Leading decentralized exchange Hyperliquid’s push into prediction markets is about who captures the upside, not just cheaper trading, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX exchange and CIO of Maelstrom fund.

CoinDesk reported earlier that Hyperliquid is preparing a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 is a proposal that introduces event trading on Hyperliquid.

Hayes said that structure is only the first layer. In a note to CoinDesk, he argued that the real differentiator is HYPE, Hyperliquid’s exchange token, which he said allows users to benefit from platform activity in a way Polymarket and Kalshi currently do not.

“HIP-4 will quickly become a dominate prediction market because of Hyperliquid’s large user base, much cheaper trading fees, and very robust tech infrastructure,” Hayes told CoinDesk. “Users who own the $HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4.”

Polymarket is expected to launch a token, often referred to as $POLY.

On Gate, premarket perpetual contracts tied to a potential $POLY token are trading around $14, implying a fully-diluted valuation of roughly $14 billion. HYPE, by comparison, has an FDV of about $38 billion, according to CoinGecko data.

Pre-listing markets are often highly speculative and can be thinly traded, meaning any implied valuation should be treated with caution and may not reliably reflect actual market demand.

The argument also comes down to geography. Polymarket registered with the CFTC last July and is rebuilding its U.S. business, putting compliance at the center of its strategy.

However, in Asia, it is still grappling with how regulators classify its product. It is geoblocked in Singapore, Thailand, and Taiwan, partially restricted in Japan. Meanwhile, in Hong Kong, prediction markets more broadly are on the radar of gambling regulators

Hyperliquid faces no equivalent constraint, and its user base skews toward Asia, where crypto-native trading is already deep.

The contrast is clearest with Kalshi.

As a CFTC-regulated exchange, Kalshi’s model is built around compliance and licensing, not token incentives, which likely rules out the kind of value-accrual layer Hayes is pointing to.

That makes it the most direct test of his thesis. Users can trade event outcomes on Kalshi, but they have no path to the upside of the platform itself. In traditional markets, that kind of upside is typically accessed via equity, such as an IPO, though for now, Kalshi users’ participation is limited to trading on the platform.

Across the three platforms, the split is structural: Hyperliquid already ties usage to a token, Polymarket appears to be moving in that direction, and Kalshi’s model likely prevents it altogether.

TLDR:

• 82.3% of Polymarket users traded under $10,000 in Q1 2026, confirming strong retail market dominance.
  
• Sports generated $10.1B in Q1 volume, with the NBA leading at $3.11B across 300,000 active users.
  
• Esports titles produced $1.47B in Q1, with median bets between $6–$9, surpassing traditional sports
  
• Monthly prediction market volume surged from $1.2B in 2025 to $25.7B by March 2026, per Polymarket data.

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Prediction markets recorded explosive growth in Q1 2026, backed almost entirely by retail traders. Bitget Wallet partnered with Polymarket and Dune Analytics to analyze behavior across 1.29 million wallets during the quarter.

The data covered who was trading, what they were trading, and what brought them back. Monthly volume climbed from roughly $1.2 billion in 2025 to $25.7 billion by March 2026.

Bernstein projects the category could reach $240 billion in annual volume this year.

Retail Behavior Shapes the Prediction Markets’ Landscape

In Q1 2026, 82.3% of Polymarket users traded under $10,000 across the entire quarter. Only 2.5% of users crossed the $100,000 mark during that period.

The average micro user traded just $35, and the average light user reached $392. These numbers confirm that small traders, not institutions, are currently defining this market.

Crypto served as the primary entry point for new users entering the space. It accounted for 39.6% of activity among the smallest traders on Polymarket.

Bitcoin alone drew 593,000 users and $5.42 billion in trading volume in Q1. The median Bitcoin trade stood at just $3.16, placing the barrier to entry at nearly zero.

As users became more active, their behavior shifted notably. They did not increase individual trade sizes; instead, they traded across more categories.

Micro users averaged 2.5 active days and 1.45 categories, while mid-tier users reached 9.9 active days and over 2.3 categories. Broader exploration, not bigger bets, drove deeper engagement throughout the quarter.

