Crypto World
How Investigators Track Coldcard Hack Losses and Stolen Bitcoin
Crypto investigators are grappling with one of the toughest loss-allocation problems in digital asset security: estimating theft from self-custody wallets, where there is no authoritative registry of affected users. The ongoing analysis of the Coldcard-related hack is now producing markedly different figures depending on how teams treat “confirmed” victim reports versus on-chain attributions.
Blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant currently puts confirmed losses at 1,432 Bitcoin, while Galaxy Research and TRM Labs argue the broader toll is higher when tracing suggests additional victims across multiple waves. The discrepancy highlights why hardware-wallet exploits can be hard to quantify—and why investors and security watchers should treat any single number as provisional.
Key takeaways
- CryptoQuant reports 1,432 BTC as a confirmed floor, relying on victim-provided evidence before labeling funds stolen.
- Galaxy Research says it has high-confidence minimum losses of 1,730 BTC, using victim reports to validate wider attack patterns.
- TRM Labs estimates attackers drained roughly 1,816 BTC across 5,200+ addresses in four waves, with the figure expected to keep rising before stabilizing.
- All parties underscore that there is no complete list of affected self-custody accounts, so totals can only be inferred—not definitively counted.
Why Coldcard thefts are difficult to total
Self-custody incidents differ sharply from exchange hacks, where investigators can often begin with a centralized list of compromised accounts or balances. In the Coldcard case, analytics teams instead have to assemble estimates from scattered disclosures—wallet addresses and transaction identifiers shared by victims—then map those to on-chain behavior consistent with the attack.
That structure creates two competing measurement philosophies. One is conservative: count only losses that victims directly confirm, to avoid “false positives” from pattern matching. The other is investigative: use confirmed losses to identify additional wallet clusters and transactions that likely belong to other victims, even when those victims have not yet come forward publicly.
The result is a widening gap between “confirmed” and “attributed” totals—exactly the gap that matters for incident reporting, accountability, and the credibility of downstream security narratives.
Galaxy narrows a moving minimum—backed by victim corroboration
Galaxy’s approach, as explained to Cointelegraph by Alex Thorn, treats early totals as tentative until victim disclosures can corroborate suspected victims and linked on-chain activity. Thorn previously described Galaxy’s earlier estimate—up to 1,816 BTC—as a potential figure rather than a finalized tally.
By Tuesday, Galaxy reported a high-confidence minimum of 1,730 BTC. Thorn also indicated that the minimum could still increase as more victim reports align with the attack’s observed patterns.
In Thorn’s description, the key distinction is between (1) losses directly supported by victim-reported information and (2) additional losses identified through the broader pattern those reports help validate. Galaxy said it has directly confirmed 450+ BTC from victim reports, while those reports have helped uncover other victims in a wider set totaling more than 730 BTC. At the same time, Galaxy said it is still holding back BTC it suspects but cannot yet verify with sufficient corroboration.
For readers, this methodology matters because it suggests a “floor that can rise” dynamic: as the public dataset of victim evidence grows, the subset that analysts can confidently label as theft expands, improving the stability of the totals.
TRM Labs: broader tracing across multiple waves
TRM Labs told Cointelegraph that its independent tracing lands in the same general range as Galaxy. In its more detailed analysis, TRM said its work estimated that attackers drained about 1,816 BTC from more than 5,200 addresses across four waves.
TRM’s Ari Redbord, global head of policy, cautioned that investigators should expect estimates to keep moving upward before settling. That framing aligns with the reality that self-custody victims may take time to discover compromise, identify relevant addresses, and disclose the information needed for analysts to match on-chain traces.
TRM’s results also underline why the same incident can generate different “totals” depending on whether analysts use strict victim confirmations or extend attribution to clusters and transactions that look consistent with the exploit.
CryptoQuant uses victim evidence to avoid inflated claims
CryptoQuant takes a more restrictive stance. According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno said the company begins with public reports from victims—including wallet addresses or transaction IDs—then checks those disclosures against known on-chain patterns associated with the Coldcard attack.
