 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs have drawn a combined net inflow of about $59.38 billion as of the most recent reporting period, underscoring rising institutional interest in Bitcoin exposure, according to data from Farside.
• The influx of traditional capital is framed as a competitive force for Bitcoin to become a global store of value, with wealth migrating toward digital assets as part of a broader monetization of Bitcoin’s network effects.
• Wall Street’s push into crypto access pathways is multiplying, with Morgan Stanley reported to have rolled out a cryptocurrency trading pilot on its E*Trade platform, offering retail clients a lower fee structure than many peers—50 basis points per transaction.
• Within the Bitcoin community, there are tensions about governance and development pace, with some critics warning that large institutions could seek to influence or replace development decisions if core concerns, such as quantum computing risk, are not addressed swiftly.

Bitcoin’s broadening narrative: Wall Street’s footprint deepens

Mallers’ comments speak to a broader debate inside crypto circles about whether Wall Street’s growing ownership, custody, and trading presence will shift Bitcoin’s social contract. Proponents say institutional participation brings legitimacy, risk management, and liquidity to a market that has long been driven by retail and tech-savvy participants. Critics warn that large holders could gain outsized influence over key decisions, potentially diluting Bitcoin’s original decentralization ethos. The tension is not merely theoretical: it is playing out in instruments and platforms that shape how non-technical investors access and perceive Bitcoin.

On one hand, the trend reflects a maturing market. Since the US introduced spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, a cohort of products has begun to attract institutional inflows. As of the latest reports, the 11 spot ETF funds have collectively accumulated about $59.38 billion in net inflows, illustrating that traditional asset managers see Bitcoin as a credible, scalable exposure for clients’ portfolios. This momentum aligns with a broader arc of traditional financial firms integrating crypto into their advisory and execution capabilities, signaling that Bitcoin is increasingly being analyzed and priced like a global macro asset rather than a niche tech product.

For investors, the implication is twofold: greater access to Bitcoin via familiar channels and the potential for deeper price discovery as large, diversified capital allocators participate. Yet the dynamic also raises questions about market structure, custody, and governance—areas where institutions historically exert influence. The debate remains whether Bitcoin can maintain its trustless, permissionless ideals while absorbing the efficiency and governance expectations of mainstream finance.

From on-ramp to on-chain: Wall Street’s retail access play

The period of institutional interest is accompanied by concrete moves that blur the line between traditional finance and crypto native services. Wall Street banks aren’t just offering exposure; they are building the plumbing for everyday investors to transact in digital assets. A notable development reported this week was Morgan Stanley’s reported rollout of a cryptocurrency trading pilot on its E*Trade platform. The pilot is described as offering lower basic retail fees than some of the largest crypto and brokerage platforms, pricing at around 50 basis points on the dollar value of trades. By pricing crypto access competitively, Morgan Stanley appears to be aiming to win a broader share of the retail crypto trading audience, potentially drawing customers away from pure-play crypto exchanges and traditional brokers alike.

The move signals a shift from mere custody or custody-adjacent services toward full execution capability and market access, a trend that could accelerate user adoption and reshape marketplace liquidity. While industry participants weigh fee levels and execution quality, observers are watching how such pilots will integrate with existing risk controls, compliance frameworks, and customer protection standards that are central to mainstream finance.

For traders and institutions, the evolving retail-on-ramp dynamic matters because it influences liquidity, price discovery, and the cost of capital in Bitcoin markets. A broader, more diverse base of participants can smooth price movements and reduce the risk of outsized moves tied to niche trader cohorts. However, it also elevates the importance of robust risk controls and transparent governance to maintain market integrity as new players enter the space.

