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How Whales and Retail Investors Are Reacting

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Bitcoin Investor Behavior. Source: Santiment


Here’s who has been buying and who has been selling throughout BTC’s most recent retracement.

Bitcoin’s price movements since early October can safely be categorized as bearish, given the fact that the asset shed over 50% of its value from its all-time high to its multi-year low of $60,000 marked on February 6.

Although it has recovered some ground since then, the cryptocurrency is deep in the red even on a year-to-date scale. Santiment investigated which investor group sold off during the months-long correction, and which increased their positions.

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Who’s Selling and Buying?

The post from the analytics company reveals an interesting pattern. It reads that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 bitcoins have reduced their positions by 0.8% since the October peak. In contrast, micro investors, those with 0.1 BTC or less, have increased their holdings by 2.5% within the same timeframe.

The analysis reads that this behavior from both groups does not suggest an upcoming price reversal.

“Optimally, we begin to see these two Bitcoin groups begin to reverse course. Without key stakeholder support, any spark of a rally will tend to be slightly limited due to the lack of large capital,” Santiment said, before indicating that retail investors have remained undeterred, currently holding the highest amount in nearly two years.

Bitcoin Investor Behavior. Source: Santiment
Bitcoin Investor Behavior. Source: Santiment

ETF Investors Flock

Unlike the small discrepancy between the two investor groups examined by Santiment, those who gain exposure to the largest cryptocurrency through ETFs have shown a clear and painful trend. In the two weeks leading to the asset’s all-time high of over $126,000, they poured in over $6 billion into the funds.

Since then, red has dominated almost every week, with multiple $1 billion or more net outflow examples. In three consecutive weeks in early November, they withdrew more than $3.5 billion. This behavior continued into the new year, and the spot Bitcoin ETFs are currently on a massive red streak of five weeks in a row in the red.

Data from SoSoValue shows that these investors pulled out $1.33 billion during the week that ended on January 23. Another $1.49 billion followed, but the silver lining is that the net inflows have decreased to under $360 million in the past three weeks. Nevertheless, the total net inflows into the spot BTC ETFs have declined from $62.77 billion in early October to $54 billion last Friday.

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Spot Bitcoin ETFs Net Flows. Source: SoSoValue
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Net Flows. Source: SoSoValue

 

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Crypto World

BTC Price Analysis All But Guarantees Bitcoin Higher by Early 2027

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BTC Price Analysis All But Guarantees Bitcoin Higher by Early 2027

Bitcoin past performance gave 88% odds of higher prices by early 2027, the latest in a series of new bullish BTC price predictions.

Bitcoin (BTC) at $122,000 in ten months could be an “average return” if history repeats itself.

Key points:

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  • An “informal” Bitcoin price metric gives 88% odds of BTC/USD trading higher by early 2027.

  • $122,000 per coin would mark an “average return” based on prior performance.

  • Bullish BTC price predictions remain in place despite the current low sentiment.

BTC price ended half of past 24 months higher

New analysis from network economist Timothy Peterson gives almost 90% odds of a BTC price being higher by early 2027.

Bitcoin’s underperformance since Q4 2025 has not removed every bullish BTC price prediction that leverages historical data.

For Peterson, monthly price action over the past two years points to a recovery through the rest of the year.

“50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now,” he reported on X. 

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“The average return is exp(60%)-1 = 82% => $122,000. Data goes back to 2011.”

Trailing positive BTC price months with put option payoff data. Source: Timothy Peterson/X

In a previous post, Peterson acknowledged that trailing price performance is more useful for identifying trend “inflection points” than price targets.

“This metric measures frequency, not magnitude. So Bitcoin could trend sideways for months and this metric could still go down. But it is still very useful for identifying inflection points,” he wrote, calling the tool “informal.”

Trailing positive BTC price months. Source: Timothy Peterson/X

A survey conducted by Peterson on Sunday, meanwhile, underscored existing bearish crypto market sentiment.

Source: Timothy Peterson

Bitcoin bulls double down

As Cointelegraph reported, other market sources continue to beat on a major BTC price recovery in 2026.

Related: Bitcoin whales participate in V-shaped accumulation, offsetting 230K BTC sell-off

Among them is an analysis from Bernstein, which this month offered a $150,000 target, calling Bitcoin’s comedown its “weakest bear case” in history.

US banking giant Wells Fargo additionally sees $150 billion in capital inflows into Bitcoin and stocks by the end of March.

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“Speculation picks up with bigger savings…we expect YOLO to return,” analyst Ohsung Kwon wrote in a note last week.