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Iran eyes Bitcoin linked insurance model for Strait of Hormuz shipping: report

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Iran eyes Bitcoin linked insurance model for Strait of Hormuz shipping: report

Iran has reportedly explored an insurance-based system for ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, while unverified claims about Bitcoin-linked payments have added fresh uncertainty around how the wartime transit regime could operate.

Summary

  • Iran has reportedly explored an insurance system for ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, with speculation emerging around possible Bitcoin-based payments.
  • Fars News denied reports that Tehran is already collecting crypto tolls, even as shipping firms face scam messages demanding Bitcoin or USDT for safe passage.
  • U.S. authorities recently froze $344 million in USDT tied to Iran, fueling fresh debate over whether Bitcoin could become a preferred settlement tool under sanctions.

According to Iran’s state-linked Fars News Agency, the Iranian Ministry of Economic Affairs has proposed managing traffic through the Strait using a formal insurance framework tied to marine transit and financial responsibility certificates. Fars, which said it obtained a state document outlining the proposal, reported that the system could generate more than $10 billion in revenue for Tehran.

Set against the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, the proposal comes as commercial shipping through the Strait remains heavily disrupted. Roughly one-fifth of global oil trade normally passes through the narrow waterway, though multiple reports have stated that ship movement has slowed since U.S. airstrikes on Iran began in late February.

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At the center of the latest speculation is a website called “Hormuz Safe,” which circulated online through screenshots advertising “Secure Digital Insurance for Maritime Cargo.” Several crypto-focused reports claimed the platform was linked to an Iranian effort to collect insurance payments in Bitcoin, although the site was inaccessible at the time of writing, and no official confirmation has emerged from Iranian authorities.

Iran denies active crypto toll collection

Last month, Fars News had separately rejected reports claiming Tehran was already collecting Strait of Hormuz transit tolls in cryptocurrency. In an Apr. 23 report, the outlet said allegations about Iran accepting Bitcoin or stablecoins from passing vessels were “inaccurate.”

At nearly the same time, the Financial Times reported that Iran had been considering a system under which oil tankers would pay transit fees in cryptocurrency, with negotiations allegedly starting near $1 per barrel of crude. Bloomberg later reported that an intermediary linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had discussed similar pricing during talks involving maritime operators.

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Risk advisory firm MARISKS also warned that scammers were exploiting the uncertainty. According to the company, shipowners stranded west of the Strait received fraudulent messages from unknown actors pretending to represent Iranian authorities and demanding payment in Bitcoin or Tether for “clearance” and safe passage.

MARISKS said the messages were fake and warned that they did not originate from official Iranian channels. The firm added that at least one vessel may have come under fire while attempting to leave the area after engaging with the fraudulent communications.

Meanwhile, previous media reports have suggested Iran already collected its first revenue from wartime shipping tolls last month, although those claims remain disputed. Before the current conflict, no such toll system had existed for vessels crossing the Strait.

Bitcoin speculation grows after USDT seizures

Attention around possible Bitcoin payments intensified after U.S. authorities froze $344 million in Tether USDt tied to Iran last month. Earlier reports had claimed that Iranian-linked operators preferred USDT and the Chinese yuan for energy-related settlements, while also accepting Bitcoin in some cases.

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Chainalysis noted in previous analysis that Iran has historically relied on dollar-backed stablecoins, particularly USDT on the Tron blockchain, to move funds outside traditional financial rails. The blockchain analytics firm said any future crypto-linked toll structure in Hormuz could create new compliance risks for virtual asset service providers interacting with sanctioned entities.

Industry figures have also argued that Bitcoin may appeal more to sanctioned states because it operates without a centralized issuer capable of freezing balances. Earlier in April, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union reportedly told media outlets that certain ships could continue passing through the Strait if they paid a tariff of $1 per barrel in Bitcoin.

Vessels would reportedly receive payment instructions only after Iranian authorities completed internal reviews, with transactions expected to be settled within seconds to avoid tracing or confiscation under sanctions enforcement.

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Kraken Cuts 150 Staff, Citing Rising AI Use

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Kraken Cuts 150 Staff, Citing Rising AI Use

Crypto exchange Kraken has reportedly laid off some of its staff as a cost-cutting measure, which could delay its planned initial public offering in the US until next year.

The company, whose corporate name is Payward, laid off about 150 workers due to efficiencies from deploying artificial intelligence across the business, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing a person familiar with the matter.

