Ethereum has weakened for a second straight session as a bearish rounding-top pattern and renewed selling pressure threaten a move toward $1,650.

According to data from crypto.news, Ethereum (ETH) was trading near $1,737 at press time, down nearly 2% over the past 24 hours after a wallet linked to a large holder transferred roughly $26.9 million worth of Ether to a centralized exchange.

The move triggered fresh profit-taking after Ethereum’s recent recovery stalled just below a major technical resistance zone between $1,800 and $1,806, where the daily Supertrend indicator and the 50-day exponential moving average converged.

Geopolitical tensions have added another layer of pressure. Oil prices climbed after fresh U.S. military action targeting Iranian energy infrastructure, reviving inflation concerns and lifting Treasury yields. Risk assets weakened across global markets as technology stocks retreated, with cryptocurrencies moving lower alongside equities.

Exchange-traded fund demand has nevertheless remained constructive. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have now posted four consecutive days of net inflows, while Coinbase Premium has continued recovering from recent lows, suggesting institutional demand has improved even as price struggles to reclaim overhead resistance.

Derivatives positioning also paints a mixed picture. According to analyst Rain, Ethereum’s recent advance has come primarily from spot buying rather than leveraged speculation.

“$ETH is up 10% this week and open interest barely moved: the actual signal,” Rain wrote on X. “Leverage ratio hasn’t recovered from June, this bounce comes from spot demand.”

Rain added that net taker volume turned positive on June 28, while roughly $76.2 million in positions were liquidated over the past day, with long traders accounting for most of the losses after ETH failed to hold above $1,800.

Ethereum technical structure favors a move toward $1,650

Ethereum’s 4-hour chart has formed a bearish rounding-top pattern after the recovery from late June stalled near $1,830. Price has already broken below the ascending trendline that supported the rally and slipped beneath the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $1,724 after repeated rejection near the 78.6% level at roughly $1,772.

Momentum indicators have also turned weaker. The 4-hour RSI has fallen to around 44 after approaching overbought territory earlier this week, while the MACD remains below its signal line with expanding negative histogram bars. If sellers maintain control, the next major technical objective sits near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at approximately $1,657, aligning closely with the projected rounding-top target around $1,650.

The daily chart offers little relief for bulls. Ethereum remains below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages near $1,789, $2,025, and $2,247, respectively, keeping the medium-term trend under pressure. Chaikin Money Flow has stayed slightly above zero, suggesting spot demand has not disappeared entirely, but buyers have yet to generate enough momentum to reclaim key moving averages.

CoinGlass liquidation data also identifies an important support zone between $1,700 and $1,720, where a large concentration of leveraged long positions remains. A decisive break below that range could force another wave of liquidations and accelerate a decline toward the $1,650 region.

Holding above $1,700 remains critical for bulls

Analyst Ted Pillows believes Ethereum has already lost an important technical level.

“$ETH has lost the $1,750 support zone. A daily close below the level would be really bad for Ethereum.”

A sustained close below the $1,700-$1,720 support band would strengthen the bearish setup and expose Ethereum to additional losses toward $1,650, with the June low near $1,550 becoming the next major support. Renewed geopolitical tensions, elevated bond yields, or another wave of whale selling could add further pressure if risk appetite weakens again.

The bearish outlook would lose momentum if ETH quickly reclaims the $1,800-$1,806 resistance area. A breakout above that zone would invalidate the rounding-top pattern, shift attention back to the recent high near $1,833, and improve the chances of another attempt toward the psychological $1,900 level, particularly if ETF inflows continue and leverage returns to the futures market.

The DAX 40 has shed more than 2% over the past several sessions, breaking a rally that had pushed the index to record highs on the back of Germany’s fiscal pivot toward defence, infrastructure and climate spending. The pullback raises a legitimate question: is this a healthy pause within an intact uptrend, or the start of a deeper correction?

On the macro front, the picture remains mixed but constructive. German durable goods orders surprised meaningfully to the upside, hinting that domestic industry may finally be turning a corner. That said, a portion of this year’s projected GDP growth stems from calendar effects rather than genuine demand recovery.

Monetary policy offers the clearest explanation for the recent weakness. The ECB delivered its first hike since 2023 in June, and the shift in tone alone unsettled rate-sensitive DAX sectors like Financials and real estate, while a firmer euro added pressure on export-driven industrials.

Technical Analysis

As the chart shows, DAX 40 (GDAXI on FXOpen) has climbed steadily from April’s lows along a well-respected ascending trendline, recently pushing to new record highs near 26,000 before the sharp two-session pullback that triggered this correction. Price has now retraced heading to that same trendline, which converges with the 24,500-24,600 support zone—making this an important decision point for the index.