With that workflow, CryptoQuant’s current confirmed tally is 1,432 BTC, which Moreno described as a floor that may increase if additional victims publicly reveal the hacked addresses.
Moreno emphasized that CryptoQuant avoids treating on-chain pattern matching alone as a basis for identifying victims, because doing so could produce false positives and inflate the estimate. In his explanation, the fundamental issue is that the stolen Bitcoin belongs to individuals rather than a single centralized entity (like an exchange) that can provide consolidated incident data. As a result, analysts can only confirm what victims disclose.
“Knowing the total BTC stolen is difficult, and it will always be an estimation.”
CryptoQuant’s stance is a reminder that, in self-custody incidents, analytical precision is constrained by data availability. The most cautious number may not reflect the full damage—but it can be the most defensible as “confirmed” while the case is still unfolding.
What others are (and aren’t) tallying
Cointelegraph also reported that Chainalysis has not conducted an independent loss tally. Separately, blockchain investigator ZachXBT publicly stated he has no plans to monitor or trace the incident.
While the absence of a consensus total could frustrate observers seeking a single figure, it also signals that the ecosystem is converging on a shared understanding: without complete victim registries, analysts must balance completeness against verification.
For now, the main thing to watch is whether the announced figures stabilize as more victims submit corroborating wallet data. If disclosures accelerate, the “confirmed” floor should rise and estimates may converge—otherwise the spread between conservative and attributed totals may remain a persistent feature of how self-custody hacks are measured.
Trading platform eToro plans to acquire US online brokerage TradeZero as part of its US expansion plans, the company announced Tuesday.
In its second-quarter report, eToro reported $1.59 billion in revenue, down from $2 billion in the comparable 2025 period. Of that, $1.34 billion was revenue from crypto assets, down about 30% from $1.9 billion in Q2 of 2025. However, eToro reported $1.35 billion in crypto-related cost of revenue and $19.7 million in net income from crypto assets. Total net income was $53.4 million.
Equities and commodities-related trading generated $141 million in net income for the platform.
The company has been expanding into digital assets as part of its plans to become a multi-asset platform. In April, it announced plans to acquire self-custodial wallet provider Zengo.
“More than 60% of users who traded commodities during Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 subsequently traded equities in Q2 2026, and nearly nine in ten of those users have also traded crypto on eToro,” said Meron Shani, the chief financial officer at eToro.
Total cryptocurrency trades on the platform fell to 1.4 million in July, marking a 73% decline year-on-year. The invested amount was down 50%.
TradeZero generated about $80 million of revenue with 81% gross margins in the last 12 months ended June 30, 2026. EToro expects the deal to be accretive to adjusted earnings per share in the first year after closing, which is expected in the first half of 2026.
The Nasdaq-traded ETOR shares were down more than 5% in pre-market activity on Tuesday, poised to extend Monday’s decline, according to Yahoo Finance data.
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Crypto World
Crypto-friendly bank Erebor in talks for $1.5 billion fundraise at $9.5 billion valuation: FT
Tech-oriented lender Erebor Bank is in advanced talks to raise about $1.5 billion in a deal that would value the year-old firm at about $9.5 billion, the Financial Times reported.
Lux Capital, Human Capital, Valor Equity Partners, Andreessen Horowitz and SV Angel are expected to make large commitments in the fundraising round. Existing investors including 8VC and Haun Ventures are also set to take part, according to the report, which cited people familiar with the matter.
The fundraising comes as Erebor expands its deposit base and starts lending activity. Deposits reached $4.6 billion by the end of July, up from $1.1 billion at the end of March, the FT said.
Erebor targets companies working in crypto, artificial intelligence, defense and manufacturing. It also serves payment companies, investment funds and trading firms and its planned services include deposits, credit, stablecoin products, treasury management and payments.
The bank received final U.S. approval to operate in February. Regulators require it to maintain a leverage ratio of at least 12% during its first three years, making the fresh capital important as its balance sheet grows.
