TLDR

• IBM stock has dropped 28.6% in under a month, falling from $312.95 to $223.35
• The selloff was triggered by Anthropic highlighting COBOL functionality in Claude Code, raising fears AI could erode IBM’s legacy business
• Jefferies analyst Brent Thill maintained a Buy rating with a $370 price target, calling the dip a buying opportunity
• IBM’s watsonx Code Assistant for Z has been available since Q4 2023 and already converts COBOL to Java using generative AI
• IBM announced a new partnership with Deepgram, making it the first voice partner integrated into watsonx Orchestrate

IBM stock has had a rough few weeks. It has fallen 28.6% in less than a month, dropping from $312.95 on February 2 to $223.35, putting it near its 52-week low.

The single biggest blow came when the stock dropped 13% in one day — its largest single-day decline since 2000.

The catalyst was a blog post from Anthropic. The AI company highlighted COBOL functionality in its Claude Code platform, pointing out that hundreds of billions of COBOL lines remain active across finance, airlines, and government sectors.

International Business Machines Corporation, IBM

That spooked investors. IBM has long been a key player in COBOL-dependent systems like payment processing and financial infrastructure. The fear: AI could reduce demand for IBM’s legacy COBOL services.

The broader selloff also reflects a market-wide shift away from legacy tech, with investors moving toward quantum computing startups and high-yield bonds.

Jefferies Holds Its Ground

Not everyone is running. Jefferies analyst Brent Thill pushed back on the panic, arguing IBM is “already disrupting itself.”

Thill pointed to IBM’s watsonx Code Assistant for Z, which has been generally available since Q4 2023. The tool uses generative AI to convert COBOL into Java, interpret production code, and update legacy applications.

He argues this gives IBM a structural edge over general-purpose AI coding tools, which lack native access to mainframe data and operational context.

Thill also noted that IBM is building for a “multi-model, agentic world” by partnering with Anthropic, OpenAI, and others — meaning the very companies seen as threats are also partners.

He called the selloff a “near-term sentiment overhang on legacy services rather than an existential or structural risk” and maintained his Buy rating with a $370 price target, implying 66% upside from current levels.

Eleven other analysts share his bullish view. Five analysts have a Hold rating and one has a Sell, giving IBM a Moderate Buy consensus. The average price target sits at $337.53, pointing to roughly 51% upside over 12 months.

IBM Adds Voice AI Partner

On the same day, IBM announced a collaboration with Deepgram, making it IBM’s first voice AI partner.

Deepgram’s speech-to-text and text-to-speech technology will be embedded into IBM’s watsonx Orchestrate platform, allowing users to interact with AI agents using natural speech.

The integration supports multiple languages and dialects, including Arabic and Indian variants, and targets use cases in customer care, call analysis, and voice-driven data entry in healthcare and finance.

IBM’s P/E ratio currently sits at 20.3, and at least one analysis flags the stock as undervalued relative to its fair value.

Historically, IBM has only seen one comparable dip of 30% or more in under 30 days since 2010. Following that event, the stock posted a peak recovery of 42% within 12 months.

The correlation between the two assets has fallen hard recently.

Bitcoin is not in its ‘digital gold’ period, asserted the CEO and founder of the analytics company CryptoQuant. He based his conclusion on the fact that the correlation between the largest cryptocurrency and the biggest precious metal has diverged massively in the past several months.

Bitcoin is in a “not digital gold” period. pic.twitter.com/ka90HG8zmx

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) February 24, 2026

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When we examine the price performance of bitcoin and gold more closely, we can clearly see where this difference comes from. The correlation between the two was mostly in the green between 2022 and mid-2024.

Then, they broke out, going into red territory for the first time in years during and after the US presidential elections at the end of 2024. BTC skyrocketed to new peaks, while gold trailed behind.

Once the precious metal started to catch up, the correlation jumped to and over 0.5 by Q3 and early Q4 of 2025. However, that’s when the entire landscape in crypto broke, while the precious metal market continued to blossom.

Bitcoin experienced one of its most painful daily corrections on October 10 that altered the industry’s fabric. In a 24-hour period, the entire market collapsed, leaving more than $19 billion in liquidations.

Since then, the asset has not only been unable to recover to the previous heights, but it has continuously declined in value, dropping to $63,000 as of press time. In other words, it sits 50% away from its peak.