Bullish Scenario

If buyers step back in and defend the trendline together with the 24,500-24,600 zone, the broader uptrend structure remains intact. In this case, the recent drop would look more like a routine shakeout than a genuine reversal. From there, a renewed push back above the 25,400-25,550 resistance area—where the index broke down during the pullback—would be the first sign that momentum is returning. A clean break above that zone would put fresh record highs firmly back on the table, extending the rally that has defined the DAX since April.

Bearish Scenario

On the other hand, a decisive daily close below the trendline and the 24,500-24,600 support would be a meaningful technical signal, suggesting the correction has more room to run. Losing this zone would likely trigger further selling, as it has acted as a springboard for the rally since spring. In that scenario, the index would probably drift toward the 24,000 area first, with 23,000-23,200—the last major support tested back in April—becoming the key downside target if selling pressure intensifies.

With price now sitting exactly on this critical trendline, the coming sessions look set to decide whether the DAX’s record-breaking run continues, or whether this correction has only just begun.

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Tax authorities, meanwhile, are concerned about widespread underreporting. In the financial year ended March 2023, fewer than a quarter of the 645,000 individuals who transacted in crypto actually declared those gains on their tax returns.

Transactions executed on offshore exchanges and peer-to-peer platforms, especially those denominated in rupees, remain difficult to track, trace and tax.

Indian crypto investors have been operating in a regulatory grey zone since the Supreme Court struck down the RBI’s 2018 ban. It is neither outright illegal nor clearly regulated. A 2021 draft bill to ban private cryptocurrencies was never presented and policy discussions have been repeatedly delayed.

While the government has spoken of balancing innovation with risk management, the latest internal documents suggest key agencies are still not ready to embrace digital assets.

India’s reluctance can partly be explained by its heavy dependence on energy imports and persistent current account deficits. The fragility of this position was recently exposed when tensions with Iran drove oil prices higher, inflating the energy import bill and pushing the rupee to record lows. Authorities are concerned that widespread crypto adoption could accelerate capital outflows, bypassing traditional banking channels and worsening the external deficit.

The US dollar has entered a period of consolidation following last week’s sharp price swings, as market participants turn their attention to the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes. Investors are looking for additional guidance on the future path of interest rates and whether support for a hawkish monetary policy stance remains widespread within the Fed.

Further uncertainty was created by last week’s mixed US labour market data, which raised concerns about the resilience of the US economy but did not trigger a significant reassessment of Federal Reserve policy expectations. Attention has now shifted to the FOMC minutes, with traders focusing on the Fed’s assessment of inflation risks and its outlook for future interest rate decisions. Confirmation of a hawkish stance could provide fresh support for the US dollar, while a more cautious assessment of economic conditions may strengthen expectations of future policy easing.

USD/JPY

Against this backdrop, USD/JPY is consolidating after retreating sharply from multi-year highs. The yen remains under pressure due to the wide interest rate differential between the United States and Japan. However, with the pair trading close to multi-year highs, concerns over possible intervention by the Japanese authorities continue to limit further upside.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY may retest the 162.60–162.90 area after forming a Piercing Line candlestick pattern on the daily chart following the recent pullback. A deeper correction would become more likely if the pair closes decisively below 160.50.

Key events for USD/JPY:

• Today, 14:00 (GMT+3): MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications (US)
• Today, 21:00 (GMT+3): FOMC meeting minutes
• Tomorrow, 02:50 (GMT+3): Japan Foreign Bond Investment

USD/CAD

USD/CAD continues to trade sideways within the 1.4140–1.4250 range, suggesting the market is building momentum for a potential breakout. A sustained move above 1.4250 would open the door for further gains towards 1.4300–1.4400. Conversely, a break below 1.4140 could trigger a deeper correction towards the 1.4020–1.4080 region.

Key events for USD/CAD:

• Today, 17:30 (GMT+3): US Crude Oil Inventories
• Tomorrow, 15:30 (GMT+3): US Initial Jobless Claims
• Tomorrow, 17:00 (GMT+3): US Existing Home Sales

The US dollar remains in a holding pattern ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes, which could become the key catalyst for its next move. If the document confirms that Fed officials remain concerned about persistent inflation and continue to favour a hawkish policy stance, the dollar could receive renewed support. On the other hand, a more cautious assessment of the economy and the monetary policy outlook may encourage profit-taking on long dollar positions and lead to a broader corrective move.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Kenya has moved to procure a blockchain surveillance platform capable of tracking transactions across more than 20 blockchain networks as the country prepares to supervise licensed crypto businesses under its new virtual assets law.