Cole Villemain (aka “ColeThereum”), the Pudgy Penguins co-founder who left the project after allegations of misusing its treasury, is selling NFTs again.
On Sunday, the controversial founder previewed his new collection launching on Robinhood Chain to over half a million views.
That attention was split among those celebrating Cole’s return and an equally-sized population who remembers the disappointing crypto projects from his past.
Villemain faced allegations of treasury misuse at Pudgy Penguins, and he had plenty of earlier controversies. In August 2021, for example, blockchain sleuth ZachXBT profiled one of his pre-crypto ventures, a dropshipping site called eBoy Outlet.
That store’s online reviews, according to ZachXBT, were “filled with instances of customers not receiving orders, refunds, or responses from support.”
Villemain denied wrongdoing and claimed to have refunded customers who failed to receive the merchandise they ordered.
He also founded My Fucking Pickle, another NFT collection that crashed within weeks of his creation. “Have to love cash grab projects,” ZachXBT wrote.
The floor price of those NFTs is now $13, down 98% from their June 27, 2021 high above $540.
Villemain’s new Robinhood Chain collection seems to be themed around fantasy videogames, although details are sparse on its splash homepage. No NFTs are mintable, and Villemain cautioned, “No contract or site is live yet.”
Rather than Ethereum, Villemain chose a new blockchain by the Robinhood brokerage.
That venue is already problematic. Robinhood Chain failed to focus on its original mission of real world asset tokenization, per the CEO’s own admission, as memecoins overran the blockchain instead.
Robinhood pitched its blockchain, which launched on July 1, as a home for tokenized stocks and US Treasuries. Protos documented wallet drainers, phishing pages, rug-pulls, and collapsing memecoins proliferating across Robinhood Chain during early July.
Villemain’s X bio offers his own disclosure, “All tweets are sarcasm or theatrics and not financial advice.”
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Nostalgia for NFTs and their -98% returns
Nostalgia seems to be Villemain’s entire sales pitch. He described his own marketing plan as “running back one of the oldest tricks in the book of 2021 NFT projects,” and declared himself “delusional enough to believe I can drop the #1 NFT on Robinhood Chain.”
Not everyone is feeling wistful. “The space never changes,” posted one developer.
“Same guy who did early meme NFT cash grabs, co-founded Pudgy Penguins, then got kicked out after treasury-drain accusations is now launching a new NFT project on Robinhood Chain. Half of Crypto Twitter is acting like none of that ever happened.”
Another X user predicted a repeat disappointment, “This is not the first time he’s launched something and rug pulled it using his luck with PP as a cosign for legitimacy.”
“He disappeared long enough for you and many to have no clue who he is,” one skeptic posted, “Only to come back and do the same thing.”
Indeed, NFT trading volumes declined 97% by 2022 and many NFTs declined 98%, including once-six-figure NFTs that crashed 99%.
On January 5, 2022, an investor alleged Pudgy Penguins founders drained the project’s ETH. The next day, NFT holders voted the founders out through a community vote in the project’s Discord.
Villemain announced a January break from X to focus on “mental health.” By April 2022, the remaining leaders had sold Pudgy Penguins to a group led by Los Angeles entrepreneur Luca Netz for 750 ETH, then about $2.5 million.
Netz turned the underperforming NFTs into physical penguin toys that have moved more than a million units through Walmart, Target, Walgreens, and other non-blockchain sales venues.
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Dubai-based maritime asset tokenization platform Shipfinex partnered with ADI Chain to tokenize a pipeline of around 35 vessels worth $500 million, as it looks to open new financing channels for shipowners.
According to the company, the vessels will be placed in separate special-purpose vehicles, with the resulting tokens potentially representing vessel-backed credit, charter-linked income or other economic interests in individual ships.
ADI Chain, an Abu Dhabi-based blockchain focused on stablecoins and real-world assets, will provide the distribution and settlement infrastructure. Primary allocations and distributions are expected to use UAE dirham-, US dollar- and other currency-denominated stablecoins.
