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How Trump’s Middle East Escalation Impacts His Political Future

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AIPAC's annual lobbying totals since 1998. Source: OpenSecrets.

Israel and the United States have launched a joint attack on Iran, one that has an unclear expiry date and that has already caused reverberations across the rest of the Middle East. Though Israel’s intentions are clear, those of the United States are not.

In a conversation with Steve Hanke, former Reagan advisor and economics professor at Johns Hopkins University, the consequences for US President Donald Trump are risky, potentially costing him his Make America Great Again voter base.

Trump’s Unclear Motives in the Middle East

If America’s founding fathers were alive today, they would look at the situation that unfolded over the weekend and shake their heads. 

During the 18th century, Benjamin Franklin laid out his belief regarding conflict and trade with the quote, “the system of America is universal commerce with all nations, and war with none.” Thomas Jefferson reinforced this vision of foreign policy through his own quote: “Peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations—entangling alliances with none.”

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Today, quite the opposite vision is being carried out. Aware of Israel’s planned strike against Iran’s capital, the United States joined in preemptively

“It was abundantly clear that if Iran came under attack by anyone – the United States or Israel, or anyone – they were going to respond, and respond against the United States,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in a recent interview in Washington. 

For Hanke, Israel’s intentions were also abundantly clear: to expand its influence across the Middle East. When it came to the United States, concrete reasons were harder to find. Hanke attributed this to Trump’s already unpredictable policymaking in other areas of his presidency. 

“We don’t exactly know what the thinking of the president of the United States is because he changes his mind a lot,” Hanke told BeInCrypto in a recent interview held on X Spaces. 

What’s more apparent, however, is Israel’s grip on Washington.

Israel’s Growing Influence Over US Policymaking

Israel-US relations can be best exemplified by the extensive lobbying efforts of certain political action committees (PACs), such as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), during US election cycles. 

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AIPAC's annual lobbying totals since 1998. Source: OpenSecrets.
AIPAC’s annual lobbying totals since 1998. Source: OpenSecrets.

According to the nonpartisan research group OpenSecrets, AIPAC spent over $42 million on bipartisan contributions during the 2024 federal elections. In 2025, the committee spent $3.76 million on lobbying efforts. This figure marked the highest single-year spending to date. 

“The lobby has an enormous influence on what goes on with regard to foreign policy that’s taken by the United States in the Middle East,” Hanke explained.  

Beyond the increasingly entangled alliances between the United States and Israel, Trump may be using this latest attack on Iran as a distraction from certain unfolding events happening back home.

Trump’s Antiwar Image Begins to Fade

Trump jump-started 2026 with a series of controversial decisions. Three days into the new year, the United States captured and extradited Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Less than a month later, the president launched an aggressive campaign to acquire Greenland, sparking direct conflict with European allies. 

These two decisions came amid a broader backdrop of constant tariff threats. At the same time, the Department of Justice released its latest batch of Epstein files

This has placed the president at the center of a debate over his ties to billionaire socialite Epstein and his knowledge of the sex trafficking charges Epstein faced in 2019.

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“The Jeffrey Epstein case is not going away— it’s still all over the press,” Hanke said, adding, “It’s an exit ramp from declining poll numbers. The best way to stay in power is to start a war… that’s a pretty big distraction.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s actions could pose a significant challenge to the future strength of his political power. One of Trump’s central promises on his campaign trail was to end ongoing wars, going so far as to declare himself the “president of peace.” 

This narrative has begun to unravel. 

“I think politically, he’s playing a very risky hand of cards with his base… his popularity is deteriorating rapidly in the United States because of his interventionist and threatening positions,” Hanke said. “Whether he’s going to be able to wind up [the Middle East conflict] in a short period of time… we don’t know.” 

The next indicator of the president’s current popularity will be the November midterm elections, which will determine whether the Republican Party can maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

Though Trump’s foreign policy decisions may have significant domestic political repercussions, their impact on the global economy, especially oil prices, seems more limited than expected.

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Iran Conflict Fails to Disrupt Oil, China Keeps Balance

Contrary to popular belief, Hanke does not believe that the war on Iran will catastrophically affect oil prices in the US.

In the 20th century, disruptions in oil production had a larger impact on global economies. However, today, the US has increased its oil production, while Iran and the Gulf have seen a decrease in theirs. 

Hanke noted that, since events unfolded over the weekend, the price of American oil has risen by only about $10 per barrel, translating into a 25-cent-per-gallon increase.

“What’s happening today is a kind of modest reaction,” Hanke said, adding, “The oil intensity has gone way down. Even as the price goes up, it’s not going to be as large an impact on GDP as was the case in 1978.”

Trump’s efforts to disrupt oil supply to China through his interventions in both Venezuela and Iran may not achieve the intended result against the United States’ main rival. Hanke argued that even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, China’s strategic advantages must not be overlooked. 

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While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries [OPEC] has oil, China has rare-earth minerals. 

“If the US was wanting to play this game and cut off the Venezuelan oil and the exit of the Strait of Hormuz, believe me, the Chinese know how to play hardball,” he explained. “They would cut the rare earths off, and that would be the end. Within six months, Western economies would be in really bad shape.”

As the situation in the Middle East continues to unfold, the true impact of these geopolitical moves on global stability and US politics remains to be seen. The next few months will reveal whether Trump’s foreign policy gambles will strengthen or further erode his political standing.