Bitget Wallet shared these findings in a post on X, noting that prediction markets now resemble a consumer app more than a financial product.

The firm also noted that crypto’s share of activity gradually fell to 36.8% among mid-tier traders. It remains the most effective onboarding tool in the category. However, it is not what retains users over the long term.

Sports and Category Frequency Fuel Long-Term Engagement

Sports emerged as the largest category on Polymarket in Q1, generating $10.1 billion in volume. Participation in sports markets rose from 22.7% among micro users to 29.2% among mid-tier users.

A 45% surge in March was driven by the NBA season and NCAA March Madness. The NBA alone attracted 300,000 users and $3.11 billion in trading volume.

European football leagues also drew substantial international participation during the quarter. The English Premier League generated $540 million, the Champions League contributed $448 million, and La Liga added $368 million.

NCAA Basketball produced $900 million in volume. These figures show that sports markets have a truly global audience.

Esports performed well above expectations within the sports category. League of Legends generated $657 million, CS2 added $536 million, and Dota 2 contributed $209 million.

Together, those three titles produced roughly $1.47 billion in Q1. Median bet sizes in esports ran between $6 and $9, higher than in most traditional sports.

Frequency of engagement proved to be a key retention driver across all categories. Weather markets surged 263% in March, led by daily temperature forecast predictions.

Crypto markets generated $7.3 billion in Q1, rising 55% as an always-on trading environment. Categories with built-in recurrence consistently showed stronger user return rates across the quarter.

XRP (XRP) price was up 1.2% over the last 24 hours to trade at $1.40 on Wednesday. Several market and technical factors suggest that the XRP/USD pair may climb further as long as key support levels hold.

Key takeaways:

• Spot XRP ETFs are set to record their strongest monthly inflows since December 2025, signaling renewed institutional demand.
• A symmetrical triangle setup sees XRP price rising roughly 53% as long as support at $1.40 holds.

Ripple CEO on XRP: “Lock in”

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse is urging the XRP community to “lock in” as massive marketing campaigns take over the Las Vegas Strip ahead of the XRP Las Vegas 2026 (XRPLV26) conference. 

Related: Bitcoin, stocks risk ‘months’ of losses as Kevin Warsh Becomes Fed chair

The event, which is scheduled for Thursday and Friday will focus on the expanding XRP ecosystem, next-generation applications on the XRP Ledger and community building.

On Tuesday, OKX, a major crypto exchange, posted an image of the Las Vegas Sphere lit with the XRP logo, which Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse reposted with a simple directive to his followers: “Lock in.”

Source: X/OKX/Brad Garlinghouse

Ripple has heavily promoted the event with massive “Raise the Standard” XRP billboards across the Las Vegas Strip, timed with the ongoing Bitcoin 2026 conference. This has sparked renewed hype and social media buzz around the event.

However, historical patterns show Ripple/XRP events rarely trigger sustained price rallies. For instance, XRP price gained 16% over the week following Ripple’s Swell 2025. But this was followed by a 30% drop from $2.56 to $1.81 between Nov. 11 and Nov. 21 of that year.

Therefore, without major concrete announcements emerging from the stage, any upside may quickly fade amid broader market forces.

XRP ETF demand is “still alive”

XRP spot ETFs are gaining steady momentum again, with the latest inflows showing that investor demand is not just returning but holding firm at elevated levels. 

These investment products posted inflows in 11 of the last 13 days, totaling $82.42 million, according to data from SoSoValue. 

XRP ETFs have already pulled in $83.9 million in net inflows in April, marking a strong rebound from March’s $31.16 million outflow. 

This reversal makes April the “strongest monthly inflow since December 2025,” signaling a notable shift in momentum, analyst Xfinancebull said in a Monday post on X, adding:

“That does not guarantee instant price fireworks, but it absolutely tells me the bid for regulated $XRP exposure is still alive and building.”