According to tender documents reviewed by Capital FM Africa, Kenya’s Capital Markets Authority (CMA) is seeking an advanced blockchain analytics system that can monitor digital asset activity in both real time and retrospectively. 

The proposed platform would support regulatory investigations, identify suspicious transactions, and strengthen compliance oversight as the country’s crypto licensing framework moves toward implementation.

Under the tender specifications, the system must support Bitcoin, Ethereum, and at least 20 other blockchain networks. It would generate automated alerts for high-risk wallets, unusually large transfers, coin mixers, darknet-linked addresses, and entities listed on sanctions databases maintained by the United Nations and the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control.

The regulator also wants software capable of mapping wallet relationships, rebuilding transaction histories, tracing funds across multiple blockchains, and assigning risk scores linked to money laundering, ransomware, fraud, and terrorism financing. In addition, the CMA plans to use the platform to identify the cryptocurrency exchanges most frequently used by Kenyan residents and detect offshore platforms serving local users without regulatory approval.

Surveillance tools to support new crypto rules

The surveillance purchase comes after Kenya introduced its first comprehensive legal framework for digital assets. President William Ruto signed the Virtual Assets Service Providers Act into law in October, with the legislation taking effect the following month.

The law divides regulatory responsibilities between the Central Bank of Kenya and the CMA. While the central bank oversees payment services, stablecoins, and custodial wallet providers, the CMA is responsible for regulating cryptocurrency exchanges, brokers, investment advisers, and tokenization platforms as Kenya aligns its regulatory framework with anti-money laundering standards set by the Financial Action Task Force.

Although the legal framework is already in force, no crypto firms have received licences so far. The National Treasury released draft regulations in March, and existing operators have until November 2026 to meet the new compliance requirements.

Earlier this year, Kenya’s Finance Bill 2026 proposed additional reporting obligations for Virtual Asset Service Providers. Under the proposal, crypto firms would submit annual reports to the Kenya Revenue Authority containing information on reportable users and controlling persons, while the country would also be able to exchange virtual asset transaction data with foreign tax authorities under international reporting standards, according to an analysis published by KPMG Kenya.

Kenya joins global regulators using blockchain analytics

The capabilities outlined in the CMA’s tender closely match commercial blockchain intelligence platforms offered by companies including Chainalysis, TRM Labs, and Elliptic, which supply transaction monitoring software to regulators and law enforcement agencies in several countries.

Kenya remains one of Africa’s largest cryptocurrency markets. According to Chainalysis, users in the country received roughly $19 billion worth of crypto between July 2024 and June 2025, placing Kenya fourth on the continent. The report also estimated that more than six million Kenyans use digital assets, with a significant share of activity taking place through peer-to-peer trading channels.

Similar blockchain monitoring tools are already being used elsewhere. In the United States, Immigration and Customs Enforcement moved last year to acquire forensic software from TRM Labs and Chainalysis, while both companies already provide services to agencies including the FBI, DEA, and IRS. Britain’s tax authority, HMRC, has also contracted TRM Labs to assist in tracing suspicious cryptocurrency transactions.

Key takeaways

• Zcash (ZEC) climbed more than 4% after developers announced progress toward proving its new privacy system is free from undetectable counterfeiting vulnerabilities.
• Project Tachyon is close to completing a mathematical verification of Zcash’s upcoming Ironwood shielded pool.

Zcash’s native token ZEC surged more than 4% on Wednesday after developers announced they are close to mathematically proving that the network’s next-generation privacy system is free from a critical class of counterfeiting vulnerabilities.

The announcement restored investor confidence following last month’s disclosure of a security flaw in Zcash’s existing shielded transaction system, helping the privacy-focused cryptocurrency reclaim the $500 level for the first time since early June.

Project Tachyon nears verification of Ironwood Shielded Pool

The latest update comes from Project Tachyon, the team leading the formal verification of Zcash’s upcoming Ironwood shielded pool, which is set to replace the current Orchard privacy pool.

According to the developers, they are close to producing a mathematical proof confirming that Ironwood does not contain undetectable counterfeiting bugs.

Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox said the project is “on the verge” of completing a formal proof demonstrating that the latest generation of Zcash shielded pools is secure against this class of vulnerability.

If successful, the verification would provide stronger security guarantees for one of the network’s core privacy features.

Investor confidence was shaken last month after developers disclosed a critical vulnerability affecting Zcash’s Orchard shielded pool.

The flaw could have theoretically allowed an attacker to create counterfeit ZEC within the privacy pool without detection.

Although developers quickly patched the issue and said they found no evidence that the vulnerability had ever been exploited, Zcash’s privacy architecture made it impossible to cryptographically prove that no counterfeit coins had been created.