The person said AI is being used more extensively throughout Kraken, but the company is not planning further job cuts at the moment.

Crypto-related companies have cut more than 5,000 jobs so far this year, with many citing increased efficiencies from AI as a reason for the layoffs. Block Inc. undertook the biggest round of layoffs by a crypto company so far in 2026, cutting 4,000 staff or about half its workforce in February in an AI-driven cutback.

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A decline in crypto prices since late last year has also stung public crypto companies’ balance sheets, with many reporting losses in their first-quarter earnings.

Kraken’s cuts have reportedly pushed back its plan to go public sometime this year, with the company now eyeing a debut in the US in 2027.

Cointelegraph reached out to Kraken but did not receive an immediate response.

Kraken’s plans to go public have been on and off for months. In November, the company confidentially filed with US regulators to go public before pausing its IPO in March due to a declining crypto market.

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Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi reiterated Kraken’s confidential IPO filing last month when he was asked onstage at a conference whether there were plans to take the company public soon, but he did not share a timeline.

Source: Semafor

Related: How AI became crypto’s favorite reason to cut staff

The layoffs at Kraken come in the same week that crypto data company Dune said it laid off 25% of its workforce, citing a need to restructure its business and focus on its core products.

Coinbase cut 700 employees, or about 14% of its workforce, earlier this month, on May 5, citing an increase in AI use. 

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Rival crypto exchanges Gemini and Crypto.com also laid off 200 and about 180 employees, respectively, earlier this year, both citing the rising use of AI.

Magazine: Guide to the top and emerging global crypto hubs: Mid-2026

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Elon Musk Amplifies Citadel CEO’s Stanford Warning: AI Is After PhD Jobs Now

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Elon Musk Amplifies Citadel CEO’s Stanford Warning: AI Is After PhD Jobs Now

Elon Musk shared a video clip warning that AI now replaces high-skilled finance jobs. The speaker, Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, said agentic systems do PhD-level work in hours.

Griffin made the remarks at Stanford University. He said the AI toolkit has become profoundly more powerful in just nine months, prompting concern about its impact on highly skilled professions.

Citadel’s AI Awakening

Griffin, a longtime AI skeptic, admitted the technology has changed how his hedge fund operates internally. He said work usually done by master’s and PhD holders over weeks or months now takes hours or days.

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The Citadel chief told Stanford students he went home one Friday “fairly depressed” by the change. He said witnessing it inside his own firm marked his first sense of real AI impact at scale.

“These are not mid-tier white-collar jobs. These are extraordinarily high-skilled jobs being automated by agentic AI,” said Ken Griffin, CEO of Citadel.

Historically, Citadel has hired hundreds of quantitative researchers from top mathematics and physics programs. Griffin’s comments suggest AI is now competing for that elite talent pool directly.

The Wider Workforce Story

Citadel’s experience tracks a broader 2026 trend. Tech employers cited AI as the trigger behind thousands of layoffs this year, with agentic systems accounting for a growing share of cuts.

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Musk himself has long argued AI will eliminate most paid work over time. However, not every analyst agrees on the timing.

A recent a16z review of four major studies found AI is not killing jobs at scale yet. Displacement remains concentrated in narrow tasks rather than full occupations across the broader economy.

Crypto-native firms have nonetheless built product roadmaps around agents that trade and settle directly. Coinbase, Microsoft, and other large employers frame recent cuts as a pivot toward smaller, AI-augmented teams.

Whether Griffin’s Friday depression spreads across the finance industry will hinge on how durable the recent productivity leap proves through year-end. Earnings calls in the coming quarter could reveal which firms quantify their AI-driven cost cuts.

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Investors will also be watching whether Citadel itself publicly details how much capacity it has freed up by handing PhD-level work to agents.

The post Elon Musk Amplifies Citadel CEO’s Stanford Warning: AI Is After PhD Jobs Now appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Forsage co-founder pleads not guilty in $340M crypto Ponzi case

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Forsage co-founder pleads not guilty in $340M crypto Ponzi case

A co-founder of the Forsage crypto investment platform has pleaded not guilty in a U.S. federal court after being extradited from Thailand in a case tied to an alleged $340 million Ponzi scheme.