Spot XRP ETF flows chart. Source: SoSoValue

Meanwhile, global XRP exchange-traded products (ETPs) posted inflows totaling $25 million during the week ending Friday. XRP ETPs have now recorded $148 million in net inflows so far in 2026, bringing the total assets under management (AUM) to roughly $2.6 billion.

Crypto funds net flows data. Source: CoinShares

This indicates a sustained institutional appetite for XRP products, adding to XRP’s tailwinds.

As Cointelegraph reported, exchange outflows, positive flows into whale addresses and strong ETF demand improve XRP’s chances of a sustained price recovery.

XRP price technicals put 50% rally in play

The XRP/USD pair has spent nearly three months inside a symmetrical triangle, defined by two converging trend lines. Its rebound from the lower trend line support on Wednesday now raises the odds of a move toward the upper boundary.

A daily candlestick close above the upper line of the triangle at $1.45 would open the way for a rally toward its measured target at $2.15, about 53% above the current price.

However, bulls must overcome resistance from the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $1.52 and the 200-day EMA at $1.75, before reaching this target.

XRP/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Notably, XRP’s chances hinge on bulls defending support at $1.40, which is also the 200-week EMA and the 20-day EMA, making this a key level. A decisive break below it risks invalidating the bullish narrative altogether.

It may instead raise the odds of the price declining toward the $0.98 mark, aligning with the triangle’s bearish target.

As Cointelegraph reported, a break below the moving averages around $1.38-$1.40 could see XRP price drop toward $1.12 over the next few days.

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta all report Q1 2026 AI earnings after the close on April 29, with crypto traders tracking whether their combined $600 billion in planned 2026 AI capital expenditure is translating into commensurate revenue and cloud growth.

AI earnings season reaches its most concentrated single session on April 29 when Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta all report after the close, the same afternoon as Powell’s final FOMC press conference. Yahoo Finance noted that capital expenditure guidance has overtaken headline earnings as the most market-sensitive line item, with combined 2026 AI infrastructure commitments of roughly $200 billion from Amazon, $175 to $185 billion from Alphabet, $146 billion from Microsoft, and $115 to $135 billion from Meta.

AI Earnings Results Could Move Crypto Either Direction Before Asia Open

As crypto.news reported, the last time Big Tech AI capex figures landed without sufficient revenue justification, top AI tokens dropped over 20% and Bitcoin fell sharply in the same session, as investors feared that astronomical infrastructure costs would erode margins before monetization arrived. The February 2026 episode illustrated how tightly crypto has become correlated with the AI investment narrative: a miss on cloud growth or a raised capex guide without matching revenue acceleration is processed by markets as evidence that the AI return on investment timeline is longer than priced, which tightens risk sentiment across both equity and crypto simultaneously. For tonight’s reports, the specific thresholds that matter are Microsoft Azure growth above 38%, AWS above 25%, Google Cloud above 48%, and Meta advertising margins above 40%. Any of these numbers coming in materially below expectation, particularly combined with raised capex guidance, would be a negative catalyst for Bitcoin after the Asia open.

The Bitcoin-AI Correlation That Makes Tonight Matter

As crypto.news documented, the correlation between Bitcoin and Nvidia reached elevated levels during a three-month rolling window through late 2025, and data from the Nasdaq showed a materially positive aggregate relationship between tech earnings outcomes and subsequent Bitcoin price action. The mechanism is direct: when AI-related equities sell off sharply on earnings disappointments, macro and growth funds reduce exposure across risk assets simultaneously, and Bitcoin, despite its non-sovereign properties, gets caught in the liquidity contraction alongside everything else that front-ran the AI spending boom. A beat cycle in which all four companies show cloud growth meeting or exceeding consensus, with AI revenue lines contributing meaningfully to that growth, would remove the single largest overhanging risk for risk assets heading into May.