Community perspectives: balancing ascent with core principles

Not all voices in the Bitcoin ecosystem are unreservedly celebratory about Wall Street’s growing presence. Some critics argue that large institutions could gain enough influence to shape Bitcoin’s development trajectory or question the pace at which developers address emerging concerns. In particular, discourse around resilience and future-proofing has included warnings that governance could shift if institutions push for faster timelines or more centralized decision-making. One prominent Bitcoin thinker cautioned that as institutions accumulate Bitcoin, they may seek to substitute governance or push for changes that align with their risk tolerances and timelines. The underlying tension is a reminder that Bitcoin’s architectural and policy choices—such as how updates are implemented and how disputes are resolved—remain critical to its long-term integrity. This debate has been echoed in coverage discussing technology risk, including concerns around quantum computing and the implications for security and development governance, as noted in broader industry conversations.

As these discussions unfold, observers will be watching how institutions engage with Bitcoin’s open-source development community, and whether traditional governance expectations are reconciled with the decentralized, permissionless ethos that helped Bitcoin reach its current status. The nuanced point, underscored by Mallers’ interview, is that Bitcoin’s universal appeal—its promise to be money for all—should be inclusive of diverse actors, even those with competing interests. Yet the challenge remains balancing rapid adoption and scale with the safeguards that maintain the network’s core trust framework.

For readers seeking context, these perspectives sit alongside ongoing reporting that institutional actors are actively shaping how crypto markets are accessed and regulated, and how new products and platforms can align with both investor protection and the network’s decentralization philosophy. As markets continue to evolve, watchers should monitor policy developments, custody standards, and the governance conversations that ultimately determine how Bitcoin navigates the intersection of innovation and institutional participation.

In sum, Mallers’ stance frames Wall Street’s ascent not as a threat but as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s global monetization and adoption. The coming quarters will reveal how this dynamic plays out across product design, market structure, and the delicate balance between openness and safeguards that define the asset’s path forward.

What’s next? Investors and users should watch for further institutional-thick liquidity in spot markets, the trajectory of ETF inflows, and how major banks balance consumer access with robust risk controls. Regulatory signals and governance debates will also be key to understanding whether the current momentum can translate into lasting, widely accessible on-chain usage and sustained price formation.

Bitcoin payments application Strike CEO Jack Mallers said that Wall Street’s growing involvement in Bitcoin poses no threat or conflict to the asset itself.

“My one-word answer to that is no,” Mallers told Danny Knowles on the What Bitcoin Did podcast published to YouTube on Thursday, in response to whether institutional involvement threatens Bitcoin’s core principles.
“If Wall Street getting into Bitcoin kills it, it was never going to be successful in the first place,” Mallers said.

Jack Mallers spoke to Danny Knowles on the What Bitcoin Did podcast. Source: What Bitcoin Did

“Bitcoin is predicated on this idea that it is money for all. And the all part should be explored. That means your enemies, too,” he said. “That means the ex-wife that cheated on you, that means your neighbor that’s a fan of the opposing football club, that’s everybody,” he added.

Bitcoin is competing for global capital, says Mallers

Some Bitcoiners argue that Wall Street’s presence threatens Bitcoin’s original ethos by concentrating ownership, influence and custody of the asset in the hands of large financial institutions. Since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in the US in January 2024, the 11 funds have collectively recorded $59.38 billion in net inflows as of Friday, according to Farside data.

However, Mallers said the “obvious implication” is that Wall Street and other major traditional investors would get involved in Bitcoin as the asset competes for global capital.

“Where wealth exists today, those things will be demonetized like real estate will be demonetized, fine art will be demonetized, government debt will be demonetized, and Bitcoin will be monetized,” he said.

Some Bitcoiners have argued that growing institutional involvement could eventually give large firms too much influence over Bitcoin itself. Bitcoiner and venture capitalist Nic Carter said that major Bitcoin-holding institutions may eventually lose patience with Bitcoin developers for not addressing quantum computing concerns quickly enough. “I think the big institutions that now exist in Bitcoin, they will get fed up, and they will fire the devs and put in new devs,” Carter said in February.

Wall Street moves in on crypto platforms’ customers

There have been several developments in Wall Street’s adoption of Bitcoin and, more broadly, crypto over the past couple of years.

Related: CLARITY Act support carries electoral boost, HarrisX poll finds

Most recently, on Tuesday, it was reported that Morgan Stanley rolled out a cryptocurrency trading pilot on its E*Trade platform, charging lower basic retail fees than some of the largest US crypto and brokerage platforms. 

