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I’m not confident we hit a true capitulation in bitcoin, derivatives expert says

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I'm not confident we hit a true capitulation in bitcoin, derivatives expert says

About a week ago, bitcoin dropped more than 10% in a day to around $60,000 before rebounding to $70,000 in recent days. The question is, did the slide mark “capitulation,” when holders panic-sell at a loss, exhaust bearish pressure and set the stage for a new bull run?

The futures market says no, suggesting there’s scope for another leg lower, according to Amberdata’s director of derivatives, Greg Magadini.

“[The] lack of ‘reaction’ in the futures basis doesn’t make me confident we hit a true CAPITULATION moment,” Magadini said in a market note Monday.

Magadini is referring to how futures typically trade in relation to the spot price during bearish trends and capitulation phases.

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Futures are standardised derivative contracts to buy or sell an underlying asset, like bitcoin, at a set price on a future date. Traders use futures to bet on price direction, buying contracts when they expect a rally or shorting when they anticipate a decline, without actually owning the asset itself.

The price difference, or basis, between futures and spot markets reveals market sentiment and trader positioning. When futures trade at a significant premium to spot prices, it signals bullish optimism among investors. Conversely, a discount indicates bearish pressure.​

Historically, bitcoin bear markets have tended to bottom out, with standard futures and perpetual futures trading at significant discounts to spot on major exchanges. These massive discounts represented capitulation and mark the final bear-market flush.

Last week, however, futures slipped into a discount only for a short time.

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“Although the 90-day basis dropped lower on each leg down for BTC, these moves barely ranged -100bps. Today, fixed basis remains around 4% for BTC (inline with risk-free treasury yields),” Magadini said.

Compare that with the end of the 2022 bear market, when the 90-day futures traded at a 9% discount as the bitcoin price bottomed out below 20,000. So, if history is a guide, bitcoin could see another leg lower where futures traders capitulate, pushing prices into a steep discount relative to the spot price.

Bitcoin recently changed hands near $69,000, a 1% drop since midnight UTC, according to CoinDesk data.

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Wintermute warns AI-fueled liquidity drain is suffocating Bitcoin

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Wintermute warns AI-fueled liquidity drain is suffocating Bitcoin

Wintermute says AI stocks are siphoning liquidity from crypto, leaving Bitcoin stuck in high‑volatility, low‑spot demand price discovery as U.S. selling and ETF outflows bite.

Bitcoin’s latest lurch lower is no mystery: liquidity is bleeding into the AI trade, and the crypto market is being left to dance on thinning ice.

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Macro rotation and Wintermute’s warning

Market maker Wintermute notes that Bitcoin “briefly fell to $60,000 last Monday, erasing all gains since Trump’s election,” as spot flows reveal “significant structural pressure.” The firm highlights that the “Coinbase premium has consistently been in a discount state… since last December, indicating ongoing selling pressure from the U.S.,” while internal OTC data shows “U.S. counterparties were the main sellers throughout the week,” a trend “amplified by continuous ETF fund redemptions.”

Wintermute argues that “over the past few months, AI‑related assets have been continuously absorbing available market funds, crowding out the allocation space for other asset classes,” with crypto underperformance largely explained by “the rotation of funds towards the AI sector.”

High‑volatility price discovery

Last week’s action resembled a “surrender‑style clearing, with volatility soaring and buying support emerging at $60,000,” Wintermute observes, adding that “in an environment where spot trading remains relatively low, leverage has become the dominant factor in price fluctuations.” Without a rebound in open interest, “it will be difficult for the market to form sustained follow‑through on either the long or short side.”

A “true structural recovery” now hinges on “a return of spot demand,” a positive Coinbase premium, reversing ETF flows, and stabilizing basis, the firm says. Until then, Bitcoin is “entering a phase of high volatility and choppy price discovery,” with direction “increasingly dominated by institutional fund flows from ETFs and derivatives channels” as retail attention drifts elsewhere.

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Related coverage on structural selling and ETF flows can be found via ChainCatcher’s analysis of Bitcoin slipping below key moving averages, BlackRock’s renewed transfers to Coinbase Prime, and Hyperscale Data’s growing BTC treasury holdings.

Spot benchmarks and AI‑crypto pulse

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades near $68,700, down less than 1% over 24 hours, on roughly $46B in volume, while total market value hovers around $1.37T. Ethereum’s market cap stands near $242B, with about $28.6B changing hands in the last day.