Summary

  • Forsage co-founder Olena Oblamska has pleaded not guilty in a U.S. federal court after being extradited from Thailand.
  • U.S. prosecutors alleged the Forsage crypto platform operated as a $340 million Ponzi scheme that left most investors with losses.
  • Three other founders charged in the 2023 federal indictment remain outside U.S. custody.

According to a notice released by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Oregon, Ukrainian national Olena Oblamska, also known online as “Lola Ferrari,” appeared before a federal court in Portland on May 11 on one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud. Court records show a magistrate judge ordered her to remain in custody ahead of a four-day jury trial scheduled for July 14.

Authorities in Thailand arrested Oblamska in February during a raid on a condominium in Phuket’s Chalong district, the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists reported on Sunday. Thai officers seized phones, computer equipment, documents, an iPad, and a laptop during the operation, according to the report. While Thai authorities did not publicly identify the suspect at the time, ICIJ said the FBI and the U.S. Department of Justice declined to confirm her detention in the months that followed.

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Earlier court filings had described Oblamska as Russian and suggested she may have been hiding in Bali, Indonesia. With her transfer to the United States now completed, she has become the first of four Forsage founders charged in the case to appear in a U.S. courtroom.

Back in February 2023, a federal grand jury in Oregon charged Oblamska alongside Vladimir Okhotnikov, Mikhail Sergeev, and Sergey Maslakov for allegedly operating Forsage as a global Ponzi and pyramid scheme. Prosecutors said the platform collected roughly $340 million from investors after promoting itself as a decentralized investment project running on Ethereum, BNB Smart Chain, and Tron.

Prosecutors say most investors lost money

Court documents filed by the Justice Department alleged that Forsage sold users “slots” through smart contracts that automatically routed incoming funds to earlier participants, which prosecutors described as a classic Ponzi structure. Investigators also accused the founders of building a backdoor into the project’s xGold smart contract to divert user deposits into wallets under their control.

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Blockchain analysis cited in the indictment showed that more than 80% of participants in Forsage’s Ethereum program received less ETH than they deposited, while over half reportedly received no payout at all before the scheme collapsed.

Federal prosecutors also disputed Forsage’s public claims that dozens of users became millionaires through the platform. According to the indictment, only one account controlled by the defendants themselves received more than $1 million in cryptocurrency.

At the same time, the Securities and Exchange Commission pursued a parallel civil case against 11 individuals connected to Forsage in August 2022. The SEC’s complaint targeted the four founders along with several U.S.-based promoters known as the “Crypto Crusaders,” seeking civil penalties and disgorgement.

When the criminal indictment was announced in 2023, U.S. Attorney Natalie Wight said the investigation involved months of work tracing the movement of investor funds across blockchain networks and coordinating with multiple law enforcement agencies.

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Three co-defendants remain outside U.S. custody. Prosecutors identified Vladimir Okhotnikov as the operational leader of Forsage and said he fled to Dubai after the scheme came under investigation. ICIJ reported that a court in Tbilisi sentenced Okhotnikov in absentia to 10 years in prison in 2024 for laundering $1.1 million tied to Forsage proceeds.

Separate reporting from Variety last year also linked Okhotnikov to “Holiguards Saga — The Portal of Force,” a film directed by disgraced actor Kevin Spacey that premiered at a private event in Berlin. Okhotnikov has denied wrongdoing.

If convicted, Oblamska could face up to 20 years in federal prison, along with three years of supervised release and a $250,000 fine. The FBI’s Portland Field Office, the U.S. Secret Service, and Homeland Security Investigations offices in New York and Bangkok are continuing to investigate the case, while the Justice Department has asked Forsage investors who lost money to contact authorities as potential victims.

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Polymarket Crisis, Oracle Risk, and Regulatory Scrutiny: Israel-Hesbollah Ceasefire in Focus

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Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized prediction market, is facing a wave of contested bet resolutions has exposed structural vulnerabilities in its UMA Oracle-based arbitration system. It has triggered user losses, governance failures, and renewed regulatory scrutiny from the CFTC.

The Wall Street Journal investigation crystallizes the problem through a single case: Garrick Wilhelm, a British Columbia resident who placed a $567 bet against an Israel-Hezbollah cease-fire, reasoning the outcome was impossible. He lost, and he regrets signing up at all. That individual story maps onto a systemic failure.