The Wall Street bank is charging clients 50 basis points on the dollar value of each crypto transaction, undercutting Coinbase, Robinhood and Charles Schwab on standard retail pricing. 

Magazine: Guide to the top and emerging global crypto hubs: Mid-2026

BITCOIN just broke past $81,000 for the first time since January, and the best crypto to invest in landed back at the center of every portfolio decision. April ETF inflows hit $2.44 billion, the strongest monthly figure since October 2025, and that kind of institutional buying confirms the recovery is built on real demand rather than a short-lived bounce.

Meanwhile, Pepeto keeps banking capital at presale pricing, with $9.84 million raised and an expected Binance listing that could reprice the token before most buyers even notice.

While institutions stack BITCOIN through ETFs and retail watches from the sidelines, Pepeto’s PepetoSwap exchange and risk scoring tool bring direct trading paths and contract verification to every wallet. The presale window is narrowing by the day.

BITCOIN Rallies Past $81,000 on ETF Demand and Geopolitical Relief

BITCOIN hit $81,000 on May 5 as multiple catalysts came together at once. April spot ETF inflows reached $2.44 billion, with BlackRock and Fidelity leading the buying, according to CoinDesk.

The move also followed eased Middle East tensions after an announcement around the Strait of Hormuz, which lifted risk assets broadly. This rally confirms that capital is returning to crypto at a pace that makes the best crypto to invest in conversation relevant for anyone sitting on the sidelines.

Projects and Coins Defining the Best Crypto to Invest in for This Market Cycle

Pepeto

The BITCOIN rally is a reminder of how the capital flow works in crypto. Institutions and large wallets move first during fear, and by the time the recovery shows up on the chart, the cheapest entries are already gone. Whether it is ETF demand during a dip or whale buying before a breakout, the wallets that act during doubt collect what the late arrivals cannot reach.

Pepeto, considered the best crypto to invest in, was designed to close that distance. Created by the mind behind the original PEPE coin who proved what happens when 420 trillion tokens meet a community that refuses to stop buying, Pepeto’s PepetoSwap marketplace processes token trades and the risk scoring tool audits smart contracts before capital touches anything dangerous.

This functioning product is precisely why the presale banked more than $9.84 million during a market that crushed most new launches. At $0.0000001868, the project is backed by a functioning marketplace that traders already use, and the projected upside ranges from 100x to 300x because the entry window opened at the same stage where every past winner started before anyone cared.

Compare this to waiting for established coins to double from prices that already carry billions in market cap. Pepeto does not need years to play out because the expected Binance listing marks the moment when presale holders see their entry repriced against the full market for the first time.

Independent verification from SolidProof covers every contract, staking at 175 percent APY grows positions daily for wallets that moved early, and the distance between $0.0000001868 and a listing price set by millions of traders is the kind of gap that created every crypto fortune worth talking about.

DOGECOIN

DOGECOIN (DOGE) is trading near $0.10 after whales loaded 160 million tokens in 96 hours and the first DOGE ETF attracted fresh inflows. The price cleared the 50-day and 100-day moving averages for the first time in months, and technical targets now sit at $0.126 where the 200-day moving average waits as resistance.

While DOGE carries strong whale backing and growing ETF attention, the token still trades 84 percent below its all-time high of $0.7376 and needs multiple catalysts to reclaim higher ground, which is why many searching for the best crypto to invest in look at earlier-stage projects with a clear listing catalyst still ahead.

ETHEREUM

ETHEREUM (ETH) is trading near $2,285 according to CoinMarketCap after the Glamsterdam upgrade went live and tripled the gas limit to 200 million per block, according to Reuters. ETF inflows reached nine consecutive days, and whale buying topped 230,000 ETH in one week, which means large buyers are treating this zone as a long-term entry.

While ETH holds the strongest technical infrastructure in crypto, the price still sits 53 percent below its all-time high of $4,953 and needs sustained demand above $2,500 to confirm the next leg higher.