What a Beat or Miss Means for Crypto Through the Weekend

As crypto.news tracked, the core concern analysts have raised repeatedly about the Big Tech AI capex cycle is the gap between infrastructure spending and actual profit generation. A Massachusetts Institute of Technology study found that despite $30 to $40 billion in enterprise spending on generative AI, 95% of companies reported no measurable return as of 2025. If tonight’s reports confirm that the hyperscaler cloud platforms are beginning to monetize that spend through sustained revenue acceleration, the relief rally in tech stocks would flow through to crypto via the same correlation channel that makes bad earnings dangerous. If the prints disappoint on the metrics that matter, Bitcoin at $77,000 after a 21% April rally represents exactly the kind of elevated entry point from which post-event corrections tend to be sharpest.

Strategy reports Q1 2026 earnings on Tuesday May 5, making tonight’s Mag 7 results the first major earnings signal of the week before Bitcoin’s most watched corporate treasury holder updates its own results.

A Dubai-led international crackdown on scam rings tied to fake crypto investment platforms resulted in 276 arrests last week, authorities said. The operation, conducted with the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation and China’s Ministry of Public Security, culminated in 275 arrests in Dubai and one additional arrest by the Royal Thai Police. Six individuals have been charged in the United States in connection with the scam centers, with four defendants and two fugitive co-conspirators facing federal fraud and money laundering counts in San Diego. If convicted, the offenses carry substantial penalties, including potential prison terms of up to 20 years per count.

According to the U.S. Department of Justice, the charges reflect a concerted, cross-border effort to dismantle networks that run “scam centers” built around fake crypto investment platforms and coercive recruitment. U.S. Assistant Attorney General Andrew Tysen Duva emphasized that fraud is borderless in today’s world, and so too must be law enforcement’s response in rooting out these operations. Separately, the FBI reported that Americans’ losses from crypto and artificial intelligence–related scams in 2025 surpassed $11 billion, with investment scams among the most damaging modalities.

Key takeaways

• Global operation led by Dubai police, with the FBI and China’s Ministry of Public Security, resulting in 276 arrests; 275 in Dubai and one in Thailand.
• Six individuals charged in the United States over fake crypto investment platforms promoted by the scam centers; penalties could reach up to 20 years per count if convicted.
• Separately, European authorities shut down a vast call-center network in the Balkans, with 10 arrests tied to three centers in Tirana and Albania, aided by Europol and Eurojust.
• Europol characterized the Albanian-Balkan operation as highly organized, noting a workforce of up to 450 employees spanning customer acquisition, conversion, retention, and back-office roles.
• The crackdown aligns with a broader warning: fraud in crypto spaces remains widespread, and enforcement actions are increasingly coordinated across continents.

Dubai crackdown: dismantling the alleged scam-center ecosystem

In the Dubai phase of the operation, authorities say the six defendants operated across three companies that ran scam centers leveraging fake crypto investment platforms. Victims were drawn in through seemingly legitimate online investment offerings advertised on social media, then steered into deposits that funded the networks’ activities. FBI investigators have identified millions of dollars in losses attributed to the network, underscoring the scale of the deception.

The U.S. DOJ’s announcement made clear that the charges include fraud and money laundering tied to the operation. The case highlights how organized groups can disguise their wrongdoing behind professional-looking platforms and structured recruitment strategies, aiming to extract funds from investors well beyond national borders. The DOJ’s statement, anchored by the collaboration with international partners, signals a sustained push to disrupt financial fraud that operates on a global stage.

European action: a highly organized, multinational scam operation

In a separate development, Austrian and Albanian authorities—supported by Europol and Eurojust—arrested ten individuals in relation to three scam centers operating in Tirana and surrounding areas. Europol described the operation as a stark example of how modern scam centers operate with a “scale and professionalism” that extends beyond a single country. The organization reportedly employed up to 450 people across functions such as customer acquisition, conversion, and retention, plus dedicated back-office teams handling finance, IT, human resources, and other support roles.

Victims in the European operation were lured through online platforms that promised lucrative investments, with losses estimated at more than €50 million ($58 million) globally. The case underscores how perpetrators blend the appearance of legitimate financial opportunity with aggressive sales tactics to extract funds from a broad swath of international victims.