Supposedly, Polymarket does not settle disputed markets through a centralized judge or an independent panel. Instead, it relies on the UMA Optimistic Oracle, a system designed around the assumption that most proposed outcomes are correct and will go unchallenged.

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When a market resolves, a proposed outcome is submitted on-chain. If no dispute is raised within the challenge window, the outcome settles automatically. If a user disputes the result by posting a bond, the question escalates to UMA token holders, who vote on the correct outcome. The winner of that vote determines the final payout.

This is where Oracle risk becomes an operational threat rather than a theoretical one. In March 2025, a Polymarket bet on a Ukraine mineral deal resolved “Yes” despite no signed agreement existing, a result tied, according to on-chain analysis, to a single wallet controlling roughly 25% of UMA voting power.

Critics immediately labeled this a governance attack: a concentrated token holder with direct financial exposure to the outcome effectively determined the resolution.

Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with

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Polymarket CFTC and SEC Exposure: How Disputed Resolutions Map to Existing Enforcement Frameworks

Polymarket already operates under a 2022 CFTC consent order that forced it to block U.S. users after the regulator determined the platform was offering illegal binary options contracts. The current dispute wave reopens it with additional evidence.

Prediction markets with real-money payouts sit in contested regulatory territory. The CFTC exercises jurisdiction over commodity derivatives, including event contracts and binary options; the SEC’s securities framework may apply if a market’s payout structure resembles a financial instrument.

Ongoing congressional efforts to clarify CFTC and SEC jurisdictional boundaries have not resolved where decentralized prediction markets land, which means enforcement remains the primary mechanism for establishing that boundary.

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Discover: The best pre-launch token sales

The post Polymarket Crisis, Oracle Risk, and Regulatory Scrutiny: Israel-Hesbollah Ceasefire in Focus appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Why is the crypto market going down today (May 18)

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Why is crypto market crashing today? (March 19)

The crypto market remained under heavy pressure on Monday as escalating geopolitical tensions, surging oil prices, sticky U.S. inflation data, and a massive wave of leveraged liquidations weakened investor sentiment across digital assets.

Summary

  • The total crypto market capitalization fell 3.8% to $2.56 trillion as Bitcoin dropped below $77,000 amid rising macroeconomic and geopolitical pressure.
  • More than $661 million in crypto positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with nearly 95% of the wipeout coming from bullish long trades.
  • WTI crude climbed above $107 while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $1 billion in weekly outflows as stalled U.S.-Iran talks and sticky inflation weakened risk appetite.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization fell roughly 3.8% over the past 24 hours to around $2.56 trillion, while Bitcoin (BTC) dropped more than 4% to fall below the key $77,000 support level and hit a multi-week low before recovering slightly at press time.

Ethereum (ETH) declined nearly 6% toward the $2,100 region, while major altcoins, including Solana (SOL), XRP (XRP), BNB (BNB), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Hyperliquid (HYPE), posted losses ranging between 5% and 12%.

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According to CoinGlass data, more than $670 million worth of crypto positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with bullish long positions accounting for nearly 95% of the wipeout.

The latest market decline accelerated after investors reacted to another round of hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data.

Recent Producer Price Index data surged 6% year-over-year following a stronger-than-expected Consumer Price Index reading of 3.8%, reinforcing fears that inflation remains stubbornly elevated across the U.S. economy.

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The stronger inflation readings significantly reduced expectations for short-term Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Instead, traders have increasingly started pricing in the possibility that rates could remain elevated for longer or potentially rise further if inflationary pressures continue intensifying.

At the same time, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed from around 4.5% to 4.6%, increasing the attractiveness of safer fixed-income assets relative to speculative investments such as cryptocurrencies.

Higher yields and tighter monetary conditions typically reduce liquidity across financial markets, often leading investors to scale back exposure to high-risk assets, including Bitcoin and altcoins.

Oil prices extend gains as Iran negotiations hit deadlock

Investor sentiment also deteriorated as geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran continued escalating.

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WTI crude futures climbed above $107 per barrel on Monday, extending last week’s gains of more than 9%, while Brent crude traded in the $105–$113 range as stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks and the continued near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz raised fears of a broader global supply disruption.

In a Truth Social post on Sunday, President Donald Trump warned that “the clock is ticking” for Iran and urged Tehran to “get moving, FAST,” while Iranian media reports suggested negotiations remain deeply divided with the U.S. offering “no tangible concessions.”