Conclusion

The market always pays the most to the earliest believers, and the window to be early does not stay open once the listing arrives. PEPE turned small wallets into millions with zero products, and those entries can never come back. More than $9.84 million flowing into this presale during market fear means those wallets see the same setup that rewarded the earliest holders in every previous cycle, and that is exactly what the best crypto to invest in conversation comes down to right now.

Pepeto carries the backing of the PEPE cofounder, a live marketplace, a risk scoring tool, and an expected Binance listing that could go live any day. One simple decision, entering now instead of waiting, is the difference between being the wallet that collected 100x to 300x and being the one that watched from the sidelines and spent the rest of the cycle wishing they had moved when it cost almost nothing.

The listing is not months away, it is close, and every day of hesitation shrinks the window that separates life-changing returns from regret that lasts the entire bull run.

Click To Visit Pepeto Website To Enter The Presale

FAQs

What makes Pepeto the best crypto to invest in during the 2026 bull market?

Pepeto is the best crypto to invest in during the 2026 bull market because it combines a working marketplace, a contract risk scorer, and an expected Binance listing into one presale entry at $0.0000001868. The project has raised more than $9.84 million with 175 percent APY staking that grows positions for holders who entered before listing.

How does the BITCOIN rally affect the best crypto to invest in right now?

The BITCOIN rally past $81,000 confirms institutional money is back in the market, and that capital historically rotates into smaller tokens within days of BTC breaking key levels. Presale entries with listing catalysts ahead capture the largest returns during this rotation phase.

Is DOGECOIN or ETHEREUM a stronger investment than Pepeto in 2026?

DOGECOIN and ETHEREUM carry solid technical backing but sit 84 percent and 53 percent below their all-time highs respectively, which limits their short-term upside. Pepeto offers a presale entry at $0.0000001868 with an expected Binance listing that sets a clear repricing event no established coin can match.

Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.

TLDR:

• Ondo Finance holds near $0.44 as accumulation signals strengthen across trading sessions
• Ondo Finance benefits from RWA expansion as institutional inflows support the market recovery trend
• Market structure improves as ONDO shows higher lows and reduced downside pressure overall
• Cross-border settlement with major institutions strengthens ONDO’s relevance in tokenized finance

Ondo Finance is on a revival journey as its price structure strengthens alongside its real-world asset adoption and institutional settlement progress. This move is showing a reflection of renewed confidence across digital asset markets.

Accumulation Structure and RWA-Driven Price Action

Ondo Finance is trading within a strengthening accumulation range after months of broad market correction pressure.

Price behavior around the $0.20 zone has repeatedly attracted buyers, establishing a notable demand foundation across sessions. 

Following this reaction, ONDO recorded a sharp rebound of nearly 88 percent from recent lows with sustained volume expansion.

This movement suggests that selling pressure is gradually being absorbed as market structure shifts toward recovery formation stages.

RWA sector momentum continues to support Ondo Finance as tokenized treasuries and yield products attract renewed attention.

Market participants are increasingly rotating liquidity into real-world asset protocols as institutional demand expands across digital markets. 

This rotation has strengthened ONDO positioning within narrative-driven altcoins, especially as volatility compresses near support regions.

Ondo Finance, therefore, remains positioned within a structurally improving range supported by gradual capital inflows and renewed participation.

The technical structure shows higher lows forming consistently, indicating absorption of supply during consolidation phases across trading intervals.

This pattern often precedes expansion phases when liquidity returns, and market sentiment stabilizes after extended uncertainty periods.

Ondo Finance, therefore, remains positioned within a structurally improving range supported by gradual capital inflows and renewed participation. 

Cross-Border Settlement and Institutional Integration

Ondo Finance has advanced its institutional relevance through a near real-time cross-border redemption of a tokenized U.S. Treasury fund.

The transaction involved collaboration with Kinexys by JPMorgan, Mastercard, and Ripple across a hybrid settlement infrastructure.

Execution occurred using both public blockchain systems and traditional interbank rails, enabling seamless financial interoperability.