The disclosure triggered a sharp market reaction, sending ZEC down more than 40% in just two days.

Will ZEC reclaim $550?

The ZEC/USD 4-hour chart remains bullish and efficient following the recent rally. The momentum indicators suggest that the bulls could push ZEC’s price higher.

The RSI of 57 shows that ZEC is above the neutral zone, while the MACD lines reinforce the bullish bias.

If the bulls remain in control, ZEC could rally past the Tuesday high of $510 and set a new weekly high around $550. 

A decisive candle close above this level could allow ZEC to reclaim the $600 psychological zone in the near term. 

However, if the bears come into the picture, ZEC could retest the 4-hour TLQ at $438 over the next few hours.

Key Takeaways

• Tom Narayan from RBC Capital increased Tesla’s price target from $475 to $500, pointing to potential SpaceX acquisition scenarios
• An all-stock transaction with SpaceX purchasing Tesla at a 20–30% premium represents the most probable deal structure
• JPMorgan acknowledged strategic merit in combining the companies but highlighted significant regulatory obstacles, especially concerning China
• Shares of TSLA settled near $402.90 on Tuesday, sliding more than 4%, with continued weakness in Wednesday’s pre-market session
• Analyst consensus leans toward Hold on TSLA, with an average target price of $399.71 across Wall Street

Tuesday saw Tesla (TSLA) shares settle near $402.90, marking a decline exceeding 4%, as financial analysts began evaluating an intriguing proposition: could Tesla and SpaceX merge into a single corporate entity?

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

Speculation intensified following SpaceX’s completion of a groundbreaking $75 billion IPO that assigned the company a $1.77 trillion market valuation. This milestone thrust Elon Musk’s business portfolio into the spotlight, prompting market participants to consider whether his two flagship ventures might consolidate into one comprehensive platform spanning artificial intelligence, robotics, sustainable energy, transportation, and aerospace.

Tom Narayan, an analyst at RBC Capital, took the lead by increasing his TSLA price objective from $475 to $500 while maintaining his Buy recommendation. He explained that growing media discussion surrounding a potential Tesla-SpaceX combination had sparked investor curiosity about the financial implications of such a union.

Narayan presented his analysis with precision. According to his assessment, the most feasible transaction framework would involve an all-stock arrangement where SpaceX purchases Tesla while offering shareholders a 20–30% premium over current market prices. This premium calculation forms the foundation for his $500 target.

He further explained that Tesla shareholders would probably insist on this premium compensation, particularly since Elon Musk’s ownership stake would expand beyond 50% in the combined organization — substantially higher than his existing 20% position in Tesla alone.

Excluding any merger scenario, Narayan calculates Tesla’s independent valuation at approximately $435, representing roughly 10% upside from recent trading levels.

Revised Business Unit Valuations

Narayan’s analysis also included updated assessments across Tesla’s various business divisions. He increased his robotaxi valuation by 20% following an upward revision to his global fleet projections, identifying this segment as Tesla’s most compelling long-term growth avenue within a $4.2 trillion total addressable market.

The humanoid robotics division experienced a downward adjustment. Narayan reduced this segment’s valuation by approximately 40% after lowering his U.S. market penetration forecast from 50% to 20%. Despite this cut, humanoid robots still represent roughly 25% of his overall valuation model.

Energy storage also faced a 30% reduction, reflecting a weaker market environment and intensifying competition that’s pressuring profit margins — despite ongoing demand growth from AI data center infrastructure.

JPMorgan Expresses Reservations

Rajat Gupta, an analyst at JPMorgan, recognized the strategic rationale behind a merger, characterizing such a combination as “strategically coherent on paper.” Tesla contributes electric vehicles, battery technology, autonomous driving software, and robotics capabilities. SpaceX adds rocket launch systems, Starlink satellite networks, orbital infrastructure, and defense-sector connections.

Combined, these assets would create what resembles an integrated industrial technology conglomerate rather than two distinct companies.

However, Gupta stopped short of recommending the stock based on merger speculation. He identified considerable regulatory and geopolitical challenges, with China representing the most significant complication. Tesla maintains substantial manufacturing operations and revenue generation in Chinese markets. Meanwhile, SpaceX operates in sensitive satellite communications and defense-adjacent sectors that could trigger political resistance from Beijing authorities.

Gupta maintained his Hold rating on Tesla shares.

The prevailing Wall Street sentiment aligns with this cautious stance. Among analysts who’ve issued ratings on TSLA within the past three months, 10 recommend Buy, 15 advise Hold, and three suggest Sell. The consensus price target stands at $399.71 — indicating modest downside from present trading levels.

TSLA continued trading lower in Wednesday’s pre-market session.