Rising oil prices intensified concerns that energy-driven inflation could delay potential monetary easing from central banks and further weaken appetite for speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin ETF outflows and liquidations accelerate selloff

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s breakdown below major psychological support zones near $80,000 and $78,000 triggered a cascade of automated liquidations across leveraged derivatives markets.

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The sharp decline forced exchanges to close large volumes of overleveraged bullish positions, accelerating downside momentum as stop-loss orders continued getting triggered across the broader market.

Institutional flows also weakened considerably over the past week.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $1 billion in cumulative net outflows, ending a strong multi-week inflow streak that had previously supported bullish market momentum. Spot Ethereum ETFs also extended their recent streak of outflows, signaling weakening institutional demand across the broader crypto sector.

On-chain data additionally showed that Bitcoin miners sold roughly 800 BTC worth approximately $64 million to secure profits amid deteriorating market conditions.

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At the same time, investor sentiment faced additional pressure after Michael Saylor-led Strategy disclosed risks tied to potentially selling Bitcoin to help manage convertible note obligations, further adding to near-term uncertainty surrounding corporate BTC demand.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Iran Reportedly Mulls Strait of Hormuz Toll Platform Paid in Bitcoin

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Iran Reportedly Mulls Strait of Hormuz Toll Platform Paid in Bitcoin

Iran is reportedly considering a plan to exercise control over the Strait of Hormuz through an “insurance-based model,” with some speculating, based on an unverified website, that it could be paid in Bitcoin. 

On Saturday, Fars News Agency, an Iranian news outlet closely affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported that the Iranian Ministry of Economic Affairs plans to manage the Strait of Hormuz through insurance, citing a state document it obtained. 

However, other reports say Iran is looking to take payments for the “insurance” in Bitcoin through a website called “Hormuz Safe,” with a widely circulated screenshot of the purported site selling “Secure Digital Insurance for Maritime Cargo.”

Source: Dennis Porter

Control over the Strait of Hormuz has been the leading issue in the US-Iran war. The shipping lane handles about one-fifth of the global oil trade. Many ships have been prevented from transiting the strait after the US started launching airstrikes in Iran in late February. 

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Media reports state that Iran collected its first revenue from tolls imposed on ships transiting the Strait last month. Prior to the US-Iran war, no such measures were in place.

Fars News said the insurance platform seeks to distinguish between transit vessels from different countries. 

“Under the Economy Ministry’s plan, managing the Strait through an insurance framework would enable the issuance of various marine insurance policies as well as certificates of financial responsibility,” Fars News said, adding it could generate over $10 billion in revenue for the country.

There is no guarantee that Iran will go ahead with the insurance proposal, and the website purporting to offer “Iranian Digital Insurance” could be fake. The website was down at the time of writing. 

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Scammers have previously defrauded shipping companies operating in the Strait of Hormuz by demanding payment in cryptocurrency for safe passage. 

Description of Hormuz Safe seeking to accept shipper tolls in Bitcoin. Source: Google

US authorities recently seized Iranian USDT

Demanding insurance payments in Bitcoin could make sense, given that US authorities froze $344 million worth of USDT tied to Iran last month.

Earlier reports said Iran had been accepting oil tolls in US dollar-denominated stablecoins such as Tether USDt (USDT), as well as Bitcoin and fiat currencies such as the Chinese yuan, with USDT reportedly the preferred cryptocurrency. 

Related: UAE investors buy AI dip, keep crypto exposure despite conflict 

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Industry leaders have touted Bitcoin as a more appropriate cryptocurrency for sanctioned countries because it is sufficiently decentralized and has no issuer capable of freezing funds. 

In early April, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union said certain ships would be able to pass through the strait provided that they pay a tariff of $1 per barrel of oil in Bitcoin.

“Once the email arrives and Iran completes its assessment, vessels are given a few seconds to pay in Bitcoin, ensuring they can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions,” they said at the time.

Magazine: Adam Back says current demand is ‘almost’ enough to send Bitcoin to $1M

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Tom Lee Says Oil Prices Are Ethereum’s Biggest Headwind

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Tom Lee Says Oil Prices Are Ethereum’s Biggest Headwind

Rising oil prices since the US-Israeli war have been a consistent weight on the price of Ether for the last three months, according to Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee. 

“If one is wondering why Ethereum has been under selling pressure … to me, rising oil prices is the biggest headwind,” Lee said on X on Monday.