Settlement completion outside standard banking windows demonstrates continuous operational capability within tokenized financial systems. This framework supports the concept of 24/7 global settlement for digital assets across integrated financial networks.

Ondo Finance remains positioned within this evolving structure as institutional testing of blockchain settlement expands globally.

Market response reflects growing attention toward tokenized treasury products and real-time settlement efficiency across institutional channels.

Financial institutions continue exploring blockchain integration to improve settlement speed and reduce operational constraints.

Ondo Finance benefits from this environment as the adoption of real-world asset tokenization increases steadily across markets. 

The collaboration between major financial entities signals increased alignment between traditional finance systems and blockchain networks.

This alignment supports broader experimentation with hybrid settlement models across global financial infrastructure frameworks. 

Continued progress in tokenized settlement may shape future cross-border transaction standards across regulated markets.

Ondo Finance remains a reference point in this evolving financial infrastructure transformation phase. Liquidity flows indicate sustained interest from participants evaluating blockchain-based settlement systems. globally

Ondo price surged above $0.30 after a JPMorgan-Mastercard tokenized Treasury pilot and strong Q1 growth pushed TVL to $3.53 billion.

According to data from crypto.news, Ondo (ONDO) climbed to an intraday high near $0.40 on May 8 before slightly easing to around $0.39 at press time. The token has now gained more than 50% over the past week, making it one of the strongest-performing major RWA-focused assets during the period.

The latest rally comes amid a series of major institutional developments tied to Ondo’s tokenized treasury products.

One of the biggest catalysts was the successful completion of a cross-border institutional settlement pilot involving Ondo, JPMorgan’s Kinexys, Mastercard, and Ripple. The pilot demonstrated the redemption and settlement of tokenized U.S. Treasuries using blockchain infrastructure, with the asset leg reportedly finalized in under five seconds on the XRP Ledger.

The development strengthened investor confidence that tokenized financial products are gradually moving closer to real-world institutional adoption.

ONDO also benefited earlier this week after being selected for the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation’s Industry Working Group, an initiative focused on exploring how tokenization could modernize capital markets infrastructure. The DTCC currently processes transactions worth quadrillions of dollars annually across global financial markets.

Strong fundamentals also helped sustain the rally. Ondo recently reported $13.26 million in Q1 revenue, while total value locked climbed to roughly $3.53 billion, reflecting continued growth across its tokenized asset ecosystem.

At the same time, anticipation surrounding Ondo’s planned expansion to the Solana ecosystem, including the launch of more than 200 tokenized stocks and ETFs, has further supported bullish momentum.

Ondo price analysis

On the daily chart, ONDO has now broken above the major horizontal resistance zone near $0.30, a level that capped multiple recovery attempts since February. The breakout followed several months of sideways consolidation between roughly $0.24 and $0.30, suggesting that buyers gradually absorbed selling pressure before the latest move higher.

The rally also pushed price well above the Supertrend resistance level, with the indicator now beginning to flip bullish after remaining in a bearish structure for months.

Meanwhile, the Aroon Up indicator has surged to 100%, while the Aroon Down has dropped toward 35%, signaling strengthening bullish momentum and a possible shift in broader trend direction.

However, momentum indicators also suggest the rally may be overheating in the short term. ONDO’s Relative Strength Index recently climbed above 81, indicating heavily overbought conditions that could trigger temporary profit-taking or volatility after the sharp move higher.

If bulls maintain control above the $0.30 breakout zone, the next major upside target could emerge near $0.47, which marks the January local high and a key resistance region from the broader downtrend structure.

On the downside, losing the newly reclaimed $0.30 support level could weaken the breakout structure and potentially trigger a pullback toward the $0.24 consolidation range.

TLDR:

• Ethereum’s DeFi TVL share dropped from 63.5% to 54% in 2026, yet it still leads with $45.4 billion locked.
  
• Hyperliquid recorded $9.37 billion in 24-hour perpetuals volume, confirming its role as DeFi’s top perps venue.
  
• Tron holds $89.6 billion in stablecoins with USDT at 97.86%, making it crypto’s largest dollar-settlement rail.
  