The Europol briefing also emphasized that the structure of these operations—comprising many departments and specialized roles—facilitated a seamless flow from marketing to onboarding and ongoing customer engagement. This level of organization is a reminder to regulators and security professionals that crypto-adjacent scams can resemble legitimate financial services in their execution, even as the underlying claims remain fraudulent.

Why these actions matter for the crypto ecosystem

From a market and ecosystem perspective, the coordinated seizures reinforce several ongoing themes. First, cross-border enforcement remains a central tool in combatting sophisticated scam networks that weaponize crypto narratives to deceive investors. Second, the profitability of clearly fake investment schemes—bolstered by glossy marketing and social-media reach—raises the stakes for consumer protection and due diligence in the crypto space. Third, the parallel European crackdown demonstrates that scam centers can scale to hundreds of staff and a continent-spanning footprint, complicating traditional notions of jurisdiction and accountability.

Industry observers note that the most damaging scams often combine persuasive online marketing with pressure-filled sales tactics. Victims are steered into platforms that promise outsized returns, then pressured into escalating investments. The results are frequently heavy losses for individuals and a reputational drag for legitimate crypto ventures that operate within regulatory boundaries. The recent actions serve as a sobering reminder for investors to scrutinize investment platforms, verify licensing where applicable, and be wary of aggressive recruitment messages that blur the line between opportunity and fraud.

For builders and exchanges, the episodes underline the ongoing importance of robust know-your-customer and anti-fraud controls, transparent product disclosures, and rapid response mechanisms to suspicious activity. Regulators are increasingly calling for stronger interoperability among agencies and clearer cooperation with international partners to locate, disrupt, and prosecute scam networks before they can monetize new rounds of fundraising.

As the regulatory and enforcement landscape continues to evolve, market participants should watch for further disclosures from the U.S. Department of Justice, the FBI, Europol, and national authorities about ongoing prosecutions and follow-on actions. The combined message from these actions is clear: illicit operators relying on crypto-enabled deception face growing, coordinated consequences across jurisdictions.

Source: U.S. Department of Justice Criminal Division; FBI; Europol

TLDR:

• Bitcoin is trading at $75,821, recording a 3.97% weekly decline amid growing on-chain resistance pressure.
• The STH Realized Price at $79,300 reflects the average cost basis of holders active within the last 155 days.
• A sustained close above $80,000 could signal the end of Bitcoin’s corrective phase since October 2025.
• Rejection at current resistance levels may trigger a break-even flush, pushing BTC toward the $65,000 floor.

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Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price has emerged as a decisive on-chain metric shaping the current market cycle. At press time, BTC is trading at $75,821.93, recording a 0.62% drop over 24 hours.

The seven-day decline stands at 3.97%, with a trading volume of $42.7 billion. With the STH Realized Price sitting near $79,300, Bitcoin now faces a critical test that could determine its next major directional move.

STH Realized Price Acts as a Key Resistance Wall

The STH Realized Price tracks the average cost basis of investors who purchased Bitcoin within the last 155 days. These are largely newer market participants and are typically more sensitive to price swings. When Bitcoin trades below this level, most short-term holders are sitting at a loss.

Crypto analyst Ali Charts posted on X on April 29, 2026, explaining the dynamics clearly. “When Bitcoin drops below this level, it typically enters a corrective phase,” the analyst wrote. “Short-term holders, sensitive to volatility, often feel forced to sell to avoid further losses.”

This selling behavior creates a feedback loop that adds further downward pressure on price. Each wave of panic exits reinforces the next, making recovery harder without a strong catalyst. Since October 2025, Bitcoin has largely traded below this metric, marking a prolonged corrective stretch.

That trend now puts the STH Realized Price at roughly $79,300 as a primary resistance barrier. With Bitcoin currently below that level, bulls need a strong push above $80,000 to shift the narrative. A sustained close above that zone would indicate the correction has run its course.

A Breakout Above $80,000 Could Flip the Market Structure

The mechanics of the STH Realized Price work both ways. When Bitcoin climbs above the metric, short-term holders move from loss to profit.

