The latest U.S. inflation report for March, due Friday, is seen as a vital indicator by several observers, given the backdrop of the Iran war and its inflationary impact.

Yet, the latest activity in the bitcoin BTC$71,362.30 market shows that traders do not see it as a major market mover.

“The bitcoin market is currently pricing in just a 2.5% swing in either direction on the back of the inflation data,” Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, told CoinDesk in an email. These probabilities are derived from options and derivatives pricing, which reflect traders’ expectations of how much Bitcoin could move over a given time frame.

A 2.5% swing is well within bitcoin’s recent average volatility, indicating that the market isn’t expecting any major directional moves from the inflation data.

The market calm is also evident in the widely tracked 30-day implied volatility, represented by the BVIV index, which has dropped to 46.5%, the lowest since Jan. 31, according to data source TradingView.

This translates to an expected daily move of about 2.9%, which is well below the 30-day average of 3.4%. Implied volatility is determined by demand for options, or hedging bets, and represents traders’ expectations for price swings over a specific period.

The data clearly shows that traders are largely treating Friday’s consumer price index (CPI) release as a non-event. That’s somewhat uncanny, given that the data is likely to offer a glimpse of the inflationary impact of the Iran war, which began in late February.

“Even if the U.S. price figures for March are unlikely to reflect the full extent of the situation, they do provide an initial indication of how strongly the Middle East conflict could be felt in US prices,” Commerzbank said.

It’s worth noting that interest rate markets have largely dialed back expectations for Fed rate cuts this year as the Iran war and the resulting energy price shock have increased inflation risks.

CPI due Friday

The CPI data, scheduled for release on Friday at 8:30 ET, is expected to show that the cost of living rose 3.4% year-on-year in March, a sharp increase from February’s 2.4% reading, according to data source MarketWatch. The core figure, which excludes the volatile food and energy component, is forecast to have increased by 2.7% following March’s 2.5% rise.

The expected sharp upswing is largely due to fuel and energy price spike triggered by the Iran war and the oil price surge. U.S. gasoline prices surged in March 2026, exceeding $4 per gallon nationally for the first time since August 2022.

Several experts believe that macro conditions, particularly inflation data, are the dominant market drivers.

“With the energy shock still feeding through to prices, every inflation print carries asymmetric weight for crypto — a softer read reopens the rate-cut conversation; a hotter one hardens the higher-for-longer narrative further,” Iliya Kalchev, analyst at Nexo, said in an email. Nexo is a digital asset wealth manager with $8 billion in assets under management.

Timothy Misir, head of research, BRN, said that the next leg in bitcoin hinges on Friday’s inflation data and the Fed meeting to be held on April 28-29.

“Those two events will tell the market whether policymakers still think inflation is containable after the oil shock, or whether the war is extending the no-cuts regime,” Misir said in an email.

Long story short: There’s a wide gap between expert expectations and how traders are pricing Friday’s inflation data. Whether markets are right to shrug or the data proves pivotal, Friday will finally show which side has it right.

Key Takeaways

• PLTR shares declined approximately 6% following Michael Burry’s bubble warning
• The ‘Big Short’ investor argues Anthropic is capturing market share with ARR surging from $9B to $30B
• Palantir’s forward P/E ratio stands at roughly 115x versus a sector median of 21x
• Analyst opinions vary: Rosenblatt maintains $200 Buy; Benchmark expresses valuation worries
• Street consensus remains Moderate Buy with average target of $194.61

The legendary investor from “The Big Short,” Michael Burry, publicly challenged Palantir’s market position on Wednesday through a post on X, declaring the stock potentially overvalued while highlighting Anthropic’s growing dominance in enterprise artificial intelligence.

PLTR shares tumbled approximately 6% during regular trading hours following his remarks. After-hours activity showed some recovery as the stock climbed back toward $141.18 with renewed buying interest.

Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR

Burry previously revealed a short bet against Palantir in early 2025. His Wednesday commentary escalated his critique, focusing on fundamental shifts in the competitive environment.

“Anthropic is eating Palantir’s lunch,” Burry stated. “That massive boost from $9B to $30B ARR at Anthropic is because Anthropic offers the easier, cheaper, intuitive solution for businesses.”

His argument drew support from Ramp data, referencing a March 2026 study by economist Ara Kharazian. The analysis revealed that nearly 25% of Ramp’s business customers now subscribe to Anthropic services — a dramatic increase from just 4% twelve months earlier.

Burry further emphasized that Anthropic is capturing 73% of incremental enterprise AI expenditures, while the broader AI sector displays zero-sum characteristics, with OpenAI recording its steepest monthly user decline ever.