• Ethereum’s DeFi TVL share could recover to 55–58% or compress to 46–50% by end-2026, data projects.

Ethereum DeFi TVL declined from 63.5% at the start of 2025 to approximately 54% as of May 7, 2026. Even so, Ethereum retains the top position with $45.4 billion locked across protocols, per DeFiLlama.

Rival chains have narrowed the gap by targeting distinct roles in decentralized finance. BSC dominates DEX flow, Tron leads stablecoin settlement, and Hyperliquid controls perpetuals. Each of these competing chains currently holds under 7% of DeFi TVL individually.

How Rival Chains Are Claiming Specialized DeFi Roles

BSC built its position through Binance distribution and PancakeSwap integration. In Q2 2025, PancakeSwap volume surged 539.2% quarter-over-quarter to $392.6 billion.

Binance deepened this through Alpha Earn and Alpha 2.0, embedding DEX trading inside its exchange interface. DeFiLlama shows BSC at $5.55 billion in TVL and $739.6 million in 24-hour DEX volume.

Tron operates as a stablecoin settlement rail rather than a broad trading platform. DeFiLlama records $89.6 billion in stablecoins on the network, with USDT at 97.86% of that total.

Its 24-hour DEX volume of only $55.5 million confirms thin application diversity. At $5.19 billion in TVL, Tron stands as crypto’s leading stablecoin settlement network.

Bitcoin’s DeFi TVL reached $5.34 billion with 6.35% dominance, growing 13.4% over 30 days. Its 24-hour DEX volume of $338,516 confirms that capital flows to Bitcoin for yield, not active trading. The BTCFi model centers on collateral use and lending protocols rather than exchange activity.

Hyperliquid has grown into a purpose-built on-chain perpetuals venue. DeFiLlama shows $9.37 billion in 24-hour perpetuals volume and $8.94 billion in open interest.

Its TVL of $1.52 billion understates its true market weight. These metrics confirm that perpetuals now form a self-contained DeFi liquidity center.

Ethereum’s Remaining Strengths and the Path Forward

Ethereum’s absolute position remains strong across key DeFi metrics. DeFiLlama records $45.4 billion in TVL and $165.5 billion in stablecoins.

The chain hosts blue-chip lending protocols and the deepest stablecoin pools in the market. Institutional integrations continue to place Ethereum as the core balance sheet for DeFi.

Base adds nuance here, operating within the Ethereum technology stack. Coinbase built Base as an L2 on the OP Stack, available in over 140 countries.

Activity on Base still settles within Ethereum’s security model. DeFiLlama puts Base at $4.58 billion in TVL and $854.97 million in 24-hour DEX volume.

Two scenarios project Ethereum’s DeFi TVL share by end-2026. In the recovery path, share climbs to 55%–58% as stablecoin and lending growth outpaces specialist chains.

Ethereum’s $165.5 billion stablecoin base and lending depth support this outcome. Institutional tokenization further reinforces capital concentration on Ethereum.

In the compression scenario, Ethereum’s DeFi TVL share falls toward 46%–50% by end-2026. This occurs if Binance deepens integration, BTCFi grows further, and Hyperliquid maintains its perpetuals lead.

Ethereum would then serve as DeFi’s settlement layer while user activity shifts to specialized venues. Its stablecoin depth and institutional role keep it central regardless.

Acting Labor Secretary Sandlin’s push for earlier Fed cuts clashes with a cautious central bank, leaving crypto trading a “higher for longer” regime even as the political drumbeat for easing grows louder.

For crypto markets, what matters is less Sandlin’s individual statement and more how it interacts with the evolving Fed path. Crypto.news has already documented how falling odds of 2026 rate cuts have pressured bitcoin, with one story noting that BTC retreated after strong GDP data pushed back expectations for easing and left traders re‑pricing key support around $80,000. Another crypto.news story showed a similar pattern after disappointing jobs revisions in February: as markets inferred “higher for longer,” the total crypto market cap dropped and bitcoin slid below $67,000.