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In contrast, gold’s price tapped a new all-time high at $5,600 at the end of January, and, besides its instant and untypical crash to $4,400, has been mostly sitting around and above $5,000. It now trades 30% above its October 10 price of $4,000, and its market cap is north of $36.1 trillion. This means the difference between the two is roughly 30x in terms of market cap.

Solana price has slipped below a recent consolidation range, signaling weakening short-term momentum. SOL had been trading sideways for weeks before breaking lower. 

The decline reflects muted investor demand. This cautious sentiment persists even as Solana expands real-world blockchain adoption.

Solana Bhutan Expand Collaboration

Bhutan recently launched the world’s first Solana-backed visa tailored for digital nomads. The initiative builds on the government’s earlier launch of a gold-backed token, TER, on the Solana blockchain. These developments highlight Solana’s expanding role in sovereign-backed digital infrastructure.

Government-level adoption strengthens Solana’s credibility as a scalable blockchain platform. However, adoption alone has not yet translated into immediate bullish price momentum for SOL.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Solana Holders Exhibit Concern

On-chain metrics show that SOL holders remain cautious. Realized net profit and loss data indicate investors continue selling at a loss. This pattern reflects fading confidence in a near-term rebound. Market participants appear focused on capital preservation rather than accumulation.

During the past 24 hours, as the broader crypto market declined, realized losses jumped by $68 million to $317 million. Elevated realized losses signal sustained bearish sentiment. Persistent selling pressure reduces recovery strength and reinforces short-term downside risks for the Solana price.

Bearishness has extended into the derivatives market. Liquidation data shows short positions currently dominate long exposure. Traders appear positioned for further downside. This imbalance suggests that speculative sentiment remains defensive despite ecosystem growth.

The liquidation map reveals $1.15 billion in potential short liquidations if SOL climbs to $89. By comparison, only $242 million in long liquidations would trigger if the price falls to $67. This skew indicates greater pressure on bearish positions during sharp upward moves.

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SOL Price Is Looking At Volatility

Solana price is trading at $76 at the time of writing. Bollinger Bands are converging, signaling an impending volatility squeeze. Such setups often precede sharp price movements. Based on prevailing bearish indicators, downside risk currently appears elevated.

If SOL loses the $73 support level, the next downside target stands near $64. A drop to this zone could trigger long liquidations. Increased forced selling may intensify volatility and deepen short-term losses for holders.

Conversely, a shift in sentiment could support recovery. If bulls regain control, Solana price may reenter consolidation between $78 and $87. Sustained stability within this range would improve structure. A breakout above $89 could trigger $1.15 billion in short liquidations, accelerating upside momentum.

A market analysis viewed almost 5 million times on X states that Bitcoin derivatives have turned the cryptocurrency’s 21-million-supply cap into a “theoretically infinite” one.

Past Bitcoin (BTC) falls had a clear catalyst, but sharp drops in the opening months of 2026 have sparked several theories, ranging from digital asset treasuries (DATs) blowing up under pressure to a lingering hangover from October’s mass liquidation cascade.

Robert Kendall, author of “The Kendall Report,” claimed he cracked it in his viral X post. He argued that Bitcoin’s valuation logic based on fixed supply “died” once cash-settled futures, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other financial instruments were layered on top of the asset.

However, executives and researchers across the digital asset industry rejected Kendall’s analysis. Several told Cointelegraph that leverage affects price dynamics without changing Bitcoin’s underlying supply.

Harriet Browning, vice president of sales at institutional staking company Twinstake, told Cointelegraph, “When institutions allocate via ETFs and DATs, they are not diluting scarcity, as there will still only ever be 21 million. They are not minting new Bitcoin.”

“Instead, they are putting Bitcoin into the hands of long-term institutional holders who deeply understand its value proposition, not speculative traders looking for a quick exit,” she added.

Scarcity, lost coins and the question of effective float

When Bitcoin was first introduced to the world, the only way to acquire it was to buy it from other enthusiasts, mine it or trade it for pizza. Soon, crypto exchanges became available and opened retail access to the spot market.

In 2026, investors can also gain exposure through financial products built on spot crypto. To put it simply, Bitcoin now has a paper market of its own. However, skeptics of Kendall’s analysis said that a paper market does not damage Bitcoin’s scarcity.