Lee said the inverse correlation between Ether prices and oil is at a record high. Crude oil prices have surged 66% from $65 to more than $100 per barrel since the US-Israeli war began on Feb. 28. 

They spiked again on Monday, with WTI hitting $108 and Brent crude tapping $111, after US President Donald Trump said on Sunday on Truth Social, “the clock is ticking” for Iran to make a deal on opening the Strait of Hormuz. 

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A prolonged war between the US and Iran could weigh further on Ether, which has mostly traded sideways during the period of conflict. The sell-off accelerated over the past week, with the asset declining nearly 10% and falling back to $2,100 Monday, down 57% from its all-time high. 

Ether and oil inverse correlation at a record high. Source: Fundstrat 

Fall in oil prices will spell ETH recovery 

Lee said a reversal in oil prices would result in ETH prices recovering, describing the current situation as “short-term tactical noise.”

He said the bigger drivers for Ether are tokenization and agentic AI. “These structural drivers are in place. Thus, we expect ETH prices to be stronger as we move through 2026.”

Related: Ethereum Foundation hits ‘Glamsterdam’ milestones, names new protocol leads

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Ethereum has been the dominant network for real-world asset tokenization, with more than 60% market share when layer-2 networks are included. Meanwhile, major financial institutions such as BlackRock and JPMorgan recently launched tokenized funds on Ethereum. 

The agentic AI narrative stems from the prediction that AI payment agents cannot access bank accounts, so they will use crypto tokens such as ETH or stablecoins for payments. 

Ether prices are facing multi-factor pressure 

However, Ether is also under pressure from other macroeconomic headwinds, as its correlation with risk assets means it gets hit harder during sell-offs. 

Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at the Bitrue Research Institute, told Cointelegraph on Monday that oil prices were not the only factor impacting Ether, and there was “multi-factor pressure.”

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“They’re one key macro headwind, but ETH selling pressure is also driven by ETF outflows, rising exchange reserves/whale selling, broader risk-off sentiment, and ETH’s underperformance vs Bitcoin,” he said.

Related: ETH stalls at $2.4K five times, SOL to rally to $120: Market Moves

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NYDIG Senate crypto bill risks post-midterms if Aug deadline missed

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Crypto Breaking News

The US Senate’s crypto market structure bill remains uncertain as lawmakers navigate a congested calendar and a polarized chamber. With a July target repeatedly cited but not guaranteed, political dynamics—and the timing of midterm elections—could determine whether the measure reaches the president’s desk this year or slips into a post-election session.

In a Friday note, Greg Cipolaro, head of research at NYDIG, cautioned that while July 4 has been floated as a milestone, the practical window for passage may run from June through early August. If the bill misses that window, the path to enactment could extend into a post‑election lame-duck session, or fade entirely depending on which party controls the Senate after November.

Key takeaways

  • The crypto market structure bill cleared a long-delayed markup in the Senate Banking Committee and moves to the floor, but it requires 60 votes to pass, highlighting persistent partisan headwinds.
  • Republicans hold a 53-seat Senate majority and would need cooperation from at least seven Democrats to fast-track passage; some Democrats remain concerned the measure doesn’t sufficiently curb crime or sanctions evasion.
  • Passage would bring notable regulatory clarity, including treating Bitcoin as a commodity under the CFTC, which could unlock institutional participation by reducing legal uncertainty.
  • Failure to advance could leave crypto markets operating under ongoing regulatory ambiguity, with the potential for a post-election lame-duck session depending on election outcomes and scheduling priorities.

Legislative momentum and the timing puzzle

The bill’s journey reflects the broader frictions in shaping US crypto regulation this year. After delays shaped by debates over stablecoins, DeFi enforcement, and the ethics framework for government officials’ use of crypto, the measure finally cleared the Senate Banking Committee in a largely party-line vote. It now awaits a floor vote, where it would need broad cross‑bench support to reach the 60-vote threshold required to avoid protracted debate.

If the Senate cannot align sufficient support before the August recess, lawmakers face a tightening calendar ahead of the midterms. Cipolaro described the timing as an aspirational benchmark rather than a fixed deadline, noting that the practical window could shrink to a June-to-August stretch. A protracted delay would raise the odds of a post‑election lame‑duck session, particularly if Republicans retain control of the chamber and Majority Leader John Thune prioritizes other legislative business, such as government funding.