The planned tokenization represents a small share of the broader shipping market. The world fleet and orderbook were valued at about $2.1 trillion at the start of 2026, according to Clarksons Research data.
The partnership is still in the pilot and operational-readiness stage, with no Maritime Asset Tokens publicly issued and the regulated issuance route still being finalized.
The deal comes as the market for tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) continues to grow. Assets tracked by RWA.xyz totaled about $38.1 billion as of Aug. 9, led by $16.2 billion in US Treasury debt and $4.9 billion in commodities.
In a report released Monday, Standard Chartered forecast that tokenized RWAs could reach $4 trillion by the end of 2028, according to Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital asset research.
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“I voted against the GENIUS and Clarity acts because they fail to adequately address abuse and instead open the door to corruption,” she said last year. “At a time when the current occupant of the Oval Office is personally benefiting from crypto and memecoin ventures, these bills do nothing to close conflict-of-interest loopholes.”
But if Waters and Brown are running the crypto show in the House, the White House will still have its same occupant. Even if the Democrats win a stronger majority than the narrow GOP advantage of the past two years, the next session could become a mess of go-nowhere, message-sending bills. If the party won the Senate majority, too, that wouldn’t help assure Democrats an ability to get legislation converted to law.
On the Senate side, Senator Warren has been among the crypto industry’s most prominent Capitol Hill detractors, trying to keep a steady spotlight on what she’s portrayed as the president’s crypto corruption. However, under her time as the ranking Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, she watched her fellow Democrats go against her on crypto matters, gathering for negotiations on the legislation she opposed.
She may have more sway were she to lead the committee and control the advancement of her members’ bills. If she were to follow in the footsteps of the most recent Democrat who ran the banking panel, former Senator Sherrod Brown, she could go for years without allowing a crypto measure through the gate. (Brown, who was defeated by Republican crypto advocate Senator Bernie Moreno two years ago with the help of a massive $40 million crypto PAC boost, is also running again for the other Ohio Senate seat.)
Bitcoin (BTC) whales and spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are absorbing supply, yet on-chain data shows the wider recovery still lacks depth.
Strong accumulation now sits against weak network activity and thinning liquidity, suggesting the market has not yet moved from a fragile bounce to a durable trend.
The Accumulation Case Looks Strong
CryptoQuant data show that addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC accumulated 46,420 BTC over a 60-day period through August 9. That reading is the highest since March 15 and nearly double the mid-March peak of 23,238 BTC.
Wallets holding 0.1 to 1 BTC reduced balances by roughly 9,700 BTC over the same period.
“This is a notable shift in positioning. The largest holders are increasing their exposure while smaller holders are reducing theirs,” an analyst wrote.
Santiment separately counted 90 wallets holding at least 10,000 BTC, a six-month high.
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Institutional demand also strengthened last week. Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew about $853.54 million in the week ending August 7. That was their best week since April 17, according to SoSoValue.
Why Bitcoin’s Recovery Still Looks Fragile
Nonetheless, the latest signals look softer. Spot Bitcoin ETFs reversed to a net outflow on Monday, an early sign that the inflow streak may be losing momentum.
Glassnode also reported that active addresses, transfer volume, and fee generation have drifted toward lower bounds. Profitability has improved only modestly, and realized losses still exceed realized profits on-chain.
The report describes the market as a transitional recovery that has yet to broaden into a full expansion.
“Improving institutional flows, stronger taker demand, and less defensive options positioning provide a constructive backdrop, but subdued spot liquidity and weak network activity suggest the recovery has yet to develop into a broad-based expansion,” the firm said.
Liquidity also remains thin. One CryptoQuant analyst noted monthly trading volume on Binance fell about 45% year-over-year in July, while OKX dropped roughly 57%. Shrinking depth lets modest flows swing prices sharply.
Another CryptoQuant analyst flagged a bearish top formation, with a downside target near $51,336, about 21% below current levels.