Premium Pricing Under Scrutiny

With a forward price-to-earnings multiple hovering around 115x, Palantir commands a significant premium over its sector median of 21x and towers above comparable large-cap AI competitors. This valuation disparity has consistently fueled bearish arguments.

Benchmark’s Yi Fu Lee maintains a neutral stance with a Hold rating. His position reflects concerns that current pricing assumes flawless operational performance, leaving limited room for growth deceleration.

Rosenblatt analyst John McPeake takes the opposing view. He stands by his Buy recommendation and $200 valuation target, highlighting forthcoming developments such as the “Golden Dome” missile defense initiative. McPeake projects Palantir’s involvement in this contract could drive billions in revenue through 2028.

Bank of America’s Mariana Perez also retains her Buy stance, characterizing the selloff as a temporary response to news flow. She emphasizes Palantir’s entrenched position within critical government data infrastructure as a sustainable competitive moat.

Wall Street Perspective

The current analyst consensus registers as Moderate Buy, comprising 14 Buy ratings, 5 Hold ratings, and 2 Sell ratings.

The mean price objective stands at $194.61 post-volatility, suggesting potential upside of approximately 38% from Wednesday’s closing price.

Palantir delivered 70% year-over-year revenue expansion in its latest quarterly results, a metric that bullish investors cite as validation of the company’s underlying business strength despite valuation controversies.

Burry isn’t the sole prominent skeptic. Short-seller Andrew Left revealed his own short position in Palantir last September, additionally highlighting Databricks as a superior alternative investment.

Since Anthropic remains privately held, investors lack direct mechanisms to capitalize on Burry’s competitive thesis — though the downward pressure on PLTR has proven tangible.

The official designation of the Maven Smart System represents one of the more concrete near-term positive catalysts currently on the horizon for shareholders.

TLDR:

• Yield promises no longer close RWA deals — investors now demand verified legal structures and default procedures first.
  
• Credibility built through clean repayment records outperforms any paid marketing campaign in the RWA sector today.
  
• Regulatory arbitrage across jurisdictions like Malaysia and Switzerland is becoming a core feature, not a legal workaround.
  
• Instant redemption and pre-funded liquidity layers are now the clearest signal that an RWA project is built to last.

RWA marketing is undergoing a fundamental shift across the crypto industry. Projects that once relied on yield promises are now held to a much higher standard.

Institutional and retail investors are demanding legal clarity, collateral transparency, and defined default procedures before committing capital.

The market drawdown of October 2025 accelerated this change considerably. As tokenized real-world assets attract more scrutiny, the strategies that worked a year ago are no longer enough to close deals.

Credibility and Structure Replace Yield as the Core Pitch

The days of leading with high APY figures are largely over in RWA marketing. Investors are now asking harder questions about legal structures, collateral custody, and enforcement rights.

Projects that answer those questions clearly are gaining the most traction. This shift reflects a broader maturation across the tokenized asset space.

@liqvid_xyz captured this directly: “You can’t sell trust with a story. You need structure, transparency, and execution.” That standard now applies to every project seeking serious capital.

Institutional allocators, in particular, are running thorough due diligence before committing. According to @RealFinOfficial, onboarding a bank or major asset originator can take six to eighteen months.

Credibility, meanwhile, has become the most valuable asset any project can hold. It cannot be purchased through advertising spend or influencer campaigns.

Instead, it is built month by month through clean repayment records and verifiable history. @eightlends has reported zero defaults since launch — a fact that speaks louder than any marketing pitch.

Regulatory arbitrage is also playing a quiet but powerful role. Projects are selecting jurisdictions like Malaysia, the Philippines, and Switzerland to structure their offerings legally.

@metafyed noted they operate under Malaysian and Philippine frameworks. However, explaining that regulatory strategy to buyers remains an ongoing challenge, with most drop-off occurring at that educational moment.

Liquidity and Education Remain the Two Biggest Growth Levers

Beyond structure, liquidity is fast becoming the defining feature of competitive RWA projects. Most tokenized assets still carry TradFi-style redemption timelines, sometimes taking hours or days to settle.

That friction limits the appeal to both retail and institutional participants. Smart projects are now building pre-funded liquidity layers and instant redemption mechanisms to close that gap.

@AmpleProtocol made clear that narrative alone is not enough today. “Everyone is looking for a combination of tokenomics plus Product Market Fit with most projects right now,” they stated.

Without a functional product behind the story, even a well-structured narrative loses credibility fast. Liquidity, in that context, is proof of execution.