Within AI‑linked crypto, the Artificial Superintelligence Alliance’s FET token changes hands around $0.16, on roughly $39M in 24‑hour volume. Render (RENDER) trades close to $1.31, with about $35.8M in daily turnover. Akash Network (AKT) is near $0.32, with a market cap just under $92M and 24‑hour volume around $2.8M. SingularityNET (AGIX) sits near $0.07, on modest volume of around $41K.

Wintermute’s bottom line is blunt: “For crypto assets to outperform again, AI trading needs to cool down first.” Until that rotation snaps back, Bitcoin’s next act will be written in volatility, not in trend.

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Bybit becomes the title partner of Stockholm Open

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Bybit becomes the title partner of Stockholm Open

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Bybit EU has secured a three-year title partnership with the Stockholm Open, renaming the tournament the Bybit Stockholm Open from 2026 to 2028.

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Bybit EU, the European arm of Bybit and a MiCAR-licensed crypto-asset service provider, is entering a three-year title partnership with the Stockholm Open that will see the tournament compete under the name Bybit Stockholm Open from 2026 through 2028.

The partnership marks a long-term commitment from Bybit EU and provides the historic tennis tournament with a stable partner to support its continued development for players and spectators. As part of the agreement, the tournament will reclaim its classic name, reinforcing its identity and long-standing ties to Stockholm and Swedish tennis.

Bybit views the Nordic region as a strategically important market and considers the Stockholm Open a strong platform for building a lasting presence. Gustav Buder, Regional Partner Nordics at Bybit EU, said the tournament’s strong history, high credibility, and audience that values quality and long-term commitment made it a natural fit. He noted that the partnership represents an important step in establishing trust and a durable presence in the Nordic market.

Since its start the Stockholm Open has served as a meeting point for sport, business, and the public, with a long tradition of collaboration with partners from the financial sector. The tournament attracts an audience with a strong interest in finance and business, aligning closely with Bybit EU’s profile.

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The partnership will enable Bybit to engage its premium client base through the Bybit VIP program, offering select clients curated access to the tournament and bespoke experiences that bridge finance, sport, and long-term value creation.

Rasmus Hult, CEO of Bybit Stockholm Open, said the tournament has extensive experience working with financial partners and views Bybit as a strong, long-term partner that shares its ambition to continue developing the event. He added that jointly reclaiming the tournament’s classic name clearly reflects its home and heritage.

Disclosure: This content is provided by a third party. Neither crypto.news nor the author of this article endorses any product mentioned on this page. Users should conduct their own research before taking any action related to the company.

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Will ETH & SOL bounce back?

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Ethereum, Solana price prediction: Will ETH & SOL bounce back? - 2

Crypto markets are definitely under pressure. The year got off to a shaky start, and weakness has continued as traders remain cautious in a low-liquidity, macro-uncertain environment. That’s left Ethereum and Solana stuck in corrective moves for now.

Let’s take a closer look at ETH and SOL, analyzing recent price moves and network fundamentals to gauge their near-term price predictions.

Summary

  • Crypto markets remain volatile and risk-off as of February 10, 2026, with large-cap coins like Ethereum and Solana trading below last year’s highs.
  • ETH is around $2,016, showing short-term bearish momentum, with key support at $1,760 and resistance near $2,150–$2,500.
  • SOL trades near $84 in a clear downtrend, with short-term support at $80–$90, major downside at $70–$65, and resistance at $100, keeping the SOL outlook cautious.

Current market scenario

As of February 10, crypto markets remain unsettled. Volatility is elevated, sentiment is fragile, and rallies are quickly met with selling pressure. Many large-cap coins are still trading below last year’s highs, highlighting a risk-off environment.

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Altcoins have borne the brunt of selling, with investors either rotating into cash or waiting for confirmation of trends. Ethereum and Solana remain technically bearish for now, although network activity continues in the background.

Ethereum price prediction

Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading around $2,016, having failed to hold above the key $2,100 resistance zone. Year-over-year, ETH is down roughly 20–25%, showing the ongoing pressure on large-cap altcoins. Short-term momentum hasn’t helped either, with the ETH price falling 0.9% in the last 24 hours and 11.6% over the past week.

Ethereum, Solana price prediction: Will ETH & SOL bounce back? - 2
ETH 1-day chart, February 2026 | Source: crypto.news

Technically, the short-term trend is still bearish. On Sunday, a bearish pin bar showed up just under $2,100, meaning sellers are in control there. If price can’t get past this level, the next downside target is around $1,760, which acted as support the last time price dipped this low.