That shift changes their behavioral incentive from selling to holding or accumulating more. As Ali Charts noted, holders “are incentivized to hold or even add to their positions to maximize profits.”

This psychological shift is what often triggers a broader macro trend reversal. Buyers gain confidence, selling pressure eases, and momentum builds organically from the inside out. The $80,000 level, therefore, carries both technical and behavioral weight.

However, the current setup remains fragile. A rejection at the STH Realized Price could trigger what analysts describe as a break-even flush.

Short-term holders who bought near the top would exit en masse to cut losses, which then sends Bitcoin lower. That scenario points to a retest of the macro floor around $65,000, according to market data referenced in Ali Charts’ analysis.

For now, the $79,300 to $80,000 range represents the battlefield. Bulls need volume and conviction to clear it. A confirmed close above that band would be the first structural signal that the market has flipped back in favor of a sustained upward trend.

 

TLDR:

• Sodot’s acquisition by MoonPay marks a major step toward scalable institutional crypto key management infrastructure. 
• MoonPay Institutional will use Sodot’s technology stack as its core key management foundation for financial firms. 
• Sodot was built on a zero-compromise approach to security, reliability, and performance for institutional crypto needs. 
• The deal validates the growing demand for dedicated crypto key management as institutional adoption accelerates globally. 

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Sodot, a crypto key management infrastructure company, has announced its acquisition by MoonPay. The deal brings two firms together under a shared goal of serving institutional clients.

Sodot’s technology will form the key management foundation of MoonPay Institutional, a new unit targeting financial institutions, asset managers, trading firms, and exchanges.

Both companies cite aligned values and a mutual drive to build foundational digital asset infrastructure at greater scale.

Sodot Built for a Changing Crypto Landscape

Sodot was founded three years ago to address a growing gap in crypto infrastructure. The team recognized early that institutional adoption was shifting from a talking point to a pressing reality.

Financial institutions, global asset managers, and regulated fintechs needed infrastructure that met strict operational and security standards. Sodot was designed to meet exactly those requirements from the start.

The company’s founding principle was straightforward: zero compromises on security, reliability, and performance.

Over time, that principle shaped a broader belief that crypto deserves its own dedicated key management company.

The team understood that protecting keys in crypto carries immediate and serious consequences when handled incorrectly. That awareness drove every product and infrastructure decision the company made.

Modern custody has grown more complex, requiring operations across multiple exchanges, liquidity venues, and vendors. Hundreds of keys and credentials are now used continuously by automated systems in institutional settings.

Managing that at scale is one of the defining infrastructure challenges in digital assets today. Sodot positioned itself to solve that challenge directly.

The company’s growth reflected the broader market shift toward institutional participation. Customers trusted Sodot with a sensitive and critical part of their business operations.

That trust, according to the team, remains the company’s biggest source of motivation. It also became a key factor in the decision to seek a larger stage.

MoonPay Acquisition Opens a Larger Platform for Sodot’s Technology

The acquisition gives Sodot access to greater scale and a wider market reach. MoonPay’s platform serves a large and growing base of users across global markets.

Adding Sodot’s key management infrastructure strengthens MoonPay’s ability to serve institutional clients. The combination positions both companies to capture demand from a rapidly evolving sector.

MoonPay Institutional will rely on Sodot’s technology stack as its core infrastructure layer. The new business unit is specifically designed for financial institutions, trading firms, and exchanges.

This integration is a clear signal of where institutional crypto markets are heading. It also validates the direction Sodot chose when the company was founded three years ago.

As digital assets become more integrated into traditional finance, key management becomes more critical than ever. Automated and autonomous money movement requires secure, reliable infrastructure at the foundation.

Sodot’s technology addresses that need directly within MoonPay’s expanding ecosystem. Together, the two companies aim to set a new standard for institutional digital asset infrastructure.

The Sodot team acknowledged their investors, employees, and customers in the announcement. Each group played a role in making the acquisition possible.

The company’s commitment to customers remains unchanged going forward. If anything, the team noted, the bar for performance and reliability will only rise.