Education remains one of the most consistent barriers to growth in this sector. Many crypto users are unfamiliar with SPV structures, collateral agents, and enforcement rights. @eightlends noted that growing in RWA is really about education more than anything else.

Walking users through the full process — from borrower verification to onchain monthly payments — is what converts interest into investment.

The three main audiences — institutional allocators, high-net-worth investors, and wealth managers — each require a tailored approach. Wealth managers particularly need cross-border yield products that clear compliance hurdles for their clients.

Serving these intermediaries well creates leverage across the entire distribution chain. That approach, paired with transparent structure, separates the projects that scale from those that stall.

For several weeks, the oil market remained directly influenced by the US-Iran tensions. Threats to close the Strait of Hormuz kept Brent prices within the $97–110 range. Overnight on 8 April, the parties announced a two-week ceasefire, and the Strait of Hormuz reopened to shipping, immediately removing the accumulated geopolitical premium from prices. Brent declined by over 10%, falling towards the $92 per barrel level.

However, later the same day, the ceasefire came under pressure. Gulf states reported Iranian drone and missile strikes, with the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain confirming attacks on oil facilities and infrastructure. Iran subsequently suspended vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz, citing a breach of the agreement by Israel, which had conducted strikes in Lebanon. Israel clarified that the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon.

Negotiations are scheduled for 10 April in Islamabad, although the outcome remains uncertain. The market continues to show high sensitivity to any changes in diplomatic or military rhetoric. In parallel, OPEC+ approved an increase in oil production quotas on Sunday, adding further supply-side pressure.

Technical Picture

On the daily chart, the prolonged consolidation within the $60–75 range concluded with an impulsive rally towards $115, driven by geopolitical escalation in February–March 2026. Notably, on 18 March, vertical volume recorded a peak spike, confirming the climactic nature of the move.

The market failed to sustain these elevated levels, and the subsequent correction pushed prices down to $89, where the price approached the lower boundary of a horizontal volume cluster. Above current levels, the market profile remains dense, with the highest concentration of trading activity (POC) located in the $101–103 range. This area could serve as the nearest upside reference, with a breakout requiring significant buyer participation. The next resistance level could be $109.

For sellers, the key support level could be $89. A break below this level aligns with the base of the previous session and may influence short-term bearish positioning.

The RSI with Moving Averages (nominal) indicator presents a similarly notable picture. The RSI has remained below both moving averages for the past 10 days, with both MAs trending downward. This signals a weakening bullish impulse and a shift towards a neutral-to-bearish oscillator configuration.

Key Takeaways

Brent prices corrected sharply following the removal of the geopolitical premium and increased supply pressure from OPEC+. From a technical perspective, the price remains below the POC zone, while the RSI+MA configuration reflects a bearish context. The key range levels—89 and 109—could be reference points for the upcoming session.

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US Federal Reserve members were split on whether the war in the Middle East could spur further interest rate cuts before the end of 2026, according to minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) March meeting.

On Wednesday, the Fed released minutes from its last FOMC meeting on March 17 and 18. The meeting ended with an 11-1 vote to keep rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, with many officials cautious about the potential impacts of war and what it could mean for the economy.

Amid a risk of further conflicts, the official consensus pointed to a potential rate cut this year, but as Fed officials noted in the minutes, only if inflation does not get out of control.

“Many participants judged that, in time, it would likely become appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations,” according to the Fed minutes.

Rate cuts are generally seen as a positive catalyst for crypto as they free up investment liquidity and can spur demand for speculative investments. The last interest rate cut was Dec. 10, 2025, with the Fed slashing rates by 25 basis points.

While a cut may still be on the table for this year, the general feeling from the FOMC meeting was that it was “too early to know how developments in the Middle East would affect the U.S. economy.”

The FOMC’s next meeting is scheduled for April 28-29.

Cuts still possible, but so are hikes

While some officials were cautiously optimistic about a rate cut, others warned that the opposite might be necessary.

“Some participants judged that there was a strong case for a two-sided description of the Committee’s future interest rate decisions … reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation were to remain at above-target levels.”

Related: Iran weighing crypto tolls for ships using Strait of Hormuz: Report

Inflation was not the only concern, as many officials pointed to potential downside risks in the labor market, arguing that “in the current situation of low rates of net job creation, labor market conditions appeared vulnerable to adverse shocks.”

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there is currently a 75.6% chance that the Fed will keep rates at 3.5% to 3.75% during the Fed’s Dec. 8 meeting later this year. 

Meanwhile, the chance of a rate cut is 20.4%, while the chance of a rate hike is 2.4% at the time of writing.

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