These timing questions are embedded in a broader political context. Current polling portrays a tight race for Senate control, with forecasts split on which party will command the chamber. The outcome of those races could shape not only this bill’s fate but the broader regulatory environment for digital assets in the next Congress. If Democrats gain control, the fate of the current Republican‑backed framework could become uncertain as negotiations reset in January.

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“Congressional negotiators face a tradeoff between accepting an imperfect bipartisan framework in 2026 versus risking a substantially different legislative environment after the midterms.”

What passage would mean for markets and regulation

Supporters argue that final passage would provide critical regulatory clarity at a time when traditional financial institutions have shown renewed interest in crypto. By clarifying the treatment of Bitcoin as a commodity under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the bill would close what one analyst described as the last major regulatory overhang for Bitcoin as an institutional asset class. In practical terms, regulated clarity can reduce compliance risk for asset managers, exchanges, and custodians looking to participate in crypto markets.

Beyond Bitcoin, the bill’s broader framework aims to define how US watchdogs regulate crypto activity, with attention to market structure, stablecoins, and the interaction between traditional securities laws and digital assets. Yet even as it advances, questions linger about provisions related to ethics, enforcement in decentralized finance, and other guardrails that some lawmakers fear may not be robust enough to deter crime or sanctions evasion.

Analysts warn that even with regulatory clarity, the path forward is not guaranteed. A narrowly tailored framework that fails to gain bipartisan buy-in could keep the industry navigating “permanent jurisdictional ambiguity,” as Cipolaro put it. In that scenario, investors and builders would face ongoing uncertainty about how specific activities—ranging from stablecoin issuance to DeFi protocols—will be treated under law, complicating long‑term planning and capital deployment.

Contextual backdrop: regulatory appetite and election dynamics

The current political environment amplifies the stakes. With midterm elections looming, both chambers and leaderships are recalibrating priorities, and any highly technical bill faces sharper scrutiny under the pressure of time. The likelihood of a fast, clean passage depends not only on the technical merit of the provisions but also on how aggressively lawmakers are willing to address concerns around crime prevention, sanctions compliance, and the governance of decentralized platforms.

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Industry watchers are watching closely how the regulatory narrative evolves in the near term. If pre‑midterm progress stalls, attention will shift to the post‑election timetable and the possibility that a new Congress could reshape or even overturn portions of the current framework. That fork in the road—between timely clarity and potential overhaul—has practical implications for who participates in crypto markets and on what terms.

As coverage around this evolving policy space continues, readers should also weigh related analyses and commentary on the debates surrounding the act, including perspectives on how a final framework would interact with existing securities and commodities rules. For context, expert commentary and prior reporting have highlighted the challenging balance lawmakers face between fostering innovation and ensuring robust safeguards.

In the broader industry conversation, the question remains: what regulatory architecture will most effectively enable legitimate participation while resisting exploitation? If the bill advances, investors and institutions could gain confidence from a clearer, more predictable path forward. If it stalls, the market may endure another cycle of uncertainty as actors await the next regulatory signal.

Related coverage in the crypto policy space has underscored the debates around the bill’s scope and enforcement. For readers seeking deeper dives, cross‑referenced analyses and coverage frame the ongoing negotiations, including discussions about how the act intersects with prior work on crypto clarity and DeFi governance.

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What remains most uncertain is not only whether the bill will pass in this Congress, but also how the eventual shape of any final law will influence institutional participation, innovation, and the broader perception of crypto regulation in the United States.

Readers should watch the upcoming floor vote timing, any last‑minute amendments, and the election results that could redefine the political calculus. These factors will determine whether the bill becomes a milestone for regulatory clarity or a symbol of continued regulatory ambiguity in the US crypto markets.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Crypto security is turning into an AI arms race as agents may overwhelm compliance teams

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Crypto analytics firm Elliptic lands $120 million as AI reshapes blockchain compliance


AI agents and automated payments could reach a scale that crypto monitoring systems built for human-paced markets cannot handle, Elliptic CEO Simone Maini warned.

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Bitcoin Depot, North America's largest bitcoin ATM operator, files for bankruptcy

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Bitcoin Depot, North America's largest bitcoin ATM operator, files for bankruptcy


Bitcoin Depot, the largest bitcoin ATM operator in North America and publicly listed on Nasdaq, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

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