“Gold has a massive paper market in futures, ETFs and unallocated accounts that dwarfs physical supply, yet nobody argues gold isn’t scarce. Paper claims don’t change the amount of gold in the ground, and the same logic applies to Bitcoin,” Luke Nolan, a senior research associate at CoinShares, told Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin is often compared to gold for similarities like headlining the internet generation’s own gold rush, being a store of value and being a hedge against currency debasement. It is also programmed to a hard supply cap that doesn’t fluctuate even when investment products are built on top of it, much like a gold bar wouldn’t magically sprout out of its own derivatives.

Like precious metals, new Bitcoin enters the market through a process called mining. Instead of digging the earth, the system rewards those who verify transactions on the blockchain about every 10 minutes. Those rewards are sliced in half every four years, so Bitcoin’s supply growth slows over time, along with the amount of virgin Bitcoin entering the economy.

As of February, about 19.99 million BTC has been mined, though Nolan calls this metric misleading, as not all of these coins are available for investors. Users can lose their passwords or take them to their graves. Up to 4 million coins are estimated to be permanently lost.

With more spot Bitcoin becoming inaccessible, Nolan claimed that the institutional access layer actually reinforces Bitcoin’s scarcity.

“Spot ETFs require physical BTC to be held in custody, and in 2025 alone, combined ETF and corporate treasury holdings grew significantly. That is real supply being pulled off the market,” he said.

Related: Are quantum-proof Bitcoin wallets insurance or a fear tax?

Bitcoin’s shift to derivatives-led price formation

Even critics of Kendall’s supply argument acknowledge that Bitcoin’s short-term price discovery now leans heavily on instruments tied to institutional markets.

Derivative activity has increasingly shifted to traditional finance venues. CME futures overtook Binance in BTC futures open interest in late 2023, although Binance recently regained the lead.

“Derivatives markets have become the primary venue for expressing institutional views on Bitcoin, and as a result, they now play a central role in spot price discovery,” said Browning.

Browning added that derivatives and ETFs influence Bitcoin’s spot price through three main transmission channels.

First, markets like CME influence short-term price discovery because institutional traders express their bullish or bearish views in futures before the spot market. When futures prices diverge from spot prices, traders opt for arbitrage strategies, such as basis trades, to close the gap. According to Browning, hedge funds routinely buy spot Bitcoin or its ETFs while shorting CME futures to capture the premium between the two.

Second, when banks sell Bitcoin-linked notes to clients, they typically hedge their exposure by buying Bitcoin through ETFs, effectively creating more spot demand.

Related: Banks can’t seem to service crypto, even as it goes mainstream

Third, crypto-native perpetual futures can spill over into the spot market through funding-rate arbitrage. When funding rates are positive, heavy long positioning encourages traders to buy spot Bitcoin and short futures to earn funding payments, adding spot demand. When funding turns negative, that flow can reverse and pressure the price.

“Today, derivatives volumes frequently exceed spot volumes, and many institutional participants prefer derivatives, alongside ETFs, for capital efficiency, hedging and short exposure,” Browning said.

“Spot markets increasingly serve as the settlement and inventory layer, while derivatives increasingly influence marginal price discovery, and new price levels are negotiated.”

Derivatives don’t delete Bitcoin’s scarcity from the blockchain

The rise of Bitcoin’s paper market means investors no longer have to directly hold BTC to gain exposure.

Futures and perpetual contracts allow investors to express bullish or bearish views, hedge risk or deploy leverage. Similar derivatives have long existed in commodities markets without altering the physical amount of gold, oil or other assets in circulation.

Nima Beni, founder of crypto leasing platform BitLease, told Cointelegraph:

“The premise that synthetic exposure destroys scarcity is as flawed as a misapplied commodity-market analogy used about paper gold. It was wrong then; it’s wrong now.”

Kendall defended his position after Bitcoiners equipped with their own arguments flooded his viral post.

“I’m not arguing [derivatives] ‘delete’ scarcity from the blockchain. What I’m saying is they shift where marginal price is set,” he said.

Bitcoin’s 21-million cap remains unchanged in code. No derivative contract, ETF or structured product can mint new coins beyond that limit. But what has evolved around Bitcoin is price discovery.

Derivatives increasingly shape marginal price formation before flows filter back into spot. That alters how and where Bitcoin’s value is negotiated.

Both Kendall and his critics ultimately agree on that point.

Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum: BIP-360 co-author