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Iran’s $7.8B Crypto Shadow Economy Just Got a Lot More Interesting

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Crypto Breaking News

While the world watches missiles fly over Iran, there’s a parallel war happening on-chain.

And it’s been running quietly for years.

Iran legalized Bitcoin mining back in 2019. The deal? Licensed operators get subsidized electricity, and mined BTC goes straight to the central bank. The government then uses it to pay for imports, machinery, fuel, consumer goods, without touching a single U.S.-controlled bank.

Clean. Borderless. Almost invisible.

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The numbers are staggering. Chainalysis clocked Iran’s crypto ecosystem at $7.78 billion in 2025, bigger than the GDP of the Maldives, and growing faster than the year before.

This isn’t a fringe workaround. It’s infrastructure.

The IRGC doesn’t just participate, It dominates

IRGC-linked addresses accounted for more than 50% of total Iranian crypto inflows in Q4 2025, with over $3 billion received last year. And those are only the wallets we know about — the ones already flagged on sanctions lists. The real number is almost certainly bigger.

The U.S. Treasury has since sanctioned two UK-registered crypto exchanges — Zedcex and Zedxion — for facilitating IRGC transactions. One of them processed over $94 billion in transactions since 2022. Let that sink in.

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Stablecoins are the other half of the equation

Iran’s central bank accumulated at least $507M in USDT, purchased systematically through a network of around 50 crypto wallets — while the rial hit a historic low of 1.47 million per dollar and inflation hit 42.5%. The stablecoin play wasn’t saving the rial. It was replacing it.

Meanwhile, Iran’s defense export center Mindex now openly accepts crypto for weapons exports. Missiles. Aircraft. Tanks. Ships. The website lists “the cryptocurrency agreed upon in the contract” as an accepted payment method.

This is no longer just sanctions evasion. It’s a parallel economy with its own rails.

Then things got messy

In June 2025, Nobitex — Iran’s largest crypto exchange with over 11 million users — was hit by a $90M cyberattack attributed to Israel-linked group Predatory Sparrow. The attackers didn’t cash out. They moved the funds to vanity wallet addresses referencing the IRGC, ensuring the money stayed permanently frozen. This was financial warfare, not theft.

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The fallout was immediate. Inbound transactions to Nobitex dropped 70% year-on-year. June saw a 50% contraction in crypto flows compared to the previous year. July slumped 76%.

Then Tether piled on. In July 2025, Tether executed its largest-ever freeze of Iranian-linked funds, blocking 42 crypto addresses, over half of which were heavily tied to Nobitex.

Iran’s response? The central bank imposed overnight trading restrictions, limiting exchange operating hours to between 10AM and 8PM. When the financial system cracks, the first instinct is control.

But here’s what makes this story bigger than sanctions

Iran’s IRGC-linked mining operations have been drawing colossal amounts of power at heavily subsidized rates — effectively stealing electricity from the national grid. The cost of power outages to Iran’s economy is estimated at over $25 billion annually. Ordinary Iranians sit in the dark while the regime mines Bitcoin.

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And yet — those same Iranians also use crypto to survive. For most people in Iran, crypto is primarily about access. Hedging against 40%+ inflation. Moving savings before the rial loses another 20%. Getting money out during internet blackouts.

Around 22% of the Iranian population now uses cryptocurrencies. Not for speculation. For survival.

So what happens now?

Fresh U.S. and Israeli strikes are targeting the infrastructure that keeps all of this running. Power grids. Mining operations. Financial nodes. The same system the regime uses to fund weapons exports is the same system ordinary Iranians use to protect their savings.

That dual reality, state weapon AND civilian lifeline, is what makes this situation unlike anywhere else in the world.