With US inflation data due this week, the coming sessions may show whether accumulation can pull the recovery wider.
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The post Bitcoin Whales Add 46,000 BTC but Weak Network Activity Clouds Recovery appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy has sold 6,948 BTC in 2026, raising $431.8 million as part of its BTC monetization program.
Saylor first announced in May that Strategy would soon start selling its BTC. Then in late June, the company revealed it would sell its accrued BTC as part of a monetization program to raise $1.25 billion for its USD reserve.
The money would be spent on preferred stock dividends, digital credit securities or Class A common stock.
Strategy’s K-8 filings reveal that its first sale of 32 BTC took place in late May. This sale made the firm $2.5 million while BTC was worth $77,135 at the time.
The company then sold:
- 1,363 BTC between June 29 and June 30
- 2,225 BTC between July 1 and July 5
- 1,638 BTC between July 27 and August 2
- 1,690 BTC between August 3 and August 9
This most recent sale is reflected in Strategy’s latest filing.
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These sales netted the firm $80.8 million, $135.2 million, $104.73 million, and $108.6 million, respectively. The price of BTC has fallen 13% since the selling began.
Before June 21, Strategy was mostly buying BTC, building up 163,554 BTC in 2026. These purchases cost the firm over $12.7 billion.
Strategy’s first BTC purchase was in August 2020, when it spent $250 million buying 21,454 BTC.
As of August 9, the company now holds 840,447 BTC, currently worth $53.82 billion.
It paid $63.36 billion for all this BTC, which means that it is down -$9.5 billion on its BTC investments.
Even with its $4.65 billion USD reserve included with its BTC horde, that’s still $4.9 billion less than it bought all the BTC for.
Read more: Every time Michael Saylor said he’d never sell bitcoin
Saylor’s pivot to offloading BTC was controversial among followers who believed him when he said he wouldn’t be selling.
Strategy had only ever sold BTC once back in 2022, before buying significantly more BTC two days later.
In February 2025, when BTC was above $84,000, Saylor famously said, “Sell a kidney if you must, but keep the BTC.”
The price of the asset has since fallen 24% to $64,042, while his advice was ultimately abandoned by his firm.
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A bank charter application changes what a token can become. Meta AI predicts XRP is mispriced against that backdrop at $1.01, and the price prediction reaches $7 to $9 by the end of 2027 with a stretch case of $12 to $15.
The regulatory foundation came first. Ripple settled its 5-year SEC case for $125M cash in August 2025 with both appeals dropped, confirming retail XRP sales are not securities.
Meta AI calls that the clearest regulatory status in U.S. crypto. Six spot XRP ETF filings followed, with analysts forecasting $5B to $8B in first-year inflows.
Early ETF products are already seeing net inflows. That is the institutional on-ramp the thesis depends on.
The banking layer is more ambitious. Ripple is applying for a U.S. national bank charter and a Fed Master Account to hold RLUSD reserves directly at the Fed.
RLUSD is backed by BNY Mellon and built for ISO 20022 compliant settlement. Expansion into Japan with SBI Holdings arrives by early 2026.
The Rail and Hidden Road acquisitions build a bank-grade stack around it. RLUSD becomes the settlement stablecoin while XRP remains native liquidity on the ledger.
The bear case is a matter of timing. If ETF flows underwhelm and the market trades sideways into 2026 pending catalysts, XRP grinds between $1.50 and $2.50, with regulatory clarity priced but not monetized.
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The chart offers no support for any of this yet. XRP traded above $3.30 last August and has fallen consistently since. October brought a sharp drop toward $2.40. February broke $1.80 and carried price down near $1.15.
Spring built a range between $1.30 and $1.55. June ended it, and the decline has not paused since. July and August have produced a slow bleed lower. Price now sits at the lowest level anywhere on this chart.
The close reads $1.02208, down 0.69% and $0.00709 on the day. The session ranged from $1.01505 to $1.04020. Support sits at $1.01, then $1.00 as the psychological floor beneath it. Resistance appears at $1.10, then $1.20 and $1.40.