From a fundamentals perspective, things are still solid for Ethereum. Developers are busy, users are active, and Layer-2 adoption keeps expanding. These network improvements ease congestion and boost throughput, even if the ETH price doesn’t show it yet. They remain a key part of the longer-term ETH forecast.

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If buyers step in and push Ethereum over $2,150 for a daily close, the bearish trend would start to fade. After that, a move toward $2,500 looks more likely.

Solana price prediction

Solana (SOL) is currently trading near $84. While the SOL price is up 0.5% on the day, the bigger picture remains ugly, with the token down nearly 18.4% over the past week.

Ethereum, Solana price prediction: Will ETH & SOL bounce back? - 3
SOL 1-day chart, February 2026 | Source: crypto.news

From a technical standpoint, Solana is still in a clear downtrend. Price recently dropped below a descending channel and is now holding in the $80–$90 zone as short-term support. Trend-wise, nothing much has changed— lower highs and lower lows remain dominant.

If this support breaks, the next downside area to watch is $70–$65, which marks the last strong demand zone before liquidity dries up. On the flip side, $100 is the key resistance bulls need to reclaim to shift sentiment.

For now, the SOL outlook remains cautious, at least until we see buyers show real strength.

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Final thoughts

Right now, Ethereum and Solana aren’t having an easy time. Bears are in control in the short term, but Ethereum’s bigger picture is still intact. Until the price can get back above key resistance levels, rallies are likely to be shaky. Patience and waiting for confirmation will be important for anyone following ETH or SOL.

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Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News & Price Indexes

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Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News & Price Indexes

Bitcoin’s sharp correction at the start of the month may represent a critical “halfway point” in the current bear market, according to Kaiko Research.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $59,930 on Friday, marking its lowest level since October 2024, before the re-election of US President Donald Trump, according to TradingView data

The decline suggests the market has moved out of the euphoric post-halving phase and into what Kaiko described as a historically typical bear market period that lasts about 12 months before a new accumulation phase begins.

In a research note shared with Cointelegraph on Monday, Kaiko said Bitcoin’s 32% crash was the most significant correction since the 2024 Bitcoin halving and may mark the “halfway point” of the current bear market.

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“Analysis of on-chain metrics and comparative performance across tokens reveals a market approaching critical technical support levels that will determine whether the four-year cycle framework remains intact,” Kaiko said.

Bitcoin halving cycles, all-time chart. Source: Kaiko Research

Related: Trend Research cuts ETH exposure by over 400K as liquidation risk rises

Kaiko’s report highlighted several emerging onchain bear market signals, including a 30% drop in aggregate spot crypto trading volume across the 10 leading centralized exchanges, from around $1 trillion in October 2025 down to $700 billion in November.

At the same time, combined Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) futures open interest declined from $29 billion to $25 billion over the past week, a 14% reduction that Kaiko said reflects ongoing deleveraging.

Open interest for BTC and ETH futures, top 10 exchanges. Source: Kaiko Research

While Bitcoin has realigned with the historical four-year halving cycle since the beginning of the year, determining the depth of the current bear market is complex, as “many catalysts that fueled BTC’s rally to $126,000 are still in effect,” said Shawn Young, chief analyst, MEXC Research.

“With oversold indicators emerging on multiple timeframes, the rebound conversation around BTC is more a question of when, not if,” Young said, adding that Bitcoin may be entering a new cycle that will only become clear over the next year.

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Related: Binance adds $300M in Bitcoin to SAFU reserve during market dip

Is $60,000 the bear market bottom?

The key question for investors is whether the dip to $60,000 represents the low of the current bear market. The level roughly aligns with Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, which has historically acted as long-term support.

Still, more market volatility is expected in the absence of crypto-specific market catalysts, Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen, told Cointelegraph, adding:

“With that said, it is still very hard to say if it means we are going back to the conventional 4-year cycle. I have seen many prominent figures in the space air the idea, but equally many who do not think so.”

However, Kaiko pointed to a 52% retracement from Bitcoin’s previous all-time high being “unusually shallow” compared to previous bear market cycles.

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A 60% to 68% retracement would “align more closely” with historical drawdowns, which implies a Bitcoin cycle bottom around $40,000 to $50,000, Kaiko said.

Source: Michaël van de Poppe

Still, some market participants argue that $60,000 already marked a local bottom. Analyst and MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe called the crash to $60,000 the local market bottom for Bitcoin’s price, citing a record low in investor sentiment and a critical low in the relative strength index, which sank to values last seen in 2018 and 2020.

Magazine: Would Bitcoin survive a 10-year power outage?