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Iran’s $7.8B Crypto Shadow Economy Just Got a Lot More Interesting

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Crypto Breaking News

While the world watches missiles fly over Iran, there’s a parallel war happening on-chain.

And it’s been running quietly for years.

Iran legalized Bitcoin mining back in 2019. The deal? Licensed operators get subsidized electricity, and mined BTC goes straight to the central bank. The government then uses it to pay for imports, machinery, fuel, consumer goods, without touching a single U.S.-controlled bank.

Clean. Borderless. Almost invisible.

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The numbers are staggering. Chainalysis clocked Iran’s crypto ecosystem at $7.78 billion in 2025, bigger than the GDP of the Maldives, and growing faster than the year before.

This isn’t a fringe workaround. It’s infrastructure.

The IRGC doesn’t just participate, It dominates

IRGC-linked addresses accounted for more than 50% of total Iranian crypto inflows in Q4 2025, with over $3 billion received last year. And those are only the wallets we know about — the ones already flagged on sanctions lists. The real number is almost certainly bigger.

The U.S. Treasury has since sanctioned two UK-registered crypto exchanges — Zedcex and Zedxion — for facilitating IRGC transactions. One of them processed over $94 billion in transactions since 2022. Let that sink in.

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Stablecoins are the other half of the equation

Iran’s central bank accumulated at least $507M in USDT, purchased systematically through a network of around 50 crypto wallets — while the rial hit a historic low of 1.47 million per dollar and inflation hit 42.5%. The stablecoin play wasn’t saving the rial. It was replacing it.

Meanwhile, Iran’s defense export center Mindex now openly accepts crypto for weapons exports. Missiles. Aircraft. Tanks. Ships. The website lists “the cryptocurrency agreed upon in the contract” as an accepted payment method.

This is no longer just sanctions evasion. It’s a parallel economy with its own rails.

Then things got messy

In June 2025, Nobitex — Iran’s largest crypto exchange with over 11 million users — was hit by a $90M cyberattack attributed to Israel-linked group Predatory Sparrow. The attackers didn’t cash out. They moved the funds to vanity wallet addresses referencing the IRGC, ensuring the money stayed permanently frozen. This was financial warfare, not theft.

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The fallout was immediate. Inbound transactions to Nobitex dropped 70% year-on-year. June saw a 50% contraction in crypto flows compared to the previous year. July slumped 76%.

Then Tether piled on. In July 2025, Tether executed its largest-ever freeze of Iranian-linked funds, blocking 42 crypto addresses, over half of which were heavily tied to Nobitex.

Iran’s response? The central bank imposed overnight trading restrictions, limiting exchange operating hours to between 10AM and 8PM. When the financial system cracks, the first instinct is control.

But here’s what makes this story bigger than sanctions

Iran’s IRGC-linked mining operations have been drawing colossal amounts of power at heavily subsidized rates — effectively stealing electricity from the national grid. The cost of power outages to Iran’s economy is estimated at over $25 billion annually. Ordinary Iranians sit in the dark while the regime mines Bitcoin.

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And yet — those same Iranians also use crypto to survive. For most people in Iran, crypto is primarily about access. Hedging against 40%+ inflation. Moving savings before the rial loses another 20%. Getting money out during internet blackouts.

Around 22% of the Iranian population now uses cryptocurrencies. Not for speculation. For survival.

So what happens now?

Fresh U.S. and Israeli strikes are targeting the infrastructure that keeps all of this running. Power grids. Mining operations. Financial nodes. The same system the regime uses to fund weapons exports is the same system ordinary Iranians use to protect their savings.

That dual reality, state weapon AND civilian lifeline, is what makes this situation unlike anywhere else in the world.

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The conflict isn’t just military. It’s financial. And it’s playing out on a public blockchain, for anyone paying attention.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Crypto World

Ansem Says Ethereum Is in a Worse Spot Than 2023 as Thesis Weakens

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Ethereum Price Prediction

Crypto analyst Ansem argues that Ethereum (ETH) is in a “worse spot” in 2026 than it was in 2023, pointing to a thesis he says has been eroding for years.

His bearish take drew rebuttals from some members of the community. Meanwhile, on-chain activity and technical indicators elsewhere on the network flash bullish signals.

Ansem Lists Cracks in the ETH Thesis

Ansem argues that Solana (SOL) has dominated retail activity this cycle. Hyperliquid has taken the lead in perpetual futures trading, while rollups have failed to gain traction.

He also noted that Vitalik Buterin “publicly abandoned” the general-use rollup thesis. The ongoing Aave (AAVE) situation around the KelpDAO rsETH exploit, Ansem said, is a mark on  Ethereum’s core value proposition of “safety + security of defi & insto interest.