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The conflict isn’t just military. It’s financial. And it’s playing out on a public blockchain, for anyone paying attention.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Crypto World

xAI Moves to Retire $3B Debt Early as Musk Advances the Planned SpaceX IPO

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR

  • xAI plans to repay $3 billion in high-yield bonds earlier than expected to reduce debt before major corporate steps.
  • The company will redeem the bonds at $117 on the, which reflects recent price movement.
  • Early repayment may trigger penalty costs because the bonds were expected to remain outstanding for two years.
  • Musk merged xAI and X under one structure while working to simplify debt across his companies.
  • Lenders were informed that both X and xAI debt will be repaid, although funding sources were not disclosed.

xAI will retire $3 billion of bonds early as the company reshapes its debt, and SpaceX prepares for a public listing, and lenders track rapid changes across Musk’s merged businesses.

Early Bond Repayment by xAI

xAI will repay the bonds at 117 cents as pricing data shows the debt rising toward that level. The move follows June’s bond sale that featured a coupon of 12.5 percent.

The redemption comes even though the structure suggested a longer timeline before repayment. The step underlines efforts to simplify obligations before further corporate actions.

Bank sources say early repayment usually triggers charges tied to make-whole terms, and xAI may incur such costs. They also state, “The process continues without disclosure of funding sources.”

Trace data shows the bonds climbed about three points on Monday to near 117 cents. The shift reflects rising expectations of an early call.

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Debt Strategy and Business Consolidation

Musk merged xAI with SpaceX under a single holding entity last year. The group now carries about $18 billion of combined obligations.

Lenders say repayment plans also cover debt tied to X, formerly Twitter. They add that Morgan Stanley told them repayment will proceed as arranged.

X borrowed about $12.5 billion during Musk’s takeover, while xAI raised $5 billion through loans and bonds. Both moved under xAI Holdings after restructuring.

xAI revised its debt documents to restrict asset transfers and set a ceiling for future secured borrowing. Those provisions protect collateral for lenders.

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SpaceX Prepares for IPO Filing

SpaceX may file confidentially for an IPO this month, according to sources. They say valuation targets exceed $1.75 trillion.

The company has not accessed bond markets, unlike X and xAI, which faced heavy servicing costs. X paid large monthly interest amounts, while xAI used cash rapidly.

SpaceX bought xAI last month and intends to expand data center capacity. The combined business holds a valuation of about $1.25 trillion.

People familiar with the matter say Musk plans to advance the offering timeline. They also report ongoing financing work tied to debt reduction.

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Morgan Stanley declined to comment when contacted. Representatives for X and xAI did not respond to requests for comment.

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Iran Crypto Outflows Rose 700% After US-Israel Attack

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Iran Crypto Outflows Rose 700% After US-Israel Attack

Iran’s top crypto exchange saw a significant spike in crypto withdrawals within minutes of the US and Israel launching strikes in Tehran on Saturday. However, a widespread internet outage curbed additional outflows.

In a post on Monday, Elliptic said crypto outflows from the Nobitex exchange surged by more than 700% to over $500,000 within minutes of the first airstrikes, with a chart showing that outflows reached nearly $3 million in a single hour later that day. 

Crypto outflows on Nobitex from late February to March 1. Source: Elliptic

Elliptic said the sharp rise in outflows “potentially represents capital flight from Iran,” with its initial tracing showing that many of those funds were sent to foreign crypto exchanges.

“This allows funds to be moved out of Iran while avoiding some of the scrutiny of the global banking system,” Elliptic said.

However, crypto outflows from Nobitex fell sharply after Saturday, which fellow crypto forensics platform TRM Labs attributed to the Iranian regime enforcing strict internet blackouts.

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Iran’s internet connectivity reportedly fell by approximately 99% shortly after the conflict unfolded, TRM noted.

TRM also opposed Elliptic’s conclusion that capital flight is leaving Iran, stating:

“It appears that the country’s crypto ecosystem is not showing signs of acceleration or capital flight, but instead experiencing a downturn in both transactions and volume as the regime enforces strict internet blackouts.”

The crypto outflows come as the US and Israel seek to topple the current Iranian regime and wipe out its nuclear and missile programs. Iran responded with airstrikes of its own on neighboring countries, creating further instability in the region.