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Wirex launches Wirex Agents

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Wirex launches Wirex Agents

Wirex, a leading stablecoin card issuer and principal member of Visa and Mastercard serving 7+ million users globally, today announced Wirex Agents – a non-custodial infrastructure layer enabling AI agents to create stablecoin cards, open virtual accounts, and execute autonomous financial transactions directly onchain.

AI is already managing workflows like subscription operations, payout routing, and cost settlement, but execution still often stops at the payment step. Wirex Agents closes that gap by enabling AI-driven transactions on stablecoin rails without requiring the agent to take custody of funds.

Wirex Agents is available now for developers and partners building agentic commerce, AI-native financial workflows, and programmable money movement. Learn more: https://wirexapp.com/agents

Pavel Matveev, Co-Founder of Wirex, said: “We believe the next wave of financial innovation will not be driven by apps, but by autonomous systems. Wirex Agents provides the infrastructure AI needs to store value, issue cards, and transact globally, without custody risk and without friction. The agent economy requires real payment rails, not experimental tooling. With Wirex BaaS, we’re delivering production-grade infrastructure designed for both humans and machines.”

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Built for machine-native transactions on Wirex BaaS

Wirex Agents is powered by Wirex BaaS, Wirex’s non-custodial stablecoin payment layer designed for programmable finance and machine-native transactions. Through Wirex’s regulated connectivity while preserving non-custodial architecture, AI agents can access:

  • Stablecoin-powered Visa cards
  • Stablecoin virtual bank accounts
  • Push-to-card payments
  • Cross-border transfers
  • Cashback-as-a-service infrastructure

This launch builds on payment rails Wirex already operates at scale, reflecting the operational maturity required for real-world settlement and card-linked money movement. Wirex’s onchain payment volume exceeds $840M annualised, transparently trackable at: https://paymentscan.xyz/issuers/wirex

MCP server and reusable agent skills for developers

As part of the release, Wirex is launching two components designed to make financial execution practical inside modern agent workflows:

1.      MCP server (Machine Commerce Protocol)

A server layer enabling AI systems to interact directly with Wirex payment rails for stablecoin card issuance, payouts, and treasury automation.

2.      Agent skills

Reusable payment capabilities that can be integrated across agent clients and frameworks, including Claude Code and other agent toolchains, so teams can add real execution without building proprietary payment infrastructure.

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Technical documentation: https://docs.wirexapp.com/docs/agent-skills

What Wirex Agents enables

The agent economy represents a shift where AI systems manage subscriptions, settle compute costs, execute arbitrage, pay vendors, and run treasury operations autonomously.

Wirex Agents is designed to support those workflows through:

  • Non-custodial stablecoin infrastructure
  • Direct Visa payment rails
  • Global settlement via ACH, SEPA, FPS, SWIFT, and push-to-card
  • 1:1 stablecoin conversion with zero spreads
  • Merchant acceptance at 80M+ locations
  • By combining card issuance, banking connectivity, and programmable payments, Wirex is positioning stablecoins as usable machine-native money, built for real-world commerce, not just onchain transfers.

Learn more: https://wirexapp.com/agents
Developers: https://www.wirexapp.com/developers

About Wirex

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Wirex is a global payments platform serving both consumers and businesses, offering card-based payment products alongside card issuance and banking infrastructure for partners. For end users, Wirex provides payment cards and banking features designed for everyday spending. For businesses, Wirex offers Banking-as-a-Service APIs, card issuance, and payment rails that enable digital platforms to launch compliant, globally accepted card programs. Trusted by over 7 million users since 2014, Wirex has processed $20 billion+ in transactions across 130 countries. As a principal Visa and Mastercard member, it makes crypto spendable anywhere — instantly and effortlessly.

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Trump Family-backed American Bitcoin (ABTC) expands mining fleet 12% as rivals pivot toward AI

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Eric Trump reitrates claim bitcoin (BTC) is just getting started on its road to $1 million

As many publicly traded bitcoin miners shift their business plans and capital into AI infrastructure, the Trump family-backed American Bitcoin (ABTC) is doubling down on BTC mining.

The company announced Tuesday the purchase of 11,298 ASIC miners, a move that it said will increase its mining capacity by approximately 12%.

Read more: End of bitcoin ‘HODL’: public miners going all-in on AI, signaling more BTC selling

The miners are scheduled for delivery and deployment in March 2026 at its Drumheller site, located in Alberta, Canada.

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Based on current network data, the added 3.05 EH/s would account for about 0.3% of global hashrate. That share could produce roughly 42 bitcoin per month, or about 515 bitcoin per year. At a bitcoin price near $68,000, that equals around $2.9 million in monthly gross revenue and about $35 million annually, before power costs, fees and difficulty changes.

“As bitcoin matures, the priority is clear: grow an American-owned, professionally operated hashrate,” said Eric Trump, co-founder and chief strategy officer at American Bitcoin. “That’s how we protect the network, drive innovation, and lead the future of bitcoin in America.”

ABTC shares are lower by 2.6% to $0.99 in Tuesday trading.

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What’s at Stake for Crypto as Three US States Kick off Party Primaries?

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What's at Stake for Crypto as Three US States Kick off Party Primaries?

Voters in North Carolina, Texas and Arkansas will decide on some of the first candidates for the 2026 midterm elections in the United States as primary season kicks off, potentially influencing the future of Congress and crypto legislation.

In Texas, Democratic Representative Jasmine Crockett is running for Republican John Cornyn’s US Senate seat for Texas. Crockett, a member of the House of Representatives since 2023, voted for the stablecoin payments bill GENIUS Act in July and FIT21, the previous version of the digital asset market structure bill before the CLARITY Act, which she voted against.