RSI reads 37.09 with its signal line above at 41.54. The oscillator trails by roughly 4.5 points, which confirms sellers still hold the market.
That reading sits near oversold territory without entering it. Momentum is weak and pointed downward.
Meta AI is describing infrastructure being assembled while price ignores it. Reclaiming $1.10 would be the first small sign that gap is starting to close.
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The post Mark Zuckerberg Meta AI Predicts XRP Could Be the Story of 2027 appeared first on Cryptonews.
Everpure (P) stock jumped in early trading Tuesday on news that the data storage company has landed its second “design win” with a top-five cloud hyperscaler. The rally is extending a recent break out for Everpure, which has climbed 46% year-to-date. Everpure — recently rebranded from the name Pure Storage — announced the design win and supply agreement in a…
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Bitcoin Knots said on August 11 that it plans to choose a new proof-of-work algorithm for the stalled BIP-110 chain after the minority fork produced only two blocks.
The move sets up another confrontation over Bitcoin’s block policy, while the main network continues producing blocks normally.
Knots Pushes New Algorithm as the Fork Stalls
Knots told users not to downgrade or switch to software that weakens Bitcoin’s consensus rules, warning that doing so could expose them to false confirmations from invalid blocks.
Anyone who had already switched was told to upgrade to the latest Knots client, which the project said would attempt to repair the chain state automatically, and miners restarting nodes were told to add the line maxtipage=2592000 to their configuration file.
It also said a new proof-of-work algorithm would be selected at 14:00 UTC on August 11 through a deterministic random process among proposed candidates. A hash was posted alongside the algorithm announcement as what Knots called a proof of fairness for the random selection process.
The announcement came after the BIP-110 chain stopped at block 961,633, as had been reported by CryptoPotato.
“The Bitcoin network is under attack, and block production has slowed significantly,” wrote the Knots team. “The community is preparing mitigations to resolve the situation.”
However, a community note attached to the post pointed out that the main Bitcoin chain had continued normally. It described the reported “attack” and slowdown as affecting only the minority BIP-110 fork, which split at block 961,632 with roughly 2.5% support.
The episode has also exposed a sharp disagreement over what constitutes Bitcoin consensus. In a Sunday post, Adam Back argued that BIP-110 lacked sufficient consensus and that economic users and the market had effectively ignored the fork.
Luke Dashjr takes the opposite view. He wrote that BIP-110 has community support and argued that a proof-of-work change could remove the miners he considers responsible for attacking the fork. He later said, “There’s only one Bitcoin chain, and it just activated BIP110.”
The developer has also reportedly been removed as an editor of Bitcoin’s formal improvement proposal repository this week over what was described as a conflict of interest in how he handled the proposal.
Miners and Developers Remain Split
The mining pool Roughnecks, which had been producing blocks on the BIP-110 branch, announced early Saturday that it was pausing operations, calling the pause an escalation rather than a retreat. By Sunday, it reversed course, saying it would resume mining “ASAP” on the stalled chain tip using software it referred to as Knots-RDTS, adding, “We’re wildcatting again.”
Trey Sellers, a Bitcoin holder active in the replies, questioned the economics of that decision, noting that block rewards need 100 confirmations to mature and the fork was producing at most one block a day. Roughnecks responded that it doesn’t give financial advice and that participants should expect the possibility of no return at all.
By the time Roughnecks posted its Sunday update, the main Bitcoin chain had already reached block 961,865, and later tracking put the gap even wider, with one monitor showing the standard chain at 961,980 against a BIP-110 branch still stuck at 961,633.
Bitcoin’s price barely reacted to any of the drama and was trading around $64,000 at the time of writing, down just over 1% in 24 hours and about 47% below its level a year ago, after twice failing to hold above $65,400 in recent sessions.
The post Bitcoin Knots Plans New Proof-of-Work Algorithm After BIP-110 Enforcement Fails appeared first on CryptoPotato.
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