When cuts do arrive, the reaction is not always straightforward. As BitMarkets pointed out in an analysis, a recent 25‑basis‑point Fed cut to the 3.5–3.75% range, though fully priced in, did not produce the expected follow‑through in BTC and ETH, with both coins stalling as traders sold the news. In another episode tracked by TradingView’s news desk, bitcoin briefly spiked above $93,000 on the announcement of a Fed cut before fading as markets digested guidance that further easing would be gradual.

The through‑line is that crypto trades the whole policy regime, not just the direction of the next move. Goldman Sachs Research still forecasts two more Fed cuts over the next year, which would leave rates around 3–3.25%, but warns that a higher‑for‑longer scenario remains plausible if inflation stays sticky. For now, Sandlin’s call for cuts might help bolster the medium‑term narrative that political and labor‑market pressure will eventually force the Fed to ease — a backdrop that historically has favored bitcoin and ethereum as “duration” assets — but until the data flip or Fed communication softens, the balance of risk for crypto remains tied to a policy rate that is, in the Fed’s own words, “significantly in restrictive territory.”

Hong Kong’s SFC flags HabitTrade in a warning on unlicensed virtual asset platforms, but the broker insists it hasn’t done regulated business or marketed services to Hong Kong investors and blames unauthorized third‑party promoters.

HabitTrade has pushed back against an investor alert from Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission, saying it does not carry out regulated activities in the city and has not marketed its services to Hong Kong residents. In a statement posted on X, the brokerage said it “is a licensed Australian brokerage and compliant financial services platform” and that it “has not conducted any regulated business in Hong Kong, nor promoted or provided related services to the public in Hong Kong,” directly disputing any suggestion that it is operating there without authorization.

The clarification comes after the SFC published a notice reminding the public to be wary of “unlicensed platforms and related market promotional activities,” explicitly flagging HabitTrade in the context of suspicious marketing around virtual asset trading. While the regulator’s latest web alert does not yet list HabitTrade by name on its public “suspicious virtual asset trading platforms” page, the SFC has regularly used such notices to call out firms it believes may be targeting Hong Kong investors without a license. In an earlier circular on crypto products, the SFC warned that dealing in virtual asset futures or routing related orders for Hong Kong clients is a “Type 2” regulated activity and “requires a license from the SFC regardless of whether the business is located in Hong Kong.”

HabitTrade argues that any recent marketing push is not coming from the company itself. The broker said that “some third-party promotional content, video materials, and platform traffic diversion activities that have recently appeared in the market do not represent the official position of HabitTrade,” adding that it “reserves the right to trace and take legal action against any misleading promotions and violations using its brand, technological channels, or partnerships without authorization.” The firm also pledged to “adhere to a compliance-first approach and cooperate with the regulatory requirements of relevant jurisdictions to conduct necessary investigations,” signaling that it is prepared to work with authorities to identify promoters it says are misusing its name.

The dispute highlights how aggressive Hong Kong’s enforcement stance around virtual assets has become. In 2023, the SFC warned unlicensed virtual asset trading platforms that making false claims about license applications or offering prohibited services such as staking could constitute a criminal offence under the Anti‑Money Laundering and Counter‑Terrorist Financing Ordinance. In February 2024, the regulator and local police jointly warned about an alleged scam using the name of MEXC, putting the platform on its alert list and reiterating that overseas exchanges cannot market or serve Hong Kong retail users without a license, as crypto.news reported in a detailed story.

Those rules have only tightened. A recent crypto.news story on Hong Kong’s upcoming stablecoin and virtual asset regime noted that the city is building out parallel licensing systems for exchanges, custodians, dealers and advisers, and making it explicit that any foreign platform “targeting” Hong Kong investors via marketing or website localization is within scope. Against that backdrop, HabitTrade’s insistence that it has done no regulated business in Hong Kong is as much about legal risk as it is about reputation: under current SFC guidance, even the perception of soliciting Hong Kong users without a license can be enough to land a platform on the regulator’s alert list, with all the banking and counterparties problems that follow.