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“ETH thesis has been weakening consistently for years,” the analyst wrote. ETH in 2026 is in a worse spot than it was in 2023, amplified by AI doing extremely well & tech stocks being much more favorable investments with real revenues / emerging narratives / increasing momentum, ETH is a $300B asset with a ton of overhang from Tom Lee topblasting + complacent ETH holders sitting idle in defi protocols.”

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Technically, the analyst noted that ETH remains in a sustained downtrend after failing to break multi-year resistance. He projected that the second-largest cryptocurrency could slip to 2025 lows near $1,300 and to the bear-market lows from 2022.

“Tight invalidation 2377 assuming problems worsen if you want to play it loose assuming other risk assets continues doing well & drags it up probably somewhere around 2700/2800 invalidation fundamentals wise would want to see breakout activity from some new vertical,” the post read.

Ethereum Price Prediction
Ethereum Price Prediction. Source: X/Ansem

Community Members Push Back

The take triggered notable pushback. Ryan Berckmans accused Ansem of not understanding fundamentals. Leo Lanza went further, sharply dismissing the analyst’s bearish case on X.

Another user pointed to a 56% drop in the SOL/ETH pair this cycle.

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“Soleth is down 56% after being up 12x+ *this cycle* because one guy decided to buy 5% of the eth supply after it had underperformed all cycle. idk why you guys act like i dont also bearpost solana i havent posted anything bullish about sol in over a year,” Ansem replied.

Not everyone shares the bearish view on Ethereum. BeInCrypto recently highlighted that network activity remains strong, while technical indicators like the Rainbow Chart and MACD are also flashing bullish signals.

With macro and geopolitical uncertainty still in play, the question is whether ETH slides further this year or stages a renewed rally.

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The post Ansem Says Ethereum Is in a Worse Spot Than 2023 as Thesis Weakens appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

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Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

Total value locked on decentralized lending protocol Aave dropped by nearly $8 billion over the weekend after hackers behind the $293 million Kelp DAO exploit borrowed funds on Aave, leaving roughly $195 million in “bad debt” on the protocol and triggering withdrawals.

Data from DeFiLlama shows that Aave’s TVL fell from about $26.4 billion to $18.6 billion by Sunday, losing the top spot as the largest DeFi protocol. 

Aave v3’s lending pools for USDt (USDT) and USDC (USDC) are now at 100% utilization, meaning that more than $5.1 billion worth of stablecoins cannot be withdrawn until new liquidity arrives or borrows are repaid. 

$2,540 is available to be withdrawn from the $2.87 billion USDT pool on Aave v3 at the time of writing. Source: Aave

Aave’s TVL fall shows how rapidly risk from a single security incident can spread throughout the broader, interconnected DeFi lending market, potentially leading to a severe liquidity crisis.

The incident began on Saturday when hackers stole 116,500 Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (rsETH) tokens worth about $293 million from Kelp DAO’s LayerZero-powered bridge and used them as collateral on Aave v3 to borrow wrapped Ether (wETH).

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Crypto analytics platform Lookonchain said the move created about $195 million in “bad debt” on Aave, which contributed to the Aave (AAVE) token tanking nearly 20% from $112 on Saturday at 6:00 pm UTC to $89.5 about 25 hours later. 

Lookonchain noted that some of the largest crypto whales to withdraw funds from Aave were the MEXC crypto exchange and Abraxas Capital at $431 million and $392 million, respectively.

Source: Grvt

Several crypto networks and protocols tied to rsETH or the LayerZero bridge have paused use of the bridge until the problem is resolved, including DeFi platform Curve Finance, stablecoin issuer Ethena and BitGo’s Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC).

Aave has frozen several rsETH, wETH markets

Shortly after the Kelp DAO exploit, Aave said it froze the rsETH markets on both Aave v3 and v4 to prevent any suspicious borrowing and later stated that rsETH on Ethereum mainnet remains fully backed by underlying assets.

WETH reserves also remain frozen on Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, Mantle and Linea, Aave said.

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This incident marks the first significant stress test of Aave’s “Umbrella” security model, which was introduced in June 2025 to provide automated protection against protocol bad debt while enabling users to earn rewards.

Related: Aave DAO backs V4 mainnet plan in near-unanimous vote

Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada found that Aave avoided bad debt in its v3 market by using overcollateralization, automated liquidations and other strategies that shifted risk to borrowers.

In comments to Cointelegraph, Aave defended its liquidation-based model, framing it as a core safety mechanism that protects lenders while limiting downside for borrowers.

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It comes as Aave parted ways with its longest-standing DeFi risk service provider, Chaos Labs, on April 6, following disagreements over the direction of Aave v4 and budget constraints.

Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?